Titan Cement: Στο 5,34% αυξήθηκαν οι ίδιες μετοχές. Alpha Trust- Ανδρομέδα: Στα €2,71 εκατ. τα καθαρά κέρδη το 2024. Η απόδοση του χαρτοφυλακίου το 2024 έφτασε το 9,23%, με την εσωτερική λογιστική αξία να διαμορφώνεται στα €31,42 εκατ. ή € 8,61 ανά μετοχή στις 31.12.2024. Στις 17 Μαρτίου 2025 διαπραγματευόταν στο Χρηματιστήριο Αθηνών με τιμή κλεισίματος € 6,52, καταγράφοντας discount 27,93%.
BriQ Properties: Απέκτησε οικόπεδο στη Νάουσα της Πάρου έναντι €1,25 εκατ.
Σε αναβάθμιση των αξιολογήσεων της Alpha Bank κατά μία βαθμίδα σε Βaa2/P-2 προχώρησε η Moody’s, με το outlook να παραμένει θετικό. Παράλληλα, προχώρησε σε αναβάθμιση της αξιολόγησης για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς, σε Βaa2/P-2, με το outlook να αλλάζει σε σταθερό.
ΤτΕ: Στα €74,75 δισ. τα δάνεια στους servivers στα τέλη του 2024 έναντι 70,78 δισ. ευρώ το προηγούμενο τρίμηνο.
Επεκτείνει το αμυντικό hub στο Βόλο η Metlen. Προσύμφωνα για νέες αγορές ακινήτων στη ΒΙ.ΠΕ. Αναπτύσσει σε συνολική έκταση 60 στρεμμάτων εγκαταστάσεις για την κατασκευή αρμάτων και εξοπλισμού για τεθωρακισμένα.
Προϋπολογισμός, 1ο δίμηνο: Πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα ύψους €2.721 εκ., έναντι στόχου για πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα €2.029 εκ. Τα έσοδα από φόρους ανήλθαν σε €11.901 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα κατά €527 εκ. ή 4,6% έναντι του στόχου. Οι δαπάνες ανήλθαν στα €11.034 εκ. και παρουσιάζονται μειωμένες κατά €590 εκ. έναντι του στόχου
ATHEX headed north yesterday, setting a new 14-year high, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.53% at 1,705.16 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.46%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.04% Banks Index: +0.41%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 386.0m, up from Monday’s EUR 110.0m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, with OPAP in focus.
HEADLINES
Macro Headlines
Central government budget execution January-February 2025 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-February 2025, the central government budget recorded a EUR 629m surplus vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 51m (based on the 2025 Budget introductory report) and an EUR 1,437m surplus in the same period in 2024. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 2,721m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 2,029m and an EUR 3,378m surplus in the same period in 2024.
Comment: It is noted that an amount of EUR 468m, which refers to the time differentiation of payments from ordinary budget and an amount of EUR 473m which refers to the time differentiation of PIB payments, do not affect the outcome in fiscal terms.
Sector Headlines
Moody’s upgrades Piraeus and Alpha Bank ratings
Moody’s upgraded yesterday the long-term deposit rating of Piraeus Bank to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed the outlook to stable. In the same vein, it also upgraded the long-term deposit rating of Alpha Bank to Baa2 from Baa3, with positive outlook.
Company Headlines
OPAP || BUY || CP EUR 17.47 | TP 19.70
4Q24e preview: Strong quarter despite tough comps on increase sports betting appetite, beating FY24 guidance
Solid 4Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 4Q24e results today, amc, while it will hold a cc the tomorrow (16:00 Athens time). We expect a strong finish for 2024, which will conclude another record year, owing to strong Betting and Lottery and the outperformance of Online Casino. On the flip side Instant & Passives category and VLTs continued to underperform in 4Q24, due to strong online competition despite the commercial plan of OPAP. As per management guidance, OpEx have normalized due to the reduction in advertising spend as Eurojackpot rollout campaign was tempered. The quarter was marked by a) strong retail and online betting performance as well as favourite payouts despite the tough comps vs. 4Q23 b) solid lottery performance, and c) the continues growth rate of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and betting activity.
4Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast revenues (GGR) of EUR 626.1m (vs. EUR 581.2m in 4Q23 +7.7% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 236.2m (vs. EUR 210.2m in 4Q23 12.4% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 152.7m vs. EUR 100.6m in 4Q23 (51.7% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 364.7m, accounting for 58.2% of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated at EUR 116.9m (+2.0% y-o-y); accounting for 18.7% of total GGR vs. 19.7% in 4Q23 (-100pbs). Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to increase both q-o-q and y-o-y at 37.7% up from 36.2% in 4Q23 (+160bps). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 63.0m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 28.7m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter. For FY24e we estimate GGR of EUR 2.27bn up by 8.9% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 823m (+12.7% y-o-y) and net profit up by 25.4% y-o-y to EUR 512.1m, beating our estimates.
Aegean Airlines CC highlights
During the conference call, management highlighted that: a) the strong demand from inbound and international passengers gives the company more confidence during the weak season of the year and mitigates seasonality in revenues despite increased flight schedule activity from other European airlines and the inflationary pressures b) management expects unit cost increases c. 5% in labor, fuel, CO2 related costs, and airport charges during FY25, c) in respect to the MRO center management commended that they build capacity and it is in early stages to offer profits in the first 2-3 years of operations, there is also a minor investment plan of c. EUR 5m/year over the following years and also a remaining payment of EUR 46m for the concession for the AIA in the next 6 years, d) CaPex of the year will be increased by EUR 50m due to a pre-delivery payment of 8 aircraft, e) following the GTF engine groundings, FY24 was the first year with material impact, and now the management expects groundings until 2027 with the peak during 2025-26 although every year the company is receiving 5 new aircraft that significantly increases capacity, (the new aircraft deliveries in FY24 was not contaminated with engine issues) f) Aegean invested EUR 30m in Volotea (EUR 25m in a convertible bond & EUR 5m in stock purchases) and management stated that is open to increase its investment following the strong top-line and EBITDA growth of FY24, the decision will be made until July 2025, g) the company has to receive additionally 16 aircraft until 2028, and the last 8 aircraft, recently ordered will be delivered until 2032. e) in terms of capacity management stated that this year the available seats that will be offered will be increased by 8-9% y-o-y (total of 21.5m seats).
Metlen signed a preliminary agreement for the acquisition of 19-acre property to expand its defense hub in Volos
The company announced that signed a preliminary agreement for the acquisition of 19-acre property within the Volos A’ Industrial Zone, including industrial facilities of 5.000 m² and is already planning to acquire an adjacent 8-acre property near the single area of 32-acre plot acquired by the company in 2023. Metlen is currently constructing an industrial unit for the production of high-specialization metal structures to strengthen its presence in the defense Sector.
Bank of Cyprus in exclusive talks with CVC for Ethniki Insurance in Cyprus-Press
According to newmoney, Bank of Cyprus is in exclusive talks with CVC Capital Partners for acquiring Ethniki Insurance in Cyprus. Bank of Cyprus has two franchises in the insurance business, Eurolife (Life) and Genikes Insurance (Non-Life), that generated a recurring profit after tax of EUR 40.7m in 2024. Eurolife grasped a market share of 27.3% in Life and Genikes Insurance a 13.7% market share in Non-Life in 2023. The move is in line with BOC strategy to invigorate non-interest income.
Fais Group IPO commences today
The subscription period begins today and will be completed on Friday. The company announced that the minimum price was set at EUR 4.50 and the maximum at EUR 5.00/share. Recall that the company will issue up to 11,375,625 new shares, o/w 9,100,500 new shares and 2,275,125 existing. The trading of new shares is scheduled for 27 March. Optima bank is among the underwriters.
HCMC approved the right of Masdar to redeem the remaining share of Terna Energy
Terna Energy announced that the redemption right relates to 2,557,511 shares in return for the payment of
EUR 20.00 per share in cash. It is noted that Masdar will undertake to pay the clearing rights in favour of the Hellenic Central Securities Depository and the date of suspension of trading of the shares on ATHEX was set on 2 April 2025.
ADMIE and the Italian Grid Operator seek EU support for the Greece-Italy interconnection (press)
According to Euro2day.gr, IPTO (ADMIE) and the Italian Terna, have submitted a formal request to the EU for the inclusion of the Greece-Italy interconnection in the EU’s PMI/PCI projects (projects of major and common interest).
Alpha Trust Andromeda 2024 results, proposed DPS of EUR 0.32
Net profit reached EUR 2.7m in 2024 vs. EUR 6.4m in 2023and NAV was shaped at EUR 31.4m in 2024 from EUR 29.9m in 2023. NAV/share stood at EUR 8.61 and hence the stock is trading at a deep 23% discount to its NAV. The BoD will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.32/share (+7% y-o-y, Div. Yield: 4,8%).
Jumbo will hold an AGM today to approve the DPS of EUR 0.4667/share
The company will hold its AGM today to approve among others the cash distribution of EUR 0.4667/share that will be adjusted upwards excluding the company’s own shares. (DY:1.7%, ex-date: 24 March).
Autohellas AGM on Tuesday 8 April
The company announced that it will hold its AGM on Tuesday 8 April to approve among others the dividend distribution of EUR 0.85 per share. (DY: 7.1%, ex- date 10 April).
The market rose a modest 0.5% on Tuesday, recording a new 14-year high reaching 1,705lvl, with daily turnover at EUR 388m, on Monday’s orders execution realised the day after. The banking index balanced around flat (+0.4%), with Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank gaining 2.6% and 2.2% respectively, whereas NBG and Eurobank both recorded 1.1% losses. On non-financials, AIA rose 2.3%, Metlen posted c.1% gains, Titan and Cenergy, OPAP, PPC and Jumbo finishing on the flatline. On red, Sarantis lost 3.5%, Motor Oil slipped 1.7%, Lamda marked a 0.9% drop and GEK Terna was marginally down 0.6%. OPAP is due to report FY24 numbers today, after the market close.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to Ministry of Economy and Finance preliminary data, the State Budget balance on a modified cash basis recorded a surplus of EUR 629m in the period of January – February 2025, against a target for a EUR 51m deficit and a EUR 1.4bn surplus in the corresponding period of 2024. Moreover, the primary surplus amounted to EUR 2.7bn, vs the target for a EUR 2bn surplus and a c.EUR 3.4bn surplus in January-February 2024.
BANKS
Moody’s upgraded Piraeus Bank’s credit rating to Baa2 with a stable outlook and Alpha Bank to Baa2 with a positive outlook, from Baa3 previously for both banks.
OPAP <OPAP GA, OW>
OPAP is due to report FY24 numbers today, after the market close. We expect another good year, with GGR up 5.5% to EUR 2.2bn, driven by solid contribution of online sportsbetting and casino, as well as core license related activities (sportsbetting, lotteries), a flattish performance in VLTs and a softer contribution from Hellenic Lotteries. We anticipate EBITDA for the year to stand in the upper range of guidance (EUR 750-770m) to EUR 775m, up c.6% yoy with net profit of EUR 450m. We expect final DPS of EUR 1.0, bringing total FY24 DPS to EUR 1.60/share, indicating dividend yield of 9.1%. A conference call is scheduled for tomorrow, Thursday 20th March at 16.00 GR time (14.00 UK time, 9.00am NY time). Conference call Dial ins: GR +30 211 180 2000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA +1 516 447 5632, Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872. Conference call can be accessed also via webcast https://www.opap.gr/24Q4 or https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/opap24Q4.html
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Fitch Ratings upgraded Bank of Cyprus to BBB- from BB+ with a positive outlook, reflecting the sound profitability, improved asset quality and strengthened capital. On other news, according to press reports, Bank of Cyprus is in negotiations with CVC for the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance Cyprus.
The operations of Ethniki Insurance in Cyprus are rather minor with a market share of c.3% (vs. a market share in life of c.30% currently for Bank of Cyprus). Thus, we expect the impact to be marginal.
AEGEAN <AEGN GA, OW>
Conference call highlights: 1/ Aegean has invested EUR 25m in a Volotea convertible bond and an additional c.EUR 5m in common shares (total c.EUR 30m for a 17% stake); 2/ Aegean is in discussions for the second tranche in investing in Volotea with announcements expected around June (in line with the original announcement); 3/ management of Aegean is very happy with the performance of Volotea, which recorded an EBITDA of EUR 148m in 2024 (+54% yoy); 4/ on the market Aegean is planning to add in 2025 9% capacity with the competition between 6-7% up, so Aegean is marginally higher; 5/ According to management, GTF engine issue will be with us for another 2 years, with the peak of the issue (in terms of number of groundings) towards the end 2025-26 i.e. 2026 the worse year; 6/ compensation has not been fully disclosed but does not fully cover the cost with the net negative impact in 2024 at about EUR 20m (should be similar in 2025E).
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
Metlen announced the strategic decision to expand in defense sector, after signing a preliminary agreement for the acquisition of a land property in the industrial area of Volos. The complex will specialize in the construction of armored vehicles, as well as components, equipment and specialized structures for heavy military vehicles. Metlen is already active in large scale and advanced metal constructions, with more details due on CMD at LSE on April 28th.
AVAX <AVAX GA, OW>
AVAX announced that Anthony Mitzalis, Executive Director of the company, acquired a 33.34% stake in Honeysuckle Properties from Stelios Christodoulou, which directly holds 7.5% of total voting rights of AVAX. Following the transaction, Stelios Christodoulou only holds a c.7.18% direct stake in AVAX.
TERNA ENERGY <TENERGY GA>
The shares will cease trading from the ASE on April 2 following the end of the squeeze out.
ADMIE <IPTO GA>
Reportedly, the ADMIE and Serverfarm joint venture will construct a data center in Kryoneri, Attica, with a capacity of 40 MW.
Market Comment // Swinging between gains and losses, the ASE Index closed +0.53% higher on Tuesday, closing at 1,705.16, marking a 14-year high. Trading activity surged to €386m (c75% accounted for by banks), significantly above the 100-day moving average of €168mn. Attica Bank led gainers soaring +6.95%, followed by Real Consulting (+5.98%), Bank of Cyprus (+3.93%), Thrace Plastics (3.47%) and Optima (+3.32%), with Alpha Bank (+2.68%), AIA (+2.38%), Piraeus Bank (+2.28%) also posting strong gains. Conversely, Sarantis shed -3.56%, followed by Motor Oil (-1.7%), Fourlis (-1.22%), Eurobank (-1.17%), NBG (-1.13%), Alter Ego (-1.03%), Lamda (-0.9%), Dimand (-0.82%), Gek Terna (-0.64%) and HelleniQ Energy (-0.58%). Today, EU futures signal a mixed start as investors are cautiously perched on the edge before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
OPAP // Q4 and FY24 results today after close. We expect a robust quarter, with Q4 GGR +7%, thanks to a very strong performance of online (market +29%, with Stoiximan accounting for c50%). This will lead to adj. Q4 EBITDA of c€215m on our numbers, +9% yoy. Overall, for FY24, we project EBITDA of €804m, +8% yoy on an adjusted basis and >4% above the upper end of mgt’s guidance (€770m). The focal point at the announcement will be the outlook for FY25, as 2024 has set a very high bar for this year (we model flattish EBITDA in 2025). On the dividend front, we pencil in another €0.73 DPS leading to a FY24 dividend of €1.33 per share.
Economy // Budget execution momentum continues unfettered in the first 2 months of 2025, with the primary surplus settling at €2.7bn, some €0.7bn better than the target for the respective period. This is driven mainly by the income related to the new Concession Agreement for Attica Motorway which affects – fiscally – 2024. Of note is that underlying tax collection is also above expectations in the first two months.
Greek Banks // Moody’s Ratings upgraded Piraeus Bank’s long- and short-term deposit ratings to Baa2/P-2, with a stable outlook, reflecting improved asset quality, strong earnings, a low-cost base, and solid liquidity. Alpha Bank’s deposit ratings were also upgraded to Baa2/P-2, with the positive outlook maintained, driven by enhancing solvency and financial fundamentals. These follow on from the recent upgrade of the sovereign rating.
Fais Group // IPO to launch today and run through Friday, with Fais Group targeting up to €55m in proceeds through the issuance of 9.1m new shares and the sale of 2.3m existing shares. The price range has been set at €4.5-5 per share, with the final offer price to be announced on March 21st. Trading on the ATHEX is expected to commence on March 27th. The net funds raised from the IPO will be allocated toward enhancing working capital to accelerate the expansion of the commercial business, buying out minority shareholders in existing operations, refinancing bridge loans to optimize the capital structure, developing the physical store network, and funding new investments in real estate.
Metlen // The Group announced the expansion of its industrial complex in Volos with the signing of a preliminary agreement to acquire a 19-acre property with industrial facilities, while planning to acquire an adjacent 8-acre plot, adding to its existing 32-acre site. The expanded 60-acre hub will focus on armored vehicles, components, and specialized military structures. Once fully developed, it will comprise five independent plants.
ADMIE Holding // IPTO and Terna have jointly requested the inclusion of the Greece-Italy electricity interconnection in the EU’s 2nd PCI/PMI list, aiming to secure permitting acceleration and funding. The project, already part of ENTSO-E’s development plan, will triple exchange capacity from 500 MW to 1,500 MW, enhancing energy security, market integration, and price convergence.
Aegean Airlines // During yesterday’s conference call mgt echoed a positive message on summer bookings and air activity execution (network design, aircraft utilization, efficient mix, cash flow generation), highlighting the solid position of the carrier in the market, while cautioning on pressure from regulatory/inflationary cost challenges (navigation, handling, CO2, emissions, SAF, payroll). Current trends point to growth in the seasonally small Q1’25.
Jumbo // EGM today (at 16:00 Athens time) with shareholders called to approve the distribution of a €0.47/share special dividend (1.7% yield, ex div on 24th March).
BriQ Properties // BriQ announced the acquisition of a 1,500 sqm plot in Naoussa, Paros, in the Agios Georgios area, adjacent to its existing Mr & Mrs White Paros hotel. The purchase price amounted to €1.25m, with the company planning to expand the hotel on the newly acquired land, significantly increasing its capacity.
Alpha Trust Andromeda // FY’24 results: Gross income shapes lower at €4.03m, down from €8.9m in 2023, owing to the decline in valuation gains to €1.6m in 2024 vs €4.6m in 2023. As a result net profit dropped to €2.9m, vs net profit of €6.5m a year ago. The portfolio performance in 2024 reached 9.23% with group NAV increasing to €31.4m, or €8.61/share at the end of the year. The BoD is proposing a c7% rise in the dividend distribution to €0.32 share (4.8% div. yield).
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