Citi: Στα τρία top picks του μεταλλευτικού κλάδου η Metlen. Μαζί με τον ελληνικό όμιλο, η Citi τοποθετεί και δύο εταιρείες του FTSE 100 στο 2025 Top 3: της Antofagasta ($22 δισ. κεφαλαιοποίηση) και της Fresnillo (πάνω από $6 δισ. κεφαλαιοποίηση). Τιμή-στόχος τα €46.
RND: Η Αθήνα αποπληρώνει πρόωρα δάνεια ύψους 8 δισ. ευρώ. Η ελληνική κυβέρνηση μειώνει το χρέος της πιο γρήγορα από ό,τι είχε προγραμματιστεί. Σύμφωνα και με τον διοικητή της Τράπεζας της Ελλάδος, Γιάννη Στουρνάρα, σε μία 40ετία η χώρα θα μπορέσει να κατακτήσει τον στόχο του ανώτατου ορίου δείκτη εθνικού χρέους (60% του ΑΕΠ) βάσει του Συμφώνου Σταθερότητας.
ATHEX headed north yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.44% at 1,464.03 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.51%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.05%, Banks Index: +0.15%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 136.5m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 139.3m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today, lacking any catalysts.
Sector Headlines
ECB lowered key rates by 25bps for a fourth time in a row
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided yesterday to lower the three key interest rates by 25 bps. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.00%, 3.15% and 3.40% respectively, with effect from 18 December 2024. Recall that the ECB has lowered its key interest rates by 100bps in 2024.
International passenger traffic up in November (Fraport Greece)
According to Fraport Greece (operator of the 14 regional Greek airports), international passenger traffic in Greek airports in November 2024 rose by 23.2% y-o-y, while in 11M24, international passenger traffic increased by 6.4% y-o-y to 26,242k travelers.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY’s CEO comments on ELPEDISON acquisition (press)
According press, the CEO of HELLENiQ ENERGY, Mr. Siamishis said that following the acquisition of ELPEDISON, HELLENiQ ENERGY now targets to extend its market share in the electricity supply business to 10% (from c. 6% currently), while no final investment decision has been taken yet regarding the construction of a new CCGT and a FSRU in Thessaloniki. Additionally, according to Euro2day.gr, the sale of HE’s 35% stake in DEPA commercial is a matter of days, and half of the EUR 200m proceeds will be returned to the shareholders (c. EUR 0.30/share).
Attica Bank 9M24 results
The new Attica Bank Group (including Pancreta Bank) posted a net loss of EUR 343.3m in 9M24 from EUR 15.2m in 9M23, due to skyrocketed LLPs of EUR 404.7m that included NPE clean up costs. NII came in at EUR 64.6m (+25% y-o-y) with NIM at 2.2%, fee income at EUR 12.0m (+102% y-o-y) and revenues at EUR 91.8m (+24% y-o-y). Opex reached EUR 70.6m (+17% y-o-y) and hence PPI was shaped at EUR 21.2m (+52% y-o-y). The NPE ratio before the NPE clean-up was shaped at 54.1% and is expected to fall below 3.0% in 2024, post NPE transactions. Net credit expansion reached EUR 795m y-t-d, with net loans at EUR 3.04bn (+34% y-o-y), deposits at EUR 5.73bn (+82% y-o-y), assets at EUR 6.35bn, pro-forma tangible equity at EUR 621.1m (EUR 0.38/share) and CET1 ratio at 13.1%. Management aims performing loans to exceed EUR 7.0bn, deposits to reach EUR 11.0bn, pre-provision profit to surpass EUR 280m and RoaTBV in excess of 20% by 2027.
Attica Bank completed synthetic securitization of EUR 220m performing loans
Attica Bank announced that it has completed a synthetic securitization of EUR ca220.0m performing SME and Large corporate portfolio, through the direct issuance of the Credit Linked Notes and the sale of the mezzanine tranche to an entity advised by Davidson Kempner Capital Management. The transaction is expected to reduce RWAs by EUR ca150.0m, and to enhance the capital position by 50bps.
Aegean’s new Green Hangar included in Strategic Investment programme
The international committee for strategic investments approved a budget of EUR 74.75m out of a total amount of EUR 140m as part the Aegean Airlines’ investment in the Green Hangar (aircraft service and maintenance center as well as flight simulator and crew training center at Athens International Airport)
Greek equities posted modest gains on Thursday (+0.4%), marking minimal fluctuations, while trading value stood at EUR 136m. Banks finished on the flatline, with Eurobank’s 1.3% losses offsetting Piraeus Bank’s (+1.5%) and Bank of Cyprus (+0.8%) performance. Metlen continued to outperform, up 2.1% on the day, on top of Wednesday’s 1.1% gains, PPA and PPC returned on green territory, rising 1.7% and 1.1% respectively, followed by Titan +0.7%. Most large cap stocks ended on the green, whereas GEK Terna was down 0.6%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
ATTICA BANK <TATT GA>
Attica Bank announced 9M24 pro-forma results post HAPS and merger with Pancreta. The new bank reported NII of EUR 114m with recuring revenues at EUR 145m and recurring PPI at EUR 30m. The performing loan book stood at EUR 2.9bn (c.2.6% market share) with deposits at EUR 5.7bn (c.2.8% market share). The NPE ratio fell below 3% post HAPS with coverage at >50%. The 3Q24 pro-forma CET1 ratio recovered to 13.1% post SCI with the tangible book value at EUR 621m. The management is targeting a 2027 ROTE of >20% on a C/I ratio of <40% and a recuring pre-provision profitability of >EUR 280m. On other news, Attica Bank announced the successful completion of its first synthetic securitization of a SME and large corporate portfolio of a total value of EUR 220m. The transaction, under the Project Perseus, is expected to enhance the bank’s capital position (+50bps), by reducing RWA by EUR 150m.
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
Reportedly, management highlighted that, following the acquisition of 100% of Elpedison, the retail electricity supplier is targeting a 10% market share by 2026. The CEO also mentioned that the sale of 35% stake of DEPA to the State will be completed soon.
Market Comment // The Greek market traded in positive territory throughout Thursday’s session, rising 0.44% to close at 1,464.03 points. Trading activity remained robust, with turnover reaching €136mn, in line with the YTD average. Among blue chips, Metlen stood out advancing 2.2%, followed by Attica Bank, PPA and Piraeus Bank (all up >1.5%). HelleniQ Energy, PPC, and Aegean Airlines also posted gains in excess of 1%. On the other hand, Dimand and Eurobank lost 1.5% and 1.4% respectively, followed by Fourlis (-1.2%), Autohellas (-1.2%), and EYDAP (-1.0%). Today, EU futures point to a negative opening in a sign of defensive posturing ahead of the year-end following the recent positive streak.
ADMIE Holding // Scheduled to release its Q3 2024 results on Monday, 16th December (before market). We expect its affiliate, IPTO, to deliver improved yoy results, estimating Q3 2024 EBITDA at €87.8mn (+15% YoY), driven by easier comps and higher interconnection rights approved by the regulator since Q1’24. As a result, we forecast a 31% increase in ADMIE Holding’s Q3 2024 net profit, estimating it will settle at €22.0mn.
HelleniQ Energy // According to the Group’s CEO, the agreement for the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Elpedison is set to be finalised within the next couple of months. HelleniQ Energy plans to grow Elpedison, targeting a 10% market share by 2026 through synergies and renewable energy integration.
Trade Estates // Ex-div on Monday 16th December for an interim dividend of €0.048/share (2.9% yield). As a reminder, the dividend will be on net basis, as dividends from REICs are not subject to withholding tax. Payment will commence on 23rd December.
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