Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (21.02.2025)

Άνοδο κατά 0,23% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. κλείνοντας στις 1617,56 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 127,9 εκ. ευρώ. Οι πωλητές αποπειράθηκαν στο ξεκίνημα να οδηγήσουν το Γ.Δ. σε αρνητικό έδαφος καταγράφοντας από νωρίς το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαμηλό των 1604 μονάδων. Όμως οι αγοραστές, με οδηγό δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους (Πειραιώς, ΟΠΑΠ, ΟΤΕ, ΕΛΧΑ) αντεπιτέθηκαν και σταδιακά οδήγησαν το ΓΔ σε θετικό έδαφος μέχρι τις δημοπρασίες οπότε καταγράφηκε κλείσιμο στο υψηλό σχεδόν της ημέρας. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,383%, ενώ οι ευρωπαϊκές αγορές κινούνταν με νευρικότητα. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+0,30%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με την Πειραιώς (+1,45%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε ο ΟΠΑΠ (+2,60%), η Optima (+1,15%), η Lamda (+1,16%), ο Σαράντης (+1,75%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+3,57%), η Βιοχάλκο (+0,52%), η Aegean (+0,72%), ο ΟΤΕ (+1,07%) και η Αττικής (+0,70%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΕΥΔΑΠ (-0,95%), ο Μυτιληναίος (-0,98%), το ΔΑΑ (+0,28%), η ΕΕΕ (-0,65%) και τα ΕΛΠΕ (-0,12%). Απολογιστικά, 67 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 38 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Λήγουν σήμερα οι σειρές παραγώγων του δείκτη FTSE για το τρέχοντα μήνα. Η διόρθωση του Γ.Δ. τερμάτισε, προσωρινά ενδεχομένως, στις 1604 μονάδες, απ’ όπου και αντέδρασε ανοδικά. Πλησιέστερη στήριξη στις 1590 μονάδες και αντίσταση στις 1625-1630 μονάδες. Το έκτακτο μέρισμα ύψους €63,5 εκ. ή 0,4667 Ευρώ ανά μετοχή που αποφάσισε το Δ.Σ. της Jumbo, μπορεί να αποτελέσει τον καταλύτη για ανοδική κίνηση στην τελευταία συνεδρίαση της εβδομάδος ώστε να ολοκληρωθεί και η 9η συνεχόμενη ανοδική εβδομάδα στο Χ.Α.

Παπουτσάνης: Από ΑΠΕ το σύνολο της Η.Ε. για τη μονάδα της Ριτσώνας. Ολοκληρώνοντας την εγκατάσταση δύο Φ/Β σταθμών στην καθετοποιημένη μονάδα στη Ριτσώνα, το 100% της απαιτούμενης Η.Ε. για τη λειτουργία του εργοστασίου προέρχεται πλέον από ΑΠΕ.

Intralot: Νέα σύμβαση με την Πολιτεία της Νεμπράσκα. Η πενταετής σύμβαση αφορά στην παροχή συστήματος εποπτείας και αναφορών σε πραγματικό χρόνο για παιγνιομηχανές Cash Devices.

Metlen: Ο Κύκλος Εργασιών αυξήθηκε στα €5.683 εκατ., σε σύγκριση με €5.492 εκατ. το 2023. 7% αύξηση του EBITDA. €615 εκατ. Καθαρά Κέρδη έναντι €623 εκατ. το 2023. Προτεινόμενο μέρισμα €1,50 ανά μετοχή.

Τουριστική επένδυση στη Μήλο προχωρά η Prodea, για την επέκταση του 5άστερου White Coast Pool Suites. Ανάδοχος η ΤΕΡΝΑ.

Αυξημένος 5,7% ο τζίρος της ελληνικής βιομηχανίας το Δεκέμβριο.

Ιανουάριος: +12,4% η επιβατική κίνηση στα 39 ελληνικά αεροδρόμια.

Το 2024, το έλλειμμα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών αυξήθηκε κατά €1,2 δισ. σε σχέση με το 2023 και διαμορφώθηκε σε €15,1 δισ. Στα €35,7 δις. το εμπορικό έλλειμα από €33 δις. το 2023 (στα €84,7 δις. οι εισαγωγές, στα €48,6 δις. οι εξαγωγές). Στα €22,7 δις. το πλεόνασμα υπηρεσιών από €21,8 δις. το 2023 με τις ταξιδιωτικές εισπράξεις στα €21,7 δις. από €20,6 δις. το 2023.

ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.23% at 1,617.56 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.27%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.80%, Banks Index: +0.30%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 124.4m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 150.8m. We expect the market to consolidate today, with Metlen and Jumbo in focus.

 Macro Headlines

Current account deficit widens in December (BoG)

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in December 2024 recorded a deficit of 3,602m, vs. a deficit of 2,918m in the same period a year ago, due to the deterioration of the secondary income (it is noted that the secondary income account in December 2023 had seen the disbursement of the third tranche by the RRF), which more than offset the improvement of the services and the goods balance. Additionally, in 2024, the current account deficit widened by EUR 1,195m and stood at EUR 15,126m. Finally, travel receipts in December 2024 stood at EUR 435m, up by 33.3% y-o-y, while in the Jan-December 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 5.4% y-o-y to EUR 21,702m.

Comment: the 33.3% higher travel receipts during the month imply the extension of the Greek tourism season, and were driven by the increased by 15.3% international tourist flows during the month, and to the c.15% higher spending per traveller during the month. However, current account deficit widened by 8.6% y-o-y in 2024, reaching c. 6.6% of GDP (from 6.1% in 2023), above the 4.0% excessive deficit threshold according to IMF, due to the deterioration of the goods basket, on lower y-o-y exports and higher y-o-y imports.

Industrial Turnover index up by 5.7% in December (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 5.7% y-o-y in December 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.5% y-o-y in December 2023 while increased by 4.3% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the January 2024-December 2024 period increased by 2.0% y-o-y compared to a 3.6% y-o-y decrease in the respective January 2023-December 2023 period.

Company Headlines

METLEN (Mytilineos) || BUY | CP: EUR 36.34 | TP: EUR 49.00

4Q/FY24 Results Review | MYTILINEOS delivers the Annual EBITDA guidance; Declares EUR 1.50/share dividend; CC Highlights: Guides for 2028e EBITDA at EUR >2bn, London Listing in 3Q25e, to hold a capital markets day on 18 April with announcements of new corporate actions

METLEN released yesterday its 4Q/FY24 results, with 4Q24 group turnover at EUR 1.480m (+5.4% YoY), EBITDA of EUR 317m (+8.9% YoY, 2.6% above Optima) and Net income of EUR 133m (-17.4% YoY, -9.5% below Optima, due to increased depreciation charges and financial expenses). Regarding Leverage, Net Debt at 2024-end stood at EUR 1,776m, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.7x, adjusted for non-recourse debt). In FY24 terms METLEN reported Revenues of EUR 5.7bn, EBITDA at EUR 1,080m in a EUR 753/297m energy/metals split, and Net profits at EUR 615m. Following the strong profitability, METLEN declared dividend for FY24 at EUR 1.50/share (vs. our 1.54/share estimate).

Below is an analysis per division for FY24:

• Energy: The unit registered marginal increase in revenue (+3% y-o-y to EUR 4,572m) representing 81% of the Company’s total turnover, while EBITDA dropped marginally by -1.7% YoY to EUR 753m), due to the significant drop of the Natural Gas & LNG supply & trading Business Unit, which contributed EUR 57m EBITDA (from EUR 192m in 2023), and the weaker contribution from M Power projects of EUR 39m (from EUR 97m in 2023). On the other Hand, Renewables Business Unit continued growing at a fast pace, with segmental EBITDA at 349m (from EUR 240m last year) and the Electricity Busines (both generations & Supply) generated EUR 308m EBITDA, from EUR 237m last year. With respect to Renewables, operational portfolio recorded dynamic expansion, reaching the 1.4GW of installed capacity by the end of the year, surpassing the 1 GW milestone for the first time. Overall, METLEN’s global portfolio exceeded the 11.1 GW, marking a total increase of c.0.6 GW compared to the beginning of the year. The portfolio incorporates 4.9GW of operational and mature stage of development projects, as well as 6.2GW of projects in early stages of development. Finally, with regards to M Power projects sub sector, the backlog of contracted projects in 2024-end amounted to EUR 1.1bn, an activity which is expected to grow significantly, while the resources of the European Recovery Fund offer further growth prospects, with Greece being the country that receives the highest funding as a percentage of GDP.
• Metals: Following the correction in 2023, average Aluninium’s price (LME 3M) rose by 7.16% y-o-y in 2024 to $ 2,456/tn, and more importantly, Aluminum billet premia showed a significant increase, from the $350/tn level, at the beginning of 2024, to $550/tn at the end of the year. Supported by the stronger pricing environment in 2024, Mytilineos reported Metals sales down by 9% y-o-y to 857m, while EBITDA was up by 19.7% to EUR 297m in 2024.
• Construction/concessions): Regarding the construction activity, segmental EBITDA contribution in 2024 amounted to EUR 50m compared to EUR 18m in 2023. At the end of 2023, the backlog of infrastructure projects in progress exceeds EUR 1bn, while including projects that are in an advanced stage of contracting, it reaches EUR 1.4bn. The prospects for the construction industry in Greece is positive, especially for concession and Public & Private Partnerships (PPP), in which the Infrastructure Sector (METKA ATE and M Concessions) aspires to play a leading role.

Conference call Highlights: a) will hold a Capital Markets day in London on April 18 to present the next day for the Company, b) guides for 2028e EBITDA at > EUR 2bn, without any M&As and with lighter capex needs going forward compared to 2024! c) will announce two new corporate actions (M&As?) during the upcoming capital markets day, d) new investments to underpin growth in the medium term d) expects lower net debt and financial expenses in 2025e, e) expects higher RES sales going forward than the 1GW during 2024, f) expects the listing in London to take place in 3Q25e

Comment: All in, METLEN delivered its financial guidance for 2024 (EBITDA of EUR 1-1.2bn, Net Profits at EUR 600-700m), despite the adverse business environment in the LNG trading and the M Power projects units, leveraging on its differentiated business model. Taking into account the positive outlook FOR 2025e and also in the medium term, the new investment in the Metals segment (which will increase Alumina capacity by 50% and will launch Gallium production from 2027 onwards), the attractive valuation (METLEN currently trades at a 6.6x EV/EBITDA and 7.6x P/E for 2025e) and the expected listing of the stock under London’s FTSE 100 we reiterate our Buy recommendation for the stock, with the Target Price at EUR 49.0/share.

Piraeus Financial Holdings | CP: EUR 4.7480 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 6.20

A soft quarter on one-offs but Piraeus to deliver FY target, focus on new BP 25-28

4Q24 results preview | Piraeus Financial Holdings is scheduled to release 4Q24 results and the new Business Plan over 2025-2028 on Monday 24 February, before the opening of ATHEX and management will host a conference call on the same day at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time. We anticipate a softer bottom-line q-o-q, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 137.1m, of which EUR 79.3m for VSS and school contribution as well as an NPE clean-up cost of EUR 57.9m, bringing the NPE ratio down to 2.9%, in line with Spanish banks. Balance sheet dynamics are expected to be in line with system trends, i.e., higher performing loans due to strong NCE and deposit balances.

2024 results | We forecast that reported net profit will reach EUR 1.03bn (+31% y-o-y), despite one-off costs of EUR 95.0m (VSS, school contribution) and NPE clean-up costs of EUR 70.0m. We expect NII to shape at EUR 2.1bn (+5% y-o-y) and fee income at EUR 639.6m (+17% y-o-y). We also expect OpEx to rise by 7% y-o-y, on higher one-off costs (+67% y-o-y), whilst LLPs to tumble by 51% y-o-y. Hence, we estimate that reported net profit will reach EUR 1.03bn (+31% y-o-y) and normalized EPS adj. for AT1 cpn (excluding one-off items) will reach EUR 0.91, in line with management guidance on 01 November of EUR >0.90. Finally, we estimate that the remuneration to shareholders will accelerate to EUR 0.289/share vs. EUR 0.063/share in 2023, implying a gross yield of 6.2%.

4Q24 results | We project that reported net profit will reach EUR 149.9m (-53% q-o-q, -29% y-o-y) in 4Q24, lower than median consensus estimate of EUR 161.0m, on lower non-core revenues.  We estimate NII to shape at EUR 525.6m (-1% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 525.0m. We also forecast fee income to reach EUR 159.2m (+2% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), thanks to better market conditions and NCE. We also expect non-core revenues of just EUR 3.7m in the quarter. All in all, we estimate top line to reach EUR 688.5m (-3% q-o-q, -5% y-o-y). On the cost side, we assess that OpEx will increase by 48% q-o-q to EUR 306.8m, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 79.3m (VSS, school contribution). Thus, we expect PPI to reach EUR 381.7m (-24% q-o-q, -17% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 119.0m (+130% q-o-q, +14% y-o-y).

Optima view | We believe that investors will focus on the new business plan over 2025-2028. The stock is trading 0.79x P/TBV25E, at 31% discount to European banks and 11% discount to its Greek peers, which is not justified in our view, given its high RoaTBV profile. Piraeus is our top pick in the sector.

The ASE index finished little changed on Thursday, with mixed performance across sectors and turnover standing at c.EUR 101m. The banking index finished flattish, with Piraeus Bank outperforming up 1.4%, whereas NBG, Eurobank and Alpha Bank hovered around the flatline. On market’s top performers, Sarantis was up 2%, OPAP rose 1.7%, Lamda and OTE both posted 1% gains, with Jumbo, Cenergy and PPC flattish. On red, Metlen lost 0.8%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

According to BoG, the current account deficit amounted to EUR 15.1bn in 2024, compared to EUR 13.9bn in 2023. The increase was driven by a deterioration in the goods deficit with the goods deficit excluding oil products and ships at EUR 27.9bn vs EUR 25.8bn in 2023.

METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>

Conference call highlights: 1) Dual listing expected to be completed by 3Q25 2) net financing should rationalize in 2025, with management maintaining a net debt (excl. non-recourse)/EBITDA of below 2.0x 3) CMD to take place in London at the end of April 4) as part of guidance that will be given in detail in April, Metlen targets EBITDA of EUR 2.0bn by 2028, without the upside of any incremental profitability from potential M&A transactions. 

JUMBO <BELA GA, OW>

Jumbo announced extraordinary cash distribution of EUR 0.466/share (EUR 0.47/share adj. for current treasure shares, subject to share buyback up to record date), subject to EGM approval on March 19^th, payable on March 31^st. As of February 20^th, Jumbo holds 1.20% stake (c.1.63m shares), acquired under a share buyback program launched in Sept’24 (buyback price range EUR 1-27/share)

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

Piraeus is due to report 4Q24 numbers and business plan targets (2025-28) on Monday, February 24, before the market. A conference call will take place on the same date at 14:00 local time (13:00 CET). Dial in numbers for Greek participants +30 210 94 60 800, for UK participants +44 (0) 800 368 1063, for UK & International +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants +1 516 447 563.

We expect a reported net profit for 4Q24 of EUR 155m (consensus at EUR 161m), leading to a reported net profit of EUR 1,038m for 2024E. In 4Q24 we anticipate Piraeus to book non-recuring expenses of EUR 200m related to a VRS plan (c.EUR 40m on our numbers), the school renovation program (EUR 25m) and NPE /NPA clean up (c.EUR 135m). In terms of core trends, we forecast very strong underlying profitability with a marginal decline in NII (-0.6% to EUR 525m driven by higher lending growth), solid fee growth and low c.55bps normalized COR. Key focus is on the medium term targets and recuring profitability and ROTE on normalized rates.

ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, OW>

AIA will announce a flash note on FY24 results on Monday before the market opens. A conference call on the results and strategy update will be hosted on Tuesday. We expect the company to report FY24 revenues of EUR 665.7m (+10% yoy), adjusted EBITDA of EUR 419.4m (+14% yoy) and net profits of EUR 242.3m (+5% yoy). We expect the management to propose a payout ratio of 100% i.e. a DPS of EUR 0.81, implying a yield of 9.6% on yesterday’s close.  

INTRALOT <INLOT GA,OW>

Intralot announced that its US subsidiary signed a contract with the Charitable Gaming Division of the Nebraska Department of Revenue for the provision of a real-time monitoring and reporting system services for Cash Devices across the state. The contract duration is set at 5 years and includes a renewal option for 4 additional 2-year periods.

PAPOUTSANIS <PAP GA>

Papoutsanis announced the completion of the installation of a photovoltaic system in its manufacturing plant in Ritsona, allowing the company to meet 100% of its plant’s electricity requirements through renewable energy sources.

Market Comment // The Greek market opened in the red yesterday but gradually gained momentum, closing 0.23% higher near its intraday high at 1,617.6 points. Trading activity weakened compared to Wednesday, with turnover dropping to €124mn, 9% below the YTD average of €136mn. Among the top gainers, Elvalhalcor stood out rallying 3.6%, followed by OPAP (+2.6%), Kri-Kri (+2.2%), and Fourlis (+2.0%), while Sarantis (+1.8%), Piraeus Bank (+1.5%), Piraeus Port Authority (+1.4%), Lamda (+1.2%), Optima (+1.2%), and ADMIE Holding (+1.1%) also posted gains above 1%. On the losing side, Dimand fell 1.8%, followed by EYDAP and Metlen (-1.0%), while Bank of Cyprus declined 0.7%. Today, EU markets are set for a slightly negative opening, as investors are wary about the prospects of a fast resolution to the Ukraine situation.

Piraeus Bank // Piraeus will report Q4 2024 earnings on Monday, before market opening, followed by a conference call at 12:00 UK (14:00 GR). We estimate adjusted net profit to decline to €282mn (vs. consensus of €291mn) from €320mn in Q3, primarily driven by the drop in NII due to rate cuts and lower non-core income. However, strong volume growth provides a solid offset, while resilient fee generation and improved asset quality further underpin earnings. As a result, we project adjusted RoTE at 15.8% for Q4 (adjusted for AT1) and 17.4% for FY’24, exceeding the FY’24 guidance of 17.0%.

Metlen // The Group hosted a positive conference call following the release of its FY’24 results, during which the Chairman and CEO announced a Capital Markets Day in London on 28th April 2025, to present the Group’s business plan through 2028. Management also confirmed that the LSE listing remains on track, with completion expected by early Q3 2025. Additionally, the CEO hinted at two significant corporate actions to be unveiled at the CMD and indicated that the 2028 EBITDA target will exceed €2bn (nearly double the 2024 level) excluding potential M&A activity.

Jumbo // Jumbo has called an AGM to approve the distribution of a special dividend of 0.47 € per share. This translates to a yield of 1.7% percent and is in sync with our line of thinking, I.e. that Jumbo has a dividend paying capacity of at least €1.5 per share annually.

AIA // AIA is set to release FY’24 results on Monday, February 24th, pre market open. We anticipate that the stronger than we had anticipated 2024 traffic inflows +13% yoy (+7% domestic, +16% international) should translate to greater overearning for 2024 than reflected in our numbers. Our estimates call for FY’24 revenues at €622m (+10% yoy) and adj. EBITDA at €412m (+9% vs. FY’23), with upside risk given the faster exhaustion of the carry forward balance. With this in mind, we believe net income is likely to shape above our €223m estimate, corresponding to a DPS in the €0.75-0.80 area (>9% yield). Key at the conference call will be the tariff path in 2025-26 in the light of the faster consumption of the regulatory deficit.

FTSE // Semi-annual review of FTSE Global Equity indices to be announced today after market, with any changes effective at the close of Friday 21st March; as a reminder currently there are 29 Greek constituents in the FTSE All-World Index.