Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (14.12.2023)

ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 4^th consecutive session, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 0.72% at 1,292.35 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.96%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.14%, Banks Index: +1.91%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 87.2m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 94.7m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, following the positive sentiment in international markets.

SSM positive for dividend distributions 

Press reports  suggest that SSM is positive Greek banks to distribute dividends in 2023.

National Bank of Greece Growth Pillars-Press

Reportedly  the growth pillars of the bank will be the loan expansion in energy, construction and trade both in Greece and abroad as well as the increase of LTV in mortgages to 90% in some cases from current 80%. NBG will apply Frontier III (NPEs of EUR 600m) to Hercules III. The same reports reiterate that management targets a dividend payout of 20%-30% in 2023, in line with our estimate. Finally, the disposal of remaining stake of HFSF (18.39%) could take place from May 2024. Other press reports (mononews) indicate that 300 employees participated in the VES program. We remain positive on the stock with a TP of EUR 8.00/share.

PPC to approve the expansion of its activities in today’s EGM

PPC holds an EGM today, to approve among others the amendment of the articles of incorporation of the company so as to expand its presence to non-core activities, including a) the trade, supply and sale of and similar products and services, and equipment technology, b) the establishment or participation  in the share capital of credit or investment services companies, c) the engagement in commercial and industrial activities in the telecommunications and IT services sector, d) the engagement in commercial and industrial activities in the telecom and IT services sector, e) the participation in public tendering procedures for Contracts for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), f) Waste management and electricity generation.

Ideal Holdings Common Bond public offering oversubscribed 1.9x

The company announced that it raised EUR 100.0m through the public offering of the common bond loan. Total demand was EUR 188.6m, resulting in an oversubscription of the issue by 1.9x. The final yield and the interest rate of the bond was set at 5.50% per annum. According to the prospectus, the trading of the bond on the fixed income securities segment of the regulated market of ATHEX will commence on 18 December. 

Sunrise Mezz plc coupon payment

The company announced that between 6 and 21 November 2023, it has received coupon payments corresponding to the preceding 3-month period, amounting to a total of EUR 3.67m.

Phoenix Vega Mezz plc coupon payment

The company announced that between 2 and 14 November 2023, it has received coupon payments corresponding to the preceding 3-month period, amounting to a total of EUR 4.46m.

Galaxy Cosmos Mezz to trade ex-capital return today 

The stock will trade ex-capital return today (EUR 0.1064/share, yield: 18,8%) and payment will commence on 20 December.

Aegean holds an EGM today

Aegean Airlines will hold an EGM today (11:00 local time) to discuss among others the repurchase of its warrants from the state.

Athens 72bps higher with banks outperforming, up 1.9% and investors participation c.25% below ytd average. Out of the four systemic Alpha Bank stood out, up 2.6%, followed by NBG +2.1%. Good day for OPAP +1.9%, MYTIL +1.1% and PPC +1.4%.

 BANKS I

The SSM is positively inclined to approve dividend distributions for Greek banks, based on the discussions with management during the SREP process. The banks would like to provide a clear message to the market during the announcement of FY23 results.

Dividend distributions from 2023 net earnings is also our base case scenario in our models. We currently assume a pay-out ratio of 25% for NBG and Eurobank, 20% for Alpha and 10% for Piraeus.

 BANKS II

NPL services could target to sell to the banks up to EUR 10bn of performing loans over the next 3 to 5 years. The SSM is currently hesitant in providing the green light for the acquisition of performing loans from services in view of the high interest rate scenario. However, reportedly, this could change in 2024-25E.

We do not include in our model any capital allocation for performing loans, but it could be a positive addition to NII in the following years. The current domestic loan book for all banks is close to EUR 110bn. 

NBG <ETE GA, OW>

According to press reports , the divestment of the remaining 18% stake from the HFSF is targeted for 2024 after the end of the 6-month lock up period. The process could be an ABB or a combination of an ABB with a share buyback.

Market Comment // Greek stocks advanced 0.72% on Wednesday, rising for a 5th straight day and marking a 14-week high. Turnover slowed to €87m, down from €95m on Tuesday and below the 100-d moving average of €115m, with banks representing 43% of the transaction value. Alpha (+2.6%), NBG (+2.07%) and OPAP (+1.98%) led gainers, followed by Eurobank, PPC, Piraeus bank, Mytilineos, ELPE and Ellaktor (on >1% gains). On the other hand, Thrace Plastics (-2.83%) led laggards, trailed by losses of >1% in EXAE and Epsilon Net, with EYDAP (-0.96%) and Jumbo (-0.93%) also in the red. We expect a strong opening today, as the Fed’s dovish pivot has given markets a buoyant tone.

Banks // According to press the SSM has approved the reduction of Pillar 2 Requirement and Pillar 2 Guidance for most banks, a decision potentially providing positive signal in terms of dividend distribution prospects. Additionally, banking sources voice the need for clear regulatory guidance on dividend distribution scope in time for the announcement of FY23 results.

National Bank // During a press conference, NBG’s CEO highlighted that the bank plans to invest c€120mn-€160mn p.a. in its digital transformation, with the total investment expected to reach c€1bn for the period 2019-2025. NBG is also exploring synergies in trade, energy, and telecommunications to bolster its alternative income sources. The CEO also indicated that the divestment of the remaining 18% stake held by HFSF could potentially be initiated after the lock-up period ends in May.

Aegean // Scheduled EGM today (11:00am Athens time) for the approval of the buyback of the warrants. As a reminder, Aegean has until 2^nd January 2024 to exercise its right to buy back the warrants (worth c€85m). As per the draft agenda, 60% of shareholders have expressed their intent to vote in favor of the buyback.

IDEAL Holdings // Public bond offering successfully concluded yesterday; participation quite solid, with oversubscription at 1.89x the initial issue. Overall, IDEAL raised a total of €100m at a yield of 5.50% (on the lower end of the provided range).

PPC // EGM scheduled for today, with shareholders set to vote on amendments of the Articles of Incorporation and the Remuneration Policy.

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.