∆ιενεργείται σήµερα δηµοπρασία για την επανέκδοση Οµολόγων του Ελληνικού ∆ηµοσίου, σταθερού επιτοκίου 3,875%, λήξης 12 Μαρτίου 2029. Το ποσό που θα δηµοπρατηθεί θα είναι έως €250 εκ.
Dimand: Με σύσταση «buy» και τιµή-στόχο στα 11 ευρώ ξεκινά κάλυψη για τον τίτλο η Eurobank Equities.
UBS: κάλυψη των ελληνικών τραπεζών µε αξιολογήσεις αγοράς (Buy). Oι ελληνικές τράπεζες βγαίνουν δυναµικά από την ελληνική κρίση χρέους και είναι σε θέση να επωφεληθούν από την ισχυρή µακροοικονοµική ανάκαµψη και τις πιστώσεις στις επιχειρήσεις. Βλέπει άνοδο στα συντηρητικά τριετή επιχειρηµατικά σχέδια Ξεκινάµε µε αξιολογήσεις αγοράς για τις τέσσερις συστηµικές τράπεζες. Για την Alpha Bank τιµή-στόχος τα €2,30, για τη Eurobank τιµή-στόχος τα €2,60, για την Εθνική Τράπεζα τιµή-στόχος τα €11,00 και για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς τιµή-στόχος τα €5,50.
ΙΟΒΕ: Υποχώρησε ο δείκτης οικονοµικού κλίµατος τον Ιούνιο στις 110,6 µονάδες, έναντι 111 µονάδων τον προηγούµενο µήνα και 109,2 µονάδων ένα έτος πριν. Αναφέρει εξασθένιση του κλίµατος λόγω της υποχώρησης σε βιοµηχανία και λιανικό εµπόριο, µε την καταναλωτική εµπιστοσύνη, τις υπηρεσίες και τις κατασκευές να ενισχύονται.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Μικρή άνοδος τζίρου στις επιχειρήσεις τον Μάιο (στα €30,8 δις., +1,5% σε ετήσια βάση). Τη µεγαλύτερη αύξηση στον κύκλο εργασιών σε ετήσια βάση παρουσίασαν οι επιχειρήσεις του τοµέα ∆ραστηριότητες Υπηρεσιών Παροχής Καταλύµατος και Υπηρεσιών Εστίασης, κατά 14,8%.
ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index eased by 0.63% at 1,449.40 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.74%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.24% Banks Index: -0.27%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 99.0m, down from Monday’s EUR 102.8m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today, eyeing the international markets.
Macro Headlines
Greece taps additional EUR 250m through the 2029 Bond
PDMA announced that it will tap the markets today with EUR 250m through the reopening of the existing 5-year bond with a 3.875% coupon.
Sector Headlines
Government to impose a special levy on the excess profits of the natural gas plants to fund subsidies on tariffs (press)
Following yesterday’s meeting of the Greek PM with the energy minister, the government is expected to announce today new regulations on the electricity wholesale market. According to press reports, there will be a special levy on the excess profits of the natural gas plants, (OCGTs and CCGTs) for the July-August period, while lignite and Hydro power plants will be excluded; the proceeds will be channeled towards the subsidies on the variable retail electricity tariffs, so as not exceed EUR 150/MWh in August and September.
Company Headlines
Attica Bank estimates that NPE loss won’t exceed EUR 400m
Attica bank announced that DBRS Morningstar has completed the pre-rating of its NPE portfolio with a total book value of EUR ca2.3bn and the bank estimates that the additional loss arising from a possible sale of the aforementioned portfolio through securitization under the HAPS III Program will not exceed EUR 400.0m. Press reports (euro2day) indicate that NPE loss of Pancreta Bank is estimated at EUR 420.0m and therefore the loss for the combined entity is estimated at EUR 820.0m. The CEO of the bank announced that both banks will apply for HAPS III Program next week, the request for the merger with Pancreta will be submitted to BoG by end of July, the legal merger is expected in 3Q24 and the share capital increase in early 4Q24.
OTE agreed with Nova to offer sports content through their pay TV platforms
The company announced that it has entered in a wholesale agreement with Nova Telecommunications regarding the cross-supply of their sports channels, offering more sports content in a single subscription. According to 1Q24 data, Cosmote TV had 687,691 subscribers and reportedly (mononews) Nova has a base of more than 400k subscribers. In our view, the agreement is on the right track to tackle with piracy (reportedly 600k-900k connections with estimated revenues of EUR >125m). The news is positive and unexpected.
HELLENiQ ENERGY to proceed today with the 5-year bond issuance (press)
HELLENiQ ENERGY will proceed today with the issuance of a new senior, EUR 400m, 5-year bond, aiming to repay the existing EUR 600m bond maturing this October.
ADMIE Holding declares a EUR 0.058/share interim dividend
ADMIE Holding declared yesterday a EUR 0.058/share interim dividend for 2024 (Ex-date: 9 September, DY: 2.58%).
Bank of Cyprus to be listed on ATHEX again?-Press
According to press reports, Bank of Cyprus is close to be listed again on ATHEX. Recall that the stock is listed on both Cyprus Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange and was delisted from ATHEX in 2016.
*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)
The ASE Index dropped 0.6% yesterday on c,EUR 99m ADTV. Performance for the banking sector was mixed with Piraeus and NBG up c.0.4% but with Eurobank and Alpha down c.0.9%. Energy related shares were impacted by the news of a windfall tax led by PPC (down 2.6%). On the flipside, GEK Terna recorded gains of 1.4%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
ENERGY INDUSTRY
PM confirmed yesterday in an interview that the Ministry of Energy will implement a windfall tax on abnormal profits from electricity generation for July and August, as prices have skyrocketed due to high demand for electricity. Reportedly, the details of the windfall tax will be announced by the Ministry this morning.
The news is negative for electricity producers, but we should expect vertically integrated parties to manage their generation and supply margins accordingly.
GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
We have updated our model following the news on the sale of Terna Energy and the positive outlook on Greek infrastructure projects. Upon maturity of the existing projects, GEK Terna will enjoy in 2028E an EBITDA of >EUR 700m, on our numbers, with significant flow of dividends in the medium to long term. Since our initiation report in January, the shares of GEK Terna are up 29%. The stock currently trades on 8.5x EV/EBITDA on 2028E, after consolidating fully the EBITDA generation of large projects undertaken in 2024-25E. The cash inflow from Terna Energy provides further upside optionality in view of a strong EUR 2bn firepower.
HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>
Hellenic Telecom announced that it has entered in a wholesale agreement with NOVA regarding the cross-supply of their sports channels, which so far were offered on an exclusive basis on each Party’s platform. The initiative offers not only convenience to consumers but also the combined sports content in an affordable price. Accroding to OTE, the agreement will be an effective policy against piracy, which distorts the Pay-TV market, the content providers and revenues of the Greek State and is anticipated to drive the growth of the total Pay-TV market
ATTICA BANK <TATT GA>
Attica Bank announced that DBRS Morningstar completed the pre-rating of the NPE portfolio with a total book value of EUR 2.3bn. The bank estimates the additional loss from the potential sale via Hercules III at not over EUR 400m.
Market comment // The Greek market traded in negative territory throughout Tuesday’s session with the main index finishing at 1,449.4 points, ticking 0.63% lower. Trading activity remained thin for yet another session, with turnover settling at €98.4mn, lower than the 100-day avg of 144.7mn. Among blue chips, Lamda led laggards shedding 2.8%, followed by PPC (-2.6%), ELHA (-2.6%), Metlen (-2.5%), Viohalco (-2.5%), and ELPE (-1.7%), while MOH, Ellaktor, ATHEX, Fourlis, Austriacard and OTE also finished on >1% losses. On the other hand, technology shares led the gainers, with Profile surging 6.5%, followed by Real Consulting (+3.8%) and Performance (+2.6%). GEK Terna, Papoutsanis, Intralot and Dimand also traded in the green. Today, EU futures indicate a mixed opening as investors finesse bets on the global monetary policy outlook while assessing the read-through from a potential Republican administration.
Energy // The PM announced in an interview that the government decided to impose an emergency levy only on natural gas electricity producers for July and August. The proceeds from this taxation will be used to alleviate electricity bills in August, as current price trends would otherwise result in a sharp increase for consumers.
OTE // In an effort to crack down on illegal streaming, the two major Pay TV players (Cosmote and Nova) announced yesterday they have sealed an agreement providing wholesale cross-access to their content. The monthly top-up will be up to €3, effectively resulting in a fully converged TV offering. The deal is in general positive given the c900K illegal subscriptions corresponding to a “black” market pool of c€160-200m, although this benefit ought to be partly offset by some attrition stemming from business customers already subscribed to both providers. Reportedly, the aim is for more providers to join this initiative.
Dimand // We expand our SME research program sponsored by the EBRD initiating coverage on Dimand, one of Greece’s leading developers focused on sustainability, managing 20, varied-use projects with a GDV of c€1.2bn upon completion. Contrary to many developers, Dimand engages mostly in asset monetization and capital recycling via the selling of its participation in the SPVs developing the properties, with mgt targeting levered IRRs >20% and returns on capital generated upon project exits >1.5x. With 20 projects poised to be completed over 2024-27e, asset turnover is set to increase markedly in the coming years helping the group bolster its balance sheet, monetize the capital invested and increase ROE. We project a total c€180m profit crystallized through to 2027e, of which some €30m in 2024e. The stock has suffered 43% losses since its IPO, weighed down by both industry (rate hikes, tighter credit conditions, broad sector de-rating) and idiosyncratic factors (complexity, path to asset monetization). In general, as a group, global developers have seen their 50% valuation premium to spot NAV swing to a c20% discount, but as we show in this report, developers with 2-digit ROEs normally trade at or above 1x P/NAV. Against this background, with Dimand at 1.1x 2023 P/NAV but at <1.0x on 2024e – given the >€50m capital generation embedded in our numbers – we find the stock largely de-risked at these levels. We expect the shares to trade higher in the valuation spectrum as confidence in the company’s ability to sustain ROE in the 2-digits grows. Our SOTP-based PT of €11.0 indicates that the current price effectively incorporates solely the well telegraphed 20 projects and the value of the services business, while leaving as free option value from project Skyline and the recently announced projects. Our research report is freely available here.
Banks // According to the latest data released by the BoG, Eurosystem funding was reduced m-o-m to €8.0bn in Jun’24 (with TLTRO at €7.9bn) compared to €10.5bn in May’24.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
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