Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (21.02.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr)

Άνοδο κατά 0,14% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1424,35 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 117,4 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αψιµαχίες µεταξύ αγοραστών και πωλητών οδήγησαν σε µεταβλητότητα µε το Γ.∆. να εναλλάσσει το πρόσηµο του µέχρι τις 2µµ περίπου. Στη συνέχεια ωστόσο, οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν την υπεροπλία οδηγώντας το Γ.∆. σε θετικό έδαφος όπου και παρέµεινε ως τις δηµοπρασίες. Με οδηγούς δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους, όπως η Τενέργα εν µέσω φηµών για επικείµενο deal, ο Τιτάν λόγω εξαιρετικών αποτελεσµάτων και ο ΟΤΕ. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,319%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+0,10%) κατέγραψε µικρά κέρδη µε την Alpha (+0,61%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε η Τενέργα (+4,70%), ο Τιτάν (+3,41%), ο ΟΤΕ (+1,65%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+0,97%), η ∆ΕΗ (+0,67%) αλλά και η Epsilon Net (+5,73%) µε τη ΒΙΣ (9,92%) από τη µικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (-2,64%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (1,64%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-0,82%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-1,31%), η Cenergy (-0,98%), η Βιοχάλκο (-0,82%), η Autohellas (-1,88%) αλλά και ο ΟΛΠ (-1,61%) µε την ΕΧΑΕ (-3,18%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 49 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 55 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. H αναφορά του συµβούλου του Πρωθυπουργού για στόχο επιστροφής του Χ.Α. στις ανεπτυγµένες αγορές το 2025 µε φετινή ωστόσο ανακοίνωση, συνεισφέρει στη διατήρηση του ανοδικού momentum υποβοηθώντας την είσοδο φρέσκου χρήµατος. Το βράδυ, η Federal ανακοινώνει τα πρακτικά της τελευταίας συνεδρίασης.

Τιτάν: Με ρεκόρ κερδών το 2023, άνω των 535 εκατ. ευρώ τα EBITD (σε σύγκριση µε €331 εκατ. το 2022). Σε επίπεδα άνω των 2,5 δισ. ευρώ διαµορφώθηκε ο κύκλος εργασιών της εισηγµένης, ξεπερνώντας τις εκτιµήσεις. Τα καθαρά κέρδη υπερδιπλασιάστηκαν, υπερβαίνοντας τα 265 εκατ. ευρώ.

Στον «Ηρακλή» εντάχθηκε το Frontier II της Εθνικής. Η συναλλαγή αφορά την τιτλοποίηση χαρτοφυλακίου µη-εξυπηρετούµενων ανοιγµάτων συνολικής λογιστικής αξίας ~€1δις. Η τράπεζα διακρατεί το 100% των senior οµολογιών καθώς και το 5% των Mezzanine και Junior τίτλων, ενώ το 95% διατίθεται σε επενδυτικά κεφάλαια υπό τη διαχείριση της Bracebridge Capital.

Intalot: Η διάθεση του τίτλου ξεκινά σήµερα και θα ολοκληρωθεί την Παρασκευή. Εύρος απόδοσης 6-6,4% για το πενταετές οµόλογο. ∆ιεκδικεί έως έξι νέα συµβόλαια στις ΗΠΑ, ποντάρει και στα VLTs.
Euroxx: σύσταση equalweight και τιµή-στόχο στα 6,5 ευρώ για τη µετοχή της Ελληνικά Χρηµατιστήρια. Έχει ενδιαφέρον η µακροπρόθεσµη προοπτική της ΕΧΑΕ µε ισχυρή λειτουργική µόχλευση, προοπτική νέων εισαγωγών µετοχών και µε καταλύτη τη αναβάθµιση στις ανεπτυγµένες αγορές από τον MSCI.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Πτώση 4,1% του τζίρου στη βιοµηχανία το 2023 έναντι του 2022.

∆ΝΤ: Μεγάλη µείωση της µαύρης οικονοµίας στην Ελλάδα. Στο 16% του ΑΕΠ συρρικνώθηκε η παραοικονοµία στην Ελλάδα το 2021 από 30% στο απόγειο της κρίσης χρέους. Το 2023, το έλλειµµα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών µειώθηκε κατά 7,1 δισ. ευρώ σε σχέση µε το 2022 και διαµορφώθηκε σε 14,1 δισ. ευρώ. Το έλλειµµα του ισοζυγίου αγαθών περιορίστηκε, καθώς η µείωση των εισαγωγών υπερέβη αυτή των εξαγωγών. Το πλεόνασµα του ισοζυγίου υπηρεσιών διευρύνθηκε. Οι τουριστικές εισπράξεις έφτασαν τα 20,459 δισ. ευρώ ή 2,28 δισ. περισσότερα από το προ πανδηµίας 2019, + 12,5%. Το 2022 τα τουριστικά έσοδα ήταν µόλις 17,6 δισ. ευρώ.

*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr)

* Greece’s 2023 current account deficit shrinks 33% yoy to €14.1bn, helped by lower trade/fuels deficits and stronger tourism: 6.3% of GDP vs 10.3% last year

* National Bank (ETE GA) completes €1bn Frontier II securitisation: 25bps capital accretion

* OTE (HTO GA) 4Q/FY 2023 EBITDA seen +4.1%/-0.1 y-o-y to €346m/€1,347m; all eyes on 2024 capex/shareholder distribution guidance

* Titan Cement (TITC GA) pre-announces strong FY2023 results

* PPC (PPC GA) says no discussion/agreement for buying third-largest domestic telco Nova

* Motor Oil’s (MOH GA) JV with EDPR cleared to go ahead with new 500MW wind farm in central Greece

* Coca-Cola Hellenic (EEE GA) raises €600m through a 4-year bond priced at 3.375%

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX headed north yesterday, for 3rd session in a row, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.14% at a 13-year high of 1,424.35 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +0.05%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.44%, Banks Index: +0.10%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 116.3m, up from Monday’s EUR 86.9m. We expect ATHEX to try to digest recent gains today, with some profit taking in place.

Current account deficit narrows in December (BoG)

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in December 2023 recorded a deficit of 2,248m, vs. a deficit of 2,707.8m in the same period a year ago, with the decrease owing to the improvement in the balance of goods and services and the secondary income account, which more than offset the deterioration in the primary income account. Additionally, in the January – December 2023 period, the current account deficit narrowed by 7.09bn or 33% y-o-y and stood at 14.1bn. Finally, travel receipts in December 2023 stood at EUR 344.2m, up by 41.5% y-o-y, (16.9% up vs December 2019), while in the Jan-Dec 2023 period, travel receipts rose by 15.7% y-o-y to EUR 20,460m (12.5% higher compared to the respective period in 2019).

Industrial Turnover index down by 7.2% in December (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) dropped by 7.2% y-o-y in December 2023 compared to an increase of 16.7% y-o-y in December 2022 while decreased by 6.3% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the January 2023-December 2023 period dropped by 4.1% y-o-y compared to a 33.1% y-o-y rise in the respective January 2022-December 2022 period.

Company Headlines

HFSF to dispose its 27.0% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings-Press

The Hellenic government intends HFSF to dispose its 27.0% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings, given the strong demand from investors. The same reports suggest that the disposal process will take place between 04 and 06 March. 

National Bank of Greece completed Frontier II transaction

National Bank of Greece announced the completion of the Frontier II transaction, which involves the securitization of a portfolio of NPEs with a total gross book value of EUR ca1.0bn, following the receipt of all necessary approvals, including the provision of the State guarantee on the Senior notes, under the Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme. NBG retains 100% of the Senior notes and 5% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes, selling 95% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes to funds managed by Bracebridge Capital, LLC. The news is positive and expected. We are Buyers on the stock with TP of EUR 9.20/share.

Titan releases FY23 Trading Update-strong Results above our recent Update report

Titan Cement released yesterday its preliminary FY23 Results, ahead of the official release date on13 March. In a snap:

  • Sales are expected to exceed EUR 2.54bn, vs. our EUR 2.5bn estimate
  • EBITDA are expected to shape at EUR 535m, (from EUR 331m in 2022), 4% above our recent estimate of EUR 513.5m
  • Net profits are expected to more than double y-o-y to EUR 235m, beating our forecast by 9%
  • The Group’s net debt at the end of 2023 closed at EUR 660m (Optima at EUR 676m), down by EUR 137m y-o-y.

In our view, the strong results and the positive outlook for 2024e, will further support the stock. We reiterate our recent TP at EUR 33.9/share, with a Buy recommendation.

Mytilineos’ annual working lunch for Analysts

Mytilineos held yesterday the annual working lunch for Analysts, during which the Company’s Strategy was extensively discussed. Key topics discussed were among others:

  1. a)Mytilineos is focusing in expanding its presence in the electricity distribution business, which is expected to boom in the following years. In this context, Mytilineos is currently exploring potential M&As in the business
  2. b)Expects electricity prices to further deescalate in the future, driven by RES additions, new CCGTs and also lower Natural Gas & CO2 costs. In response to potential margin contraction and increased competition, the Company is planning to expand its energy activities in central Europe, by increasing its natural gas supply network in Europe, or even by developing a new CCGT somewhere in Central Europe (Germany among the candidate countries)
  3. c)Acquisition of Bauxite mine in Ghana is important for future security of supply, as world bauxite reserves are declining and prices are increasing

OTE 3Q23 Results Preview | CP EUR 14.16, TP: EUR 15.00, Upside: 5.9%

Sequential improvement in 4Q23, focus on guidance 

2023 results preview | OTE is set to release 4Q/FY2023 results on Thursday 22 February, before the opening of the market and management will host a conference call on the same day at 17:00 Athens/ 15:00 London Time. We expect a sequential improvement on top line thanks to Greece and a double-digit bottom line growth on cost containment and lower tax rate.

FY results | We project FY2023 group revenues of EUR of EUR 3,451m (-0.1% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate, adj. EBITDA after leases of EUR 1,339m (-0.7% y-o-y), and the respective margin to squeeze marginally by 20bp to 38.8% in 2023 vs. 39.0% in 2022. We also expect net profit for the year to shape at EUR 513.0m (+32% y-o-y), 4% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 533.0m. On the cost side, we expect OpEx to remain flat at EUR 2,079m and lower VES cost (-9% y-o-y). We have also assumed: a) depreciation expenses of EUR 671.6m (-16% y-o-y), b) net financial expenses of EUR 29.8m and the effective tax rate at 25% vs. 30% in 2022. Finally, we estimate a dividend of EUR 0.64/share (+8% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 0.67 per share, implying a gross dividend yield of 4.6%.

Greece | We forecast a marginal increase of 0.5% y-o-y in top line, driven by the mobile business (+2% y-o-y) and ICT revenues (+14% y-o-y). Thus, we project revenues of EUR 3,170m and adj. EBITDA (AL) of EUR 1,323m (+1.0% y-o-y), pointing to a profitability margin of 41.7% (+20bp y-o-y).

Romania | On the other side, we project revenues to post a 6% y-o-y drop to EUR 286.7m, on the back of lower mobile service revenues (-7% y-o-y) and adj. EBITDA (AL) of EUR 19.3m (-49% y-o-y), pointing to a profitability margin of 6.7% vs. 12.4% in 2022.

4Q23 results | We project 4Q23 group revenues of EUR 912.7m (+3% y-o-y), adj. EBITDA after leases of EUR 331.8m (+2% y-o-y) and net profit of EUR 115.8m against a net loss of EUR 7.8m in 4Q22.

Optima view | We anticipate investors to focus on the dividend for fiscal 2023 and on 2024 guidance (CapEx, FCF) and remuneration policy. On top of that, we expect management to give more colour on the latest developments about the disposal of 100% subsidiary Telekom Romania Mobile. We remind that the company announced on 21 November 2023 that it has negotiating with Quantum Projects Group and the two parties have signed a MoU, in order to facilitate the process and have filed for approval with the Romanian competent authorities. We anticipate the company to distribute an extra dividend in case of the successful disposal of TKRM. Despite the recent rally, OTE is trading 4.65x EV/EBITDA24e, at a material 28% discount vs. EU telcos. Following the announcement of 2023 results, we’ll update our forecasts and Target Price.

PPC meets Scope 1 emissions targets for 2023 (press)

According to Kathimerini, PPC is expected to have met the Scope 1 emissions target for the financial year 2023, hence avoiding the triggering of the 50bps interest penalty on its EUR 775m sustainability-linked bond maturing in 2026. On the other hand, PPC failed to meet the emission reduction target of 57% for the sustainability bond maturing in 2028, which will burden the company with an additional interest cost of c. EUR 2m for the said bond.

AVAX declared concessionaire for a EUR 310m motorway contract (press)

According to Naftemporiki.gr, AVAX was declared by the Ministry for infrastructure temporary concessionaire for the construction of the Ioannina-Kakavia Motorway, which is budgeted at EUR 310m, offering the larger discount (17.5%) against GEKTERNA’s offer of 16.5%.

GEKTERNA close to reach an agreement with the Abu Dhabi fund for the sale of Terna Energy (press)

According to Radar.gr, GEKTERNA and Mr. Peristeris are close to reach an agreement with the Arab fund of Abu Dhabi to sell their stakes in Terna Energy at a price of EUR 19-20/share. As per the same press report, the agreement is imminent, and could be announced by 15 March.

Intralot | Public offering of the bond commences today

The public offering of the common 5yr bond loan of up to EUR 130m commences today and will be completed on Friday 23 February. The bonds will commence trading in the Fixed Income Securities market of ATHEX on 28 February. The yield range of the common bond was set between 6.0% and 6.4%.

Entersoft | EGM approved share buyback program

The EGM of shareholders approved a share buyback program of up to 600.000 shares (2% of share capital) at a minimum price of EUR 2.00/share and a maximum of EUR 12.0/share. The program has a duration of two years (up to 20 February 2026). Recall that the company will announce FY2023 results on Thursday 29 February.

Autohellas Financial Calendar 2024

The company is set to report FY23 results on Tuesday 7 March, the AGM will take place on Thursday 18 April and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Monday 22 April.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The ASE benchmark index ended the day marginally up on slightly higher turnover (EUR 116m vs. EUR 110m YTD). A rather dull day for the banking sector with the focus yesterday on Titan (+3.4%) after the positive trading update and Terna Energy (+4.7%).

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

The trade deficit in December dropped by EUR 460m to EUR 2.2bn. Overall in 2023 the C/A deficit in 2023 dropped by EUR 7.1bn compared to 2022 to EUR 14.1bn driven by the reduction in commodity prices and strong tourism receipts. Income from tourism arrivals reached EUR 20.46bn in 2023, an increase of 12.5% on a yoy basis.

NBG <ETE GA, OW>

NBG announced the completion of Frontier II, a EUR 1bn securitization under Hercules.

News is expected.

TITAN CEMENT <TITC GA, OW>

Titan Cement announced a trading update ahead of FY23 results on March 13.  For 2023 the company expects sales to exceed EUR 2,540m, EBITDA to rise above EUR 535m and net profit to more than double year on year, exceeding EUR 265m. Earnings per share (EPS) are subsequently expected to grow above EUR 3.4/share. The Group’s net debt at the end of 2023 closed at EUR 660m and the Net Debt to EBITDA leverage ratio is expected to drop to ca. 1.2x.

The numbers are ahead of our forecasts (Sales of EUR 2,520m, EBITDA of EUR 523m and net profit of EUR 257m (EPS of EUR 3.46). Our net debt forecast stood at EUR 720m with the net debt to EBITDA of 1.4x. The numbers indicate a very strong fourth quarter in 2023 with solid free cash flow generation. Trading update confirms our strong conviction on Titan Cement which trades at <5x EV/EBITDA on 2024E and substantial discount to peers.

HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>

Hellenic Telecom is due to report 4Q23 numbers tomorrow before the market opens. According to Bloomberg consensus, FY23 EBITDA is forecasted at EUR 1,370m with the net profit at EUR 530m The consensus DPS stands at EUR 0.66.  The management will host a conference call also tomorrow at 16:00 Greek time.

INTRALOT <INLOT GA>

The yield on the 5 year EUR 130m retail bond was set at 6.0% to 6.4%.

AUTOHELLAS <OTOEL GA, OW>

The company will report FY23 results on March 7. The management will host a conference call on March 20. The AGM will take place on April 18 and the stock will trade ex-dividend on April 22.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // In a volatile session on Tuesday the ASE Index maintained its positive sign at the closing (+0.14%), having traded within a tight range of -0.43% to +0.18%. Turnover picked up again to €115m, just below the 100-d moving average of €117.5m. Banks managed to reverse early losses, with the sector index finishing +0.1 higher%, led by a +0.6% gain in Alpha (with Piraeus and NBG ending flattish). Terna Energy (+4.7%) and Titan (+3.41%) stood out among blue chips recording significant gains, as did small cap tech stocks Epsilon Net (+5.93%), Profile (+3.18%) and Entersoft (+2.07%). On the negative side, EXAE, Intralot and MOH dropped more than 2%, trailed by losses of >1% in Autohellas, OPAP, PPA, Ideal, ELHA, Ellaktor and Lamda. EU futures point to a mildly positive opening today, ahead of what is likely to be a volatile day as traders await Nvidia results and Fed minutes.

OTE // Q4/FY23 results tomorrow 22nd Feb pre-market open. We expect EBITDAaL to finally inflect in Q4 given the easy comps (EEe €341m, +2.7% yoy following -1.5% in 9M), but all eyes will be on the shareholder remuneration policy. Following €425m announced in 2023 (following €500m distributed in 2022), we argue that anything below €450m in terms of shareholder returns is not likely to support a further re-rating of the shares. We caveat that the focus will be on total returns (EEe €1.15) rather than the dividend per se (EE €0.60).

Mytilineos // At the analyst meeting hosted yesterday, mgmt outlined futured prospects focusing on the challenges posed by the energy transition, the benefits of scaling operations, and the potential of grid development projects. Mgt also stressed the significant synergies within the Group. Although the CEO refrained from offering specific guidance for FY’24, he voiced confidence in the sustainability of profitability. Further details on the outlook and guidance will be provided at the Group’s AGM in June.

Piraeus Bank // Another press report today suggests that the govt is leaning towards the full disposal of its 27% stake in Piraeus. The process is likely to commence on 4th March and to conclude on 6th March.

Titan Cement // Titan released its preliminary FY’23 results through a trading update, with the reported figures landing in-line with our estimates. Titan delivered a robust financial performance in FY’23, with revenue climbing 11% yoy, reaching €2.5bn, on account of strong demand in key markets coupled with robust pricing. EBITDA surged 62% yoy settling at €535mn, propelled by operational efficiencies, cost-saving initiatives stemming from the Group’s strategic investment program, and a notable reduction in energy costs following the de-escalation of the energy crisis.

Entersoft // The share repurchase program for up to 2% of the total share capital (c600k shares) was approved during yesterday’s EGM. The price range was determined between €2-€12 per share, with the duration set at 24 months.

Intralot // Public offer for Intralot’s €130m bond starting today running until 23rd February. The yield range has been set at 6%-6.4%.

Tourism // According to Kathimerini, booking trends ytd point to a c8% rise in 2024 arrivals and a c€2bn increase in tourism receipts (up from €20.5bn in 2023).

 

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.