Απόπειρα ανάκαμψης στο ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο, το οποίο παίρνει «ανάσα» μετά την τετραήμερη τεχνική διόρθωση.
Επιλεκτικές οι κινήσεις των αγοραστών στο ταμπλό, με στόχο την επαναφορά πάνω από το ψυχολογικό όριο των 1.400 μονάδων.
Νέες, χαμηλότερες τιμές-στόχους για τις μετοχές των τραπεζών δίνει σε έκθεσή της η Morgan Stanley, ενώ υποβαθμίζει και τη σύσταση για Πειραιώς και Εθνική λόγω της πιθανής επιβράδυνσης στην Ευρώπη και χαμηλότερων επιτοκίων. Μειώνει τον στόχο για τη μεν Πειραιώς στα 4,96 από 5,39 ευρώ, για τη δε Εθνική Τράπεζα σε 9,05 από 10,25 ευρώ. Αlpha Bank: είναι η κορυφαία της επιλογή από τον κλάδο στην Ελλάδα, καθώς επηρεάζεται λιγότερο από τις μειώσεις επιτοκίων και είναι υποτιμημένη σε σχέση με τις υπόλοιπες.Πιστωτική επέκταση της τάξης των 10 με 10,5 δισ. ευρώ θα περιλαμβάνουν τα επικαιροποιημένα επιχειρησιακά πλάνα των συστημικών τραπεζών για το επόμενο έτος, προκειμένου η αύξηση των ενήμερων δανείων να αντισταθμίσει μέρος της επίπτωσης στα καθαρά έσοδα από τόκους, λόγω της ταχείας αποκλιμάκωσης επιτοκίων.
Cenergy 9μηνο : Οι πωλήσεις ανήλθαν σε €1,26 δισ., 8% υψηλότερα σε σχέση με την αντίστοιχη περσινή περίοδο. Η λειτουργική κερδοφορία βελτιώθηκε σημαντικά με το αναπροσαρμοσμένο EBITDA να διαμορφώνεται στα €194 εκ. για το εννεάμηνο του 2024 (+34% σε σχέση με την αντίστοιχη περσινή περίοδο) με ετήσια εκτίμηση €245-260 εκ. Τα καθαρά κέρδη μ.φ. διαμορφώνονται σε €100,3 εκ. (+113% σε σχέση με την αντίστοιχη περσινή περίοδο. Το ανεκτέλεστο υπόλοιπο παραγγελιών ανήλθε σε €3,48 δισ. στις 30/9/ 2024.
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a 4th session in a row, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.81% at 1,392.44 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.72%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.63%, Banks Index: -1.16%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 120.3m, down from Friday’s EUR 148.3m. We expect ATHEX to try to move higher today with Cenergy in focus.
Macro Headlines
Central government budget execution January-October 2024 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-October 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 6,078m surplus vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 2,213m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 482 deficit in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 13,489m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 4,667m and a EUR 6,080m surplus in the same period in 2023.
Comment: It is noted that part of the difference in tax revenues of EUR 647m is accounted for in the fiscal result of 2023, while EUR 2,887m concerning the time differentiation of the transfers to SSFs and the military procurement expenditure do not affect the outcome in fiscal terms. With the exception of the above amounts, the overperformance in the State Budget Primary Balance for the period of January–October is EUR 2,070m.
Greece will seek to repay early at least EUR 5bn of bailout loans in 2025
The Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis said at a Bloomberg event on Monday that Greece will seek to repay at least EUR 5bn of bailout loans in 2025 ahead of maturity, as an indication of the confidence in the country’s public finances.
Company Headlines
CENERGY Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 8.34 | TP EUR 12.60
3Q/9M24 Results: Strong performance, above our call at bottom line, confirms 2024 guidance, new record high Backlog; capacity expansion investments progress according to schedule
Facts: Cenergy Holdings released a strong set of 3Q24 results, with group turnover up by 20.6% YoY to EUR 448.1m with good execution of a favourable mix of energy projects on higher volumes, which drove adjusted EBITDA higher by 26.2% YoY to EUR 74.3m (in line with our call), while net income came at EUR 43.8m, well above our EUR 38.3m call on lower effective tax rate and EUR 1.3m gains from inventory, from EUR 23.5m a year ago. In 9M24 terms, Cenergy recorded sales of EUR 1,260m (up 7.7% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 193.8m and Net Profits of EUR 100.3m (112.6% up y-o-y). The order backlog set a new high at EUR 3.48bn from EUR 3.38bn in 1H24, while net debt didn’t drop during the quarter due to increased capex and working capital needs. Finally, CENERGY reiterated the 2024e EBITDA guidance of EUR 245-265m in 2024e.
Outlook: The outlook for the cables segment remains strong, as its order backlog keeps growing and capacity expansions in its facilities progress as planned. In a similar manner, the pipes segment as its order backlog keeps growing and capacity expansions in its facilities progress as planned. In a similar manner, the pipes segment sees the future with optimism, fostered by the recent awards which supported its high backlog, coupled with the capacity upgrades in the HSAW mill.
Optima view: Another strong set of results for Cenergy, on better margins and above our call, as the execution of the huge, accumulated backlog for the higher-margin energy projects supports profitability. Backlog continues to expand, (note that additional sizeable contracts have been secured so far in 4Q24) Looking into 2025, the capacity additions in the submarine cables in Corinth, the upgraded onshore cables plants in Thiva and Eleonas, the new product line in the Pipes segment and also the huge accumulated backlog of EUR 3.48bn (which is further expanded in 4Q24 with new sizeable contracts), point to another strong year, during which is set to record new historically high performance and profitability. That said, we remain positive for the stock, and we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a Target Price at EUR 12.60/share.
Conference call Today at 15.00 local time, Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632.
3Q/9M24 Group Key P&L Results
MOH || Under Review | CP: 19.50 | TP: U/R
3Q24e results preview | solid quarter, despite the sharp correction of the refining margins and the fire in the CDU
MOH is scheduled to release its 3Q24e results tomorrow, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call the next day at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 196m (-63.6% y-o-y), consensus at EUR 204m, and “adjusted” net income of EUR 80m, lower by 12.7% compared to consensus estimate of EUR 92m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 375m in 3Q23. Accounting for EUR 58m expected losses from inventory and one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 138 (-77.8% y-o-y) and IFRS net losses of EUR 165m (including the EUR 200m impact from the solidarity tax), vs. profits of EUR 441m a year ago. It is reminded that Motor Oil has already declared an interim DPS of EUR 0.30 (DY: 1.5%, ex-date: 23 December). Finally, we see no significant change in the net debt position of the Group during the quarter.
MOH Group 3Q/9M24e Key P&L Estimates
OPAP || CP: EUR 14.98 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 19.30
3Q24e preview: Α positive quarter after a long time, in trajectory to meet management guidance
Solid 3Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 3Q24e results on Wednesday 20 November, AMC, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We expect a very strong quarter in terms of top line, with double digit revenue growth driven by strong Betting (supported by EURO 2024 event and new leagues), the outperformance of lottery and the continues outperformance of Online Casino. On the flip side Instant & Passives category continued losing momentum due to strong online competition. As management guided, OpEx started to ease from the reduction in advertising spend as Eurojackpot rollout campaign was tempered. The quarter was marked by a) easy comps 3Q23, which was characterized by unusually high payouts, b) the strong betting (new leagues added) and lottery activity (the 2nd highest Joker Jackpot ever), and c) the continued growth of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and betting activity.
3Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast revenues (GGR) of EUR 540.3m (vs. EUR 481.0m in 3Q23 +12.3% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 188.9m (vs. EUR 142.4m in 3Q23 32.7% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 109.5m vs. EUR 78.6m in 3Q23 (39.2% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 313.7m, accounting for 58.2% of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated to decrease at EUR 106.3m (-7.2% y-o-y); accounting for 19.7% of total GGR vs. 23.8% in 3Q23. Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to increase both q-o-q and y-o-y at 35.0% up from 29.6% in 3Q23 (+540bps). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 59.3m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 9.7m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter.
Analysis per segment | Per product category, we see sports betting GGR (retail & online) at EUR 160.1m (up by 11.2% y-o-y) boosted by Euro 2024 and the addition of new leagues. Lottery revenues are estimated to jump at EUR 192.9m (up by 16.2% y-o-y) aided by the record high Joker Jackpot which attracted players, while VLTs GGR is seen flattish at EUR 83.2m, assuming a flat net daily drop of EUR 42 per machine. In respect to Instant & Passives, we expect segmental performance to continue losing momentum, hence we forecast GGR of EUR 22.2m vs. EUR 25.6m in 3Q23 as the category is facing increased competition from online gaming as well as higher average cost per game in comparison to other OPAP games. Finally, the On-line Casino operation is expected to record GGR of EUR 81.9m in 3Q24e (+31.0% y-o-y) continuing to outperform. All in all, we forecast online GGR of EUR 183.7m (+43.5% y-o-y; Stoiximan/OPAP Online GGR: EUR 162m/22m).
Mr. Yannis Vardinoyannis appointed Chairman & Managing Director of Motor Oil
Motor Oil announced that following the passing of its Chairman Vardis J. Vardinoyannis, Mr. Yannis V. Vardinoyannis was appointed Chairman & Managing Director of the company BoD.
IPTO (in which ADMIE Holdings participates with 51%) launches the Tender of the Corinth – Kos Electrical Interconnection
ADMIE announced that IPTO S.A. launched the tender for the electrical interconnection of Corinth – Kos. The budget for the cable section of the interconnection amounts to EUR 630m, and EUR 789.1m for the Converter Stations. The duration of the construction phase is set at 36 months from the signing of the contract.
Competition authority approves concession of Attiki Odos to GEKTERNA
According to Euro2day.gr, the competition authority approved GEKTERNA as the new concessionaire for a 25-year period for Attiki Odos.
INTRAKAT EGM today
INTRAKAT will hold an EGM today to approve the EUR 200m SCI with the issuance of 43.478.478 shares at 4.60 / share, at a ratio of 0,2709 New Shares for each 1 old share of the Company.
KRI-KRI 3Q24 results out on 26 November
The company is set to report 3Q24 results on Thursday 26 November after the market close.
The market recorded its fourth consecutive day on the red, losing 0.8%, on a EUR 120m turnover, with the benchmark Index falling below the 1.400 threshold. Banks continued their corrective trend, driven by NBG and Piraeus Bank marking 3% and 2.3% losses respectively, whereas Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus maintained momentum rising 1.8% and 0.9%. Among market’s top gainers, Jumbo finished 1.5% higher, OTE was up 0.6%, with PPC and Terna Energy flattish on the day. PPA was down 2.5%, Metlen marked a 2% drop, OPAP lost 1%, followed by GEK Terna slipping 0.9%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICS
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reiterated in “The New Era of Greek Banking” event of Bloomberg, that the Greek elections will take place in 2027, while he also stated that the government maintains a stable majority.
ENERGY SECTOR
The Minister of Environment and Energy, Theodoros Skylakakis, is scheduled to meet with EU Commission on Friday November 22nd, to discuss the high energy prices and potential mechanisms that could be adopted to tackle the issue.
CENERGY HOLDINGS <CENER GA, OW>
Cenergy reported revenues in 3Q24 of EUR 448m (vs. ours of EUR 410m), an a-EBITDA of EUR 76m (vs. ours of EUR 70m) and a net profit of EUR 44m (vs. ours of EUR 33m). The results are driven by the cables segment (resulting in a group margin uplift to 16.6% from 15.5% in the same period last year) and the jump in profitability in steel pipes due to the execution of higher margin projects. The order backlog increased further to EUR 3.48bn (vs. EUR 3.38bn in June 2024 and EUR 3.0bn at year end).
MOTOR OIL <MOH GA, OW>
Motor Oil is due to report 3Q24 numbers on Wednesday, November 20th after the close. Consensus calls for 3Q24 adj. EBITDA of EUR 204m with adj net profit (Excl. solidarity contribution of EUR 96m. Accounting for one off solidarity contribution, adj. net loss is seen at EUR 107m. A conference call is scheduled for Thursday, November 21st at 17:30 GR time (15:30 UK time, 10:30 NY time). Dial ins to be released along with publication of results. On a separate note, Motor Oil announced that Mr Yannis Vardinoyiannis, CEO, will also be chairing the Board of Directors, following the passing of its Chairman, Vardi J. Vardinoyannis.
Market Comment // The Greek market extended its downward trend for a fourth consecutive day, closing -0.81% as banks remained in correction mode, sliding -1.2%. Trading activity held slightly above the 100-day moving average (€119mn) at €120mn, with banks contributing c61% of total transaction value. Among large caps, Viohalco led laggards shedding 4.13%, followed by NBG (-3.01%) and Piraeus (-2.4%). Among other names, Fourlis (-3.63%) and Intralot (-3.04%) retreated more than 3%, followed by Ideal, PPA, Kri-Kri, Sarantis and Elvalhalcor. On the other hand, Eurobank stood out among gainers with a +1.83% rise, followed by Jumbo (+1.49%) and EYDAP (+1.4%), while Bank of Cyprus, OTE, Motodynamics, Thrace Plastics, PPC, and Premia posted modest gains. EU futures point to a positive opening, tracking broad gains in Asian stocks, with investors focusing on President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selections and policy agenda.
Cenergy // Cenergy delivered a robust set of results for 9M’24, with adj. EBITDA at €193.8m (+34% yoy, +5% above EEe) on revenue of €1.26bn (+8% higher yoy). Performance was supported by sustained high margins across the offering, with increased contributions from HV cables and offshore steel pipes driving group adj. EBITDA margin to 15.4% (c3pps above the 9M’23 figure). The step-up in profitability fed through to 9M’24 PBT of €123m (vs. €60m in 9M’23, also helped by milder financial expenses) and 9M’24 net profit of €100m (+113% yoy) at group level. Given the strong performance in the 9-mth period and the increased share of margin-accretive activities in the mix, we recalibrate our FY’24 estimates slightly, now aiming for adj. EBITDA of €257m (+20% yoy, €255m envisaged before) and revenue of €1,82bn (+12% yoy). Our updated estimates (also recalibrated for the recent capital increase) can be found in the following link. A conference call will be held today at 15:00 Athens time (webcast link: here, dial-in details: Greece + 30 210 9460 800; UK & Other International: + 44 203 059 5872; US + 1 516 447 5632).
OPAP // Q3 results tomorrow (post market close) likely to be a positive catalyst with revenue growth accelerating to +12% (from +7% in Q2), helped by easy comps and robust online performance. With marketing expenses rolling off (frontloaded in H1), we anticipate c11% growth in adj. EBITDA to €192m. Results are set to affirm OPAP is on track to deliver FY24 EBITDA at the high-end of the provided guidance (FY24 EBITDA at €750-770m, 1-3% growth yoy).
Motor Oil // Scheduled to release its Q3’24 results tomorrow, post-market close. In a quarter where refining margins reverted to mid-cycle levels, we anticipate normalized profitability, though the yoy comparison will reflect a notable decline due to last year’s record-breaking results. We project Q3’24 revenue at €3.13bn (-23% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €206mn (-62% yoy). In terms of bottom line, we estimate adjusted net income at €91mn (-76% yoy), and reported net loss of €154mn.
Quest // Quest is due to release its 9M’24 results tomorrow after market. We estimate high single digit revenue growth in Q3, driven by sustained positive growth in Greek retail activity, thus supporting commercial and courier services, and double digit growth in IT service revenues as the strong backlog is feeding in the sector figures. In total we estimate 9M’24 EBITDA at €64.5m, up by 8% yoy (Q3 +10% yoy), on +12% yoy sales growth (Q3 +9% yoy).
ADMIE Holding // Announced the tender for the €1.42bn Corinth-Kos electrical interconnection, covering HVDC cables and converter stations, with a 36-month construction timeline. The project will connect six Dodecanese systems, ensuring reliable supply to 10 more islands, while reducing Public Utilities costs by €3.6bn (2029–2053). The project will be funded by the Island Decarbonisation Fund.
Economy // The PM announced during a Bloomberg event that Greece intends to prepay at least €5bn in bailout loans by 2025, well ahead of their maturities between 2033 and 2042. The ESM is expected to approve Greece’s request to utilize €15.7bn from its cash reserves, held in a special account at the Bank of Greece, in early December 2024. These funds, originating from ESM loans granted during Greece’s financial assistance programs, will facilitate debt repayment over 2025-2026, supporting the government’s efforts to improve fiscal sustainability and reduce debt servicing costs.
Gaming // Market data for the 9 months to end September affirms strong momentum in Q3’24, with total growth +15% yoy in the quarter, mainly driven by online (+25%). OPAP retail seems to have increased 9%, with strong betting/VLTs partly offset by weak Hellenic Lotteries.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
