ATHEX headed north on Friday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.74% at 1,393.49 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.87%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.36%, Banks Index: -1.14%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 96.7m, down from Thursday’s EUR 1,727m. On a weekly basis, the General Index slipped by 0.58% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: -1.36%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.96%, Banks index: -3.10%). Ahead this week: Morgan Stanley-Hellenic Exchanges roadshow (Optima bank also participates) today and tomorrow, GDP announcement for 3Q24 on Friday, S&P sovereign debt review on Friday. We expect the market to move higher today, aided by the PM denial for the imposition of an extra tax on the large companies.
Macro Headlines
Greek PM denies possible imposition of an extra tax on Greek companies (press)
In a TV interview, the Greek Prime Minister ruled out the possibility for an additional tax on the windfall profits of the major companies, adding that the solidarity tax on the refineries was a proposal introduced by the EC for two years and is now expired. Mr Mitsotakis also added that such a tax is rather of no use, as the government expenditures in the state budget have reached the EU-mandated ceiling, and that the government’s focus remains the further containment of the tax evasion.
Greece to tap the markets with two bond issuances in 2025e (press)
According to Kathimerini, PDMA plans to tap the international bond markets with two bond issuances in 2025e, one of which 10-year, aiming to raise EUR 8bn and targeting to further lower the bond spread over Germany by 10-30 bps.
HICP slightly down in November (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.0% in November (and down by -1.1% m-o-m), slightly down compared to 3.1% in October and above the respective EU area figure (up to 2.3% in November from 2.0% in October).
PPI in industry slightly drops in October (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) dropped by 2.3% y-o-y in October 2024, driven by the price decreases in Energy goods (-6.2% y-o-y), while higher producer prices were gauged in durable consumer goods (+3.8% y-o-y;). In the November 2023- October 2024 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) decreased by 3.4% in comparison with the corresponding index for the period from November 2022 to October 2023.
Greek unemployment slightly increased to 9.8% in October
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 9.8% in October 2024, slightly up from 9.4% in September 2024 and lower than 10.8% in October 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 466,858, lower by 8.8% y-o-y and up by 5.0% m-o-m.
Retail Sales up in September (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased by 3.7% y-o-y in September 2024 (while also increased by 0.9% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales increased by 1.7% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 2.7% y-o-y, on higher prices with sales volume up by (0.4% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales increased by 5.2% y-o-y with sales volume up by 3.2% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 8.4% y-o-y, with sales volume up by 4.8% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Electricity Suppliers announce retail tariffs for December
The electricity suppliers announced higher retail tariffs for December, absorbing so some extent the increased wholesale price (wholesale electricity price in December shaped at EUR 137.42/MWh from EUR 90.06/MWh in October). In more detail, PPC announced EUR 155.5/MWh, ELPEDISON at EUR 158.5/MWh, METLEN’s PROTERGIA at EUR 159/MWh and GEKTERNA’s HERON at EUR 169.8/MWh.
Company Headlines
GEKTERNA 9M24 results out
GEKTERNA reported 9M24 group turnover of EUR 2.5bn, down by 2.0% y-o-y (due to lower contribution from thermal generation and construction), EBITDA adjusted of EUR 433.9m, up by 9.5% y-o-y), with construction/concessions/RES/Energy segments contributing EUR 98.2m/126/145.9m/82.6m respectively, while adjusted net profit stood at EUR 114.6m, up by 20.1% y-o-y and Net profit from continuous operations (i.e. excluding the held for sale Terna Energy) stood at EUR 96.1m, +25.5% y-o-y. Group backlog remained high at EUR 5.0bn, down by EUR 300m y-t-d, with scope to remain high as new project are to be onboarded. Turning to leverage, group net debt stood at the 9M24 end at EUR 1,712m, up by EUR 104m y-t-d, while excluding the RES-related debt, stands at EUR 891m and close to zero when accounting the EUR 864m cash proceeds from the sale of TE. Finally, GEKTERNA said that a) the Komotini CCGT (a 50%/50% JV with Motor Oil) is in trial operation, with the commercial operation expected in 1Q25e, b) Attiki Odos 25-year concession period commenced on October 6th, c) Kasteli airport construction at 40% (as of 30.09.2024), d) the Egnatia Odos concession agreement is signed with concession commencement anticipated in 1Q25 and e) the North Crete motorway concession agreement (Chania-Irakleio segment) is under preparation to be signed with the State
Intralot 9M24 results
Group revenues came in at EUR 263.5m (-6% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 91.5m (-9% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin at 36.6% from 38.5% in 3Q23. Net profit reached EUR 6.5m (-28% y-o-y). FCF came in at EUR 25.8m (-39% y-o-y) on lower OpCF (-16% y-o-y), whilst CapEx was shaped at EUR 31.1m (-6% y-o-y). Net debt stood at EUR 326.2m (including restricted cash) from EUR 458.2m a year ago. Management stated on the conference call that Intralot is the preferred bidder for VLT monitoring in Nebraska (EBITDA EUR >2.5m) and is participating in various contests in US (Missouri, Illinois, Maryland). 9M24 results point that the company will deliver our FY estimates that call for revenues of EUR 365.3m and EBITDA of EUR 131.2m. We are Buyers on weakness.
OTE Share Buyback
The company announced that during 25/11/2024 – 29/11/2024, it purchased 280,916 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.009 per share and now holds 6,049,691 own shares or 1.466% of the total shares outstanding.
Greek equities finished Friday’s session with 0.7% losses, led by the banking sector, with turnover reaching EUR 96m. Banks were down 1.1% on the day, with NBG marking the biggest drop, down 2.1%, Alpha slipping 0.8% and Piraeus at 0.7%. On non-financials Lamda rose 1.7%, Helleniq Energy was up 0.6%, while Cenergy, GEK Terna and Metlen ended flat. Among market’s underperformers, Aegean marked 1.8% losses, PPC was down 1.1%, followed by OPAP -0.9% and Jumbo -0.8%.
MACRO I
According to ELSTAT, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 9.8% in October 2024, compared to 9.4% in September 2024 and 10.8% in October 2023.
MACRO II
Based on ELSTAT’s data, the Volume Index in Retail Trade marked a 0.6% yoy decrease in September 2024.
BANKS
The PM in an interview on Saturday mentioned that there are no plans for one off taxation in large corporates for 2025.
GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
GEK Terna announced 9M24 revenues (from continued operations, ex Terna Energy) of EUR 2.23bn (-5.2% yoy), adjusted EBITDA of EUR 279.2m (-0.6% yoy) and net profits of EUR 96.1m (+25.5% yoy). The decline in revenue is due to the lower contribution from Conventional Energy (mainly on the back of lower prices) and a seasonal softness in construction (project timing with activity to pick up in the coming months). Adj. EBITDA margins improved in 1H24 driven by higher profitability in construction and the steady improvement in concessions due to strong traffic growth (+7.9% yoy). The concession segment will improve substantially from 4Q24 onwards following the commencement of the Attiki Odos concession (from Oct 6). The group net debt (pro-forma for Terna Energy and Attiki Odos stands at EUR 3.2bn with the parent at EUR 0.1bn.
INTRALOT <INLOT GA, OW>
Intralot reported its 9M24 results on Friday, with revenues of EUR 263.5m, down 5.9% yoy and EBITDA at EUR 91.5m (-9.4% yoy). Moreover, GGR for the period stood at EUR 249.8m, down 4.7% yoy, while net profit after minorities amounted to EUR 6.5m (-28.2% yoy). Group’s adjusted net debt in 9M24 decreased to EUR 326m, EUR 7m lower qoq.
Market Comment // The ASE index ended 0.74% lower on Friday, closing at its intraday low (1,393.49 points) trading in the red almost throughout the day. Trading activity on Friday remained subdued, at €96.3m, below the 100-day MA of €136m, with banks representing >58% of the total value. The Greek benchmark ended the week in negative territory (-0.58%), led by a -3.1% in banks. Nonetheless on a monthly basis, the ASE General index ticked 0.78% higher, with the bank index marginally higher (+0.2%) following the -8.4% in October. On Friday, Attica Bank led laggards (-3.40%), trailed by Ellaktor (-2.14%), NBG (-2.11%), CCH (-2.11%), ATHEX (-1.92%), Aegean (-1.86%), AIA (-1.23%) and PPC (-1.12%). On the positive side, Profile led gainers +1.78%, followed by Real Consulting (+1.75%), Lamda (+1.70%), Fourlis (+1.26%) and Thrace Plastics (+1.01%) also posted gains >1%. Today markets look poised for a negative opening as investors navigate rising risk-off sentiment fueled by political uncertainty in France.
GEK Terna // 9M’24 results settled broadly in line with our estimates with 9M’24 revenue from continuing activities at €2.23bn (-5% YoY), translating to 9M’24 adjusted EBITDA of €279mn (-1% YoY), with the respective margin settling at 12.5%, compared to 11.9% in 9M’23. Net income from continuing activities, after minorities, reached €98mn (+12% YoY). Q3’24 results from continuing activities were improved across the board, with revenues at €882mn (+3% YoY) and adj. EBITDA at €107mn (+7% YoY).
ADMIE Holding // According press a new divergence has arisen between IPTO and Cyprus regarding the GSi project. Specifically, IPTO seeks €48.8mn for the consideration paid to acquire the interconnection project, but regulators approved only €12.8mn, rejecting €36mn as unrelated costs and a premium.
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