Ο αμερικανικός οίκος αξιολόγησης Moody’s έδωσε στην Ελλάδα την επενδυτική βαθμίδα, αναβαθμίζοντας την πιστοληπτική της ικανότητα στο Βaa3 από Βa1, ενώ άλλαξε το outlook από θετικό σε σταθερό. Στην ανάλυση του ο οίκος σημειώνει: “Η αναβάθμιση αντανακλά την άποψή μας ότι το πιστωτικό προφίλ της Ελλάδας έχει πλέον μεγαλύτερη ανθεκτικότητα σε πιθανούς μελλοντικούς κλυδωνισμούς. Τα δημόσια οικονομικά βελτιώθηκαν πιο γρήγορα απ’ ό,τι περιμέναμε. Με βάση τις κυβερνητικές πολιτικές, τις θεσμικές βελτιώσεις που αποδίδουν καρπούς και ένα σταθερό πολιτικό περιβάλλον, περιμένουμε από την Ελλάδα να συνεχίσει να έχει σημαντικά πρωτογενή πλεονάσματα που θα μειώνουν σταθερά το υψηλό χρέος της χώρας. Επιπλέον, η υγεία του τραπεζικού τομέα συνεχίζει να βελτιώνεται, γεγονός που περιορίζει τον κίνδυνο ενός σχετικού πιστωτικού γεγονότος που θα μπορούσε να έχει αρνητικό αντίκτυπο στο πιστωτικό προφίλ της χώρας.
Cenergy: Τιμή-στόχος στα 11 ευρώ από τη Χρυσοχοΐδης ΑΧΕΠΕΥ.
UBS προχωρά σε αλλαγή στις κορυφαίες ευρωπαϊκές επιλογές της, τοποθετώντας την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς στη θέση της Εθνικής Τράπεζας με τιμή-στόχο στα 6,3 ευρώ ανά μετοχή και σύσταση «αγορά».
Aegean: Στα 14,70 ευρώ διατηρεί την τιμή-στόχο η Optima Bank. Παρήγγειλε οκτώ νέα αεροσκάφη A321 neo. Από τα 58 συνολικά αεροσκάφη Airbus 320/321 neo που θα ενταχθούν στον στόλο της αεροπορικής, τα 37 θα είναι αυτά της μεγαλύτερης έκδοσης της οικογένειας, δηλαδή Α321neo.
ATHEX headed north on Friday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.33% at 1,693.61 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.37%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.55%, Banks Index: +1.66%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 229.6m, down from Thursday’s EUR 244.1m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 4.07% w-o-w, (FTSE Large Cap: +4.97%, FTSE Mid Cap: +2.56%, Banks index: +8.38%). Week Ahead: Aegean Airlines FY24 results today, OPAP on Wednesday. We expect ATHEX to move higher today, supported by Moody’s Investment Upgrade on Greece.
Macro Headlines
Moody’s upgrades Greece to Baa3 (investment grade) from Ba1, changes outlook to stable
Moody’s Ratings upgraded the Government of Greece’s Ba1 long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to Baa3 (investment grade) from Ba1, with a stable outlook. The upgrade to investment grade status reflects Greece’s greater resilience to potential future shocks, improving public finances more quickly than expected, government’s commitment to continue to run substantial primary surpluses which will steadily decrease its high debt burden and moreover and the further improvement of the health of the banking sector, which limits the risk of a banking sector-related credit event that could have a negative impact on the sovereign’s credit profile. Moody’s projects primary surpluses of 2-2.5% of GDP over the medium term, with no major impact from the 2.0%/GDP NATO defense rule, as the country already exceeds it. Finally, the ratings agency expects that the debt burden stood at 156.1% of GDP in 2024, expects to further drop to 148.3% in 2025 and to 140.6% of GDP in 2026.
Outgoing Finance Minister sees fiscal result well above target for 2024 (press)
According to Kathimerini, the outgoing Finance Minister said on Saturday while handing over its ministry, that he expects Greece’s fiscal result to turn positive with a surplus of 0.2%, vs. target of 0.7% deficit, while the primary surplus is seen at 3.5% of GDP, vs. 2.5% surplus. target. The c. 1% outperformance or c. EUR 2.2bn is expected to pave the way for tax relief measures, which will be announced this September in the Thessaloniki International Fair.
Overall Import Price Index (MPI) marginally increased in January
According to ELSTAT, the Overall Import Price Index (MPI) in Industry in January 2025 recorded an increase of 0.1% y-o-y, while in January 2024, the MPI had recorded a y-o-y increase of 1.7%. The 0.1% y-o-y increase of the MPI was mainly driven by the 1.8% y-o-y increase of the non-durable consumer sub-index while the capital goods sub-index decreased by 0.6% y-o-y. Over the twelve-month February 2024- January 2025 period, the MPI decreased by 1.5% compared to the February 2023- January 2024 period.
Political Headlines
Greek PM announces cabinet reshuffle
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made adjustments to his cabinet, with the appointment of Kostis Hatzidakis, formerly the finance minister as deputy prime minister, while his position at the Finance Ministry will be taken over by Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who previously served as education minister. Christos Staikouras is stepping down as transport minister and will be replaced by Christos Dimas, the former deputy finance minister, and Konstantinos Kyranakis, previously the deputy minister of digital governance, has been named deputy minister responsible for overseeing railway reforms. Stavros Papastavrou has returned to the cabinet, assuming the environment and energy portfolio, replacing Theodoros Skylakakis. The key foreign affairs and defense portfolios remain unchanged.
Company Headlines
Eurobank Holdings AGM on 30 April, ex-dividend on 05 May
Eurobank announced that the AGM of shareholders will be held on Wednesday 30 April. The stock will trade ex-dividend (EUR 0.1050/share, Div. Yield: 4.0%) on Monday 05 May and payment will commence on Friday 09 May. Finally, Eurobank is set to report 1Q25 results on Thursday 08 May.
Piraeus Financial Holdings AGM on 14 April, ex-capital return on 26 May
Piraeus announced that the AGM of shareholders will take place on Monday 14 April at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve the distribution of a capital return of EUR 0.2980/share (Yield: 5.8%). The stock will trade ex-capital return on Monday 26 May and payment will commence on Friday 30 May. Moreover, shareholders will approve a share buyback program of up to 8,333,333 common shares, at a price range between EUR 3.00 to EUR 8.00/share, for a period of 24 months from the date of the General Meeting’s decision. The total cost for the buyback of own shares shall not exceed EUR 25.0m. On top of that, shareholders will approve the distribution of discretionary reserves of an amount up to EUR 0.23m to the company’s staff and the grant of free common shares to executives and employees of the company and affiliated entities. Finally, Piraeus will report 1Q25 results on Tuesday 06 May.
Alpha Services and Holdings AGM on 21 May, ex-DPS on 23 May
Alpha announced that the AGM of shareholders will take place on Wednesday 21 May to approve the 0.03/share cash dividend (1.3% Dividend Yield, ex-date: 23 May, payment date: 29 May). Alpha will announce 1Q25 results on Friday 09 May.
Bank of Cyprus AGM on 16 May, ex-DPS on 26 May
Bank of Cyprus announced that the AGM of shareholders will be held on Friday 16 May, to approve the EUR 0.479/share dividend (Dividend Yield: 8.7%, ex-date 26 May, payment date: 25 June). BOC will announce 1Q25 results on Monday 12 May.
Motor Oil FY24 Results Release Date
Motor Oil will release the FY24 Results on Wednesday, 2 April, with a conference call scheduled for the next day at 17.30 local time.
Aegean Airlines || BUY || CP EUR 11.76 | TP 14.70
4Q24 Preview: Strong passenger traffic and resilient yields
4Q/FY24 results preview | Aegean Airlines is set to release 4Q/FY24 results today, amc and the management will host a conference call the next day at 16:00 Athens/15:00 London time. We expect a strong improvement on top line thanks to strong passenger traffic (est. +6.3% y-o-y) in 4Q24 benefitted by the prolonged tourism season and the reduction of fuel cost, as well as the benefits from the fleet investment after the delivery of the new Neos. We also highlight that, the insurance compensation from Pratt & Whitney will further support results. On the other hand, the strengthening of US dollar during 4Q24 will negatively impact profitability at EBIT level with increased financial expenses, turning net profit negative in 4Q24. In more detail, we see revenues up by 6.2% y-o-y at EUR 383.9m, driven by increased passenger traffic c.+6.3% y-o-y and increased yields following the strong passenger traffic of AIA in 4Q24. Turning to profitability, we see EBITDA at EUR 71.3m, +116.1% on lower operating costs due to lower fuel prices and the compensation agreement gains. We also accounting for EUR 47m depreciation and financial expenses of EUR -34m impacted by higher FX losses, driving Net profits to shape at EUR -8.7m. In FY24e terms, we expect sales of EUR 1,763.8m, up by 4.2% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 401.2m, flattish y-o-y and net profit of EUR 123.5m down 26.8% y-o-y (on lower profit margin by 300bps). Finally, with respect to the dividend, we expect Aegean Airlines to declare a EUR 0.75 DPS (DY:6.7%) flat y-o-y with ex-div date set for 20 May.
Aegean Airlines ordered 8 additional Airbus A321 neo aircraft
Aegean announced that placed a new order for 8 additional Airbus A321 neo aircraft from Airbus. Among them 4 aircraft will be the long range version, offering significantly extended range to serve flights to new markets of up to 7.5 hours. With the additional order the total number of A320 – A321neo in AEGEAN fleet will reach 58 aircraft.
The benchmark index finished with 1% gains on Friday, on a EUR 171m turnover, with banks sustaining strong momentum. The banking index rose 1.6%, driven by Piraeus Bank up 3% and NBG gaining 1.9%, followed by Alpha Bank +0.8% and Eurobank flattish (+0.3%). On top performers, Sarantis stood out rising 4.4%, Aegean posted 3.4% gains, PPC was up 1.4%, OPAP finished 1% higher, while Jumbo and Metlen rose 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. On red, Cenergy recorded a modest drop of 0.7%. Aegean reports FY24 numbers today, after the market close.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICS
The cabinet reshuffling was announced on Friday. As anticipated, Kostis Hatzidakis was appointed Deputy Prime Minister, with Kyriakos Pierrakakis, taking the position of Finance Minister. Moreover, Christos Dimas was appointed Transport Minister, while the Foreign Affairs Ministry saw no major changes, with Giorgos Gerapetritis retaining his position as Foreign Affairs Minister.
MACRO
Moody’s upgraded Greece’s credit rating to investment grade, Baa3, with a stable outlook.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
According to press reports (Kathimerini) the ECB is expected to approve the ‘fit and proper’ for Henri Holterman soon in order to allow the possibility to increase his stake in Alpha Bank to >10% (and up to 33%). The current stake of Henri Holterman via Reggeborgh Invest stands at 5.16% (according to press reports the stake is closer to 10% via various entities).
AEGEAN <AEGN GA, OW>
Aegean Airlines will announce 4Q24 results today after the market closes. We expect 4Q24 sales of EUR 344m, EBITDA of EUR 35m with marginal net losses of EUR 5m (from EUR 1m losses in the same period of 2023). For the FY24 we expect net profits to reach EUR 128m with the DPS at EUR 0.80.
On other news, Aegean announced on Friday the order of 8 additional A321 neo aircraft, thus further expanding for the third time its original agreement with Airbus for A320 / A321neo family aircraft, initially signed in 2018, with the first deliveries starting in 2020. In total, 34 Airbus A320 / A321neo family aircraft have already been delivered, and another 24 more aircraft are scheduled to be delivered in the coming years, including the new order. In 2025, AEGEAN has already taken delivery of one A320neo aircraft and is planning to take delivery of four.
Management is due to host a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 Greek time (15:00 CET). Dial ins: +30211 1802000 (GR); +44 (0) 800 368 1063 (UK), +1 5164475632 (US), +44 (0) 203 0595872 (Intl).
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Piraeus Bank announced it will host an AGM on April 14 to approve among other the distribution of EUR 373m (EUR 0.30 per share) and a small share buyback program (8.3m shares) to either cancel or offer to management as a bonus.
AKTOR GROUP <AKTR GA, OW>
Aktor announced that the acquisition cost of the 51% stake in Sun Force One stands at c.EUR 4.1m (estimated EV of c.EUR 32.4m).
Market Comment // In a positive session on Friday the Greek market surged +1.33% closing at 1,693.61 points. Trading activity remained strong with turnover at €229.6mn, well above the 100-day MA of €165.7mn. Sarantis led gainers surging +4.40%, followed by ADMIE (+4.04%), Piraeus Bank (+3.87%), Thrace Plastics (+3.76%), Kri-Kri (+3.55%), Aegean (+3.43%), and PPA (+2.6%). On the other hand, Cenergy, Ideal holdings, AEM, Noval and Trade Estates were among the few names in the red (albeit <1%). Today, EU futures point to a mixed opening, as markets continue to face a host of competing forces including geopolitics, the tariff backdrop and hopes for higher fiscal spending in Europe.
Economy // Moody’s lifted Greece’s credit rating to investment grade on Friday, as widely expected, becoming the last agency to place Greece in IG territory (with a stable outlook). The decision underscores the country’s strengthened public finances and ability to withstand economic shocks.
Politics // The govt unveiled the new cabinet on Friday, seeking to signal a fresh governance approach and generational renewal. Among key changes, Mr. Hatzidakis (former FinMin) has been appointed Deputy Prime Minister, overseeing economic and production portfolios, with Mr. K. Pierrakakis taking charge as new FinMin.
Economy // According to comments by the former FinMin, Greece is set to materially outperform fiscal targets in 2024, with a primary surplus near 3.5% of GDP (vs a 2.5% target) and a 0.2% budget surplus, well above the 0.7% deficit envisaged by the latest budget. Former FinMin and now Deputy PM K. Hatzidakis attributed the c€2.5bn overperformance to strict fiscal management and disciplined execution.
Aegean Airlines // Aegean is scheduled to release FY’24 results today after-market. We forecast a 4% rise in FY’24 revenues to €1,768m, led by the 6% yoy increase in passengers and flattish average fares. We estimate flattish 2024 EBITDA at €401m (+0.3% yoy), despite the high costs and operational difficulties from the GTF engine issues, aided by strong execution and low fuel prices. Our 2024 net profit forecast stands at €128m (vs €170m a year ago) weighed down by elevated depreciation and financial costs, stemming from the rising fleet. Finally, we model a 45% payout ratio (vs 40% last year), which leads to a flat DPS of €0.75 (6.7% div. yield). A conference call is scheduled for tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time.
Aegean // Aegean announced on Friday that it is investing further in its fleet by adding 8 Airbus A321 new aircraft to its Airbus agreement. As a reminder, Aegean has already extended its initial 30 aircraft deal with 4 A321neo long-range, plus the 16 new aircraft through lessors, and is now adding 8 more taking the total fleet of Airbus neo family aircraft up to 58.
Eurobank // Ex-date on 5th May for a DPS of €0.105. We remind that total shareholder remuneration (out of 2024 profits) has settled at €674mn (50% payout ratio) comprising 57% cash dividend (€0.105 DPS; or €384mn) and 43% share buy-back (€290mn). An AGM will be held on 30th April.
Piraeus Bank // Ex-date on 26th May for a DPS of €0.30. We remind that total shareholder remuneration (out of 2024 profits) will be c€373mn (35% payout ratio) in the form of 100% cash dividend. An AGM will be held on 14th April.
NBG // NBG has set June 3 as the ex-date for a DPS of c€0.44. We remind that the total shareholder remuneration amounts to €579mn, representing a 50% payout ratio from 2024 profits. This is comprised of 70% cash dividend (€0.44 DPS, or €405mn) and 30% of a share buyback program worth €174mn. The AGM is scheduled for 30th May.
Alpha Bank // Alpha has scheduled 23rd May as the ex-date for a DPS of c€0.03. The total shareholder remuneration amounts to €281mn, reflecting a 43% payout ratio from 2024 profits. This is comprised of 25% cash dividend (€0.03 DPS, or €70mn) and 75% of a share buyback program worth €211mn. The AGM is set for 21st May.
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