Morgan Stanley: ∆ίνει ψήφο εµπιστοσύνης στις ελληνικές τράπεζες. Οι αξιολογήσεις για τις ελληνικές τράπεζες είναι overweight, δεδοµένων των ελκυστικών θεµελιωδών στοιχείων και της αξίας τους. Η τιµή-στόχος είναι το 1,99 ευρώ για την Alpha Βank, τα 7,50 ευρώ για την Εθνική Τράπεζα, τα 4,16 ευρώ για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς και το 1,95 ευρώ για τη µετοχή της Eurobank.
Alpha Αστικά Ακίνητα: Έκτακτη ΓΣ στις 19/1 για επιστροφή κεφαλαίου 2,2 ευρώ/µετοχή.
HelleniQ Energy: Στο 40,41% µειώθηκε το ποσοστό της Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings, στο 31,18% του ΤΑΙΠΕ∆. Χωρίς εκπλήξεις υπερψηφίστηκε ο κρατικός Προϋπολογισµός για το 2024 από τη Βουλή, µε το “ναι” µόνο των κυβερνητικών βουλευτών. Οι αµυντικές δαπάνες υπερψηφίστηκαν µε 249 “ναι” έναντι 51 “όχι”.
ATHEX headed south on Friday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.35% at 1,290.79 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.44%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.41%, Banks Index: -0.39%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 177.5m, up from Thursday’s EUR 112.8m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 1.23% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +1.36%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.14%, Banks index: +2.72%). We expect the international markets to set the tone in ATHEX today.
Greek Parliament approves the State budget for 2024e
As expected the Greek Parliament approved yesterday the State budget for 2024e with 158 votes in favor. As a reminder, the state budget for 2024e envisages 2.3% and 2.9 GDP Growth, 4.1% and 2.6% inflation, primary surplus of 1.1% and 2.1% and debt/GDP at 160.3% and 152.2% for 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Greece proceeded with the early repayment of EUR 5.3bn bilateral loans (Press)
According to various press reports, Greece proceeded on Friday as expected with the repayment of EUR 5.3bn bilateral loans, ahead their maturity in 2024 and 2025.
Scope Ratings Upgrades its Growth estimates on Greece (Press)
According to Euro2day.gr, Scope Ratings upgraded its growth estimate on Greece to 2.2% for 2024e (from 1.6% previously) and to 2.3% for 2025e, expecting the Debt/GDP ratio to drop to 141% by 2028e.
HFSF to select financial advisor for Piraeus divestment – Press
Reportedly (euro2day), HFSF will select this week the financial advisor for the divestment of its 27.0% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings.
OTE Cancellation & deletion of own shares
The company announced that the 8,245,534 own shares will be cancelled and deleted from ATHEX tomorrow. These shares were acquired during the period from 01/05/2023 to 31/10/2023, with an average purchase price of EUR 13.99. Following this capital reduction due to the cancellation of 8,245,534 shares, the company’s share capital amounts to EUR 1,182,945,696.79 (from EUR 1,206,280,558.01 before the reduction) divided into 418,002,013 registered shares (from 426,247,547 registered shares before the cancellation), with a nominal value of EUR 2.83 each. We estimate that the move will increase EPS by 1.9% and hence the positive impact is small.
MOH trades ex-dividend
Motor Oil will trade today ex-interim dividend of EUR 0.409/share (DY: 1.6%).
Terna Energy amends the common bond loan terms
During the bondholders’ meeting of the 150m outstanding Bond held on Friday, Terna Energy approved the amendment of all three bond loan terms, namely to a) abolish the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio clause, b) to abolish the Debt/Equity ratio and c) to remove the withdrawal or replacement in any way, of Mr. George Peristeris from the position of the Chairman and executive member of the Board of Directors of Terna Energy as a material change of the bond terms.
Ideal Holdings common bond loan to commence trading today
The trading of the 100,000 bonds on the fixed income segment of the regulated market of ATHEX commences today. The ticker symbol of the Bond is “ΙΝΤΕΚΟ1” in Greek and “ΙΝΤΕΚΒ1” in latin font. The commencement trading price of the Bonds is EUR 1,000 per Bond, namely 100% of the nominal value. Recall that the final yield of the Bonds was set at 5.50% and the Bonds’ interest rate at 5.50% per annum as well as the net proceeds of the issue amounted to EUR 95.8m, of which EUR 74.8m will be used within 3 months to repay an existing bank loan and EUR 21.0m will be used to finance future acquisitions of companies by the group within 24 months.
Building permit issued for the Casino in Hellinikon (press)
According to Ypodomes.gr, IRC Hellinikon, (a 51%/49% JV between Hardrock international and GEKTERNA), secured the building permit for the landmark casino and Hotel project in Ellinikon. According to Capital.gr, in a special event this Friday, on 22nd December, the JV will officially kick off the construction of the project, which is expected to be completed in three years at a total budget of EUR 1bn.
Triple witching and FTSE rebalancing drove turnover to EUR 175m, with benchmark index down 35bps. Uninspiring session for most large caps, with mixed performance among the four systemic. Alpha and NBG down 1% and 0.8% respectively. Correction for Jumbo, down 1.4%. HELLENiQ also down 70bps. Motor Oil trades ex-DPS today.
Pariament approved yesterday the budget for 2024. We remind that the budget for 2024 assumes a GDP growth of 2.9% with a primary surplus of 2.1%.
BANKS
Reportedly, the banks have agreed a settlement with the Competition Commission over an investigation on net fees and commission charged in the 2019 period. Based on the settlement (which could be announced this week) the fines for the sector could exceed EUR 40m.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH LN, OW>
S&P upgraded Bank of Cyprus too BB from BB-, with a positive outlook.
LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA>
Lamda announced that it completed the share capital increase of Lamda Malls, though the in-kind contribution of the share of Lamda Ellinikon Malls, Malls Management Services and The Mall Athens. The share capital of Lamda Malls will now stand at EUR 496m. The aforementioned actions aim to consolidate all activities related to the Malls/Retail Developments (The Mall Athens, Golden Hall, Mediterranean Cosmos, Designer Outlet Athens, Vouliagmenis Mall and Riviera Galleria) under the control of Lamda Malls.
Market Comment // Despite the positive opening on Friday, the Greek market lost momentum fast, with the main index ending 0.4% lower and settling at 1,290.8 points. Trading activity surged on the back of the flow from the FTSE/Athex index series semi-annual review, with turnover settling at €178mn, namely well above the 100-day avg of €117mn. Among blue chips, EYDAP led laggards, dropping 5.2%, followed by ADMIE Holding (-2.9%), Quest Holdings (-2.7%) and Entersoft (-2.4%) and Sarantis (-2.2%), while Viohalco (-1.6%), Jumbo (-1.4%), Lamda Development (-1.3%) and Alpha Bank (-1.0%) all posted losses of >1%. On the other hand, Ellaktor topped the leaderboard, advancing by 4.3%, followed by Epsilon Net and Piraeus Port Authority which surged by 3.8% and 3.2% respectively. Moreover, OPAP, Piraeus Bank and GEK Terna also finished on the green, recording moderate gains of <1%. Today, we anticipate the market to start on the back foot, following Fed officials’ pushback comments against bets of aggressive interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Economy // As expected, the Greek budget was voted in Parliament during the weekend enjoying the support of the ND MPs (158 positive votes). 142 MPs voted against the budget
Greek Banks // According to Kathimerini, Greek banks are considering extending the mortgage rate freeze on performing loans until the end of 2024, by capping the 3-month Euribor at its late March 2023 level of 2.8%.
Greek banks // According to euro2day, the final cost of the mortgage subsidy scheme for vulnerable borrowers is estimated at €12mn for the banks, which is lower than initially anticipated.
Aegean Airlines // We issued an update report named “Maintaining Altitude” recalibrating our numbers driven by the robust 2023 picture. We see strong top line growth (+26% yoy) for the year underpinned by sustained fares at elevated levels, while we pencil in a higher than anticipated decline in unit fuel costs, thus lifting materially (c17%) our 2023e EBITDA to €415m (+51% yoy, +54% vs 2019). Looking ahead, we factor in limited visibility given geopolitical tensions in the region, and we partly account for a cost hike in 2024-25e owing to the Airbus Family neo engine problems, erring on the conservative side. Against this backdrop, we reduce our EBITDA forecasts by c8-12% in 2024-25e, thus envisaging a decline in 2024e EBITDA to €365m (-12% yoy, but still +35% vs 2019) before a bounce in 2025 (+5% yoy). Our DCF-based valuation returns a 12-mth PT of €13.8. Despite the >120% ytd rally, the valuation remains attractive at c5.5x 12-mth fwd EV/EBITDAR, namely within the long-term average 5-6x historic range, as profits have also surged in tandem.
Lamda Development // LD announced the successful completion of the SCI in kind for Lamda Malls S.A through the contribution of Lamda Ellinikon MALLS Holdings S.M.S.A., Malls Management Services S.M.S.A. and The Mall Athens S.M.S.A. owned by LD. Following the SCI, LD now holds a 95.44% stake in Lamda Malls, with the remaining 4.56% owned by its foreign subsidiary, Lamda Development (Netherlands) B.V.
Motor Oil // Ex-div today, €0.40 interim dividend (1.6% yield). Payment commences on 22nd December.
IDEAL Holdings // The €100m common bond loan issued last week will commence trading on the Fixed Income Securities category of the Regulated Market of the Athens Exchange today.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
