*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
εισροές ύψους €416,56 εκατ. κατά το μήνα Οκτώβριο. Επίσης, οι Αλλοδαποί Δικαιούχοι
Μερίδων πραγματοποίησαν το 65,7% των συνολικών συναλλαγών (αγορές & πωλήσεις) τον
Οκτώβριο 2024 (σε σχέση με το 60,1% τον προηγούμενο μήνα).Με τιμή-στόχο στα 31 ευρώ, 57% υψηλότερα από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα στο ταμπλό, ξεκινά
κάλυψη για τη μετοχή της Motor Oil η Εθνική Χρηματιστηριακή, θέτοντας σύσταση
outperform.
Orilina Properties: Με ποσοστό 5,42% η St James Place.
Yalco: Πράσινο φως από τη ΓΣ στην απόσχιση του κλάδου εμπορίας. Προχωρά η σύσταση
νέας ανώνυμης εταιρίας για τον κλάδο εμπορίας υαλικών και ειδών οικιακής και
επαγγελματικής χρήσης.
Optima Bank: τα καθαρά κέρδη της τράπεζας ανήλθαν στα €108,2 εκατ., σημειώνοντας
αύξηση 50% σε σχέση με το αντίστοιχο 9μηνο του προηγούμενου έτους, ενώ ήδη
υπερβαίνουν τα συνολικά κέρδη του 2023 (€103 εκατ.). Η απόδοση των ενσώματων ιδίων
κεφαλαίων (Return on Tangible Equity – RoTE) διαμορφώθηκε στο 26,8%. Tα δανειακά της
υπόλοιπα αυξήθηκαν κατά €1,1 δισ. αγγίζοντας τα €3,3 δισ., που ισοδυναμεί με ποσοστιαία
αύξηση 48% σε σύγκριση με το προηγούμενο έτος. Οι καταθέσεις ανήλθαν στα €4,1 δισ.,
καταγράφοντας αύξηση 32% σε ετήσια βάση. Ο δείκτης κεφαλαιακής επάρκειας ανήλθε στα
15,7%, στο 0,92% τα NPEs. Δημήτρης Κυπαρίσης: η τράπεζα θα διανείμει το 30% των
κερδών του 2024 στους μετόχους της. Τρέχει με P/E 7 με την παραδοχή ετήσιων κερδών
€140 εκ. και P/BV 1,6 (τρέχουσα κεφαλαιοποίηση €947 εκ., ΙΚ €588 εκ.
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 2nd session in a row, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.08% at 1,428.40 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.12%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.06%, Banks Index: +1.00%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 124.9m, down from Friday’s EUR 137.3m. We expect ATHEX to follow the international markets, with Alpha Bank in focus today.
Market Headlines
Foreign investors had inflows in October
According to Athens Stock Exchange, foreign investors had inflows of EUR ca416.6m in October vs. outflows of EUR 62.6m in September and accounted for 65.7% of total transactions’ value against 60.0% in September.
Company Headlines
Optima Bank Conference call highlights
Management stated in the CC that the FY net profit target of >EUR 134m will be comfortably surpassed and the bank will distribute 30% of net profit in 2024. 4Q24 NCE will continue to be strong, as there is a strong pipeline in corporate loans, whilst Optima participated in the Attiki Odos syndicated loan. Finally, management expects that net interest income will potentially go further up due to the strong growth of net credit expansion which more than offsets interest rate cuts. Recall that Optima Bank delivered a robust set of 3Q24 results that beat consensus estimates. Net profit came in at EUR 39.2m in 3Q24 (+8% q-o-q, +40% y-o-y), 3% above consensus estimate of EUR 38.1m and at a new record of EUR 108.2m (+50% y-o-y) in 9M24, higher than 2023 net profit of EUR 103.0m. RoTE was shaped at 26.8% in 9M24, the highest among Greek banks and one of the highest in Europe.
Reggeborgh Invest increased its stake in Alpha Services and Holdings-Press
Reportedly (Mononews), Reggeborgh Invest has increased its stake in Alpha Services and Holdings to 9.99% and has submitted a fit and proper approval by the ECB to increase it above 10.0%. According to the official data of ATHEX, Reggeborgh Invest controls a 5.158% stake.
Bank of Cyprus 3Q/9M24 results out today
Bank of Cyprus is set to report 3Q/9M24 today before the opening of ATHEX.
Gigabit Voucher to be activated until Friday-Press
Press reports (powergame) indicate that the Minister of Digital Governance announced that the Gigabit Voucher (FTTH) with a total budget of EUR 80.0m will be activated by Friday. The news is positive on OTE, as it will increase further the demand for FTTH services.
Real Consulting Share Buyback
The company announced that it commences its share buyback program of up to 2.150.000 own shares until 07.07.2026. The maximum price is set at ERUR 5.00/share and the minimum at EUR 1.02.
The ASE Index started the week with 1% gains, marking a steady upward movement throughout the trading session, while turnover stood at EUR 124.7m. The banking index also marked a 1% increase, with Alpha Bank standing out +4.7% and Bank of Cyprus rising 2.5%. Moreover, Cenergy outperformed up 2.4%, Metlen and PPA both finished c.2% higher, Motor Oil rose 1%, while Jumbo and PPC recorded 0.7% gains. On red, Sarantis recorded the biggest decrease, down 2.5%, whereas GEK Terna and Fourlis finished around the flatline. Today, focus on Bank of Cyprus 3Q24 results bmo.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus reported 3Q24 net profit of EUR 131m, ahead of our forecast (EUR 125m), on a better NII (EUR 204m vs. EUR 201m estimate). All other lines largely in line with our estimates. August targets re-iterated (NII of c.EUR 800m, >19% ROTE) with management targeting a payout ratio of 50% (implying a yield of >11%, on our numbers). The management is due to host a conference call today at 12:00 Greek time.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
According to press reports, Reggeborgh Invest has increased its stake in Alpha Bank to slightly below 10% and has requested from the SSM approval to exceed the 10% level.
According to ATHEX filings the current stake of Reggeborgh Invest in Alpha Bank stands at 5.16%. We remind that Reggeborgh Invest represents the interests of Henry Holterman, with active presence in the local market via Ellaktor (stake of 48%). Reggeborgh Invest was also a cornerstone investor in Optima Bank (EUR 21m participation in the IPO).
OPTIMA < OPTIMA GA>
Key highlights from the post results conference call: 1/ the management will target a pay-out ratio of 30% out of the 2024 net profits (which would imply a dividend yield of c.5%); 2/ over 90% of the loan book is floating linked to the Euribor; 3/ the decline in Euribor will be more than offset by the strong growth in the loan book; 3/ Optima participated in the Attica Motorway syndication and the bank will participate in more large projects ahead; 4/ the bank is targeting to establish a subsidiary in leasing by year end to expand the product offering; 5/ management has a target to retain the NPE ratio below 1%; 6/ the bank is well on track to exceed the FY24 guidance for net profit of >EUR 134m with a ROTE of >24%.
AUSTRIACARD <ACAG GA, OW>
Austriacard is due to report its 3Q24 results on Thursday, November 14th, after the market close. We expect a strong 9M24 performance, driven by a robust third quarter, offsetting the weaker 1Q24 activity, with solid growth among all three segments and key geographies. Specifically, on a nine-month basis we anticipate Austriacard’s revenues to reach EUR 300m, up 15% yoy, mainly driven by the restored growth in Western Europe, as well as the ongoing expansion in the MEA market, both growing at double-digit paces. Broken down by segment, we expect accelerated growth in Digital transformation technologies turnover, around EUR 23m (+177% yoy), supported by the ongoing implementation of RRF projects in Greece, as well as a rebound on the Secure chip solutions category, with revenues of EUR 184m, rising 8% yoy. Moreover, for Document lifecycle management we assume revenues growing 13% yoy, amounting to EUR 90m, boosted by security printing projects in MEA. On our numbers, Group’s a-EBITDA for the period stand at EUR 41.5m, a solid 13% yoy growth, on track to meet our estimates of EUR 56m a-EBITDA for FY24. We estimate PBT at EUR 20.2m, gaining 11% yoy, despite the drag of higher financing costs for 3Q24 in our model, in order to meet our financing expenses forecasts for FY24, while in our view net profits will amount to EUR 15.3m, up 5% yoy.
We retain our view that Austriacard is one of the most interesting small caps in our universe. The growth outlook remains solid (10-15% per annum), while the stock’s poor performance YTD (-15.5%) implies a very appealing valuation, with an EV/EBITDA of 4.7x and 8.1x P/E on our 2025E numbers.
AKTOR GROUP <INKAT GA, OW>
According to press reports, AKTOR signed a EUR 17.8m contract for the supply, installation and operation of 388 surveillance cameras in the roads of Attica region.
FOURLIS GROUP <FOYRK GA>
Fourlis announced the addition of a new Plaisio store in the Athens International Airport park.
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
Helleniq Energy will host a conference call for 3Q24 results on Thursday, November 14th at 18:00 GR time (17:00 CET). Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000, FR +33 (0) 170 918 711, DE +49 (0) 69 2222 4493, IT +39 02 3046 4869, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 0595872, US +1 516 447 5632.
LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA, OW>
Lamda Development will host a conference call for 3Q24 results on Thursday, November 14th at 18:00 GR time (16:00 UK). Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632, FR +33 (0) 1 709 18711, DE +49 (0) 69 2222 4493, IT +39 06 452 36748.
Market Comment // In another positive session on Monday Greek stocks gained 1.08% propelled by risk-on momentum across international markets, with the benchmark index closing at its intraday high of 1,428.4 points. Trading activity dropped somewhat to c€125m, remaining though above the 100d MA (€120m), with banks representing c62% of the total transaction value. Alpha bank (+4.76%) outshined once again, followed by Thrace Plastics (+3.1%) and BoC, Cenergy, ADMIE, Profile, Viohalco, OLP and CCH (all up >2%). On the negative side, Premia (-3.05%) and Sarantis (-2.52%) led laggards. Today EU futures look headed for a negative opening on profit taking following recent gains as investors rethink the read-through from the change in the US administration.
PPC // Scheduled to release its Q3’24 results tomorrow after the end of the trading session. In a period marked by high volatility in the electricity market, we expect PPC to report another quarter of strong profitability, estimating Q3’24 recurring EBITDA at €418mn (+20% yoy) driven by robust performance across both its integrated business and distribution. This will filter through to Q3’24e adjusted net income of €33mn, bringing the 9m’24e figure to €212mn.
HelleniQ Energy // According press, HRADF is accelerating the process for the acquisition of HelleniQ Energy’s 35% stake in DEPA, with the goal of completing the transaction by year-end, at a reported consideration of €200mn. Due to HRADF’s statutory limitations, which allow only for asset sales or leases, a legislative amendment is required to proceed with the purchase. Alternatively, HCAP may serve as the designated buyer.
OTE // Q3 results on 14th November pre market open. OTE’s Q3 results look set to mirror those of Q2, albeit with more tepid top line growth due to tough low-margin revenue comps. Overall, we model 3.2% revenue growth (+4.2% growth in Greece) filtering through to adj. EBITDAaL of €354m in the quarter, namely just 0.4% yoy, as cemented 1.5% EBITDAaL growth in Greece will be offset by ongoing Romania weakness. The aforementioned operating results will feed into reported net profit of €154m, +2.5% yoy by our math, due to lower financial expenses.
Alpha Bank // According press Henry Holterman, Chairman of Reggeborgh, aims to significantly increase his stake in Alpha Bank – currently at 9.9% – to well above 10% (possibly to 15% or even 20%). For this purpose, he reportedly submitted a request to the Bank of Greece and the SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism) in September to obtain fit & proper approval.
Lamda // Lamda is scheduled to release 9M’24 results tomorrow after market. We forecast 9M’24 adj. EBITDA pre-revaluations at €78m, more than double yoy, boosted by positive Ellinikon EBITDA and continuing growth in Lamda Malls and Marinas. However significant net financial costs and taxes are still weighing on our bottom line forecast (net losses of €9.6m in 9M’24e vs €6m net losses in 9M’23). As such, implied Q3’24e adj. EBITDA for the group will come in near €36m on our numbers (higher vs €8.3m in Q3’23) aided by the positive Ellinikon EBITDA, resulting to Q3’24e group net profit of €9m (vs c€25m net losses a year ago).
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