Jumbo: Αυξημένες 7% οι πωλήσεις στο 11μηνο. Στο +6% στην Ελλάδα, στο +11% στην Κύπρο, στο +10% στη Βουλγαρία και στο +6% στη Ρουμανία. Διατηρεί το guidance για πωλήσεις 4% φέτος.
ATHEX headed south yesterday, after six consecutive sessions with gains. In line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.42% at 1,458.81 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.47%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.08%, Banks Index: -0.79%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.8m, up from Monday’s EUR 141.9m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today, lacking any catalysts.
HEADLINES
Macro Headlines
Greek CPI up by 2.4% y-o-y in November (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, CPI (national index) increased by +2.4% y-o-y and decreased by 0.4% m-o-m in November 2024, while the annual average rate of CPI increased by +2.8% over the trailing 12 months. The sectors with the most notable y-o-y movements were clothing and footwear (+7.2%) and Hotel – Cafes – Restaurants (+6.0%). Additionally, the harmonized CPI in November 2024 rose by 3.0% y-o-y (in line with 3.0% flash estimate released earlier this month) and decreased by 1.2% m-o-m.
Industrial production down in October (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) decreased by 2.9% y-o-y in October 2024, due to the decrease by 8.7% YoY in Mining and quarrying and by -3.0% in Electricity supply index. In January-October 2024, Greek industrial production rose by 5.3% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Cost of lower transaction fees between EUR 100m-EUR 120m for systemic banks-Press
Press reports (euro2day) suggest that the cost of lower transaction fees that the government will announce soon will range between EUR 100.0m and EUR 120.0m for the four systemic banks or between EUR 25.0m-30.0m per bank.
Company Headlines
METLEN interested to enter the market of Germany (press)
According press, METLEN is set to expand its activities to Germany, focusing in developing RES and storage projects.
PPC to cancel 12,730,000 own shares (3.33% of total).
PPC, following a relevant approval from the EGM held on 4th November, will cancel from 13 December 12,730,000 treasury shares acquired at an average price of EUR 7.58/share, decreasing the total number of shares from 382,000,000 to 369,270,000.
Jumbo 11M24 sales update
Jumbo released a solid sales update for November 2024, however, the international and domestic economic environment became more complex. Group sales were up by +7.0% y-o-y, driven by parent net sales (up by 6% y-o-y), Cyprus (+11%), and followed by Bulgaria (+10%) and Romania (+6%). Additionally, In 11M24, the Group’s sales recorded an overall increase of c. +7% YoY, with Greek sales up by 7% YoY, Romania sales also up by +10%, Bulgarian sales gained +8%, while Cypriot sales were up by +2%. As a reminder, Jumbo has already reopened the stores in Karditsa and Larissa and the two additional hyperstores in Cyprus and Bucharest, Romania started its operations in October and will create an easier comparable in 4Q24e. Management highlighted that political developments in the United States, and the increased possibility of trade tariffs, are headwinds that are almost impossible to quantify and reiterated the guidance for 4% sales growth, while it will provide a FY25 guidance after the lapsing of the first four months of 2025. That said, in our view, there is an upside risk for Jumbo’s guidance, and we believe that sales growth will reach c. +8% (lower than our 10% initial estimate), affected by Romania’s weaker-than-expected sales performance.
Admie Holding 9M24 Results release date
Admie Holding will release the 9M24 results on Monday, 16th December, before the market opening.
Attica Bank 9M2024 results out tomorrow
Attica Bank is set to report 9M2024 results tomorrow, post-market close.
The ASE Index finished mixed on Tuesday, down 0.4%, driven by a broad sell-off in the banking sector, while turnover stood at EUR 142m. All major banks finished on the red, down 0.8%, with Piraeus leading the losses at -2%, Alpha recording a 1.6% drop, whereas NBG, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus ended just below the flatline. On market’s top performers, Jumbo rose c.1.7%, following solid revenue growth in November, PPC increased 1.2% and Cenergy marked c.0.9% gains. Helleniq Energy and Lamda lost Monday’s momentum, slipping 2% and 1.9% respectively, Aegean was down 1.6%, followed by GEK Terna -1.4% and OTE -0.8%. From the smaller caps, Austriacard stood out at +4.3%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
*According to ELSTAT, inflation stood at 2.4% yoy in November 2024, unchanged from October 2024. The highest price increases are recorded in the clothing-footwear (+7.2% yoy), hotels-cafes (+6% yoy) and health (+3.6% yoy) categories.
*The EU Commission announced that Greece is among the seven selected countries for the establishment of the first AI factories in Europe.
*Reportedly, Michalis Argyrou took over as Chief Economic Advisor to the PM, following Alex Patelis resignation.
BANKS
Reportedly, the reduction of fees on retail transactions will have a cost of c.EUR 100m for the banking system (EUR 25-30m per bank). In addition, a potential increase in the property tax (for properties held in the books of the banks) could have an additional cost of EUR 5-10m, according to press reports.
JUMBO <BELA GA, OW>
Jumbo released its monthly sales update, reporting a 7% yoy revenue growth both in November 2024 as well as in the period of January-November 2024. Broken down by region, sales in Greece increased 6% yoy, rising 7% yoy in the eleven-month period. Performance in Cyprus indicated a 11% yoy increase in turnover in November, following the opening of a new hyperstore in Nicosia, translated to a 2% yoy increase in January-November. Moreover, the opening of the new store in Bucharest contributed to a 6% yoy growth in Romania, bringing turnover up 10% yoy in 11M24. November was strong for sales in Bulgaria, recording a 10% yoy growth in November, or 8% yoy for the eleven-month period. Management reiterated its guidance for 4% yoy sales growth in FY24, while due to the current challenging environment, Jumbo will not publish any guidance for 2025. As per the company’s announcement the publication of the 2025 guidance will be more credible after the first four months of the year.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus announced that AGM is scheduled for May 16th of 2025.
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
Metlen announced the completion of the development of the Tocopilla and Tamarico solar parks in Chile, with a capacity of 227 MW and 167 MW respectively. Following the completion of the two projects Metlen’s total renewable energy capacity in the country reached 588 MW.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC proceeded with the cancelation of 12.7m own shares. Following the cancelation, PPC’s total share capital amounts to EUR 915.8m divided into 369m shares.
Market Comment // Despite trading in positive territory during the early hours of yesterday’s session, the Greek market lost momentum after midday, closing down 0.42% at 1,458.8 points. Piraeus Bank led the laggards, shedding 2.0%, followed by Lamda Development (-1.9%), HelleniQ Energy (-1.9%), and ElvalHalcor (-1.8%). Other notable decliners included Aegean Airlines (-1.7%), Alpha Bank (-1.7%), Titan Cement (-1.7%), AIA (-1.6%), Autohellas (-1.5%), GEK Terna (-1.4%), and EYDAP (-1.4%). On the positive side, Austriacard surged 4.3%, with Dimand (+2.8%), Jumbo (+1.7%), PPC (+1.3%), Fourlis (+1.1%), and Ellaktor (+1.0%) also closing in positive territory. Today, markets are likely to open on a negative note as investors brace for the release of U.S. inflation data, which will offer insights into the Fed’s potential path for interest rate policy.
Banks // The cost from the reduction of fees and charges mulled by banks – after pressure from the govt – is likely to settle near €25-30m per bank, as per press, i.e. quite manageable (<1.5% of NII). Meanwhile, as per the same article, banks are also being urged to support the Property Fund initiative with €90m in low-cost financing to enhance housing availability.
Metlen // According to press, Metlen is considering the expansion of its energy storage projects in Greece and internationally, targeting markets such as Germany. In Greece, the company plans to develop 2.7 GW RES by 2030, including 600–700 MW in energy storage, 1.3 GW in photovoltaics, and 600–700 MW in wind energy.
Jumbo // November sales increased +7% bringing the 11m sales growth to +7%. We believe this is where FY24 sales growth is likely to land, far better than mgt guidance of +4% (which has been reiterated). 2025 guidance will be provided around May 2025, given the complex operating backdrop.
IDEAL Holdings // In response to an inquiry from the HCMC on December 10th regarding the potential acquisition of Greek packaged food company Barba Stathis, IDH stated that, in accordance with applicable legislation, it has no new information to disclose on the matter.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
