ATHEX headed north yesterday, setting a new 14-year-hish, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 2.58% at 1,666.21 units (FTSE Large Cap: +2.94%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.70% Banks Index: +4.22%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 258.5m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 213.1m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, following yesterday’s jump.
HEADLINES
Macro Headlines
PDMA offers the switch of existing notes maturing in 2026 with new with longer maturity
Greece announced that it intends to offer new, 4.375% notes due 2038 and new 4.125% notes due 2054, in exchange of the existing 0.0% notes maturing February 2026, at a purchase price 98.17% and the also existing notes 1.875% notes maturing in July 2026 at a 99.77% purchase price. The transaction is expected to be completed on 13 March.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Bank acquires 90.01% of Ethniki Insurance
CP: EUR 4.9510, Rating: Buy, TP: EUR 6.20
Optima View:The acquisition of Ethniki Insurance is positive for Piraeus as it is a) EPS accretive, b) strengthens further its revenue base via higher fee and trading income (bond portfolio of EUR 2.24bn), whilst the positive medium-term impact will derive from cost synergies. Following the guidance upgrade, we’ll also upgrade our estimates and TP. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector.
Event/Valuation:Piraeus Financial Holdings announced that its 100% subsidiary Piraeus Bank has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire 90.01% stake in Ethniki Insurance from CVC Capital Partners Fund VII for a cash consideration for EUR 600.0m, on a 100% basis (EUR ca540.1m for 90.01%), implying a P/TBV23 of 1.4x and 10% lower than the previous consideration of EUR 670.0m for 100% (EUR 469.0m for 70%) announced on 06 February 2025. Recall that National Bank of Greece controls the remaining 9.99% stake in Ethniki Insurance.
Impact:The Transaction is EPS accretive for Piraeus by circa 5% and RoaTBV by ca 1pp and it elevates fee generation to international best-in-class levels. Based on the above, and including a 50% distribution payout out of 2025 results and onwards per annum, Piraeus’ proforma total capital position is estimated at ca18.5% for 2025, anticipated to reach ca19.5% by 2027 and ca 20.0% by 2028. This impact translates into a capital ratio with a comfortable Pillar 2 Guidance buffer of ca 250bps in 2025, evolving to above 300bps by 2027 and close to 400bps by 2028. Throughout the period, Piraeus’ CET1 ratio is expected to sustain a level of 13% and higher.Piraeus intends to achieve a Financial Conglomerate (FICO) status and pursue the application of CRR article 49 (commonly referred to as Danish Compromise) in relation to the prudential treatment of its participation in the share capital of Ethniki Insurance, which, if attained, would expand further the CET1 ratio by ca50bps.
Ethniki Insurance:Ethniki Insurance is a leading composite insurer in Greece, covering the whole spectrum of insurance products with a ca 14.5% market share (circa 17% in life / circa 11% in nonlife) and more than EUR 0.8bn Gross Written Premiums in 2024. Ethniki Insurance had EUR 4.0bn total assets and EUR 0.4m shareholders’ equity in 2023 and reported a EBT adjusted for non-recurring items of approximately EUR 100.0m in 2023.
New guidance: Following the acquisition of Ethiniki Insurance, management upgraded 2026e-2028e guidance and now expects reported net profit to reach EUR ca1.13bn in 2026e and to accelerate by 11% y-o-y to EUR 1.25bn in 2027e and by 20% y-o-y to EUR 1.5bn in 2028e. RoaTBV is expected to widen to 14.0% in 26e, 14.5% in 27e and 15.0% in 28e.
Autohellas FY24 results out
The company posted a mixed set of results with revenues down by 1.7% y-o-y to EUR 985.7m with car rental segment showing a positive growth in all the countries where the Group operates, which however did not offset the negative performance of car trade in Greece (-8.7% y-o-y). EBITDA of the Group reached EUR 278.4 recording a 2.3% y-o-y increase, while net profit after tax reached a historic high to EUR 84.9m, up by 9.9% y-o-y (positively affected by the EUR 8m and EUR 1.6m dividend receipts from Aegean Airlines and Trade Estates respectively). It is noted that the activity of Italian Motion (FIAT/JEEP/Alfa Romeo) is not included in consolidated revenues and recorded sales of EUR 155.8m in FY24, enhancing the Group’s overall activity. Management stated that the BoD will propose a dividend distribution of EUR 0.85/share (DY:7.5%) in the upcoming AGM.
Sarantis FY24 results out
Sarantis posted a strong set of results with revenues up by 24.4% y-o-y to EUR 600.1m aided by organic growth and the contribution of Stella Pack. On the profitability front, EBITDA reached EUR 81.6m up by 32.5% y-o-y with improved EBITDA margin by 82bps to 13.6%. Net Profit of the group, grew to EUR 46.0m, higher by 17.1% y-o-y. Finally, net debt of the group reached EUR 8.5m vs. net cash of EUR 43.6m in FY23 attributed to the completion of acquisition of Stella Pack in January 2024. Management will propose to the AGM the dividend of EUR 0.299174/share increased by 33.3% y-o-y, with payout ratio at 43.5% vs. 38.2% in FY23. (DY:2.3%)
Ascertainment of listing requirements of FAIS GROUP S.A.
The Athens Stock Exchange ascertained that all listing requirements are met, regarding the listing of “FAIS GROUP S.A.” on the Main Market of the Athens Stock Exchange, on condition that adequate free float of the company’s shares will be achieved.
Aegean Airlines Financial Calendar 2025
Aegean Airlines announced that it will report FY24 results on Monday 17 March 2025, the conference call is scheduled for the next day and the AGM will be held on Tuesday 29 April 2025, while dividend ex-date set for Tuesday 20 May 2025.
Greek equities posted gains of c.2.6% yesterday, driven by banks’ strong momentum, with turnover standing at EUR 258m, of which EUR 13m correspond to the placement of AVAX. The banking index recorded a 4.2% rise, driven by Alpha Bank up c.6%, Eurobank gaining 4.6%, NBG rising 3.7% and Piraeus up c.3.4%. On non-financials, Titan outperformed rising 3.1%, closely followed by Lamda up 2.9%, Metlen and PPC both rose 2.8%, OPAP recorded 2.4% gains, while Motor Oil and Jumbo finished at +1.3%. Moreover, GEK Terna marked a 1.6% advance and OTE was up 1.3%, whereas Cenergy underperformed, slipping 0.9% on the day.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICS
Reportedly, a cabinet reshuffling could occur today. A significant shift is expected at the Finance Ministry, with potential candidates including Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Thodoros Skylakakis and Niki Kerameus. On Infrastructure, Thanos Plevris, is reportedly in the mix due to his handling of the Tempe train accident. Moreover, Kostis Hatzidakis is expected to take the role of Deputy Prime Minister.
MACRO
Reportedly, PDMA will proceed with the reissuance of a 15-year and 30-year bonds today.
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Piraeus Bank announced the acquisition of a 90% stake in Ethniki Insurance from CVC Capital Partners. The price paid for 100% of Ethniki Insurance stands at EUR 600m (vs. the earlier Feb announcement for a 70% stake at EUR 469m, implying EUR 670m for 100%). Management expects EPS to be accretive by c.5% with ROTE increasing by c.100bps. Together with the announcement Piraeus upgraded the guidance for 2026-28E. In 2028E ROTE is now seen at 15% post transaction vs. c.14% previously. In 2027E the ROTE is seen at 14.5% (from 13.5%). EPS is now targeted at c.EUR 0.9 in 2026E from c.EUR 0.8 previously with a similar rise in outer years. In terms of capital and including a 50% pay-out ratio assumption, the Total Capital Ratio reduces by c.150bps to >18.5% in 2026E vs. c.20% previously. Management expects TCR to reach c.20% by 2028E. The CET1 ratio will remain at 13% throughout the period. Danish compromise, if obtained, would improve CET1 by c.50bps.
SARANTIS <SAR GA, OW>
Sarantis reported solid set of FY24 numbers, broadly in line with guidance and our estimates. Revenues for the year came in at EUR 600m, up 24% yoy on the back of strategy execution, delivering an organic growth of 9% yoy (EUR 525m), with Stella pack full consolidation adding on top. On divisional breakdown, Beauty skin & suncare recorded a growth of 24% yoy, with homecare category growing a touch below 30% yoy (also partially reflecting Stella Pack contribution. Private label revenues grew 95% yoy, driven by Stella Pack consolidation. Gross profit margin stood at EUR 37.7%, broadly flat on yoy basis, with Gross profit at EUR 226m. EBITDA came in 32% higher yoy, to EUR 82m, with Stella Pack contributing EUR 10.9m. The company delivered Net profit of EUR 46m, up 17% yoy, with net profit margin at 7.7% form 8.2% in 2024. Net debt for the year stood at EUR 8m, in line with expectations, with net debt/EBITDA at 0.1x. FY24 dividend distribution proposal of EUR 0.299/share (gross) indicating a payout of 43%. In the released statement, the company reiterated its 2025 business outlook, calling for EUR 628m revenues (+4.7% yoy), with EBITDA at EUR 92m (+1.9% vs investor day 2024 guidance) and estimated CAPEX for the year at EUR 40m (+21%yoy). Management will host a conference call today at 16:00 GR time. Dial ins: GR +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.
AUTOHELLAS <OTOEL GA, OW>
Autohellas published its FY24 numbers yesterday, reporting revenues of EUR 985.7m, recording a 1.7% yoy decrease, affected by a slowdown in activity in the car trade segment. Car trade revenue in Greece declined 8.7% yoy to EUR 511.2m, due to increased competition and stagnation of the overall market compared to 2023, when the order portfolio accumulated in 2021-2022 was exhausted. Both Greek and international car rental segments posted solid growth of 8.1% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively, reaching EUR 290.2m and EUR 184.2m. Group EBITDA increased 2.3% yoy to EUR 278.4m, above our estimates of EUR 272.5m and PBT came in at EUR 105.4 (-0.7% yoy) compared to EUR 99m on our numbers. Net profit after minorities for the period amounted to EUR 84.9m, recording a 9.9% yoy growth, compared to a 4% yoy decrease on our forecasts (aided by the dividends from Aegean and Trade Estates). The proposed DPS stands at EUR 0.85/share, above our estimates (EUR 0.68).
Market Comment // Taking cues from risk-on momentum across EU exchanges, the ASE General index surged to 1.666 points (+2.58%) on Wednesday, closing at its intraday high. Trade activity jumped to €258m, staying near recent levels and above the 100-day MA of €163m. Alpha Bank (+5.98%), Autohellas (+5.52%) and Eurobank (+4.64%) outperformed among gainers, followed by NBG, Piraeus Bank, ATHEX, Viohalco, Titan Cement, and Kri Kri (on >3% gains), while Lamda, PPC, Sarantis, Metlen, Aegean Airlines, IDEAL Holdings, OPAP, Bank of Cyprus, Dimand, and PPA all recorded gains >2%. On the flipside, Real Consulting (-2.00%) and Cenergy (-0.96%) were among the few notable laggards. Global futures suggest a modestly negative opening today, as investors weigh encouraging US inflation data against the tariff backdrop and its read through for the economy.
Piraeus Bank // Piraeus Bank announced that it has signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with CVC for the potential acquisition of a 90.1% stake in Ethniki Insurance for €540mn, implying a total valuation of €600mn. This is below the initial pricing of €670mn when discussions began. Throughout the period, Piraeus’ CET1 ratio is expected to remain above 13%. The deal is expected to be EPS-accretive by c5%. Additionally, it enhances revenue diversification, with non-interest income (non-NII) currently contributing c24% of total revenues, with a target of c28%. Following the announcement, Piraeus Bank upgraded its Business Plan (BP), now guiding for RoTBV of 14% in 2026, rising to 15% by 2028, with EPS expected at €0.9 and €1.2, respectively.
Sarantis // Sarantis reported FY’24 results in line with guidance with EBIT shaping at €61m, +30% yoy, on sales of €600m, +24% yoy, posting an improvement in the EBIT margin of 40bps yoy (10.2%). Sarantis is proposing a higher DPS of €0.30, 2.3% div yield (vs EEe for €0.27). Mgt also raised FY’25 EBIT guidance by 3.6%, now expecting EBIT of €70m (vs €68m previously), indicating +15% yoy growth, on +5% yoy sales growth, with the 2025 sales forecast unchanged at €628m.
Economy // Moody’s to provide its rating update on Greece tomorrow. As a reminder, the agency is the only one still placing Greece below investment grade (Ba1, positive outlook). As such an upgrade looks very likely, but with no significant readthrough for the equity market.
Autohellas // Autohellas released solid FY’24 results, with revenues dropping 2% yoy to €986m, dragged by the Autotrade business, but net profit growing 10% yoy to €85m, above our forecast aided by one-off items and lower taxes. Autohellas proposed the distribution of a higher DPS of €0.85, +20% yoy (vs EEe for €0.70), indicating a c7.6% div. yield.
ADMIE Holding // Today, a trilateral meeting between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel will take place to address the stalled Great Sea Interconnector project, following the recent suspension of payments to Nexans due to geopolitical uncertainties.
Economy // Greece is returning to the markets with a re-opening of its 15-year and 30-year bonds, maturing in 2038 and 2054, respectively. Pricing is expected today as per press reports, with settlement on March 20, market conditions permitting.
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