Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (16.05.2024)

Άνοδο κατά 1,49% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1493,65 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 135,9 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές επέβαλαν την υπεροπλία τους από το ξεκίνηµα µε το Γ.∆. να κινείται σε αδιάλειπτα ανοδική πορεία καταγράφοντας µάλιστα στις δηµοπρασίες το υψηλό ηµέρας. Με οδηγό τον τραπεζικό κλάδο και το σύνολο σχεδόν των δεικτοβαρών τίτλων. Με την αναδιάρθρωση των δεικτών του MSCI να οδηγεί σε είσοδο του ∆ΑΑ και της Optima Bank στον MSCI Small Cap. Την ίδια ώρα, η µικρή υποχώρηση του πληθωρισµού στις ΗΠΑ στο 3,4% δεν εµπόδισε την ευφορία στις αγορές. Παράλληλα, η απόδοση των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,440%. Ανοδικά κινήθηκε η Εθνική (+4,17%), η ∆ΕΗ (+2,46%), η Jumbo (+2,87%), ο Μυτιληναίος (+1,02%), η Cenergy (+3,57%), η Βιοχάλκο (+2,02%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+2,48%), η ΕΕΕ (+1,32%), η Lamda (+1,29%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+1,49%) αλλά και η Αβαξ (+5,08%) µε την Lavipharm (+6,82%) από τη µεσαία και µικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε ο Ελλάκτωρ (-0,74%), η Autohellas (- 0,16%) και η Infoquest (-0,84%). Απολογιστικά, 75 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 32 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Σε απόλυτο συντονισµό οι βασικοί δείκτες που παρακολουθούµε κατέγραψαν σήµερα είτε ιστορικά υψηλά (DAX, S&P 500), είτε πολυετή υψηλά όπως ο Γεν. ∆είκτης. Με ένα εντυπωσιακό άλµα δρασκέλισε το αµέσως προηγούµενο ρεκόρ των 1484 µονάδων που αποτελεί πλέον την πλησιέστερη στήριξη. Η Helleniq Energy και οι τράπεζες Alpha Bank και Eurobank ανακοινώνουν σήµερα τα αποτελέσµατά τους για το 1ο τρίµηνο.

Alpha Trust: Από 27/5 η καταβολή καθαρού µερίσµατος €0,534/µετοχή. ∆ΑΑ: Από 28/5 η καταβολή καθαρού µερίσµατος €0,3135/µετοχή.

Τιµή-στόχο για τη µετοχή της ElvalHalcor, στα 2,45 από 3 ευρώ, δίνει σε έκθεσή της η NBG Securities. ∆ιατηρεί τη σύσταση υπεραπόδοσης. ΟΤΕ στα 17 ευρώ η τιµή στόχος από την η Χρυσοχοϊδης Χρηµατιστηριακή, βλέποντας περιθώριο ανόδου 21%.

Άνοδος 14,3% στην παραγωγή ασφαλίστρων το πρώτο τρίµηνο. Μεγάλη άνοδο 20,5% καταγράφει η παραγωγή από τις ασφαλίσεις ζωής στα €687,8 εκ., στο +8,9% στα €193 εκ. οι ασφαλίσεις κατά ζηµιών.

Κοµισιόν: Ανάπτυξη 2,2% για Ελλάδα, πληθωρισµός στο 2,8%. Στο 2,3% την άνοδο του ΑΕΠ τον επόµενο χρόνο.  EBRD: Βλέπει ανάπτυξη 2,3% φέτος, 2,6% το 2025.

Ιαν. – Απρίλιος 2024: έλλειµµα στο ισοζύγιο του κρατικού προϋπολογισµού ύψους 279 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι στόχου για έλλειµµα 2.699 εκατ. ευρώ. Tο πρωτογενές αποτέλεσµα σε τροποποιηµένη ταµειακή βάση διαµορφώθηκε σε πλεόνασµα ύψους €3.253 εκ., έναντι στόχου για πρωτογενές πλεόνασµα €631 εκ. Tο ύψος των καθαρών εσόδων του κρατικού προϋπολογισµού ανήλθε σε 22.508 εκατ. ευρώ, παρουσιάζοντας αύξηση κατά 2.311 εκατ. ευρώ ή 11,4% έναντι του στόχου. Η αύξηση αυτή οφείλεται κυρίως: α) στα αυξηµένα φορολογικά έσοδα κατά 2.155 εκατ. ευρώ µετά την αφαίρεση των επιστροφών και β) στα αυξηµένα έσοδα Π∆Ε κατά 1.150 εκατ. ευρώ. Οι δαπάνες του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισµού ανήλθαν στα €22.788 εκ. και παρουσιάζονται µειωµένες κατά 109 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι του στόχου.

Στουρνάρας: Aλλαγές στο πλαίσιο εξυγίανσης των τραπεζών. Eυελιξία στη χρήση στρατηγικών εξυγίανσης για την αντιµετώπιση διαφορετικών σεναρίων, διασφάλιση επαρκούς ρευστότητας κατά την εξυγίανση.

*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

*  (ALPHA GA): trading-driven Q1 beat, upside risks to reiterated FY2024 guidance, €122m planned 2023 distribution 50-50 split between dividend and buyback

* Eurobank (EUROB GA) Q1 2024 results out today post market-close: we expect €323m clean net income

* HelleniQ Energy (ELPE GA) 1Q24 results out today post market close: adjusted EBITDA seen -19% yoy to €327m (consensus €316m) on tough comps but +22% qoq on margin recovery

* Greek banks’ ECB funding flattish m-o-m (down €40.5bn from peak) to €10.5bn (almost entirely TLTRO) in April; State cash buffer at €33bn

* GEK Terna (GEKTERNA GA) reportedly exits race for 20% stake in the Greek Ariadne Interconnection

* Ideal (INTEK GA) declares €0.20/sh cash return (PSe €0.19), implying 3.3% yield. Ex-date is set for 25 July

* European Commission sees 2.2%/2.3% 2024/25 Greek GDP growth, while EBRD points to 2.3%/2.6%

* Central government primary surplus continues to handsomely beat in Jan-April 2024, courtesy of stronger-than-expected tax collections

 ATHEX rebounded yesterday, outperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.49% at 1,493.65 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.57%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.49%, Banks Index: +2.12%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 135.4m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 106.3m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, with Alpha Bank in focus today

Macro Headlines

EC updates its economic estimates for Greece for 2024-25e

In its Spring economic forecasts for Greece, EC expects GDP growth of 2.2% for 2024e (slightly lower compared to the previous estimate of 2.3%), well above the EU average growth estimate of 1.0%, and reiterated the respective estimate for 2025e at 2.3%. Regarding Greek inflation, EC expects to shape at 2.8%/2.1% in 2024/25e respectively, marginally up compared to its Winter estimates. Additionally, the EC expects Greece to post a 1.2% general government deficit/GDP in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, driving the gross public debt/GDP ratio down to 153.9% in 2024e and 149.3% in 2025e, from 161.9% in 2023. Finally, EC expects unemployment to further de-escalate to 10.3% and 9.7% in 2024-25e (from 11.1% in 2023), and current account deficit to drop to 5.2% and 4.8% in 2024-25e (from 5.8% in 2023).

Central government budget execution January-April 2024 (preliminary)

Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-April 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 279 deficit vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 2,699m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 789m deficit in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 3,253m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 631m and a EUR 2,443 surplus in the same period in 2023.

Comment: In more detail, state budget net revenues in Jan-April 2024 shaped at EUR 22,508m, showing an outperformance vs. target of EUR 2,311m. This outperformance was mainly driven by a) the increased tax revenues of EUR 2,155m, after deducting tax refunds and b) the increased PIB revenues of EUR 1,150m, which more than offset the earlier receipt in 2023 of RRF funds of EUR 1.8bn which was supposed to be collected in 2024. Revenues from taxes stood at EUR 20,368m, beating the target by EUR 2,203m, mainly due to the collection in April of the first installment of ENFIA which was estimated to be received in May of an estimated amount of EUR 940m and b) to the better performance of the previous year’s income taxes of an amount of EUR 647m. On the expenditures front, primary budget expenditures shaped at EUR 22,788m, EUR 109m below the target.

Company Headlines

ALPHA SERVICES AND HOLDINGS || CP: EUR 1.6405 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 2.10

1Q24 results review | 1Q24 Results beat estimates, Reiterate BUY

Optima View | Alpha delivered a robust set of results that beat Optima and consensus estimates on higher than expected non-core revenues and lower LLPs. 1Q24 normalized EPS of EUR 0.09 indicates that Alpha is on track to beat FY guidance of EUR 0.31. The stock is trading just 0.58x P/TBV24e, at a deep 48% discount to EU banks, which is not justified, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and expect the stock to head north today.

P & L | Reported net profit came in at EUR 211.0m (+74.8% q-o-q), the highest since 3Q2007, 11% above Optima estimate of EUR 189.4m and 8% above consensus estimate of EUR 195.0m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 420.0m (-4.3% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 419.9m and consensus estimate of EUR 422.0m. NIM widened slightly by 10bp q-o-q to 2.3%. Fee income came in at EUR 96.0m (-3.3% q-o-q), broadly in line with estimates. Core income reached EUR 516.0m (-4.1% q-o-q), in line with estimates. Non-recurring revenues stood at EUR 43.0m (+41.9% q-o-q), 43% above Optima estimate and 72% above consensus estimate. Total revenues reached EUR 560.0, (-1.4% q-o-q), 3% higher than Optima and 4% higher than consensus estimate. Opex landed at EUR 204.0m (+7.9% q-o-q), slightly lower than estimates. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 356m (-6.1% q-o-q), 5% above Optima estimate of EUR 337.7m and 7% above consensus estimate of EUR 334.0m. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 63.0m (-30% q-o-q), 11% below Optima estimate of EUR 70.9m and 12% below consensus estimate of EUR 72.0m.  The results burdened by a NPA loss of EUR 6.6m (-71.8% q-o-q) and EUR 3.2m one-off costs in 1Q24 and thus normalized profit after tax stood at EUR 222.0m (+37% q-o-q).

Asset quality | Group NPEs decreased by EUR 17m q-o-q to EUR 2.22bn, the NPE ratio was flattish q-o-q at 6.0% and the NPE cash coverage widened by 1bps q-o-q to 46%.

Capital | Tangible equity rose by EUR 181m q-o-q to EUR 6.62bn and TBVPS increased to EUR 2.81 vs. EUR 2.74 in 4Q23. RoTE widened to 12.9% vs. 7.6% in 4Q23 and FL CET1 to 14.8% from 14.6% in 4Q23.

Eurobank Holdings || CP: EUR 2.057 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 2.41

1Q24 results Preview | A good start to the year  

Bottom line | Eurobank Holdings is set to report 1Q24 results today, post-market close and a conference call will follow at 17:45 Athens/15:45 London Time. Overall, we anticipate a good quarter and reported net profit to reach EUR 297.2m (+86.5% q-o-q, +25.6% y-o-y), on lower loan loss provisions as well as higher income from associates (Hellenic Bank) and despite the low single-digit drop (-2.8% q-o-q) in core income. The results will be burdened by a VES cost of EUR 95.0m announced in early February and thus we forecast net profit before one-offs to shape at EUR 368.5m (+8.5% q-o-q, +44.4% y-o-y). Recall that 4Q23 results were also burdened by one-off costs of EUR 180.4m. Balance sheet dynamics in Greece are expected to be in line with system trends, i.e. lower loan and deposit balances, whilst we anticipate net credit expansion in international operations to remain positive. On top of that, we don’t expect any signs of asset quality deterioration in the quarter.

Top line | We project net interest income to reach EUR 557.3m (-2.7% q-o-q, +10.9% y-o-y), on higher funding costs (time depos, wholesale), fee income to stand at EUR 136.0m (-3.4% q-o-q, +5.2% y-o-y) and thus core income to reach EUR 693.3m (-2.8% q-o-q, +9.7% y-o-y). We forecast non-core revenues of EUR 40.0m (-27.9% q-o-q) and hence operating income to shape at EUR 733.3m (-4.6% q-o-q, +18.3% y-o-y).

Pre-provision income | On the cost side, we estimate that operating expenses will rise to EUR 229.9m (+0.3% q-o-q, +3.8% y-o-y) on higher personnel expenses (+0.5% q-o-q) and flattish G & A and depreciation expenses on a sequential basis. Thus, we expect pre-provision income to reach EUR 503.4m (-6.8% q-o-q, +26.4% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 73.0m (-18.9% q-o-q, -2.7% y-o-y), factoring a CoR of 70bps for the quarter.

Optima view | We should focus on management’s outlook on the evolution of NII, time deposits (mix, cost), fee income, asset quality and balance sheet dynamics in the coming quarters. The stock is trading 1.0x P/TBV24E, at 9% discount to European banks, which is not justified by its higher RoTE profile. Following the release of 1Q24 results, we will review and update our FY estimates, target price and recommendation.

Greek equities finished the day with gains of 1.5%, to a total of EUR 134m turnover, with banks marking a 2.1% increase, boosted by NBG’s 4.1% gains, as well as Eurobank +1.6% and Alpha Bank +1.7%. On non-financials, Cenergy was up 3.5%, followed by TITAN (+3.1%), while Jumbo and PPC were up 2.8% and 2.4% respectively. Ellaktor underperformed, down -0.7%, whereas Aegean Airlines and Fourlis were flat on the day down -0.3%. BOCH reporting today bmo. HELLENiQ and Eurobank reporting today amc.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS 

MACRO

According to the European Commission’s updated economic projections for Greece, GDP is expected to grow at a 2.2% pace in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, significantly higher than the 0.8% and 1.4% estimates for Eurozone, while growth is anticipated to accelerate further in the upcoming years, boosted by the lower interest rate environment, as well as investments, which are expected to advance 6.7% in FY24. In the meantime, inflation forecasts are revised downwards to 2.8% and 2.1% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, whereas debt continues to gradually decline, with the Debt to GDP ratio expected to retreat from 161.% in 2023, to 153.9% in 2024 and eventually 149.3% in 2025, as a result of strong growth and increased primary surpluses. Estimates regarding the primary surplus, are calling for an increase to 2.3% of GDP in 2024 as well as 2.5% in 2025.

ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>

Alpha Bank reported this morning a solid quarter with net profit of EUR 204m vs. consensus of EUR 188m with the beat driven by higher trading income, lower opex and provisions. The key core trends (NII, fees, credit expansion, capital) were all broadly in line with our forecasts and on track with the business plan targets (EPS of EUR 0.31 for 2024E).  Management also provided more details on the dividend intentions. From 2023 net earnings, the management will propose a EUR 122m distribution (subject to regulatory approval), split 50% cash and 50% buyback. This is spot on our forecasts and the implied yield is 3.2%. Management also provided more colour on the distributions going forward. The targeted payout ratio is 35% for 2024E and 50% thereafter (ours at 40% for 2024E, 45% for 2025E and 50% thereafter), implying yields of 6.6% and c.10% thereafter.

The management will host a conference call today at 12:00 Greek time (11:00 CET). We remain BUYers on the shares, and we think the solid 1Q delivery and the more detailed guidance on distributions could be a trigger to reverse the recent underperformance (+6.6% YTD vs. +21% for Piraeus, +28% for Eurobank and +35% for NBG). Alpha now trades at below 0.6x P/TBV on 2024E with the P/E at c.5.5x.

ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, EW>

AGM approved the distribution of FY 23 remaining DPS of EUR 0.33. Ex-DPS date set for May 21^st. Payment to commence on May 28^th.

AEGEAN AIRLINES <AEGN GA, OW>

AGM approved the distribution of FY 23 DPS of EUR 0.75. Ex-DPS date set for May 20^th. Payment to commence on May 27^th.

Market Comment // Trading in positive territory throughout yesterday’s session, the ASE Index posted a new 13-year record high rising to 1,493.65 points (+1.49%). Trading activity ticked higher to €134m, with banks representing 43% of transactions, in line with the 100-day moving average of €136m. NBG, Premia, Cenergy and Titan Cement were among the top gainers surging more than 3%, followed by Jumbo, Elvalhalcor, PPC, Kri-Kri and Viohalco (all up >2%). On the flipside, Ideal Holdings, Admie Holdings, Quest, Ellaktor, Epsilon Net, ACAG, Aegean , Fourlis, Motodynamics, Autohellas and Piraeus Bank posted mild losses (<1%). Today markets look poised for a positive opening on renewed rate cut hopes following the U.S. inflation data.

Alpha Bank // Results exceeded both our estimates and consensus across the board, with an adjusted net profit of €222m (vs consensus of €190m and our estimate of €194m), +2.7% qoq (+37% yoy) driven by higher-than-expected non-core revenues and lower impairments. Adj. ROTE (post excess capital) shaped at 13.5% above the FY’24e guidance of 13%. €122m distribution out of 2023 profits (3.2% yield) to be split between cash and buybacks, subject to regulatory approval.

Eurobank // Q1 results today post close, followed by a conference call at 15:45 UK time. According to Visible Alpha, NII and total revenues are set to decrease 2% and 7% q/q (i.e. vs record Q4’23 levels) coming in at €563mn (vs €573mn in Q4 2023) and €712mn (vs €769mn in Q4 2023) respectively. On a yoy basis though, NII is set to post c12% growth, indicating a very robust start to the year. The q/q decline is attributed to lower non-core income and hedging costs weighing on NII. Consequently, adjusted net profit is poised to decrease q/q to €320mn (vs €340mn in Q4 2023) due to the sequentially lower revenues, which will offset the q/q reduction in impairments. On a yoy basis, adj. net profit looks primed for growth in excess of 20%.

HelleniQ Energy // Scheduled to release Q1’2024 results today after market close. In a quarter with improved refining margins qoq, we expect strong results, albeit at lower levels yoy. Based on our estimate of a realized refining margin of $17/bbl (-23% yoy but double what we consider mid-cycle level), we forecast adj. EBITDA of €303mn (-25% yoy) filtering through to adj. net profit of €172mn (-32% yoy).

Banks // According to Bloomberg, the Deputy Governor of the BoG and member of the ECB’s Supervisory Board stressed that the ECB will decide in June the extent to which Greek banks can resume dividend payments. She pointed out that the decision will reflect the considerable progress Greek banks have made in reducing their NPE stock while noting that improved profitability sets the stage for Greek banks to begin rewarding their shareholders again.

Economy // EU commission recalibrates macroeconomic forecasts envisaging 2.2% and 2.3% growth for the Greek economy in 2024-25 respectively, marginally below the govt’s estimates (2.5-2.6%).

Ideal Holdings // Proposal for EUR 0.20/share capital return (3.3% yield); AGM to be held on 6^th June.

ADMIE Holding // Officially confirmed that GEK Terna and Terna SpA have withdrawn from the 2nd phase of the tender process for the sale of 20% of “Ariadne Interconnection”. The remaining interested parties, StateGrid and the joint venture led by Phaethon Holdings, must submit their binding offers by June 21st.

Alpha Trust Holdings // Shareholders approved the dividend distribution of €0.563 per share (6.8% yield). The shares will trade ex-div on 20^th May, with payment commencing on 27^th May.

  

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.