Wood: βαρίδι για την ελληνική οικονοµία η ακρίβεια. Πτωτικούς κινδύνους από τον επίµονα υψηλό πληθωρισµό και την αδυναµία στις καταναλωτικές δαπάνες βλέπει ο οίκος.
Βιοµηχανία: άνοδος 1,3% στις τιµές εισαγωγών τον Μάρτιο.
Αύξηση 3,1% κατέγραψε ο πληθωρισµός τον Απρίλιο, µε τις τιµές στα τρόφιµα να τρέχουν µε ρυθµό 5,4%. Σηµαντικές ανατιµήσεις σε κατηγορίες τροφίµων, µε προεξάρχουσα αυτή του ελαιόλαδου (63,7%). Καταγράφονται αυξήσεις 11,6% στα φρούτα, 10,6% στα ψάρια, 12,5% σε αναψυκτικά και χυµούς. Ταυτόχρονα ανατιµήσεις 15% καταγράφονται στα αεροπορικά εισιτήρια και 14% στα ασφάλιστρα υγείας. Από την άλλη πλευρά, σηµαντικές είναι οι µειώσεις στο κόστος φυσικού αερίου (26,9%).
Αβαξ: Παρουσίαση εκθέσεων από Optima Bank και Edison, µε εκτιµώµενη τιµή µετοχής 3 ευρώ και 2,79 ευρώ αντιστοίχως, και περιθώριο ανόδου 90% και 76%. Στις συµµετοχές διατηρεί ισχυρό χαρτοφυλάκιο και αναµένονται αποδόσεις.
ΕΥ∆ΑΠ: ∆ηµοπρατείται ο αγωγός υδροδότησης στην Κινέτα. Το έργο, συνολικού προϋπολογισµού 6,4 εκατ. ευρώ, χρηµατοδοτείται από το Ευρωπαϊκό Ταµείο Περιφερειακής Ανάπτυξης (ΕΤΠΑ) και έχει ενταχθεί στη Προγραµµατική Περίοδο ΕΣΠΑ 2021-2027.
Το Α’ τρίµηνο του 2024, τα ενοποιηµένα έσοδα του Οµίλου OTE αυξήθηκαν κατά 9,2% και διαµορφώθηκαν σε €877,6 εκατ., λόγω ισχυρών επιδόσεων στη χώρα µας. Η προσαρµοσµένη κερδοφορία EBITDA (AL) του Οµίλου αυξήθηκε κατά 1,2% στα €326,0 εκατ., µε το περιθώριο να διαµορφώνεται σε 37,1%.
* Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) Q1 2024 results out tomorrow before market-opening: we expect €198m clean net income vs €188m consensus
* OTE (HTO GA) Q1 2024 results broadly in-line, reiterates FY2024 FCF, capex and shareholder remuneration targets
* MSCI index rebalancing: no changes to Greece Standard (ie large-cap), 2 additions in Small Cap
* Inflation cools in April
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a second consecutive session, underperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.29% at 1,471.78 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.33%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.24%, Banks Index: -0.23%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 106.3m, down from Monday’s EUR 120.6m. We expect the market to rebound today.
Macro Headlines
Greek CPI up by 3.1% y-o-y in April (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, CPI (national index) increased by +3.1% y-o-y and by 0.5% m-o-m in April 2024, while the annual average rate of CPI increased by +2.8% over the trailing 12 months. The sectors with the most notable y-o-y movements were Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.4%) and Hotel – Cafes – Restaurants (+5.2%). Additionally, the harmonized CPI in April 2024 rose by 3.4% y-o-y (up from 3.2% flash estimate released earlier this month) and increased by 0.9% m-o-m.
Overall Import Price Index (MPI) increased in March
According to ELSTAT, the Overall Import Price Index (MPI) in Industry in March 2024 recorded an increase of 1.3% y-o-y, while in March 2023, the MPI had recorded a y-o-y decrease of 12.7%. The 1.3% y-o-y increase of the MPI was mainly driven by the 1.9% y-o-y decrease of the intermediate products sub-index, while on the contrary, the Energy products sub-index rose by 4.2% y-o-y. Over the twelve-month April 2023- March 2024 period, the MPI decreased by 11.6% compared to the April 2022- March 2023 period.
Market Headlines
MSCI Quarterly Review | Optima Bank and AlA will be included in Small Cap Index
MSCI announced yesterday its quarterly index review, with Optima Bank and Athens International Airport to be included in the Small Cap Index, whilst no changes were made on MSCI Greece Standard. The changes will be effective as of the close of 31 May 2024.
Sector Headlines
Eurobank Holdings CEO expects systemic banks to distribute dividends for 2023-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), the CEO of Eurobank Holdings stated that he expects systemic banks to distribute up to 30% of 2023 net profits. Recall that banks are waiting for the green light by SSM by early June.
ACI Europe upgrades its forecasts for the performance of European airports
The International Council of European Airports predicting that passenger traffic will increase by 3.2% compared to pre-pandemic figures, compared to the initial estimate of a 1.4% increase vs. 2019. Passenger traffic in the European airport network increased by 10.2% y-o-y in March with the increase mainly attributed to international passengers up by +11.7% y-o-y while domestic passengers increased by 5.6%. Greece is in the top three countries with the biggest increase in passenger traffic up by 19.6% y-o-y.
Company Headlines
OTE || CP: EUR 14.01 | Rating: Neutral | TP: EUR 15.00
1Q24 results review | 1Q24 In Line, A solid start
Optima View | OTE reported 1Q24 results that came in line with our estimates in terms of adj. EBITDA (AL). The stock is trading 4.7x EV/EBITDA24e, at 26% discount to EU peers. We reiterate our Neutral rating and TP of EUR 15.00/share due to limited upside potential of 7.1%.
Group P&L | Group revenues reached EUR 877.6m (+9.2% y-o-y), 5% above our estimate of EUR 837.8m and adj. EBITDA AL was shaped at EUR 326.0m (+1.2% y-o-y), in line with our estimate of EUR 328.1m, with the respective margin at 37.1% vs. 40.1% in 1Q23. Reported net profit came in at EUR 134.8m (-0.4% y-o-y), 2% below our estimate of EUR 137.0m.
FCF | The company reported FCF (AL) of EUR 127.1m (-43.8% y-o-y) due to higher tax payments and CapEx (+47.1% y-o-y). Net Debt decreased by EUR 113.8m q-o-q to EUR 521.0m in 1Q24.
Greece | Revenues rose by 10.3% y-o-y to EUR 812.3m, 5% above our estimate of EUR 772.8m. Retail fixed services were flattish, mobile service revenues grew by 3.3% y-o-y, wholesale revenues advanced by 19.5% y-o-y and other revenues soared by 30.1% y-o-y. Adj. EBITDA (AL) came in at EUR 323.2m (+1.5% y-o-y) with the respective margin at 39.8% vs. 43.3% in 1Q23.
Subscribers | Broadband subscribers increased by 1.1% to 2,358,980 with 456 net additions. The total number of fiber subscribers increased by 5.1% y-o-y to 1,565,013, with 18,614 net additions in the quarter and FTTH subscribers up 73.0% y-o-y to 286,791 with 36,234 net additions. OTE’s total FTTH footprint reached 1,375k homes and should reach 1.8m homes in 2024. Moreover, mobile postpaid subscribers rose by 4.0% y-o-y with net additions at 15,723, whilst prepaid subscribers slipped by 21.6%. TV subscribers rose by 6.0% y-o-y to 687,961 with 39,160 net additions.
Romania | Revenues fell by 4.1% y-o-y to EUR 66.2m, 2% above our estimate of EUR 65.0m due to mobile termination rate cuts and customer-retention promotions. Adj. EBITDA (AL) was shaped at EUR 2.8m (-20.0% y-o-y) with the respective margin at 4.2% vs. 5.1% in 1Q23. Mobile subscribers also slipped by 9.9% y-o-y.
Guidance 2024 | Management reiterated 2024 Free Cash Flow guidance of EUR 470m, impacted by higher cash income tax payments compared to 2023 and CapEx in the range of EUR 610m to EUR 620m for the deployment of its FTTH infrastructure.
Shareholder Remuneration | OTE intends to distribute approximately 95% of its expected 2024 FCF. Total shareholder remuneration is targeted at EUR ca450m, o/w proposed EUR 297m cash dividend (EUR 0.71) and EUR ca153m in share buyback. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 10 July.
Alpha Services and Holdings || CP: EUR 1.6120 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 2.10
1Q24 results Preview
1Q24 results preview | Alpha Services & Holdings is scheduled to report its 1Q24 results on Thursday 16 May, at 08:00 Athens/06:00 London time. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London time. We anticipate net profit to accelerate on a sequential basis, driven by lower loan loss provisions. Balance sheet dynamics are expected to be in line with system trends, lower loan and deposit balances and organic NPE formation dynamics to remain positive, in line with the previous quarters.
Bottom line | We forecast 1Q24 reported net profit to reach EUR 189.4m (+57% q-o-q, +70% y-o-y), slightly lower (-2.8%) than consensus estimate of EUR 195.0m. We expect operating income to be marginally lower on a sequential basis (-4% q-o-q, +13% y-o-y), operating costs to be higher (+10% q-o-q, +1% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to be lower (-21% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y).
Top line | We estimate net interest income to reach EUR 419.9m (-4% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 422.0m. The sequential drop is attributed to higher time deposit cost and to the calendar effect. We also forecast fee income to shape at EUR 95.0m (-4% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 94.0m. Thus, we project core income to stand at EUR 514.9m (-4% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 516.0m. We also anticipate non-core revenues at EUR 30.0m (-1% q-o-q, +77% y-o-y), higher than consensus estimate of EUR 25.0m and thus operating income to stand at EUR 544.9m (-4% q-o-q, +13% y-o-y), slightly higher than consensus estimate of EUR 541.0m.
Pre-provision income | On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to increase to EUR 207.2m (+10% q-o-q, +1% y-o-y) and recurring OpEx to rise by 6.5% q-o-q, owing to higher general expenses (+24.9% q-o-q, 0% y-o-y). Hence, we project pre-provision income to reach EUR 337.7m (-11% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y), slightly higher than consensus estimate of EUR 334.0m. We also expect loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 70.9m (-21% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y), factoring a CoR of 73bps for the quarter and marginally lower than consensus estimate of EUR 72.0m.
Optima view | We should focus on the management’s guidance on the evolution of NII, time deposits mix and beta, fee income as well as on asset quality. The stock is trading 0.58x P/TBV24E, at a material 47% discount to European banks and at 34% discount to its Greek peers, which is unjustified in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.10/share, implying a 29.6% upside potential. Following the release of 1Q24 results, we will review and update our FY estimates, target price and recommendation.
Eurobank Holdings || CP: EUR 2.024 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 2.41
1Q24 results Preview | A good start to the year
Bottom line | Eurobank Holdings is set to report 1Q24 results on Thursday 16 May, post-market close and a conference call will follow at 17:45 Athens/15:45 London Time. Overall, we anticipate a good quarter and reported net profit to reach EUR 297.2m (+86.5% q-o-q, +25.6% y-o-y), on lower loan loss provisions as well as higher income from associates (Hellenic Bank) and despite the low single-digit drop (-2.8% q-o-q) in core income. The results will be burdened by a VES cost of EUR 95.0m announced in early February and thus we forecast net profit before one-offs to shape at EUR 368.5m (+8.5% q-o-q, +44.4% y-o-y). Recall that 4Q23 results were also burdened by one-off costs of EUR 180.4m. Balance sheet dynamics in Greece are expected to be in line with system trends, i.e. lower loan and deposit balances, whilst we anticipate net credit expansion in international operations to remain positive. On top of that, we don’t expect any signs of asset quality deterioration in the quarter.
Top line | We project net interest income to reach EUR 557.3m (-2.7% q-o-q, +10.9% y-o-y), on higher funding costs (time depos, wholesale), fee income to stand at EUR 136.0m (-3.4% q-o-q, +5.2% y-o-y) and thus core income to reach EUR 693.3m (-2.8% q-o-q, +9.7% y-o-y). We forecast non-core revenues of EUR 40.0m (-27.9% q-o-q) and hence operating income to shape at EUR 733.3m (-4.6% q-o-q, +18.3% y-o-y).
Pre-provision income | On the cost side, we estimate that operating expenses will rise to EUR 229.9m (+0.3% q-o-q, +3.8% y-o-y) on higher personnel expenses (+0.5% q-o-q) and flattish G & A and depreciation expenses on a sequential basis. Thus, we expect pre-provision income to reach EUR 503.4m (-6.8% q-o-q, +26.4% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 73.0m (-18.9% q-o-q, -2.7% y-o-y), factoring a CoR of 70bps for the quarter.
Optima view | We should focus on management’s outlook on the evolution of NII, time deposits (mix, cost), fee income, asset quality and balance sheet dynamics in the coming quarters. The stock is trading 1.0x P/TBV24E, at 9% discount to European banks, which is not justified by its higher RoTE profile. Following the release of 1Q24 results, we will review and update our FY estimates, target price and recommendation.
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.67
1Q24e preview | Strong Start driven by core business
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 1Q24e results tomorrow, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled also for tomorrow at 18.30 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 336m (-17% y-o-y on tough comparables and lower by 24.9% q-o-q) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 177m from EUR 252m in 1Q23. Accounting for the positive impact from inventory and other one-offs of EUR 20m, IFRS EBITDA and net income are seen at EUR 356m and EUR 193m respectively compared to EBITDA of EUR 279m and EUR 155m net profits in 1Q23. Our estimates lie 6% and 3% higher compared to EBITDA adj. and Net profit consensus estimates respectively. It is reminded that HELLENiQ ENERGY has declared a EUR 0.60 final DPS (ex-date: 10 July, DY: 7.0%).
AVAX analysts briefing
During yesterday’s presentation to analysts; AVAX guided for Revenues growth of 30% to EUR 600m in 2024e, on better margins, and EBITDA of EUR 50-60m. Outlook for construction remains positive, due to the accumulated backlog of EUR 3.3bn, which could further expand in the next months. The company said that the Flyover in Thessaloniki has restarted and is progressing slightly ahead of schedule, while with regards to the Line 4 of the Athens Metro, there were some delays, beyond AVAX’ responsible. Additionally, the company said that it has been pre-qualified for 25 Public-Private partnership projects of EUR 3-4bn. With respect to concessions, AVAX said that the remaining dividends to be received are EUR 1.1bn, EUR 200m in the next 5 years. Finally, the company is also interested for the development of Real Estate projects which offer IRR’s of 12-18% and energy projects offering returns of 10-15%.
The ASE Index ended the day flattish (down -0.2%), on a low EUR 106m turnover, with banks also recording a -0.2% drop, led by Eurobank’s -2.5% losses. Among top gainers, Cenergy stood out up c.1.7%, followed by NBG +1.1%, while Helleniq Energy and PPA advanced 0.7% and c.0.6% respectively. On red, TITAN slipped -3.8%, Terna Energy marked a -2.3% loss, whereas Ellaktor and GEKTERNA were down -2.1% and -1.3%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MSCI
No change in the MSCI Greece Standard Index. In the MSCI small cap index there were two additions (effective May 31): Athens International Airport (AIA GA) and Optima Bank (OPTIMA GA).
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, inflation in April stood at 3.1%, 0.5% higher on a mom basis.
HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>
The company announced its 1Q24 results, underscoring a 9.2% yoy advance in revenues reaching EUR 877.6m, driven by strong growth in Greece (+10.3% yoy with mobile, broadband and TV all in a solid positive territory), while adjusted EBITDA slightly increased to EUR 326m up 1.2% yoy, yet slightly below the Bloomberg consensus for a EUR 334m figure. Adjusted net profit came in at EUR 142.5m up 4.9% yearly, whereas net debt marked a 2.9% yoy increase to a total of EUR 521m.
During the conference call, management confirmed guidance calling for EUR 610-620m adjusted CAPEX in FY24, amid the continuing implementation of FTTH infrastructure, as well as EUR 470m FCF, underlining higher tax payments, with approximately 95% of expected FCF (EUR 450m) indented to be distributed to shareholders. The company foresees solid double digit growth rates for FY24, as a result of lower costs in the next quarters by signing longer-term contracts, as well as an upcoming state subsidy likely in 4Q24, the full effect of which will be seen in FY2025. Moreover, OTE’s debt remain in low levels with no intention for refinancing in the next two years.
SARANTIS GROUP <SAR GA>
The company announced that Giannis Bouras will take responsibility of CEO duties, having previously served as Deputy CEO. Mr Kyriakos Sarantis to chair the Board of Directors, with Grigoris Sarantis acting as Vice Chairman of the BoD.
HELLENiQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
HELLENiQ is due to report 1Q24 numbers on Thursday, May 16th before the market opens. We expect a decent quarter, driven by strong refining margins and particularly mid distillate cracks, which are responsible for half of HELLENiQ’s product yield. The recovery of petchem margins, especially polypropylene should support margins for 1Q24, as disruptions in the Middle East weigh on imports from Asia. Our estimates for the quarter call for a group adj EBITDA of EUR 312m, with adj net profit at EUR 165m. A conference call is scheduled for Thursday, May 16th at 6pm GR time. Dial ins: UK + INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, GR: +31 213 009 6000, US: +1 516 447 5632
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank is due to report 1Q24 numbers tomorrow, before the market opens. We expect NII at EUR 417m (down 5% qoq) with core PPI at EUR 318m and recuring net profit of EUR 190m (vs. EUR 196m in 4Q23). The consensus recuring net profit stands at EUR 188m. All in, we expect solid numbers, in line with the trends in line with our full year expectations. The management will host a conference call also tomorrow at 12:00 Greek time (11:00 CET).
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH LN, OW>
Bank of Cyprus will report 1Q24 results on Thursday before the market opens. A conference call will follow on the same day at 10:00 CET. Dial ins: GR: +30 211 180 2000, UK & INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872, US: + 1 516 447 5632. On the key P&L items, in 1Q24 we another very strong quarter with net profits of EUR 126m driven by continued high rates and low cost of risk.
EUROBANK (EUROB GA, OW)
Eurobank will post 1Q24 results tomorrow after the market close. We expect net profits of EUR 320m (vs. EUR 340m in 4Q23) on EUR 553m NII, EUR 230m opex and EUR 85m provisions. The management will host a conference call tomorrow at 17:45 local time (17:00 CET). Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632.
Market Comment // Trading in negative territory for a second consecutive day and contrary to the modest gains registered in EU markets, the ASE General index closed at 1,471.78 points (-0.29%) on Tuesday. In terms of trading activity, turnover remained subdued at €106.3mn, below the 100-day moving average of €136mn. Titan Cement (-3.84%), Eurobank (-2.50%), Terna Energy (-2.32%) and Ellaktor (-2.17%) led laggards, followed by Quest, Gek Terna, PPC, Lamda Development and Elvalhalcor (on >1% losses). On the flipside, Profile soared by 2.92%, followed by Cenergy, Kri-Kri, NBG and EYDAP (all posting gains >1%). Today markets look poised for a positive opening as investors await U.S. consumer-price data due later in the day.
MSCI // MSCI Quarterly Index Review resulted in no changes for the MSCI Greece Standard Index and 2 additions in the MSCI Greece Small Cap Index, namely Athens International Airport (AIA) and Optima Bank. Changes will become effective as of the close of Friday May 31st. As a reminder, the MSCI Greece Standard Index consists of 10 stocks, namely OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Piraeus Bank, Mytilineos and Motor Oil.
Eurobank // Eurobank will report Q1 2024 earnings tomorrow, after market close, followed by a conference call at 15:45 UK time. According to Visible Alpha, NII and total revenues are set to decrease 2% and 7% q/q (i.e. vs record Q4’23 levels) coming in at €563mn (vs €573mn in Q4 2023) and €712mn (vs €769mn in Q4 2023) respectively. On a yoy basis though, NII is set to post c12% growth, indicating a very robust start to the year. The q/q decline is attributed to lower non-core income and hedging costs weighing on NII. Consequently, adjusted net profit is poised to decrease q/q to €320mn (vs €340mn in Q4 2023) due to the sequentially lower revenues, which will offset the q/q reduction in impairments. On a yoy basis, adj. net profit looks primed for growth in excess of 20%.
Alpha Bank // Alpha Bank is scheduled to release its Q1 2024 earnings report tomorrow, before market opening, followed by a conference call at 10:00 UK time (12:00 GR time). We anticipate another robust quarter with Core PPI of €321mn, +19% y/y. This figure is slightly above VA consensus of €318mn and shows a 9% decline from the previous quarter on higher OpEx and lower NII due to seasonality, hedging losses and increased funding costs, which are poised to offset the lower impairments. This leads to an Adj. RoTE (post Excess Capital) of 12.5% for Q1’24, slightly below the guidance of 13%.
HelleniQ Energy // Scheduled to release Q1’2024 results tomorrow after market close. In a quarter with improved refining margins qoq, we expect strong results, albeit at lower levels yoy. Based on our estimate of a realized refining margin of $17/bbl (-23% yoy but double what we consider mid-cycle level), we forecast adj. EBITDA of €303mn (-25% yoy) filtering through to adj. net profit of €172mn (-32% yoy).
OTE // Q1’24 results were in line with our estimates with EBITDAaL +1.2% yoy underpinned by strong performance in Greek mobile and stabilization in fixed, partly offset by persisting weakness in Romania. Net profit settled at €135m, -0.4% yoy weighed down by higher VES costs yoy. Given the base effects in the remainder of the year (tough comp in Q4, easy comps in 9M), growth is set to be front-loaded in 2024 and in that regard, we do not anticipate changes to estimates. With regards to the separation of OTE’s tower assets into a 100%-owned separate subsidiary, mgt suggested at the conference call that this decision was part of its usual approach of “examining opportunities”, so any monetization action related to that does not look to be a theme for 2025 or even 2026, we believe.
Optima Bank // AGM on 23rd May to approve, among others, a DPS from 2023 profits of €0.44 (DY at 3.8%). The ex-date is set for June 25th.
Sarantis // Announced changes in the BoD, by naming Mr. Kyriakos Sarantis Chairman and Mr. Grigoris Sarantis as non-executive Vice Chair, while Mr. Giannis Bouras was appointed CEO (from Deputy CEO previously). Changes came into effect as of May 13, 2024.
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