Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (21.01.2025)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Άνοδο κατά 0,41% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1530,87 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 156,7 εκ. ευρώ (τα 31,6 εκ. ευρώ πακέτα). Αν και η μεταβλητότητα δεν ξεπέρασε τις 7 μονάδες, οι αψιμαχίες μεταξύ αγοραστών και πωλητών κυριάρχησαν μέχρι τις 2μμ με το ΓΔ να κινείται ακόμη και σε αρνητικό έδαφος. Όμως, οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν την υπεροπλία στη συνέχεια και με οδηγό δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους (Metlen, ΔΕΗ) και τράπεζες οδήγησαν το ΓΔ σε ανοδική κίνηση πετυχαίνοντας μάλιστα την καταγραφή της υψηλής επίδοσης ημέρας στις δημοπρασίες. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,313% με τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται ανοδικά. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+0,24%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με τη Εθνική (+1,80) να υπεραποδίδει αλλά τη Eurobank (-1,61%) να διαφοροποιείται. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε η Metlen (+2,79%), η ΔΕΗ (+1,60%), το Jumbo (+1,61%), o Τιτάν (+1,77%), η Lamda (+0,97%), ο ΟΛΠ (+1,94%) αλλά και ο Δρομέας (+11,18%) από τη μικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η Helleniq Energy (-2,34%) λόγω αποκοπής προμερίσματος 0,20 ευρώ/μετχ., η Βιοχάλκο (-1,03%), η ΜΟΗ (-0,83%), η ΕΥΔΑΠ (-0,67%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-3,45%) και το ΔΑΑ (-1,49%). Απολογιστικά, 42 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 55 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Παρά την αμηχανία των πρώτων ωρών, τελικά η εβδομάδα ξεκίνησε με θετικό πρόσημο και μάλιστα με ένα νέο ρεκόρ 14 ετών στις 1530 μονάδων. Οι αγορές καλούνται να αξιολογήσουν την μάλλον ήπια ρητορική που χαρακτήρισε την ομιλία του Ντόναλντ Τραμπ αμέσως μετά την ορκωμοσία του ως 47ου Προέδρου των ΗΠΑ.

Νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της Jumbo, στα 33,5 από 31,1 ευρώ δίνει η Optima Bank, ενώ διατηρεί τη σύσταση buy για τη μετοχή, καθώς το περιθώριο ανόδου από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα διαμορφώνεται στο 34,5%.

UBS: Αναμένει περαιτέρω re-rating για ελληνικές τράπεζες λόγω αύξησης των επιχειρηματικών πιστώσεων. Τιμές-στόχοι στα 2,42 ευρώ για την Alpha Bank, τα 11,20 ευρώ για την Εθνική Τράπεζα, τα 5,70 ευρώ για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς και τα 3 ευρώ για τη Eurobank.

Νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της Avax δίνει η Optima Bank, στα 3,03 από 2,79 ευρώ, διατηρώντας τη σύσταση «buy». Το περιθώριο ανόδου διαμορφώνεται στο 68,7%.
Το σύνολο των εγγεγραμμένων στο μητρώο της ΔΥΠΑ για τον μήνα Δεκέμβριο 2024, ανήλθε σε 977.687 άτομα. (-6%).Το σύνολο των επιδοτούμενων ανέργων ανέρχεται σε 262.548 άτομα (+53,7%).
Πτώση 5% στον Δείκτη Κύκλου Εργασιών Βιομηχανίας το Νοέμβριο.
Έρχονται ανατιμήσεις έως 15% στα ακτοπλοϊκά εισιτήρια. Οι αλλαγές στους κανονισμούς από την Ε.Ε. αυξάνουν το μεταφορικό κόστος.
Ιαν.-Νοέμβριος 2024: το έλλειμμα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών αυξήθηκε κατά 510,9 εκατ. ευρώ σε σχέση με την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2023 και διαμορφώθηκε σε 11,5 δισ. ευρώ. Στα €32,5 δις. το έλλειμα του ισοζυγίου αγαθών (+€2,9 δις.). Στα €22,3 δις. το πλεόνασμα του ισοζυγίου υπηρεσιών (+€0,9 δις.) με τις ταξιδιωτικές εισπράξεις να φτάνουν τα €21.3 δις. (+€1 δις.).
*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 5th session in a row and in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 0.41% at 1,530.87 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.50%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.23%, Banks Index: +0.24%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 155.7m, down from Friday’s EUR 186.3m. We expect some profit taking in ATHEX today, with stock picking in place.

Macro Headlines

Current account deficit narrows in November (BoG)

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in November 2024 recorded a deficit of 3,152.2m, vs. a deficit of 3,184.0m in the same period a year ago, due to the improvement of the surplus of the services balance which more than offset the deterioration of the balance of goods balance. Additionally, in the 11M24 period, the current account deficit widened by EUR 510.9m and stood at EUR 11,526.6m. Finally, travel receipts in November 2024 stood at EUR 617.9m, up by 44.7% y-o-y, while in the Jan-November 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 4.9% y-o-y to EUR 21,267m.

Comment: The 44.7% higher travel receipts during the month imply the extension of the Greek tourism season, and were driven by the increase by 23.6% international tourist flows during the month, and to lesser extent by the c.17% higher spending per traveller during the month. However, current account deficit widened by 4.6% y-o-y in 11M24, mainly due to the deterioration of the goods basket, on lower y-o-y exports and higher y-o-y imports.

Industrial Turnover index down by 5.0% in November (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) decreased by 5.0% y-o-y in November 2024 compared to a decrease of 2.3% y-o-y in November 2023 while decreased by 7.5% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the December 2023-November 2024 period increased by 1.0% y-o-y compared to a 2.0% y-o-y decrease in the respective December 2022-November 2023 period.

Sector Headlines

EBA EU-wide stress test results out at the beginning of August

The European Banking Authority launched its 2025 EU-wide stress test and released the macroeconomic scenarios (baseline, adverse), under which it will assess EU banks’ performance from 2025 to 2027. The EU-wide stress test will be conducted on a sample of 64 banks and EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise at the beginning of August 2025. According to EBA, the sample of Greek banks is including Alpha Services and Holdings, National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Financial Holdings. The baseline scenario for Greece is assuming GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025e, 2.3% in 2026e and 2.0% in 2027 and the unemployment rate at 9.8% in 2025e, 9.1% in 2026e and 8.5% in 2027e. The adverse scenario is based on a hypothetical severe escalation of geopolitical tensions, accompanied by increasingly inward-looking trade policies globally, that cause an increase in energy and commodity prices, disruptions in the supply chain and adverse effects on private consumption and investment coupled with a worldwide economic contraction. The adverse scenario for Greece is assuming a cumulative GDP contraction of 6.1% over 2025e-2027e (-1.4% in 2025e, -4.3% in 2026e, -0.5% in 2027e), HICP to accelerate to 4.4% in 2025e, 3.9% in 2026e and 2.9% in 2027e and the unemployment rate to widen to 11.4% in 2025e, 13.6% in 2026e and 14.7% in 2027e.

Company Headlines

Piraeus Financial Holdings AGM to take place in April

Piraeus announced that it will report FY24 results on Monday 24 February before the opening of ATHEX and the Ordinary General Meeting of shareholders will take place in April 2025, whilst the exact date will be specified in a later announcement. In other news, Piraeus also announced the resignation of Mr. Solomon Berahas from the position of the Independent Non-Executive Member of the BoD, after completion of the maximum tenure limit envisaged in the law for Independent Board Members.

Ideal Holdings in advanced talks to acquire Barba Stathis

Ideal Holdings announced that is at an advanced stage of negotiations with FROZEN HOLDINGS Monoprosopi S.A, the sole shareholder of the Babra Stathis, for the acquisition of 100% of the shares of the latter. Until now, no Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) has been signed between the parties involved, which will determine in detail the general and specific terms of the transaction, including the purchase price. Ideal Holdings estimates that the completion and signing of the aforementioned SPA will take place in the next days. Following signing, the company will immediately make the relevant announcements.

Athens International Airport is ranked among the top 10 airports in EU

According to data from Eurostat, AIA is ranked in the 8th among the 10 airports of the EU, with the total number of flights exceeding 268,000. The flights landing and taking off from the airport in 2024 were up 11% compared to 2023, while both domestic and international flights increased by 5.1% and 15.5% respectively.

Thrace Plastics to distribute EUR 0.0699665/share interim dividend

Following the 21.10.24 announcement, regarding the interim dividend distribution, Thrace Plastics announced that the gross amount per share now amounts to EUR 0.0699665112 (vs. EUR 0.06858/sh), excluding the 863,796 own shares held by the company. (DY: 1.69%, ex-date: 23 January).

Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback

Alpha announced that during the period 13.1.2025 – 17.1.2025 it purchased 2,075,000 own shares, with an average price of EUR 1.7300/share and a cost of EUR 3,589,772.54. Following the above purchases, the company holds 39,352,758 of own shares or 1.67% of shares outstanding.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

Greek equities took a breather yesterday, following a new 14-year high on Friday, with the ASE Index flattish (+0.2%) on the day amid a EUR 130m turnover. The banking sector followed suit ending at +0.2%, with Piraeus and NBG up 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, whereas Eurobank lost 1.1% and Alpha Bank slipped 0.7%. On market’s top performers, Metlen was up c.2.8%, Jumbo returned on green territory gaining 1.6%, PPC and PPA both rose 1.5% and Titan marked 1.3% gains. Trading ex-DPS, Helleniq Energy was down 2.2%, followed by Motor Oil declining by 1%,

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

According to BoG, the current account deficit increased to EUR 11.5bn in the period of January to November 2024, driven by a deceleration in the balance of goods, due to a 3.6% drop in exports vs a 1.5% in imports.

BANKS

EBA announced the key macro assumptions for the 2025 stress tests for NBG, Alpha and Piraeus. In the base case scenario GDP is forecasted to grow 2.5% in 2025E, 2.3% in 2026E and 2.0% in 2027E. In the adverse scenario, GDP is expected to drop 1.4% in 2025E, 4.3% in 2026E and 0.5% in 2027E.

ENERGY SECTOR

Ministry of Environment and Energy announced that the US Oil producer Chevron has submitted a non-binding expression of interest for one open block, southwest of Peloponnese Peninsula. According to the statement, a decision will be issued this week on the exact area of exploration and an international tender will be launched soon.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // The ASE Index continued its upward trajectory on Monday, gaining 0.41% and closing at its intra-day high of 1,530.87 points, marking yet another 14-year high. Trading activity remained robust, albeit at slightly lower levels compared to Friday, with turnover reaching €156mn, namely c5% higher than its 100-day moving average of €148mn. Turnover was bolstered by Metlen, which contributed around €44mn, including c€20mn from five block trades. Among blue chips, Metlen led gainers rallying 2.8%, with strong performances also delivered by Piraeus Port Authority (+1.9%), National Bank of Greece (+1.8%), Titan Cement (+1.8%), and Premia (+1.7%). Additionally, Jumbo, PPC, Ideal, and Piraeus Bank recorded gains exceeding 1%. On the contrary, Elvalhalcor shed 3.5%, while Noval and Papoutsanis fell 2.4-2.5%, followed by HelleniQ Energy (-2.3%, trading ex-div). Other notable decliners included Performance Technologies (-2.0%), Motodynamics (-1.8%), Eurobank (-1.6%), AIA (-1.5%), Quest (-1.5%), Profile (-1.3%), Intralot (-1.3%), and Hellenic Exchanges (-1.1%). For today, EU markets are set to open on a negative note, following Trump’s announcement of planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which has raised concerns that Europe could be targeted in the next round of tariffs.

Alter Ego Media (AEM) // IPO running until tomorrow, with AEM aiming to raise up to €57mn. The price range has been set at €3.7–4 per share, with press reports referring to a 3x oversubscription on the first day. As a reminder, AEM is a one of the leading media Groups in Greece, active in TV, radio, & publications. It owns >15 media assets across the media spectrum (incl. Mega TV, “Vima”, “Ta Nea”, in.gr etc).

Greek Banks // The European Banking Authority (EBA) released yesterday the macroeconomic scenarios for the 2025 EU-wide stress test, which are notably more stringent compared to the assumptions used in the 2023 exercise. In the adverse scenario, Greek GDP would decrease by 6.1% cumulatively through to 2027e, with residential prices falling cumulatively by c22.3%  and commercial prices by c28.8%. Inflation would range between 4.4%-2.9% in 2025-27e and unemployment between 11.4%-14.7% respectively. With this in mind, we remind that Greek banks’ CET1 ratio has increased by over 200bps in the past couple of years, while the NPE ratio has fallen to 3.2% from 6.2%. This provides an additional buffer to comfortably pass the stress tests, despite the more stringent assumptions, and potentially lower the P2G. Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings S.A. has been excluded from the sample on “major acquisition” grounds.

Premia // Premia Properties announced the acquisition of the entire share capital of Semeli Winery S.A. for a total consideration of €10.6mn. Under the agreement, Premia will acquire buildings with a total area of 6.8K sqm (including a 5.5K sqm winery in Nemea, Corinthia) as well as agricultural land covering 278 stremmas. In other news, the company also announced that its BoD has approved the share capital increase related to the agreement with NLTG (7.6m new shares at €1.36/share).

Thrace Plastics // Thrace’s interim dividend adjusted for own shares is set at €0.0699/share (€0.6647/share net, c1.7% div. yield). The ex-dividend date is Thursday 23rd January, while payment starts on Wednesday January 29th, 2025.