Υποχώρηση κατά 0,80% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1419,51 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 144,7 εκ. ευρώ. Οι πωλητές ανέλαβαν και πάλι από νωρίς την υπεροπλία καθώς η επιθυμία για κατοχύρωση κερδών στον τραπεζικό κλάδο συνεχίστηκε με αποτέλεσμα τις εκτεταμένες ρευστοποιήσεις. Όμως, για μια ακόμη ημέρα οι αγοραστές κινητοποιήθηκαν μετά το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαμηλό των 1415 μονάδων στις 3.30 μ.μ. περίπου και οδήγησαν το ΓΔ λίγο ψηλότερα μέχρι τις δημοπρασίες μειώνοντας τις απώλειες, με τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να υποχωρούν. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,227%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-2,02%) κατέγραψε απώλειες με την Εθνική (-3,37%) να υποαποδίδει. Απώλειες ακόμη κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (-1,46%), το Jumbo (-1,12%), η ΕΕΕ (- 1,29%), η Βιοχάλκο (-1,30%), η Autohellas (-1,47%), το ΔΑΑ (-2,01%) αλλά και η Αττικής (- 30%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε η ΔΕΗ (+0,82%), ο Τιτάν (+1,49%), η Lamda (+0,69%), o OTE (+0,53%) αλλά και οι Ευρωσύμβουλοι (+4,48%), η Δομική Κρήτης (+4,95%) και το ΚΡΙ-ΚΡΙ από τη μεσαία και μικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 33 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 56 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Οι εταιρείες Austrian Card, Lavipharm, Helleniq Energy, Aegean, ΟΤΕ και Πετρόπουλος ανακοινώνουν σήμερα τα αποτελέσματα 9μηνου ενώ η διοίκηση της ΔΕΗ θα αναφερθεί στο επιχειρηματικό σχέδιο της περιόδου 2025-27 σε επικοινωνία με την επενδυτική κοινότητα. Στις 1415 η πλησιέστερη στήριξη για το ΓΔ και στις 1426 μονάδες το κοντινότερο σημείο αντίστασης.
Οκταετές ομόλογο 500 εκατ. ευρώ εκδίδει η Coca Cola HBC. Οι τίτλοι εκδίδονται με εγγυήτρια την Coca Cola HBC ενώ θα είναι διαπραγματεύσιμοι στο London Stock Exchange.
ΔΕΗ: Κ.Ε. στα €6,6 δις (+20%). Προσαρμοσμένα καθαρά κέρδη μετά την αφαίρεση των δικαιωμάτων μειοψηφίας διαμορφώθηκαν σε €241 εκατ. από €144 εκ. το εννεάμηνο 2023. Ισχυρή λειτουργική κερδοφορία με το EBITDA να διαμορφώνεται σε €1.348 εκατ. λόγω και της προσθήκης των δραστηριοτήτων στη Ρουμανία αλλά και της Κωτσόβολος στην Ελλάδα. Μείωση της λιγνιτικής παραγωγής στο 15% του συνολικού ενεργειακού μείγματος. Επενδύσεις €1,6 δις με περίπου 80% σε έργα ΑΠΕ. Δείκτης Καθαρό Χρέος/EBITDA στο 2,7x από 2χ.
ATHEX headed south yesterday after three positive sessions in a row, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.80% at 1,419.51 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.96%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.26%, Banks Index: -2.02%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.7m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 148.3m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, with PPC, OTE and Aegean Airlines in the spotlight.
Company Headlines
PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 12.30 | TP: 17.40
3Q/9M24 Results – Solid quarter, in line with our estimates; Management reiterates EBITDA target of EUR 1.8bn and Net Profits of EUR 350m 3.8GW RES projects Under construction or Ready to build; Focus on today’s business presentation for 2025-27e
Facts: PPC reported in 9M24 turnover of EUR 6.58bn (+19.2% y-o-y, due to the contribution from Romania and Kotsovolos, which more than offset the market share losses), recurring EBITDA of EUR 1,348m (+43.9% y-o-y, 1.2% above our estimate), Net Profits at EUR 122m, and adjusted net profits after minorities at EUR 240.9m (mainly HEDNO and partnership with RWE). Net debt increased to EUR 4.6bn (2.7x net debt/EBITDA), up by EUR 1.4bn y-t-d driven by large capex of EUR 1.6bn (80% of which towards RES and distribution), remaining however below the 3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA mark. The management reiterated the annual EBITDA guidance of EUR 1.8bn and EUR 350m Net profits after minorities.
9M24 analysis: Electricity demand in Greece and Romania during 9M24 was up by 7% and 4% respectively, offsetting to some extent the market share losses in Greece (average market share during 9M24 dropped to 51% from 57% in 9M23), while PPC’s market share in Romania stood at 16%. Consequently, total revenues rose by 19.2% y-o-y to EUR 6,582bn, driven by the inclusion of the Romanian operations. On the expenditures front, oil-related expenses rose by 3.2% while natural gas costs dropped marginally by 0.3%, (driven by lower TTF prices which offset the higher output, TTF gas futures in 9M24 at 31.7 EUR/MWh from EUR 40.7/MWh a year ago). Driven by lower CO2 prices, CO2 costs dropped by 2.8% y-o-y to EUR 607.5m in 9M24. Additionally, the lower average DAM in 9M24 drove energy purchase costs lower by 16.4% y-o-y to EUR 1,255.2m. Moreover, personnel costs (including Romania) rose by 25.9% y-o-y to EUR 681.2m, and finally, bad debt provisions in 9M24 dropped to EUR 123.9m from EUR 143.9m last year. Below EBITDA, depreciation expenses were up by 45.6% y-o-y at EUR 683.6m (due to the inclusion of Romania and also RES additions), while net financial expenses jumped by 30.3% y-o-y to EUR 260.8m. FCF generation remained negative in 9M24 at EUR 877.7m due to the huge capex of EUR 1,600m, the adverse WC movement of EUR 820m and the EUR 245m towards share repurchases and dividend payments which more than offset the healthy gross operating cash flow generation of EUR 1,424m. Consequently, Group net debt rose by EUR 1.4bn y-t-d to EUR 4.6bn, implying a net debt/EBITDA of 2.7x.
Business plan presentation today: Investors focus shifts to the presentation of the updated financial targets and strategy for 2025-27e during today’s conference call at 14.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Under Review | Target Price U/R | CP: EUR 6.815
3Q24e preview | Soft Quarter, driven weak refining environment; Yearly forecasts and TP Under Review
3Q/9M24e results preview | HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 3Q24e results today, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled also for today day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 168m (-58% y-o-y, slightly above consensus estimate of EUR 165m) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 24m (consensus at EUR 39m) from EUR 218m in 3Q23. Accounting for the negative impact from inventory and other one-offs of EUR 50m, IFRS EBITDA and net income are seen at EUR 118m and loss of EUR 135m (assuming EUR 175m provision for the solidarity tax) respectively compared to EBITDA of EUR 505m and EUR 300m net profits in 3Q23.
3Q/9M24e Group Key P&L Estimates
Aegean Airlines || CP: EUR 9.80 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 14.70
3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
3Q24 results preview | Aegean Airlines is set to release 3Q24 results today, after market close. We expect a weaker quarter y-o-y on top line, derived from lower load factors and reduced international traffic. We forecast 3Q24 group revenues of EUR 631.0m (-3.5% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 181.1m (-20.5% y-o-y), affected by increased OpEx (higher fleet maintenance costs and increased fuel & leasing needs) with the respective margin at 28.7% in 3Q24 vs. 34.9% in 3Q23. Further down the P&L, we expect higher depreciation cost and lower financial expenses positively affected by FX gains following the dollar movement, driving Net profit down to EUR 102.9m vs. EUR 133.5m in 3Q23.
3Q24 Key forecasts
OTE 3Q/9M24 results out today
OTE is set to report 3Q/9M24 results today, before the opening of ATHEX. We expect a weak quarter burdened by the poor performance and a one-off tax cost in Romania. Thus, we estimate group revenues to come in at EUR 906.6m (+2.7% y-o-y) in 3Q24, EBITDA AL at EUR 355.4m (+0.3% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 139.4m (-8.2% y-o-y). Management will host a CC at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.
Lamda Development 9M24 results out
LAMDA Development announced 9M24 retail (Malls) EBITDA (excluding revaluation gains) of EUR 66 (+7% y-o-y), EBITDA from the Ellinikon project of EUR 31m (from negative EBITDA of EUR 20m a year ago, EBITDA from Marinas at EUR 16m (+14% vs. a year ago) and net losses (i.e. including non-cash finance costs, depreciation and deferred taxes) of EUR 14m vs. losses of EUR 6.1m a year ago. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Group amounted to EUR 1,4bn as of 30 September 2024 (EUR 7.93/share, implying a 8.6% discount to yesterday’s closing price) compared to EUR 1,392m or EUR 8.02/share as at 31 December 2023. Finally, total cash proceeds from property sales/leases in the Ellinikon reached EUR 967m, with the group total cash balance approaching EUR 633m
Autohellas’ 3Q/9M24 results out
Autohellas reported revenues of EUR 275.9m (-3.4% y-o-y), driven by weaker performance from the car trade business which was not offset by higher rental activity both domestically and internationally. Group EBITDA reached EUR 98.9m (+4.7% y-o-y) while net profits reached EUR 37.8m, posting an 8.0% y-o-y decrease. In 9M24 terms, sales decline marginally by -1.8% to EUR 749.1, due to weak car trade activity of EUR 385.9m (-8.0% y-o-y) driven by the lack of unfulfilled orders from previous years and despite the 6.9% sales growth from the domestic rentals segment. On the profitability front, Group EBITDA reached EUR 219.7m, up by 2.6% while net profit recorded a 5.5% y-o-y increase to EUR 72.0m (positively affected by the EUR 8m and EUR 1m dividend receipts from Aegean Airlines and Trade Estates respectively). It is noted that the activity of Italian Motion (FIAT/JEEP/Alfa Romeo) is not included in consolidated revenues and recorded sales of EUR 116.4m in 9M24, enhancing the Group’s overall activity.
Coca Cola HBC issued new bond
Reportedly (Bloomberg), Coca-Cola HBC announced that its subsidiary Coca-Cola HBC Finance issued a 8yr note of EUR 500m at a yield of 3.125%. The notes will be guaranteed by Coca-Cola HBC.
Corinth Pipeworks completes strategic capacity expansion
Cenergy Holdings announces that Corinth Pipeworks, completed its capacity expansion investment with the installation of a new, dedicated finishing line in a separate covered area, which will enable the execution of two steel pipe projects in parallel.
Bank of Cyprus extended the CEO term until 2028
Bank of Cyprus announced that the BoD decided to extend the appointment of Mr Panicos Nicolaou, as Group CEO to 31 December 2028.
Thrivest Holdings holds a 18.34% stake in Attica Bank
Attica Bank announced that Thrivest Holdings Ltd increased its stake after the share capital increase to 18.34% (66,032,267 common shares) from 8.71% previously.
Motodynamics Group CFO will retire
The company announced that the Group CFO Mr. Dimitris Bozas will retire and will be replaced by Mrs. Magdalini Rizou as of 01.01.25. Mrs. Magdalini Rizou is now a Deputy Group CFO and was the Accounting Manager of the Group.
Market Comment // Greek stocks dropped on Wednesday as profit taking prevailed throughout the session, with the benchmark index retreating -0.80% led by banks. Trading activity remained elevated at €144m, c10% above the YtD average. Banks shed 2% ending an 8-day winning streak, with NBG underperforming (-3.37%), trailed by a >1% drop in Piraeus and Eurobank and a milder decline in Alpha. Among non-financials, Intralot, IDEAL and AIA lost more than 2%, while Fourlis, Autohellas, MOH, Viohalco, CCH, Premia, ELPE, EXAE, Jumbo and Aegean retreated >1%. On the positive side, Kri Kri (+4.2%) stood out among gainers, followed by gains >1% in OLP, Titan and Profile. We see a mixed opening today as markets are seeking direction while investor risk appetite is tempered somewhat by yesterday’s US inflation data.
OTE // Q3 results today pre market open. OTE’s Q3 results look set to mirror those of Q2, albeit with more tepid top line growth due to tough low-margin revenue comps. Overall, we model 3.2% revenue growth (+4.2% growth in Greece) filtering through to adj. EBITDAaL of €354m in the quarter, namely just 0.4% yoy, as cemented 1.5% EBITDAaL growth in Greece will be offset by ongoing Romania weakness. The aforementioned operating results will feed into reported net profit of €154m, +2.5% yoy by our math, due to lower financial expenses. A conference call will follow on the same day at 11: 00 UK time (13:00 Athens time). Dial in: Greece + 30 210 9460 800; UK & Other International + 44 203 059 5872; USA + 1 516 447 5632; Germany +49 (0) 69 2222 4493.
HelleniQ Energy // Set to release Q3’24 results today, after market close. Based on our estimate of a realized refining margin of $9.5/bbl (vs. $20.5/bbl in Q3’23), we project Q3’24 revenue at €3.11bn (-9% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €163mn (-59% yoy). Accounting for inventory losses of €41mn (compared to gains of €105mn in Q3’23) and the €173mn one-off solidarity tax contribution (based on FY’23 profits), we expect HelleniQ Energy to report a Q3’24 net loss of €166mn.
Aegean Airlines // Aegean is scheduled to release Q3’24 results today, after-market. We forecast a c4% drop in Q3 revenues (€628m), led by a 2% yoy drop in Q3 passengers (or flat ex Animawings) and a c1% assumed drop in average fares. We see Q3 EBITDA shaping at €181m, -17% yoy, and net profit at €103m, -23% yoy, thus pointing to 9M EBITDA of €329m (-11% yoy) and net profit of €126m (-26% yoy). Performance will be affected by the challenging comparison to a peak Q3 period in 2023 and the grounding of part of Aegean’s new fleet due to GTF engine issues.
PPC // Reported robust Q3’24 results broadly in line with our estimates with Q3’24 revenue at €2.56bn (+32% yoy) and EBITDA at €421mn (+21% yoy; +1% vs EE est.), driven by strong performance across both its integrated business and distribution segments. On the bottom line, PPC’s Q3’24 adjusted net income (after minorities) came in at €61mn (+6% yoy), bringing the 9m’24 figure to €241mn (+67% yoy). Management reiterated the guidance for FY’24 recurring EBITDA of €1.8bn and adjusted net income (after minorities) of €0.35bn.
Lamda // Lamda reported 9M’24 results above our forecasts at EBITDA level, driven by better-than-expected Ellinikon and Lamda Malls profitability. 9M’24 adj. EBITDA pre-revaluations came in €85.7m, +143% yoy (a 9% beat to our forecast) and reported EBITDA shaped at €94m (+22% yoy) above our €90m forecast. However significant net financial costs and higher than anticipated taxed weighed on the bottom line leading to net losses of €14m (vs €6m net losses in 9M’23 and below our -€9.6m estimate). As for Q3, reported EBITDA settled at €41m on revenues of €130m, while net profit was €4.6m, reversing the Q3’23 net losses of €25m.
Autohellas // Autohellas reported Q3’24 results above our estimates with Q3’24 EBITDA at €99m, up by 4.7% yoy and c€5m above our forecast, despite a revenue drop of 3.4% yoy (€276m). 9-mth revenues stood at €749m (-1.8% yoy) while EBITDA rose 2.6% yoy to €219.7m, pointing to an improved margin. Net profit in the 9-months was up 3.7% reaching €72m, underpinned by profit from investments. Overall, results seem to support our FY’24 forecasts for €275m EBITDA and c€80m net profit, despite challenges faced, a quite solid performance in our view.
Greek Banks // According to Fitch, the plans of Greece’s four systemic banks to accelerate the amortisation of deferred tax credits (DTCs) should help to normalise their capital structures. Faster amortisation will improve capital quality, facilitate regulatory discussions on capital distributions and improve capital flexibility, benefitting the banks’ credit profiles in the long term.
Cenergy // The Group’s steel pipes segment has invested in a new dedicated finishing line, allowing its Longitudinal and Helical Submerged Arc Welding pipe mills to operate independently, improving flexibility and reducing delivery times. This upgrade supports increased demand and positions LSAW for offshore gas and carbon capture pipelines, while HSAW focuses on large onshore gas and hydrogen projects.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.