Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (19.06.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Άνοδο κατά 1,30% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1422,32 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 110,4 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν την υπεροπλία και δεν επέτρεψαν στους πωλητές να την αµφισβητήσουν σε όλη σχεδόν τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίαση µε το Γ.∆. να κινείται µόνο σε θετικό έδαφος. Με οδηγό τον τραπεζικό κλάδο αλλά και τους περισσότερους τίτλους υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης, χωρίς ουσιαστική όµως επέκταση σε τίτλους µεσαίας και µικρής κεφαλαιοποίησης. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,60%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,92%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε την Εθνική (+3,24%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε η ∆ΕΗ (+3,10%), τα ΕΛΠΕ (+1,56%), η ΜΟΗ (+1,15%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (+5,11%), το Jumbo (+1,615), η Aegean (+2,25%), η Cenergy (+2,56%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+1,88%), ο Α∆ΜΗΕ (+3,77%) αλλά και η Real (+3,77%) από τη µικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η Βιοχάλκο (-0,50%), η Lamda (- 0,30%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (-0,34%) και η ΕΕΕ (-1,63%). Απολογιστικά, 67 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 27 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Το θετικό momentum επανέρχεται στο Χ.Α. µε την τεχνική ανάλυση ωστόσο να επιζητεί την υπέρβαση των 1450 µονάδων για την εδραίωσή του ώστε να ξεπερνά το χαρακτηρισµό ως ανοδικής αντίδρασης. Τα νέα ιστορικά υψηλά της Wall Street για τον S & P 500 και το Nasdaq υποβοηθούν το σενάριο συνέχισης της ανοδικής κίνησης στις αγορές του πλανήτη, στο Χ.Α. ανάµεσά τους. Κλειστή σήµερα η Wall Street λόγω της Εθνικής Ηµέρας Ανεξαρτησίας.
∆ηµοπρασία οµολόγου λήξης 2034 σταθερού επιτοκίου 3,375% για €200 εκ. σήµερα από τον Ο∆∆ΗΧ. Σκοπός της επανέκδοσης είναι η ικανοποίηση της επενδυτικής ζήτησης και ταυτόχρονα η διευκόλυνση της λειτουργίας της δευτερογενούς αγοράς οµολόγων.

Eurobank Equities: Τιµή στόχος τα 5,3 ευρώ για τη Real Consulting.

Lamda: Στην ΜΕΤΚΑ η κατασκευή του εµπορικού κέντρου Riviera Galleria συνολικής επιφάνειας 23.000 τ.µ.. Φέρει την υπογραφή του κορυφαίου, διεθνούς φήµης Ιάπωνα αρχιτέκτονα Kengo Kuma. Η διάρκεια της κατασκευής εκτιµάται σε 26 µήνες.

Epsilon Net: Στο 78,05% το ποσοστό της Ginger Digital. Εντάσσονται στο γενικό πολεοδοµικό σχέδιο του ∆ήµου Λαυρεωτικής δύο ακίνητα αθροιστικής επιφάνειας 100 στρεµµάτων.

Σχέδιο ανάπτυξης από το δίδυµο Πειραιώς-Strix συµφωνία µε την Dimand. Μέτοχος µειοψηφίας στα παραπάνω ακίνητα η Κέκροψ.

Α∆ΜΗΕ: Τα Κέρδη προ φόρων & χρηµ/κών αποτελεσµάτων ανήλθαν στα €18,6 εκ. αυξηµένα κατά 25,4% σε σχέση µε την ίδια περίοδο το 2023, κυρίως λόγω της σηµαντικής αύξησης των εσόδων και της Λειτουργικής αποτελεσµατικότητας. Στα €18,6 εκ. από €14,8 εκ. πέρσι τα καθαρά κέρδη. Στα €5,3 εκ. τα ταµειακά διαθέσιµα.
Έτρεξε µε 9% ο τζίρος σε καταλύµατα-εστίαση τον Απρίλιο. Οι επιχειρήσεις µε υποχρέωση τήρησης διπλογραφικών βιβλίων καταγράφουν έσοδα 535,8 εκατ. ευρώ.
ΟΣΕ: Ελβετικό Ενδιαφέρον για το δίκτυο της Πελοποννήσου. Ο Ελβετός Πρέσβης Stefan Estermann ενηµέρωσε τον Πρόεδρο του ΟΣΕ Γιάννη Γραµµατίδη για την απόφαση της ελβετικής πλευράς να υποστηρίξει λεπτοµερή µελέτη σκοπιµότητας. Εµπειρία µετρικών ορεινών σιδηροδροµικών συστηµάτων και τουριστικών προγραµµάτων.
 
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* Greece to shut down HFSF by year-end, after planned National Bank (ETE GA) placement

* National Bank (ETE GA) goes ex-€0.36/sh 2023 dividend (30% payout, 4.4% yield) on 29 July (subject to AGM approval on 25 July)

* Greece to tap debt markets today, raising €200m through June-2034 bond re-opening

* Lamda (LAMDA GA) names Metlen Energy & Metals (MYTIL GA) – via 100% owned Metka – as contractor to build new upmarket Riviera Galleria retail mall at Ellinikon site

* Optima Bank’s (OPTIMA GA) 80k new shares (0.1% of total, currently valued at €1m) issued under management share award scheme to debut trade tomorrow (20 June)

* Fourlis’ (FOYRK GA) Trade Estates (TRESTATE GA) trades ex-DPS of €0.08 for FY23, implying 4.9% DY at current price levels

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX rebounded yesterday, outperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.30% at 1,422.32 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.21%, FTSE Mid Cap: 0.91%, Banks Index: 1.92%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 109.8m, up from Monday’s EUR 93.5m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the international markets today.

Macro Headlines

Greece taps additional EUR 200m through the 2034 Bond

PDMA announced that it will tap the markets today with EUR 200m through the reopening of the existing 10-year bond with a 3.375% coupon.

Superfund absorbs the HFSF and TAIPED (press)

According to Kathimerini, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund and the Asset development Fund (TAIPED) will be absorbed by the so-called Superfund.

Company Headlines

Optima Bank new shares to commence trading tomorrow

Optima Bank announced that the new 80,000 common shares deriving from the stock options program will commence trading tomorrow and hence the number of shares outstanding will increase to 73,774,142 common shares. 

National Bank of Greece AGM on 25 July, ex-dividend on 29 July

National Bank of Greece announced that the AGM of shareholders will be held on Thursday 25 July and the stock will trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.36, DY: 4.6%) on Monday 29 July. Finally, NBG will report 2Q24 results on Thursday 01 August.

Piraeus Financial Holdings accomplished 2Q24 NCE target-Press

Reportedly, Piraeus Financial Holdings achieved 2Q24 net credit expansion target of EUR 650.0m. The news is positive and expected. Following the recent correction of the stock, we are buyers and reiterate our TP of EUR 5.50/share, implying a hefty 54% upside.  

ADMIE Holding 1Q24 results out

ADMIE Holding (IPTO) announced revenues of EUR 109.8m (+16.8% y-o-y), adjusted EBITDA of EUR 82.4m (+17.6% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 37.0m (+25.3% y-o-y) for 1Q24. Group net debt shaped at EUR 904.4m, down by EUR 50.1m y-t-d, despite heavy capex of EUR 97m (cash and cash equivalents EUR 272.0m). Consequently, ADMIE Holding’s (listed company) Revenue and Net profit for 1Q24 rose to EUR 18.8m and EUR 18.6m, up 25.2% and 25.4% YoY respectively. Finally, IPTO S.A. said that the AGM approved the distribution of a dividend to its shareholders the amount of EUR 58.96m, which according to our estimates implies a EUR c.0.058/share dividend for the listed company (ADMIE Holding has already distributed an interim dividend of EUR 0.058/share last October). 

LAMDA Development awards METLEN’s (Mytilineos) construction arm, METKA, the construction contract of the Riviera Galleria shopping Mall in Hellinikon

LAMDA announced the award of the Construction Contract of the retail/commercial destination Riviera Galleria to the construction company METKA ATE, 100% subsidiary of Metlen Energy & Metals (formerly MYTILINEOS). METKA ATE will undertake the construction of Riviera Galleria, which consists of 3 two-store buildings, forming a building complex of retail/commercial units and leisure areas, underground space for auxiliary uses, a service/loading/unloading building, a surrounding area as well as outdoor parking spaces. The duration of the construction is estimated at 26 months.

Motor Oil AGM today

Motor Oil will hold the AGM today, to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 1.40/share final dividend (DY: 5.7%, ex-date: 26 June)

Intracom Holdings ex-dividend on 25 June

The company announced that the stock will trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.0503722776, DY: 1.5%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will be made on 01 July.

Noval Property ex-dividend today

The stock is trading ex-dividend today (DPS: EUR 0.25, DY: 0.9%).

Trade Estates ex-dividend today

The stock is trading ex-dividend today (DPS: EUR 0.08, DY: 4.7%).

 

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The market ended the day with gains, up 1.3%, on a 109.5m turnover, with the banking sector also gaining momentum up 1.9%, supported by NBG’s 3.2% gains. On non-financials Ellaktor stood out rising 5.1%, while Titan and PPC marked a 3.4% and 3.1% advance.  On red, OPAP slipped -0.3%, Lamda was down -0.3%, whereas Sarantis ended flattish (-c0.2%).

MACRO

The Ministry of Finance announced plans to merge the Privatization Agency and the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) with the GrowthFund (The National Fund of Greece). Blackrock has been hired as an advisor for the set up of the fund. The new fund will commence with a EUR 300m cash balance.

NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE <ETE GA, OW>

Ex-DPS of EUR 0.36 set for 29 July; 2Q24 Results to be announced on 1 August 

LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA, OW>

The company announced that METKA (100% subsidiary of Metlen Energy & Metals, formerly MYTILINEOS) has been awarded the construction contract for the development of the retail/commercial destination Riviera Galleria (c23,000 sqm). The duration of the construction is estimated at 26 months. Expected

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Trading in positive territory throughout yesterday’s session, the ASE index advanced by 1.3% settling near intraday highs at 1,422.32 points tracking gains across most EU markets. Trade activity increased to €109.6m (albeit still below the 100-day moving average of €146.6m), with banks accounting for c62.4% of traded value rallying 1.9%. Key gainers were Ellaktor (+5.1%), Admie Holdings (+3.8%), TITC (+3.5%), National Bank (3.2%), PPC (+3.1%), Cenergy (+2.6%), Fourlis (+2.5%), Aegean Airlines (+2.3%), Autohellas (+2.1%) and AIA (+2.1%). On the other hand, Coca-Cola HBC, VIohalco, Noval, Intralot, OPAP, Lamda Development, Dimand and Sarantis were among the few names posting mild losses (<1%). EU futures point to a mixed opening today, with investors continuing to face a host of competing forces, including somewhat hawkish Fedspeak, political concerns in Europe and market expectations for policy easing.

ATHEX // MSCI will announce the results of its Annual Market Classification Review tomorrow, with focus on whether Greece will be placed on a watchlist for potential reclassification to Developed. Were Greece to secure its placement on a watchlist, MSCI would most likely provide a timeline for the consultation period and issues in focus (uptake of omnibus structures, stock lending/borrowing mechanisms). Of note is that in its Global Market Accessibility Review published earlier this month, the MSCI notes that it will not reflect in its review some improvements whose implementation is still ongoing and yet to be tested by institutional investors.

ADMIE Holding // Q1 2024 results beat our estimates with the affiliate company, IPTO, reporting Q1 2024 EBITDA of €82.4mn (+17.5% YoY), driven by increased interconnection rights (c€10mn impact in Q1 2024) and higher demand compared to the previous year. This increased profitability resulted in Q1 2024 net income of €36.9mn (+25.2% YoY) for IPTO, consequently boosting ADMIE Holding’s net profit to €18.6mn (+25.7% YoY). Moreover ADMIE Holding announced a dividend of  €0.124/share (5.6% yield) with ex-date on 2 September.

Real Consulting // We bolster our SME research program sponsored by the EBRD, initiating coverage on Real Consulting, a leading value-added reseller (VAR) of enterprise solutions with a prominent position in the Greek market and strong exposure to the digitization theme. The company serves as a one-stop shop for digital transformation, offering a wide range of IT services centered around platform development for large enterprises and public institutions. RC boasts a solid organic growth profile (c18% revenue CAGR, c23% EBITDA CAGR over 2024-27e) supported by project selection optionality, operating leverage from the cloud migration and better pricing with scale. Key to our thesis is the company’s long-standing relationship with SAP, where Real Consulting has been its main VAR for the Greek market for >15 years, effectively giving RC access to top-of-the-line products with minimal internal investment. Despite a >35% rally ytd, the stock is trading at c8x 2025e EV/EBITDA, not far from EU VAR peers but offering far superior growth. Our valuation is based on a DCF (9.2% WACC), yielding a baseline value of €5.3 per share. This effectively values the stock at c12.2x 2025e EV/EBITDA, at premium vs EU VARs but at discount vs the broad EU IT sector. Our research report is freely available here.

Lamda // Lamda announced that METKA (100% subsidiary of Metlen Energy & Metals) was awarded the construction of the Riviera Galleria mall, which is expected to be completed in 26 months. As a reminder the buildings capex for both the Ellinikon malls (Vouliagmenis mall and Riviera Galleria) is c€660m (based on the Master plan), of which we see some €120-140m for the development of the Riviera Galleria.

Noval Property // Ex-div today, net DPS of €0.025 per share (DY at 0.9%). Payment will commence on 27th June.

Trade Estates // Ex-div today, net DPS of €0.08 per share (dividend yield at 4.8%). Payment will commence on 26th June

ADMIE Holding // Announced a dividend of €0.124/share (5.6% yield) from FY’23 profits.

Motor Oil // AGM scheduled for today, with shareholders set to vote on standard AGM items including the approval of a total dividend payment of €1.80/share. Ex-date for the remaining dividend of €1.40/share scheduled for 26 June.

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.