Έπεσαν οι υπογραφές µε ΓΕΚ Τέρνα για τη νέα σύµβαση της Αττικής Οδού. Η νέα σύµβαση είναι ύψους 3,27 δισ. ευρώ ενώ ο παραχωρησιούχος θα αναλάβει για 25 χρόνια την εκµετάλλευση της Αττικής Οδού. Μειώνονται τα διόδια στα 2,5 ευρώ. ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Αυξηµένη κατά 11,4% η διακίνηση επιβατών στα ελληνικά λιµάνια το πρώτο τρίµηνο.
ΓΕΒΚΑ: Ο κύκλος εργασιών υποχώρησε από τα 27,24 στα 19,4 εκατ. ευρώ. Το EBITDA µειώθηκε από τα 3,688 στο 1,653 εκατ. ευρώ. Τα καθαρά κέρδη περιορίστηκαν από τα 2,71 στο 1,17 εκατ. ευρώ.
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a 5th consecutive session, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.47% at 1,406.91 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.46%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.10%, Banks Index: -0.79%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 129.8m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 85.0m. We expect ATHEX to move higher today, after five sessions in a row with losses.
Macro Headlines
Moody’s Sovereign review on Greece out today amc
Moody’s is set to release the sovereign review on Greece today after the market close. As a reminder, Moody’s assigns a Ba1 credit rating on Greece with stable outlook.
Sector Headlines
ECB cut deposit facility rate by 25bps, in line with expectations
The Governing Council of ECB lowered yesterday the deposit facility rate by 25bps to 3.50%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations narrowed to 3.65% (spread vs. DFR set at 15bps) and on the marginal lending facility to 3.90% (spread vs. main refinancing operations set at 25bps). The changes will take effect from 18 September 2024. The interest rate cut has a small negative impact on 2024 NII due to the timing and we have taken it into account in our estimates. We assess that the annual negative impact on NII for Greek banks of a 25bps interest rate cut, amounts to EUR 40m on average, assuming static balance sheets. The news is expected and neutral. We remain positive on Greek banks, as valuations have become more attractive due to their recent weakness. The sector is trading 0.78x P/TBV24e at a material 31% discount to EU banks and despite their higher RoTE24e (16.3% vs 13.7% of EU banks).
International passenger traffic up in August (Fraport Greece)
According to Fraport Greece (operator of the 14 regional Greek airports), international passenger traffic in Greek airports in August 2024 rose by 3.2% y-o-y, while in 8M24, international passenger traffic increased by 6.2% y-o-y to 19,202k travelers.
Company Headlines
HFSF to convene on Tuesday 17 September-Press
Reportedly (newmoney), HFSF will convene on Tuesday 17 September to discuss with the financial advisor about the disposal of its stake in National Bank of Greece.
Ellaktor 1H24 results out
Ellaktor announced 1H24 comparable revenues of EUR 144.7m (up by +6% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 88.9m (+1% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 40.4m, vs. EUR 28.7m in 1H23. Cash flows from continued operations stood at EUR 65m in 1H24, with Net Cash standing at EUR 458m as of June 30, 2024, up by EUR 156m y-t-d, with total cash position standing at EUR 644m. Regarding outlook, the concessions segment is expected to generate EUR 1.0bn in total dividend inflows throughout the respective contractual terms, and is targeting participation in PPP and Concession projects with a combined value of approximately EUR 6bn, either independently or through joint ventures. Finally, in the Real Estate sector, the maturing of existing projects gains traction, while explores new opportunities in the hospitality sector.
Lamda Development 1H24 results out
LAMDA Development announced 1H24 retail (Malls) EBITDA (excluding revaluation gains) of EUR 44 (+8% y-o-y), EBITDA from the Ellinikon project of EUR 6.9m (from negative EBITDA of EUR 8.4m a year ago, EBITDA from Marinas at EUR 9.8m (from EUR 9m a year ago) and net losses (i.e. including the expenses related to the development of The Ellinikon and revaluation results) of EUR 18.7m vs. profits of EUR 18.4m a year ago. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Group amounted to EUR 1,398m as of 30 June 2024 (EUR 7.94/share, implying a 13.1% discount to yesterday’s closing price) compared to EUR 1,392m or EUR 8.02/share as at 31 December 2023. Finally, total cash proceeds from property sales/leases in the Ellinikon reached EUR 715m, EUR 300m of which collected in 8M24, and according to the company are expected to exceed EUR 900m by 2024-end. The management will hold a conference call today at 16.00 local time.
Aegean Airlines will offer an increased flight schedule in 4Q24
According to euro2day, the airline plans to extend the seasonality of the tourist season in 4Q24 with an increased flight schedule from the two main airports of the country. Aegean Airlines plans to offer 5% more seats vs. 4Q23 and from late October it will launch new flights to Abu Dhabi from Athens and Amsterdam from Thessaloniki.
GEKTERNA signs the new concession agreement for Attiki Odos
GEKTERNA signed yesterday as expected the new 25-year concession agreement for Attiki Odos for a total value of EUR 3.27bn.
Bank of Cyprus EGM today
The EGM of the bank will take place today at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve the delisting of the common shares from LSE and their listing on Athens Stock Exchange. According to the timetable, the listing of the shares on ATHEX will become effective on 23 September 2024, while the trading of the shares on LSE will be suspended on 18 September and the delisting will be effective on 19 September.
Alpha Trust Andromeda 1H24 results out
The company posted its results yesterday. Revenues came in at EUR 2.1m vs. EUR 7.8m in 1H23. EBT reached EUR 1.47m vs. EUR 6.8m last year and net profits reached EUR 1.19M vs. EUR 6.0m. The NAV of the group reached EUR 8.38m vs. EUR 8.49m last year.
Sunrise Mezz, Phoenix Vega Mezz coupon receipts
Sunrise Mezz plc announced that as of August 2024, no coupon payments were received for the preceding 3-month interest period. Phoenix Vega Mezz announced that as of August it has received coupon payments of EUR 2.36m, corresponding to the preceding 3-month interest period.
Kloukinas Lappas 1H24 Results out
KLM announced 1H24 Results, with sales at EUR 10m (vs. EUR 33.3m a year ago), Gross profit at EUR 7.2m (from EUR 30.5m in 1H23) and net profits of EUR 1.3m from losses of EUR 0.8m a year ago.
The benchmark index finished on the red for the fifth consecutive day, down -0.4%, on a EUR 129.7m turnover. The banking sector also marked a -c0.8% drop, driven by NBG’s losses of -2.4% and Eurobank down -0.6% , while Piraeus rose modestly at 0.4%. Among top performers, Fourlis stood out up c1.2%, with Jumbo, OTE, PPA and OPAP flattish on the day (+c0.3%). On red, PPC and Aegean slipped -2.6% and -2.4% respectively and Titan recorded a decrease of -1.5%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
Moody’s credit rating review expected today after the market close. Moody’s is currently the only major credit rating agency to maintain Greece outside the investment grade status, at Ba1, with a stable outlook.
LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA, OW>
Lamda Development reported 1H24 consolidated EBITDA (before revaluations) of 42.4m (+57% yoy). Retail EBITDA grew by a solid 8% yoy to EUR 43.6m (EUR 39.2m post Ellinikon Malls), with EBITDA from Marinas at EUR 9.8m (+9% yoy) and EBITDA from the Ellinikon project at EUR 6.9m (from losses in of EUR 8.4m in 1H23). On a net profit level, Lamda Development posted a loss of EUR 18.7m on the back of non-cash accounting recognition related to Ellinikon. On a cash basis, progress on the Ellinikon project remained ahead of targets with cumulative cash proceeds of EUR 0.96m until end of August (vs. EUR 86m by end May) and a target of EUR 1.1bn up to end 2024E. On residential and the Little Athens project, Lamda has signed 318 reservations & SPAs (out of the 440 placed in the market), indicating solid progress in the more ‘upper mainstream’ apartments.
GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
GEK Terna signed yesterday the 25-year EUR 3.27bn concession contract for Attica Motorway. Following the signing of the agreement there will be a transition period for the closing of the transaction with the full consolidation likely in 1Q24.
NOVAL PROPERTY <NOVAL GA>
The company announced that the publication of its 1H24 results is scheduled for September 17th after the market close. Management will host a conference call the following day, September 18th at 15:00 GR time (13:00 UK, 8:00 NY).
AEGEAN AIRLINES <AEGN GA, OW>
In the post results conference call, the management stated that 3Q24 levels are close to the 3Q23 levels. Competition is there and pricing is slightly lower. Aegean will offer 6-7% more seats, which is similar to competition. Regarding hedging, the company has covered c.70% of the needs of 2024 and c.41% for 2025 at levels c.24% higher than current forward levels. On FX, they have hedged 53% of USD needs for 2024 and 32% for 2025 at roughly current levels.
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.
Market Comment // The Greek market struggled to benefit from the recovery across EU bourses on Thursday, closing at 1,406.9 points (-0.47%) to extend its losing streak to 4 sessions. Turnover jumped to €130m by the close (vs. the 100-day MA of €119m) with Banks responsible for nearly 2/3 of trade value. PPC (-2.62%), NBG (-2.49%) and Aegean Airlines (-2.45%) set the tone for laggards, followed by Real Consulting, Kri-Kri, Titan Cement, Autohellas, Intralot and Thrace Plastics (on >1% losses). On the other hand, Quest Holdings (+2.72%), Fourlis (+1.18%) and Premia Properties (+1.12%) were among the few notable names on gains. The market looks headed for a positive opening today, in broad sync with EU futures, buoyed by recovering sentiment and potential for repositioning following the recent negative streak.
Economy // Moody’s set to provide its rating review on Greece this evening. The agency is the only one placing Greece one notch below investment grade (at Ba1) while attaching a stable outlook.
Lamda // Lamda reported H1 adjusted EBITDA at €42.4m, +57% yoy and in broad sync with our forecast (€43m). This points to a drop in Q2 EBITDA to €7.1m vs €18.7m in Q2’23, due to losses in Ellinikon and higher overheads, which partially offset the solid Lamda Malls & Marina’s performances. H1’24 net losses came in at €18.7m compared to net profit of €18.4m a year ago. NAV increased just marginally to €1,398m vs the respective FY23 figure (€1,392m).
Ellaktor // The Group released its half-year results, reporting H1’24 revenue from cont. operations of €144.7mn (+6% yoy), with the respective EBITDA settling 1% higher yoy at €88.9mn. Net income from cont. operations settled at €40.4mn, namely 41% higher yoy, on the back of lower interest expenses, as net cash as of June 2024 stood at €104mn vs €55mn Net Debt in Dec 2023.
Aegean Airlines // At the conference call following the Q2 print, mgt echoed a confident message underpinned by strong demand and flattish capacity growth in the seasonally important Q3, despite rising competition, while stressing it sustains healthy average fare levels. Mgt also highlighted the strong financial position despite investments, dividend and warrant payments. We remain positive on the stock, noting that both consensus and our estimates for 2024 point to a c1% rise in the H2’24e top line and a c10% drop in the bottom line, which looks more than feasible.
GEK Terna // The Group announced that it signed yesterday the concession agreement for “Attiki Odos” motorway. The consideration stands at €3.27bn and the concession will remain in place for 25 years. The signing will be followed by the ratification of the Concession Agreement by the Parliament, the financial closing of the transaction, and the fulfilling of all contractual conditions for handover.
Kri-Kri // Kri-Kri is scheduled to release its H1’24 results on Monday premarket open. In a seasonally strong quarter, we expect revenues to increase c13% yoy (€75.2m for Q2, +12.1% yoy), supported by strong contributions from the ice cream segment and sustained yogurt volume growth in international markets, more than offsetting price/mix challenges. We anticipate EBIT of €25m, down just <€1.5m yoy. We expect Q2 results to catalyze earnings upgrades, given the conservative numbers embedded in market expectations.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
