*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)
* National Bank (ETE GA): FinMin targets disposal of 18.4% remaining HFSF stake by year-end
* National Bank (ETE GA) issues new €500m 11.25NC6.25 Tier II notes priced to yield 5.875%, to call €400m existing (8.25% due 2029) similar instruments
* PPC (PPC GA) reportedly in talks with Mytilineos (MYTIL GA) for new solar parks in the Balkans, mulls construction of new headquarters in Athens
* Greece taps debt market, raising €250m at 2.85% through 5-year bond re-opening
ATHEX rebounded yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.02% at 1,417.72 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.12%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.32%, Banks Index: +2.06%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 139.2m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 181.0m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today.
Macro Headlines
Central government budget execution February 2024 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in February 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 1,460m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 101m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 2,308m surplus in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 3,401m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 1,981m and a EUR 4,215 surplus in the same period in 2023.
Comment: In more detail, state budget net revenues in January-February 2024 period shaped at EUR 12,671m, showing an outperformance by EUR 1,593 or 14.4% vs. target. This outperformance was mainly driven by a) the increased tax revenues of EUR 565m, after deducting tax refunds, b) the increased PIB revenues of EUR 732m and c) the collection of EUR 159m from Recovery and Resilience Facility, which was projected to be collected in March 2024. Revenues from taxes stood at EUR 11,401m, beating the target by EUR 950m, mainly due to better performance of the previous year’s taxes collected in installments until the end of February 2024 (income tax of natural and legal persons, ENFIA) as well as the better performance in the collection of the current year’s taxes (VAT, Excise taxes, etc.). On the expenditures front, primary budget expenditures shaped at EUR 11,211m up by EUR 234m above the target.
Industrial Turnover index up by 3.2% in January (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 3.2% y-o-y in January 2024 compared to an increase of 19.8% y-o-y in January 2023 while decreased by 6.5% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the February 2023-January 2024 period dropped by 5.0% y-o-y compared to a 31.9% y-o-y rise in the respective February 2022-January 2023 period.
Sector Headlines
Finance Minister | HFSF to dispose its stakes in banks by year end
The Finance Minister stated on Reuters that HFSF will complete the disposal of its stakes in Greek banks by year end. Recall that HFSF controls a 18.39% stake in National Bank of Greece and a 72.5% stake in Attica Bank.
Bank of Greece to impose new limits on housing loans from 01 January 2025
Bank of Greece decided to impose new limits from 01 January 2025 on housing loans and in specific the maximum LTV is set at 90% for new buyers and the maximum debt service to income at 50%.
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece issued new Tier II bond
National Bank of Greece issued EUR 500m Subordinated Tier II bonds (MREL eligible) with a yield of 5.875% vs. 8.25% in the previous one issued back in 2019. The bond matures in 11.25 years and is callable in 6.25 years. The transaction attracted interest in excess of EUR 1.8bn from more than 140 investors and was oversubscribed 3.6x. We remain positive on the stock with TP of EUR 9.20/share, implying a 23% upside potential.
ADMIE’s 10-years plan
The interconnection of the Aegean islands with the mainland system is an important priority in the 10-year program of ADMIE, which was put to consultation yesterday. The existing RES installation coupled with the projects that secured final connection, amounts to 28GW. This already exceeds the National Plan 2030 and reaches the target of 23.5W of RES capacity in electricity generation.
Aegean Airlines block of 3m shares
According to press reports, the block of 3m shares that was traded at EUR 12.00/sh on Tuesday 19 March was made by the company’s shareholders Panos and Thanasis Laskaridis. Following the transaction, Aegean Airlines Vice Chairman Panos Laskaridis holds 12% of the company while Thanasis Laskaridis’ stake has fallen to 5.2%.
Revoil granded 20 years licence for electricity supply
Revoil announced that RAEWW approved a licence for a supply of electricity with a capacity of 100MW and a duration of 20 years. With this acquisition, REVOIL expands its capabilities in the objective of green transition through its involvement in the field of Renewable Energy Sources. We remind that Revoil operated a photovoltaic park in Evia with a capacity of 1.1Mw, another 13.3Mw are ready to be connected in Arcadia and Thiva and an additional capacity of 12Mw is under construction with a target to operate in 2025.
Alpha Trust Andromeda 2023 results
Net profit came in at EUR 6.40m in 2023 against a net loss of EUR 1.13m in 2022. NAV stood at EUR 29.95m or EUR 8.37/share. The stock is trading at 15% discount to its NAV. Management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a EUR 0.30 dividend per share (DY: 4.2%).
Petropoulos AGM set for 10 April
The company announced that it will hold its Annual General Meeting on Wednesday 10 April and will discuss among others the dividend distribution for FY23.
Good day for ATHEX, with benchmark index gaining 1% and turnover reaching EUR 140m. Banks outperformed, up 2.1%, with Piraeus Bank standing out, up 4.2% and NBG following suit with gains of 2.2%. Another solid trading day for Terna Energy, recording gains of 2.8%, at EUR 18.1/share. Good day also OPAP, up 2.2%. Second day of correction for Sarantis, down 3% after a cumulative rally of 17% last week.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
BANKS
In a press interview, the Minister of Finance mentioned that the government plans to complete the divestment from the banking sector by year end.
We remind that the current mandate of the HFSF is until the end of 2025 and the remaining stakes are NBG (18%) and Attica Bank (72%).
BANKS II
BoG will implement from early 2025 a max LTV at origination of 90% for first time buyers and 80% for other mortgages and a debt service to income of 50% for first time buyers (40% for the remaining).
News is expected and we do not anticipate any impact on credit growth as current criteria are well below the set limits.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH LN. OW>
Bank of Cyprus announced yesterday morning that it obtained ECB approval to pay a cash dividend and to conduct a share buyback program, corresponding to a 30% payout ratio for 2023. The total amount for distribution is EUR 137m, split into a EUR 112m cash dividend (EUR 0.25) and EUR 25m in share buyback.
The total distribution is in line with our estimate of EUR 136.5m and implies a total yield of 8.4% (with the cash dividend yield at 6.8% on yesterday’s close). The news confirms our view that Bank of Cyprus will turn from the ultimate rate play to a strong dividend play in the banking space.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG issued a EUR 500M T2 bond with a maturity of 11.25 years and a yield of 5.875% . The offers reached EUR 1.8bn.
AUSTRIACARD
The company is reporting FY23 numbers today after the close. A conference call is scheduled for Friday, March 22nd 14:00. Conference call dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 946 0800, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632, INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872.
Market Comment // Trading in positive territory throughout Wednesday’s session, the ASE index settled near intraday highs, at 1,417.7 points, recording gains of 1.0%. Trading activity remained at healthy levels, with turnover amounting to €139mn, broadly at par with the 100-day avg. Banks led the rally with Piraeus Bank advancing by 4.2%, followed by NBG (+2.2%) and Alpha Bank (+2.1%). Among non-financials OPAP gained 2.2%, with Motodynamics, Aegean Airlines and BriQ Properties all finishing on 1.6% gains. On the other hand, Profile Systems shed 3.2%, followed by Sarantis (-2.9%), Epsilon Net (-1.5%) and Lamda Development (-1.0%). Today, EU futures point to a positive opening, following Fed officials signal that Fed remains on track for three rate cuts by year end.
National Bank // As part of its MREL strategy, National Bank successfully raised €500mn through placement of a Tier II bond with 11.25 years maturity and callable at 6.25 years. The yield settled at 5.875% while the offers reached over €1.8bn. Concurrently, NBG launched a voluntary cash tender offer for its existing €400mn million Tier 2 note maturing in 2029.
Austriacard // Austriacard is set to report headline FY’23 results today, after the market. We forecast FY’23 top line at €346.5m (+10% vs. FY’22) anticipating organic acceleration from volume growth in cards and document digitization project execution to be boosted by inorganic growth from the addition of the postal business. We eye FY’23 Adj. EBITDA of €46m (+18% yoy) on c1pps higher margins, driven by pricing/mix in cards. We expect this to translate to PBT of €24.5m (vs. €9.1m in 2022) and Net profit of €17.2m (vs. €4.7m, the previous year).
National Bank // According to Capital.gr, the Minister of Finance, Mr. Hatzidakis, highlighted during an interview in Reuters, that the HFSF’s full divestment from the four systemic banks is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, underscoring the substantial interest from investors. Following this, the press report indicates that the likely period for placing the remaining stake in NBG is July 2024.
Austriacard // Mr. Kontos has succeeded Mr. Spyropoulos as Austriacard CEO as of March 20th, following the proposal of the group Supervisory Board dated December 20th. Mr. Kontos previously served as Deputy Group CEO of Austriacard and has been with the group since 2018. He has >25 years of experience as CFO/CEO in the consumer goods industry in the EMEA region.
* Tα παραπάνω σχόλια μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε πρώτοι στο viber του mikrometoxos.gr
ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
