ΟΠΑΠ χωρίς να ληφθεί υπόψη η απόδοση που προέρχεται από την επαναγορά µετοχών ύψους 150 εκατ. ευρώ, µε περίπου 50 εκατ. ευρώ να αποµένουν το 2024. ∆ιατηρεί αµετάβλητη την τιµή στόχο του στα 20 ευρώ και τη σύσταση της υπεραπόδοσης έναντι της αγοράς, µε το περιθώριο ανόδου να ξεπερνά το 30% από την τρέχουσα τιµή των 15,36 ευρώ ανά µετοχή.
Αξιολόγηση Ελληνικού ∆ηµοσίου δίνει στη Eurobank η DBRS, βαθµίδα BBB (low) στην µακροπρόθεσµη αξιολόγηση εκδότη και σε R-2 (middle) σε ότι αφορά τη βραχυπρόθεσµη. Πρώτη αξιολόγηση από τον καναδικό οίκο για τον ελληνικό τραπεζικό όµιλο. Η ικανότητα δηµιουργίας επαναλαµβανόµενων κερδών και θετικές προοπτικές από την εξαγορά της «Ελληνικής Τράπεζας».
* Greek banks: credit expansion reportedly picks up in Q2
* Piraeus Bank’s (TPEIR GA) MREL ratio now stands at 28.0%, comfortably meeting the final binding MREL target, a year ahead of the deadline
* Ideal (INTEK GA) chairman Lampros Papakonstantinou assumes the role of executive BoD member from non-executive previously
* June Greek (Fraport run) regional airports pax traffic grew 6% y-o-y to 5.3m, rising 8% to 12.7m in H1 (16% stronger vs 2019)
ATHEX posted marginal gains yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.11% at 1,445.91 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.01%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.17% Banks Index: +0.63%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 85.4m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 88.7m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets today.
Macro Headlines
Scope Ratings to release its sovereign credit review on Greece today amc
Scope ratings is set to release the sovereign credit rating on Greece today, after the market close. As a reminder, last January, Scope Rating affirmed the BBB- rating on Greece with stable outlook.
Sector Headlines
International passenger traffic up in June (Fraport Greece)
According to Fraport Greece (operator of the 14 regional Greek airports), international passenger traffic in Greek airports in June 2024 rose by 5.9% y-o-y, while in 1H24, international passenger traffic increased by 7.8% y-o-y to 9,263k travelers.
Company Headlines
DBRS upgraded Eurobank to investment grade
DBRS Ratings assigned first-time public credit ratings to Eurobank, including a Long-Term Issuer Rating of BBB (low) and a Short-Term Issuer Rating of R-2 (middle). The bank’s Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating is BBB (high) and the trend on all credit ratings is Stable. The news is positive. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.41/share.
Aegean Airlines Passenger Traffic 1H24
Aegean Airlines announced that offered ASKs up by 11% in 1H24, (in 1Q24 ASKs were up by 12.3%), while passenger traffic was up by 9% in 1H24. The company carried 4.4m passengers in 2Q24 vs. 4.1m passengers in 2Q23, up by 8% y-o-y, with the international traffic up by 9% y-o-y in 2Q24. Passenger traffic from the AIA, the main base of Aegean Airlines, was up by 13% y-o-y, while from the second main base of Thessaloniki Airport, passenger traffic was up by 12% y-o-y, confirming the company’s strategy. The load factor of the 1H24 was slightly lower at 81% vs. 82.3% in 1H23 (in 1Q24 load factor was at 81.7%).
The ASE Index finished the day flat, on a relatively low EUR 85m turnover, with banks recording modest gains of 0.6%. Among top gainers, Lamda stood out rising c4.6%, OPAP and Titan were up 2.4% and 2.3%, and PPC marked a 2.2% increase. Jumbo recorded the biggest drop down -4.2%, while Ellaktor and Fourlis were down -2.4% and -c1.9%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
AEGEAN AIRLINES <AEGN GA, OW>
Aegean Airlines reported passenger traffic growth of 9% yoy in 1H24, reaching a total of 7.3m passengers, while in 2Q24 traffic rose 8% yoy. Growth was driven by both the domestic and international network, with international passenger traffic to and from Athens marking a 13% increase, boosting the company’s plans for further increasing the capacity and frequencies. Load factors in 1H24 stood at 81%, slightly lower than the 82.3% reported in 1H23 with ASK at +11% yoy.
Passenger traffic growth for 1H24 is running ahead of your full year forecast (5% growth in scheduled), indicating an upside risk to our bottom line forecasts (EUR 138m net profit, consensus at EUR 147m); although, we do stress the seasonality and the importance of 3Q24 in full year numbers (>50% of EBITDA) we think news is positive and supportive for the share price. On our current numbers, Aegean trades on a P/E of 8x on 2024E.
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Following the bank’s successful pricing of its EUR 650m Green Senior Preferred Bond, which is expected to be assigned the “Baa3” investment grade rating from Moody’s, Piraeus MREL ratio currently stands at 28%. According to Piraeus, the MREL ratio is anticipated to exceed the 28% level by year end.
ATHENS WATER <EYDAP GA>
The company announced that the AGM approved the dividend distribution of EUR 0.10/share, with the ex-dividend date set on Jully 22nd.
Market Comment // The Greek benchmark inched higher on Thursday (+0.11%), swinging between losses of -0.11% and gains of +0.43%. Turnover was subdued at €85m, of which c€6m in block trades. Among top gainers in the session, Lamda rallied +4.6%, while ADMIE Holding, OPAP, Titan and PPC also advanced >2%. Aegean, Intralot, AIA, OLP, NBG, IDEAL and EYDAP all gained more than 1%. On the flipside, Jumbo (-4.2%) and CCH (-3.14%) were the leading laggards, trailed by losses >1% in Ellaktor, Fourlis, Trade Estates and Optima Bank. We see a potentially slightly positive opening today, as slowing US inflation raises Fed easing bets supporting a risk-on tone.
Cenergy Holdings // New note (“Tackling the Interconnection Shortage”) where we recalibrate our numbers (lifting 2024-25e adj. EBITDA +5-8%) in light of sustained momentum in execution and better-priced backlog across both divisions. Our revised estimates point to double-digit growth at both revenue and adj. EBITDA levels through 2027e, now incorporating greater volumes from expected capacity additions in 2025. Our base scenario also includes an effect from the group’s entry into the US (ETA c2028, we assume). We argue that despite the recent outperformance, CENER’s growth-adjusted valuation continues to look compelling, especially when factoring in upside risk from the US market. Our new PT of €12.7 (DCF-based at 9% WACC) effectively places Cenergy at c9.8x 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA, still some c10% discount vs. best-in-class cables peers.
Aegean Airlines // Aegean announced a +8% increase in Q2’24 passenger traffic (4.4m passengers) on +9% higher seats (5.4m seats), indicating load factors are holding up quite well. Overall, H1 saw both passengers and available seats increase 9% yoy. Capacity growth will moderate in the winter season, with Aegean announcing it is planning to increase seats by c6% yoy (19.8m), just a tad higher than our estimate (19.5m).
EYDAP // At yesterday’s AGM shareholders approved the gross DPS of €0.10 (1.8% div. yield; ex-div 22nd July, payment 29th July). Commenting on the draught which is tightening water resources, mgt said the company is contemplating alternative scenarios for water supply in Athens area, which will require c€500-750m investments in the following years. These come on top of the plans for the Eastern Attica project, the smart metering systems and other sewerage projects already planned (c€1.4bn, >60% of which will be EU-funded).
Entersoft // Entersoft announced the success of the public offer, with Unity now holding 99.62% of the share capital. The main shareholder will thus proceed to a squeeze-out.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
