Performance Technologies: Σε ενοποιηµένη βάση ο κύκλος εργασιών αυξήθηκε κατά 37,7%, ανερχόµενος στο ποσό των 57.722 χιλ. ευρώ. Τα µικτά κέρδη αυξήθηκαν κατά 36,7%, στα 17.673 χιλ. ευρώ. Τα κέρδη προ φόρων, χρηµατοδοτικών, επενδυτικών αποτελεσµάτων και αποσβέσεων (EBITDA) αυξήθηκαν κατά 37,4%, στα 7.151 χιλ. ευρώ, ενώ τα κέρδη προ φόρων αυξήθηκαν κατά 40,4%, στα 6.130 χιλ. ευρώ.
ΕΚΤΕΡ: Ανέλαβε την αποκατάσταση προσόψεων στη Γαλλική Πρεσβεία. Η συµβατική αµοιβή ορίσθηκε στο κατ’ αποκοπήν ποσό των 2.495.000,00 € πλέον Φ.Π.Α. 24%, ενώ η συνολική προθεσµία για την περαίωση του αντικειµένου της σύµβασης ορίστηκε στους 13 µήνες.
Alpha Finance: Νέες τιµές-στόχοι για τις ελληνικές τράπεζες. Στη Eurobank τιµή στόχος 2,45 ευρώ, Τράπεζα Πειραιώς στα 4,90 ευρώ, Εθνική στα 9,10 ευρώ. Υψηλότεροι από ό,τι προηγουµένως κατά περίπου 25% κατά µέσο όρο, λόγω των υψηλότερων εκτιµήσεων για τα κέρδη κοκ
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)
* Government tables amendment to streamline payments for called State guarantees on private-sector loans: positive for banks
* Lamda Dev. (LAMDA GA) reportedly eyes tender for the sale of >50% in Lavrio port
* Central government primary surplus continues to handsomely beat in 1Q24, courtesy of stronger-than-expected tax collections
* March Greek regional airports pax traffic up by a good 12% y-o-y to 0.8m, rising 11% to 2.1m in Q1
ATHEX closed in red for a third consecutive session yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.71% at 1,390.69 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.68%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.39%, Banks Index: -1.29%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 154.8m, up from Friday’s EUR 130.0m. We expect the market to continue monitoring closely the geopolitical developments today.
Macro Headlines
Central government budget execution January-March 2024 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-March 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 77m deficit vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 817m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 220m surplus in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 2,954m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 2,133m and a EUR 3,079 surplus in the same period in 2023.
Comment: In more detail, state budget net revenues in Jan-March 2024 shaped at EUR 16,790m, showing an outperformance vs. target of EUR 398m. This outperformance was mainly driven by a) the increased tax revenues of EUR 654m, after deducting tax refunds and b) the increased PIB revenues of EUR 1,029m, which more than offset the under recovery of RRF funds of EUR 1.64bn vs. Target. Revenues from taxes stood at EUR 14,920m, beating the target by EUR 674m, mainly due to better performance of the previous year’s taxes collected in installments until the end of February 2024 (income tax of natural and legal persons, ENFIA) as well as the better performance in the collection of the current year’s taxes (VAT, Excise taxes, etc.). On the expenditures front, primary budget expenditures shaped at EUR 16,867m, EUR 343m below the target.
Company Headlines
JUMBO || BUY | CP: 26.70 | TP: EUR 31.10
FY23 results preview | Record year in terms of profitability and top line | Another strong year ahead
Strong sales performance in 2023 | Jumbo is set to release its FY23 results on April 17, after the market close, while a briefing to analysts is scheduled for the following day at 15:30 Athens time (13:30 UK time). The company has already announced sales surge of c.14% y-o-y, exceeding initial management’s conservative outlook of 12% sales improvement earlier in 2023. In terms of profitability, we expect that Jumbo will close the year with gross profit margin at 54.5% (-40bps vs. 2022), an improved EBITDA at EUR 390.2m (+15.9% y-o-y), while we see net profits at EUR 284.7m (+14.5% y-o-y).
Dividend policy | On the dividend front, the company distributed cash dividends of EUR 2.947/share during FY23, while recently (in March 2024) the company decided an additional cash distribution of a gross amount of EUR 0.60/share. However, we expect that Jumbo will continue to pay dividends close to the previous year during 2024, given a) management’s “aggressive” guidance on both sales and profit margins and b) the expected positive sales performance during 1Q24e. We expect management to announce a new dividend distribution c. to EUR 1/share.
Sales performance in 2M24 period | The company announced flat group sales in 2M24 negatively affected by the shifted back of Carnival celebration on 17 March this year (compared to 26 February last year) with Greek sales (-3% y-o-y), Cyprus (-7% y-o-y), Romanian sales (+13% y-o-y) and Bulgarian sales (+11% y-o-y). Group sales in Feb24 recorded a decrease by 3% y-o-y due to the adverse seasonality of sales in Greece (-8%) and Cyprus (-12%), while Romania (+15%) and Bulgaria (+13%) maintained their positive momentum exhibiting strong growth. In terms of 2024 outlook, despite the flattish start of the year (on tough comparison) management reiterates its FY24e sales growth of 8-10% (slightly up from our estimates for sales growth of 7.6% y-o-y) and expects strong sales performance for March 2024e that will lead to a positive y-o-y 1Q24e performance. Regarding profitability, our estimates call for gross profit margin of 54.5% in FY24 and net income between EUR 305m-EUR 310m.
Investment case | Overall, 2023 was an exceptionally strong year that exceeded management’s guidance with strong sales growth throughout the year. At the same time, Jumbo managed to increase the number of its operating stores with the opening of two new hyper stores in Romania and Bulgaria in the 4Q23 and the opening of the online store in Romania in the 2H23. For the year ahead, management plans to open four new hyperstores, one in Cyprus and three in Romania, while the online store in Romania will operate for the whole year boosting online sales. Finally, management is trying to reopen the two stores that were closed due to the floods last summer and represented 3% of the company’s turnover. That said, we re-affirm our ‘Buy’ rating on the stock on strong fundamentals and we believe that managements target for sales growth of 8% -10% (in line with our forecasts) this year will be achieved.
Mytilineos seeks grant and long term contract from the EU for Gallium production (press)
According to Mononews.gr, Mytilineos seeks from the EU a EUR 150-200m subsidy to develop a Gallium extraction unit (Gallium is extracted from Bauxite), and also to sign a long-term contract to cover all EU Gallium demand of 40-45MT per annum, at a price above production cost (current wholesale price is c.EUR 300/kg). As per the same press report, such an investment will be operational in 18 months.
OTE 1Q24 results out on 14 May
The company will release 1Q24 results on Tuesday 14 May, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a CC on the same day at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.
ELLAKTOR financial calendar update
ELLAKTOR is set to release the FY23 Results on 18 April, after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for the same day. Additionally, the company will hold the AGM on 31st May, to possibly approve the distribution of a capital return to its shareholders. According to Euro2day.gr, ELLAKTOR is also in negotiations for a potential sale of its concessions arm, AKTOR concessions, aiming to focus on its real estate business with REDS.
Athens ended the day on red territory, losing 71bps with investors participation reaching EUR 154m. Banks underperformed, losing 1.3%, with NBG being the worst performer among the four systemic banks, down 2.2% and Piraeus bank ending the day broadly flat. Among top gainers, Sarantis up 1.8%, followed by Ellaktor +1.6% and Fourlis +1.5%. On red, PPA down 3.1% and PPC/ Aegean Airlines both down -2.7%.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
According to press reports the HFSF is targeting the sale of the second NBG tranche in Autumn (around November, post 9M23 results). This is in line with comments made by the BoG Governor recently. News is expected.
OTE <OTE GA>
OTE announced it will publish its 1Q24 results on Tuesday, May 14th before the market opens. A conference call is scheduled to take place on the same day at 13:00 local time. Conference call dial ins: GR: +30 210 9460 800, DE: +49 (0) 69 2222 4493, UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, +1 516 447 5632.
ELLAKTOR <ELLAKTOR GA>
According to press reports, Reggeborgh and Motor Oil consider the proposal of a capital return instead of a dividend distribution based on the announced financial calendar by the company. The company reports FY23 results on April 18th, AGM to take place on May 31st.
Market Comment // Trading in negative territory throughout the day contrary to EU markets, the ASE General index closed at 1,391 points (-0.71%) on Monday to extend its negative streak to 3 sessions. Turnover reached €154m, a tad above the 100-day moving average of €144m. Intralot (-3.7%) and PPA (-3.15%) led laggards, followed by Aegean Airlines, PPC, Lamda, NBG, Elvalhalcor and ACAG (on >2% losses). Thrace Plastics, ATHEX, Autohellas, Alpha Bank, EYDAP, GEK Terna, Dimand, ADMIE Holdings, Quest and Eurobank were also down >1%. On the flipside, Papoutsanis, Sarantis, Ellaktor, Fourlis, Titan Cement, HelleniQ Energy and Jumbo were among the main names granting support, all advancing >1%. EU futures indicate a deeply negative opening today, as investor sentiment is weighed down by geopolitical concerns over the Middle East situation.
Mytilineos // In our new report “More than just a deal, more than 10% growth; top pick” we reflect the impact of the PPC deal and the shifting dynamics across the Group’s segments. Overall, we still see ample room for growth, estimating FY’24 EBITDA of €1.14bn (+13% yoy) and a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 10%, driven by a step-up in Renewables and solid growth in Metals. We expect a confluence of catalysts in the coming weeks, namely the Q1’24 results on 25th April (we forecast 9% growth in Q1’24 EBITDA to €246m) and the AGM on 4th June, when mgmt will provide guidance that will likely point to another record year. We raise our PT to €48.4 reiterating Mytil as one our top picks in Greece. Our PT places the stock at 7.4x 1yr fwd EV/EBITDA, namely small premium vs the blended peer group, which is justified in our view by the Group’s superior growth profile and the rising tilt to segments that justify higher multiples (RES 35% of EBITDA in 2026e).
NBG // According press, the divestment of the HFSF’s final 18% stake in NBG is expected to be postponed until autumn due to the challenging merger process between Attia Bank and Pancreta Bank, scheduled to take place this summer.
Jumbo // FY23 results tomorrow post market close. With sales having been pre-released, landing at +14% yoy (€1,082m), we are looking for EBITDA of €397m in the full year, +18% yoy (+14% in H2 following +27% in H1) on solid gross margins given abating input costs. We expect net profit at €299m, +20% yoy (€2.2 EPS). On the cash flow front, we estimate a blowout year with FCF reaching almost €230m, thus helping Jumbo end up on a €431m net cash position despite distributing €401m to shareholders.
Lamda // Lamda is scheduled to release FY’23 results tomorrow after market. Looking into Lamda Development EBITDA from the properties under operation (malls, marina, other operating assets) we estimate adj. EBITDA ex revaluations and ex Ellinikon at €77m (up from €54m in 2022), of which EBITDA stemming from the 4 malls at €82m in FY’23 (+20% yoy or 11.2% lfl). Having in mind the delays caused by the notaries’ strike at year-end 2023, we believe Ellinikon related flows and the related flow-through the P&L will be negatively impacted vs what we were expecting. In terms of organic bottom line, we estimate c€47m net result ex-Ellinikon, which points to a fairly flat NAV for 2023 (near €7.8/share).
Kri-Kri // FY23 results today post market close. We expect FY23 sales to settle at €214m (+24%) and EBITDA at €48m (vs. just €9m in 2022) marking a historic record for the group thanks to increased volumes, favorable price/mix dynamics and reduced input costs. We expect a dividend of €0.40 per share, translating to a c3.5% yield.
ADMIE Holding // Scheduled to release its FY’23 results tomorrow (pre-market). We estimate IPTO’s FY’23 EBITDA at €284mn (+50% yoy) on account of the increased unitary system charges. We forecast a 112% surge in ADMIE Holding’s FY’23 EBITDA (€62mn), thus anticipating a DPS of €0.14/share, which translates to a c6.5% yield. On a quarterly basis, we estimate IPTO to report Q4’24 EBITDA of €69mn (+45% yoy), with ADMIE Holding’s net profit at €15.6mn, +83% higher yoy.
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