Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (15.01.2025)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Άνοδο κατά 0,19% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1493,11 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 116,9 εκ. ευρώ. Ο ΓΔ κρατήθηκε σε θετικό έδαφος σε όλη τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίασης με τη μεταβλητότητα ωστόσο να μην ξεπερνά τις 8 μονάδες και με τον Τιτάν πρωταγωνιστή με συμπαραστάτη τη Eurobank και τον ΟΠΑΠ. Σαν αποτέλεσμα η απόπειρα προσέγγισης των 1500 μονάδων δεν στέφθηκε από επιτυχία με το κλείσιμο στις δημοπρασίες να γίνεται με μικρά κέρδη. Την ίδια ώρα οι ευρωπαϊκές αγορές κινούνταν με κέρδη και οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,46%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+0,57%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με τη Eurobank (+2,06%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε ο Τιτάν (+3,49%, 283,7 χιλ. τεμ.), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+2,18%), ο Σαράντης (+0,93%), η Βιοχάλκο (+0,35%) αλλά και ο ΟΤΕ (-1,15%), η Cenergy (-1,01%), η Lamda (-1,93%), η ΕΕΕ (-0,86%), το ΔΑΑ (-0,74%), ο Μυτιληναίος (-0,97%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-0,70%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-0,68%) και η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-0,33%). Απολογιστικά, 55 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 49 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν Σε απόλυτο συντονισμό με τις διεθνείς αγορές, ο Γ.Δ. αντέδρασε ανοδικά, ωστόσο η αντίδραση ήταν αναιμική και καθόλου πειστική. Το καθοδικό χάσμα στις 1503 μονάδων αποτελεί την πλησιέστερη αξιόλογη αντίσταση, ενώ οι 1484 μονάδες αποτελούν την πλησιέστερη ισχυρή και κρίσιμη για την βραχυπρόθεσμη τάση, στήριξη.
JP Morgan: διατηρεί την αναβαθμισμένη σύστασή της σε overweight για την Ελλάδα, βάσει της καλύτερης από την Ευρωζώνη ανάπτυξης του ΑΕΠ και τους πρόσφατα εξυγιασμένους ισολογισμούς των τραπεζών, που οδηγούν σε αποδόσεις για τους μετόχους.
BofA: θέτει τη Eurobank ως κορυφαία επιλογή από την Ελλάδα το 2025, αλλά και ανάμεσα στις κορυφαίες επιλογές από την περιοχή της Ευρώπης, Μέσης Ανατολής και Αφρικής (EEMEA). Τιμή στόχος €3,1.
Προχωρά το IPO της Titan America για εισαγωγή στη Wall Street.
10ετές ομόλογο: Σηκώνει 4 δισ. ευρώ με επιτόκιο 3,6% η Αθήνα. Προσφορές-μαμούθ άνω των 40,5 δισ. ευρώ από διεθνείς επενδυτές για την έκδοση του 10ετούς, με την υπερκάλυψη να ξεπερνά τις 10 φορές.
Με ανώτατη τιμή τα €4 ανά μετοχή η IPO της Alter Ego Media. Με στόχο την άντληση 57 εκατ. ευρώ προχωρά η Δημόσια Προσφορά της εταιρείας του Ευ. Μαρινάκη.
Intralot: Συμβιβασμός έναντι $ 5 εκ. με την περιφέρεια Washington DC.
Jumbo: Με ρυθμό 6,3% έτρεξαν πέρυσι οι πωλήσεις παρά τον «αναιμικό» Δεκέμβριο (+2%). Πάνω από το guidance (4%) τα έσοδα της Jumbo το 2024.
Προ των πυλών η απόκτηση από τον Henry Holterman πιστοποιητικού καταλληλότητας από την εποπτική αρχή. Στόχος η αύξηση του ποσοστού του στην Alpha άνω του 10%.
Πτώση 2,8% στις τιμές εισαγωγών στη βιομηχανία το Νοέμβριο.
*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed north yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.19% at 1,493.11 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.22%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.38%, Banks Index: +0.57%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 115.6m, down from Monday’s EUR 116.7m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today.

Macro Headlines

Greece issues a new 10-year Bond

Greece raised yesterday EUR 4bn with the issuance of a new 10-year Bond, maturing on 15 June 2035 at MS +102bps with total bids exceeding EUR 40bn.

Overall Import Price Index (MPI) decreased in November

According to ELSTAT, the Overall Import Price Index (MPI) in Industry in November 2024 recorded a decrease of 2.8% y-o-y, while in November 2023, the MPI had recorded a y-o-y decrease of 8.6%. The 2.8% y-o-y decrease of the MPI was mainly driven by the 7.2% y-o-y decrease of the Energy products sub-index while the Non-durable consumer goods sub-index rose by 1.0% y-o-y. Over the twelve-month December 2023- November 2024 period, the MPI decreased by 2.8% compared to the December 2022- November 2023 period.

Company Headlines

Titan America Files Registration Statement for Proposed Initial Public Offering in the US

Titan Cement International announced that it has filed a registration statement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “TTAM.”. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or other terms of the offering. The IPO is planned to consist of a primary offering by Titan America, as well as a secondary sale by Titan Cement International SA.

Comment: US IPO progresses according to schedule, as the company has guided for completion of the IPO in 1Q25. As a reminder, the US operations account for >60% of group turnover and profitability, hence we expect that the listing of the US subsidiary in the NYSE will unlock hidden value and further rerate the stock (in our selected Cement industries group, despite the recent stock rally, Titan still trades at a 40%-50% discount in 2025e EV/EBITDA and P/E terms against US peers). At this point, with the necessary details of the US IPO still pending, we continue valuing Titan with a DCF based valuation; we performed however, a relative valuation exercise for the US operations, which after applying a 10% discount (as the US IPO details are still pending), yields c. EUR 3.1bn EV for Titan US, c. EUR 4.4bn EV for the Group and c. EUR 3.95bn equity value after deducting our EUR 464m 2024e net debt estimate; that is a EUR 50/share implied equity value.

Jumbo FY24 sales update

Jumbo released its sales update for December 2024, however, the asymmetric supply chain issues and the inability to deliver products to the stores within specific timeframes affected the entire year, on top of that, the international and domestic economic environment became more complex.  Group sales were up by +2.0% y-o-y, driven by parent net sales (up by 3% y-o-y), Cyprus (+1% y-o-y), and followed by Bulgaria (-4% y-o-y) and Romania (+4% y-o-y). In FY24, the Group’s sales recorded an overall increase of c. +6.3% y-o-y marginally lower than our initial estimate for +8% y-o-y sales increase, with Greek sales up by +6% y-o-y, Romania sales also up by +9% y-o-y, Bulgarian sales gained +6% y-o-y, while Cypriot sales were up by +2% y-o-y. Management highlighted that political developments in the United States, and the increased possibility of trade tariffs as well as the supply chain issues, are headwinds which are almost impossible to quantify and for these reasons it will provide a FY25 guidance after the lapsing of the first four months of 2025. Also, management restated that another hyperstore will open in Romania during FY25. It is recalled that in FY24 Jumbo started a new owned hyper store in Oradea, Romania, a new owned hyper store in Bucharest, Romania and a new owned hyper store in Nicosia, Cyprus as well as Karditsa and Larissa stores restarted its operations. Jumbo is now operating with a network of 88 stores.

Alpha Services and Holdings to redeem 2030 notes on 13 February

According to Bloomberg, Alpha Services and Holdings will redeem on 13 February the entire principal amount outstanding (EUR 131,165,000) of the EUR 500m Subordinated Fixed Rate Reset Tier 2 Notes due 2030.

Intralot settled with Washington DC

Intralot announced that its US subsidiary Intralot, Inc signed on 10 January 2025, a settlement agreement with the District of Washington DC, by and through its Office of the Attorney General, to settle a civil matter. The issue related to the 2019 lottery games contract in that district and specifically to the percentage of works subcontracted to local businesses. The settlement provides for a $5.0m payment while Intralot, Inc denies any admission of fault, so that a long-term litigation and substantial legal expenses to be avoided. With the settlement agreed, the contracts and operations of the group are not affected. The news is positive as Intralot Inc accounts for 42% of group revenues and 54% of group EBITDA. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 1.50/share.

Motor Oil completes the disposal of 250k treasury shares

Motor Oil announced the disposal of 11,000 own shares at EUR 21.10/share on 13 January and the disposal of a block trade of 147k shares at 20.80/share on 1 January. Consequently, Motor Oil has completed the sale of 250k treasury shares (acquired at an average price of EUR 13.52/share) at an average sale price of EUR 20.95/share.

Motodynamics is in negotiations with Toyota Hellas

The company announced that it is entering into negotiations for the distribution of Toyota Hellas products in the Greek market.

Prospectus for ALTER EGOs IPO approved-IPO timetable

The prospectus for the IPO of ALTER EGO was approved yesterday, with the public offer for up to 14,249,000 new shares is expected to commence on 20 January and conclude on 22 January. The issuance price is expected to be determined on 22 January and the commencement of trading of all shares on 27 January.

Carval Investors reduced stake in Bank of Cyprus

Bank of Cyprus announced that Carval Investors reduced its stake on 13 January to 5.89% (440,502,243 shares) from 6.09% previously.

ELVALHALCOR secures a EUR 46m grant (press)

According to Newmoney.gr, ELVALHALCOR secured a EUR 46m grant from EUs Innovation Fund.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The market lost momentum by mid-day, finishing just above the flatline (+0.2%), on a EUR 115m turnover. Banks rose a modest 0.5%, with Eurobank gaining 2%, whereas Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank hovered around the flatline. On market’s top performers, Titan posted 3.5% gains, OPAP rose 2.1%, Sarantis was up 0.9%, while PPC and Jumbo ended flattish (+0.2%). Lamda and PPA marked 1.9% and 1.8% losses respectively, OTE slipped 1.1%, Cenergy was down 1%, followed by Motor Oil -0.4%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

Greece opened the books for the 10-year syndicated bond, with demand reportedly reaching EUR 40.5bn. PDMA raised EUR 4bn with the yield at 3.6%.

ALTER EGO MEDIA

The company announced the approval of the prospectus for the IPO with a SCI of up to EUR 57m on the maximum price of EUR 4.0/share. The subscription period is scheduled for January 20-22, with the commencement of trading of the shares on January 27th.

JUMBO <BELA GA, OW>

Jumbo released its monthly sales update, reporting a 2% yoy revenue growth in December 2024, bringing FY2024 sales growth to 6.3% yoy, i.e. EUR 1,150m, vs our forecasts of 7.0%. Broken down by region, sales in Greece increased in December stood at +3% yoy and +6% for 2024 or EUR 661m. December sales in Cyprus printed a 1% yoy increase, translated into a 2% yoy increase for the whole year (EUR 122m). Romanian sales came in at EUR 252m, or +9% for 2024 (+4% yoy in December), with Bulgaria witnessing a decline in yearly sales in December at -4% yoy, and +6% yoy for 2024 contributing EUR 114m. We remind that 2024 guidance stood at +4% yoy sales growth, after downgrading the guidance from +7%yoy initially. 2024 ended with Jumbo operating 88 stores, following the opening of three owned stores within the year, two in Romania (Bucharest, Oradea) and one in Cyprus (Nicosia). For 2025, the Group plans to open another hyper-store in Romania. 

TITAN <TITC GA, OW>

Titan announced that its US subsidiary, Titan America filed the registration statement for the IPO in New York Stock Exchange.

PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY <PPA GA>

PPA announced the commencement of MSC Cruise sailings at the Port of Piraeus, with the company expecting MCI ships to approach the port 110 times in 2025. As per the announcement, following the agreement PPA anticipates a significant increase in cruise arrivals compared to last year, surpassing the record of 1m homeporting passengers.

BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>

Bank of Cyprus announced that Carval decreased its stake to 5.89% from 6.09% previously.

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

Motor Oil announced the completion of the sale of the 250k own shares at an average selling price of EUR 20.9/share.

INTRALOT <INLOT GA>

Intralot announced that its US subsidiary signed a settlement agreement with the District of Washington DC regarding a civil matter related to the 2019 lottery games contract in that district. The payment as per the settlement is USD 5m, while the contracts and operations of the group will not be affected.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Greek equities rebounded on Tuesday following two consecutive losing sessions, with the General Index edging up +0.19% while trading within a narrow range (+0.02% to +0.57%). Trading activity remained below the 100-day moving average of €145.2m at €115.6mn. Lamda Development led laggards, dropping 1.93%, followed by PPA (-1.84%), Performance Tech (-1.74%), OTE (-1.15%), Cenergy Holdings (-1.01%), and Fourlis (-1.00%), all posting losses >1%. On the upside, Titan soared +3.49%, followed by Attica Bank (+2.6%), Briq (+2.34%), OPAP (+2.18%), and Eurobank (+2.06%). Additionally, Optima Bank, Austriacard, Admie, Thrace Plastics, Intracom, and Thessaloniki Port Authority recorded gains above 1%. European futures point to a slight positive opening, as markets await highly anticipated consumer price index reports from the U.S., along with earnings releases from major U.S. banks.

Economy // Overwhelming demand for Greece’s 10-year bond issue (>€40bn bids), with the Public Debt Management Agency eventually raising €4bn at 3.64% (102bps over mid-swap rate). With this issue, Greece has already met 50% of its borrowing goals for 2025.

Alter Ego Media // The HCMC approved Alter Ego Media’s prospectus yesterday, giving the green light for the company’s upcoming IPO which will run between 20-22nd January. The price range will be announced on 17th Jan, with the maximum price set at €4/per share and the company reportedly seeking to raise up to c€57m.

Titan Cement // The group’s US subsidiary, Titan America, has filed for an IPO with the SEC, aiming to list on the NYSE under the ticker “TTAM.” The offering, subject to market conditions, includes a primary and secondary sale. The registration is pending SEC approval.

Jumbo // The FY24 trading update released yesterday revealed sales a bit below our expectation but still far better than management guidance. In particular, 2024 sales shaped +6.3% higher year on year compared to management guidance of +4%, with December sales +2%. December seems to have been somewhat affected by supply chain issues, but still eclipsed management guidance.

Motodynamics // Motodynamics announced that it is entering into negotiations with Toyota Hellas S.A. regarding a collaboration for the distribution of Toyota products through the Motodynamics Group.