ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 3rd session in a row, well outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index gained 0.18% at 1,430.91 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.20%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.10%, Banks Index: +1.04%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 148.3m, up from Monday’s EUR 124.9m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today.
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece issued a new green senior bond
National Bank of Greece raised EUR 650m through the issue of a new green bond (MREL eligible) at a yield of 3.5%. The bond has a maturity of six years is and callable after five. The issue received strong investor demand, attracting ca EUR 4.0bn and was oversubscribed by more than six times.
Bank of Cyprus 3Q/9M24 results
Net profit in 3Q24 came in at EUR 131m (-5% q-o-q) and at EUR 401m (+15% y-o-y) in 9M24. ROTE was shaped at 22.9% in 9M24. Net interest income reached EUR 204m (-1% q-o-q) and NIM squeezed by 16bps q-o-q to 3.52%. Revenues stood at EUR 173m (+2% q-o-q) and OpEx rose by 14% q-o-q. Tangible equity stood at EUR 2.46bn (EUR +122m q-o-q), net loans reached EUR 10.0bn, deposits EUR ca20.0bn and assets EUR 25.9bn. Management reiterated that it is on track to meet FY targets and aims a distribution payout of 50% in 2024, implying a yield of >10%.
PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 11.02 | TP: 17.40
9M24e Preview – Solid Results, in trajectory to meet the annual recurring EBITDA guidance; focus on the updated targets
PPC is scheduled to release its 9M24 results today, post market close, with a conference call (during which the management will present the updated business plan for 2024-27) scheduled for the next day at 14.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We expect Group turnover of EUR 6,480m (+17.3% YoY, of which c EUR 1,510m from Romania) and recurring EBITDA of EUR 1,331.7m (+42.1% YoY, supported by the EUR c250m contribution from Romania). Assuming EUR 48m one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 1,283.7m (vs. EUR 915.5m last year) and reported net profits after minorities of EUR 187.2m, down by 17.1% on tough comparable (note that 9M23 Results were positively affected by the EUR 141.6m one off gain from the lignite areas). Finally, excluding one-off items, we expect Net Profits after minorities to shape at EUR 224.7m (up by 127.7% y-o-y).
Aegean Airlines || CP: EUR 9.90 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 14.70
3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
3Q24 results preview | Aegean Airlines is set to release 3Q24 results on Thursday 14 November, after market closing. We expect a weaker quarter y-o-y on top line, derived from lower load factors and reduced international traffic. We forecast 3Q24 group revenues of EUR 631.0m (-3.5% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 181.1m (-20.5% y-o-y), affected by increased OpEx (higher fleet maintenance costs and increased fuel & leasing needs) with the respective margin at 28.7% in 3Q24 vs. 34.9% in 3Q23. Further down the P&L, we expect higher depreciation cost and lower financial expenses positively affected by FX gains following the dollar movement, driving Net profit down to EUR 102.9m vs. EUR 133.5m in 3Q23.
Analysis | More specifically, revenues decrease is attributable to increased competition and market share losses, which more than offset the flat passenger traffic for Aegean (AIA reported historically high numbers in 9M24, with total passenger traffic +13.3% y-o-y). Aegean’s passenger traffic recorded a marginal 0.2% y-o-y increase in 3Q24 as foreign passengers was lower (-3.4% y-o-y) to c. 3.1m vs. 3.2m in 3Q24, impacted by reduced flight activity in Middle East. The company has shifted its focus into the main airports of the country (international passengers to/from Athens and Thessaloniki up by 3% while domestic passenger traffic was up by 5.7% y-o-y) to address the problem with the Neo family engines, routes with stronger competition. AA’s load factor is also under pressure with the reported number at 84% vs. 86% a year ago and yields are expected to remain flattish, on a tough comparable quarter. Additionally, we project OpEX to increase by 6.2% y-o-y affected by higher fleet maintenance costs towards the Ceo fleet, higher leasing needs and higher fuel consumption, driving EBITDA margin down by -610 bps y-o-y to 28.7%. Finaly, we expect net profit down by c. 22.9% y-o-y, to EUR 102.9m impacted by higher depreciation costs but financial expenses are expected to be lower y-o-y aided by FX gains due to US dollar strengthening.
OTE 3Q/9M24 results out tomorrow
OTE is set to report 3Q/9M24 results tomorrow, before the opening of ATHEX. We expect a weak quarter burdened by the poor performance and a one-off tax cost in Romania. Thus, we estimate group revenues to come in at EUR 906.6m (+2.7% y-o-y) in 3Q24, EBITDA AL at EUR 355.4m (+0.3% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 139.4m (-8.2% y-o-y). Management will host a CC on the same day at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.
METLEN partners with Cero Generation in 3 grand PV projects of a total 160 MWp in Spain
METLEN Energy & Metals has been awarded three solar PV projects in Spain totaling 160 MWp for Cero Generation in the municipality of Palencia in Castille-Leon. The scope includes the integrated development and construction of medium-voltage underground lines connecting each switching station with the existing substation, with a length of approximately 18 km and performance of two years of operation and maintenance (O&M) services.
Attica Bank new shares commence trading today
The new 359,469,360 shares from the share capital increase will start trading today. Moreover, Attica Bank announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with an entity advised by Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP for the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes of two securitisations backed by two portfolios of non-performing exposures (“NPEs”) with a total gross book value of c.€3.7 bn. Attica Bank will retain 100% of the senior notes, utilizing the provisions of the Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme, and 5% of the mezzanine and junior notes. The total proceeds for Attica Bank reflect the senior notes and the consideration for the mezzanine and junior notes, corresponding to c.35% of the total gross book value (EUR 1.29bn) of the Domus and Rhodium portfolios. Following the completion of the transaction, Attica Bank is expected to have an NPE ratio of less than 3%.
The market ended flattish, on a EUR 147.9m turnover, with banks sustaining momentum, rising 1%. Alpha Bank stood out, up 2.9%, Bank of Cyprus rose 2%, following solid 3Q24 results, while Piraeus finished 1.4% higher and NBG marked a 0.8% increase. Among top gainers, Fourlis rose 3.3%, Titan recorded 1.3% gains, whereas Jumbo ended flattish +0.4%. On red, Cenergy was down 1.7%, Lamda and Aegean lost 1.2%, PPA slipped 1%, followed by Metlen and PPC both marking a c.0.7% drop. Today focus on PPC and Lamda 3Q24 results after the market close.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus reported another solid set of 3Q24 results, well on track to beat our FY24 net profit of EUR 478m (implying a reported ROTE of >19%). The solid profitability and capital (CET1 ratio at 19.1%), implies strong distribution capacity ahead. The distribution yield on a 50% pay-out ratio is over 11%, on our numbers. The P/E ratio on 2025E stands at 5.2x, an excessive discount of 25-30% to European peers despite the superior capital, dividend potential and ROTE. Please see our flash note for more details. We remain BUYers.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG issued yesterday a green MREL eligible senior preferred bond of EUR 650m with a yield of 3.5% and 6-years duration. The offers reached c.EUR 4.0bn.
ATTICA BANK <TATT GA>
Attica Bank announced that it entered into a definite agreement with Davidson Kempner for the disposal of two portfolios of NPEs with a total gross book value of EUR 3.7bn. Following completion of the transaction the NPE ratio is expected to fall below 3.0%. On other news, the commencement of 359.5m new shares issued from the SCI is expected today.
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
Metlen announced it has undertaken the construction of three solar PV projects, of a total capacity of 160 MW in the Palencia, Spain for CERO Generation.
LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA, OW>
Lamda Development will report 3Q24 results today after the close. We expect a consolidated EBITDA before revaluations of EUR 29.7m (EUR 72.1m in the 9M24 period) driven by the strong performance of Lamda Malls (ex-Ellinikon) and the partial recognition of land plot sales in Ellinikon (resulting in a positive EBITDA in the quarter). Our key focus on the results will be on the cash proceeds YTD for Ellinikon and the progress on pre-sales for Little Athens.
The company will host a conference call tomorrow at 18:00 GR time (16:00 UK). Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632, FR +33 (0) 1 709 18711, DE +49 (0) 69 2222 4493, IT +39 06 452 36748.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC is due to release its 3Q24 results today after the market close. Management will host a conference call, including a presentation of its updated strategic plan for the period of 2025-2027 tomorrow at 14:00 GR (13:00 CET). Dial ins GR +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.
Market comment // The Greek market managed to reverse morning losses of up to -0.45% nudging +0.18% higher on Tuesday, standing out in a languid day for EU bourses (Stoxx 600 -2%). Trading activity increased to €148m (a bit above the 100d MA of €120m) of which more than 64% represented trading in financials. Banks (+1.04%) extended gains into an 8th consecutive session, led by Alpha (+2.92%), BoC (+2.03%) and Piraeus (+1.45%), with milder gains in NBG (+0.8%), a flat performance for Optima and marginal losses for Eurobank. Among non-financials, Thrace Plastics (+5.26%) and Fourlis (+3.37%) stood out, followed by a >1% rise in Kri Kri, Papoutsanis, Viohalco, Motodynamiki, Titan, AIA and IDEAL. On the flipside, Intralot, Autohellas, Cenergy, Profile, Lamda, Aegean and CCH all dropped more than 1%. Today EU markets look poised for a negative opening reflecting investor unease over the impact of Trump policies on global growth and inflation.
PPC // Scheduled to release its Q3’24 results today after the end of the trading session. In a period marked by high volatility in the electricity market, we expect PPC to report another quarter of strong profitability, estimating Q3’24 recurring EBITDA at €418mn (+20% yoy) driven by robust performance across both its integrated business and distribution. This will filter through to Q3’24e adjusted net income of €33mn, bringing the 9m’24e figure to €212mn.
Lamda // Lamda is scheduled to release 9M’24 results today after market. We forecast 9M’24 adj. EBITDA pre-revaluations at €78m, more than double yoy, boosted by positive Ellinikon EBITDA and continuing growth in Lamda Malls and Marinas. However significant net financial costs and taxes are still weighing on our bottom line forecast (net losses of €9.6m in 9M’24e vs €6m net losses in 9M’23). As such, implied Q3’24e adj. EBITDA for the group will come in near €36m on our numbers (higher vs €8.3m in Q3’23) aided by the positive Ellinikon EBITDA, resulting to Q3’24e group net profit of €9m (vs c€25m net losses a year ago).
Bank Of Cyprus // Bank of Cyprus posted a strong Q3’24, with Adjusted Net profit at €131mn (above cons of €122mn), down by 5% qoq, leading to a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 21.6% for Q3 and 22.9% for 9M’24, significantly above the FY’24 target of 19.0%, mainly on higher-than-expected NIM, currently standing at c3.6% for 9M’24. Including 3Q2024 profits net of 50% distribution accrual, CET1 ratio and CAD increased to 19.1% and 24.3% respectively.
OTE // Q3 results tomorrow pre market open. OTE’s Q3 results look set to mirror those of Q2, albeit with more tepid top line growth due to tough low-margin revenue comps. Overall, we model 3.2% revenue growth (+4.2% growth in Greece) filtering through to adj. EBITDAaL of €354m in the quarter, namely just 0.4% yoy, as cemented 1.5% EBITDAaL growth in Greece will be offset by ongoing Romania weakness. The aforementioned operating results will feed into reported net profit of €154m, +2.5% yoy by our math, due to lower financial expenses.
HelleniQ Energy // Set to release Q3’24 results tomorrow, after market close. Based on our estimate of a realized refining margin of $9.5/bbl (vs. $20.5/bbl in Q3’23), we project Q3’24 revenue at €3.11bn (-9% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €163mn (-59% yoy). Accounting for inventory losses of €41mn (compared to gains of €105mn in Q3’23) and the €173mn one-off solidarity tax contribution (based on FY’23 profits), we expect HelleniQ Energy to report a Q3’24 net loss of €166mn.
Aegean Airlines // Aegean is scheduled to release Q3’24 results tomorrow, after-market. We forecast a c4% drop in Q3 revenues (€628m), led by a 2% yoy drop in Q3 passengers (or flat ex Animawings) and a c1% assumed drop in average fares. We see Q3 EBITDA shaping at €181m, -17% yoy, and net profit at €103m, -23% yoy, thus pointing to 9M EBITDA of €329m (-11% yoy) and net profit of €126m (-26% yoy). Performance will be affected by the challenging comparison to a peak Q3 period in 2023 and the grounding of part of Aegean’s new fleet due to GTF engine issues.
NBG // NBG successfully issued a 6-year €650mn senior preferred bond, callable after five years, with the yield shaping at 3.5% and the issue being >6x oversubscribed. The final yield reflects a spread of 130bps over the corresponding mid-swap rate, marking the tightest spread achieved for a Greek senior preferred issuance.
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