«outperform».
Eurobank: Απέκτησε το 8,58% της κυπριακής Demetra Holdings, κυπριακής εταιρίας
συμμετοχών που ελέγχει το 21,3% της Ελληνικής Τράπεζας.
ΕΚΤΕΡ: Νέα σύμβαση έργου με το ΙΤΕ ύψους 3,2 εκατ. ευρώ. Μέχρι τα τέλη του 2025 η
ολοκλήρωση του αντικειμένου της σύμβασης. Στα 123 εκατ. ευρώ το ανεκτέλεστο υπόλοιπο
της κατασκευαστικής.
Metlen: Πέντε έργα στον τομέα της ηλιακής ενέργεια αξίας 2,2 δισ. δολαρίων Καναδά στη
χώρα.
Alpha Bank: Προσαρμοσμένα κέρδη 666 εκατ. ευρώ στο 9μηνο. Στο 4,6% τα NPEs, στο
15,5% ο δείκτης βασικών κεφαλαίων CET1, στο 14,4% ο δείκτης ROE. Αύξηση των κύριων
εσόδων από Τραπεζικές εργασίες κατά 3,7% σε ετήσια βάση.
Αύξηση 2,4% καταγράφει ο πληθωρισμός τον Οκτώβριο (από 2,9% τον Σεπτέμβριο). Tο ελαιόλαδο είναι 18% ακριβότερο και τα ψάρια 8,5%, αλλά καταγράφεται μείωση τιμών 8% στο αλεύρι. Ακριβότερο κατά 13% είναι το ρεύμα και κατά 10% το φυσικό αέριο. Μεγάλες οι ανατιμήσεις (25%) στα αεροπορικά εισιτήρια και 16,9% στις τιμές των ξενοδοχείων και στο+14% στα ασφάλιστρα υγείας.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Αύξηση 2,5% στον Δείκτη Βιομηχανικής Παραγωγής Σεπτεμβρίου. Η
μεγαλύτερη ποσοστιαία αύξηση καταγράφηκε στους κλάδο εκτυπώσεων, αναπαραγωγής
προεγγεγραμμένων μέσων, ποτοποιϊας, βασικών μετάλλων & ορυχείων/λατομείων.
ATHEX headed north on Friday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.33% at 1,413.13 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.75%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.14%, Banks Index: +1.51%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 137.3m, up from Thursday’s EUR 98.1m. On a weekly basis, the General Index jumped by 1.63% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +2.34%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.45%, Banks index: +5.07%). We expect the market to move higher today, with Optima bank in focus. Ahead this week: Bank of Cyprus 9M24 results tomorrow before market, PPC and Lamda Development results on Wednesday after market, HELLENiQ ENERGY, OTE and Aegean Airlines results on Thursday after market.
Macro Headlines
Greek CPI up by 2.4% y-o-y in October (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, CPI (national index) increased by +2.4% y-o-y and by 0.6% m-o-m in October 2024, while the annual average rate of CPI increased by +2.9% over the trailing 12 months. The sectors with the most notable y-o-y movements were Clothing and Footwear (+5.0%) and Hotel – Cafes – Restaurants (+6.1%). Additionally, the harmonized CPI in October 2024 rose by 3.1% y-o-y (down from the 3.2% flash estimate released earlier this month) and increased by 0.1% m-o-m.
Industrial production up in September (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose by 2.5% y-o-y in September 2024, due to the 9.6% YoY increase in the Mining and Quarrying sub-index. In January-September 2024, Greek industrial production rose by 6.2% y-o-y.
Company Headlines
Optima bank || Restricted | CP: EUR 12.72 | TP: Restricted
3Q24 results beat estimates, strong growth rates, on track to meet FY Guidance
3Q24 results: Net profit came in at EUR 39.2m in 3Q24 (+8% q-o-q, +40% y-o-y), 3% above consensus estimate of EUR 38.1. Net interest income reached EUR 49.6m in 3Q24 (+6% q-o-q, +30% y-o-y), 1% above consensus estimate of EUR 49.1m and fee income came in at EUR 10.1m (+9% q-o-q, +24% y-o-y) in 3Q24, in line with consensus estimate of EUR 10.2m. NIM narrowed to 4.20% vs. 4.37% in 3Q24, the highest in the Greek universe. Core income came in at EUR 59.8m (+6% q-o-q, +29% y-o-y) and non-core revenues reached EUR 6.8m (+11% q-o-q, +33% y-o-y). Hence, total revenues stood at EUR 66.5m (+7% q-o-q, +29% y-o-y) and OpEx at EUR 14.5m (+16% q-o-q, +1% y-o-y). Pre provision income landed at EUR 52.0m (+4% q-o-q, +40% y-o-y) in 3Q24, 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 50.8m. LLPs stood at EUR 3.6m (+49% q-o-q) in 3Q24, 19% above consensus estimate of EUR 3.0m.
9M24 results: Net profit reached a new record of EUR 108.2m (+50% y-o-y) in 9M24, higher than 2023 net profit of EUR 103.0m and RoTE was shaped at 26.8% in 9M24, the highest among Greek banks and one of the highest in Europe. Net interest income came in at EUR 141.1m (+43% y-o-y), fee income at EUR 29.3m (+30% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 188.0m (+39% y-o-y). Pre-provision income reached EUR 146.9m (+52% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions stood at EUR 10.7m (+23% y-o-y).
Balance sheet: Gross Loans reached EUR 3.31bn (+8% q-o-q, +48% y-o-y), deposits at EUR 4.1bn (+11% q-o-q, +32% y-o-y) and assets at EUR 4.9bn (+9% q-o-q, +34% y-o-y). Group NPEs narrowed to EUR 30.3m from EUR 31.6m in 2Q24 and the NPE ratio squeezed to 0.92% from 1.03% in 2Q24. Tangible equity increased by EUR 40.8m q-o-q to EUR 577.7m. FL CET1 and CAD ratios stood at 15.58% vs. 15.82% in 2Q24.
2024 Guidance: Management stated that the bank is on track to meet FY 2024 guidance of net profit in excess of EUR 134m and RoTE of >24%.
Conference call: A conference call will follow today at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers- GR: +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 7000, UK & INTL:+44 (0) 800 368 1063,+44 (0) 203 059 5872, US: +1 516 447 5632.
Eurobank increased its stake in Demetra Holdings Plc
Following the announcement on 7.11.24, Eurobank announced the completion of the acquisition of 17,152,353 shares in Demetra Holdings Plc.
OTE Share Buyback
The company announced that during 4/11/2024 – 8/11/2024, it purchased 393,835 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.2463 per share and now holds 4,909,137 own shares or 1.190% of the total shares outstanding.
Papoutsanis to distribute EUR 0.03026/ share interim dividend
Following the 25.10.24 announcement, regarding the interim dividend distribution, Papoutsanis announced that the gross amount per share now amounts to EUR 0.03026 (vs. EUR 0.03/sh), excluding the 231,341 own shares held by the company. (DY: 1.29%, ex-date: 11 November).
The market ended the day flattish +0.3%, boosted by the performance of the banking sector, on EUR 136.9m turnover. The banking index rose 1.5%, driven by Alpha Bank’s 5.3% and Eurobank’s 2.8%, both following strong 3Q24 results, while NBG lost 1.5% (despite the strong 3Q24 numbers). On non-banks, PPA was up 2.4%, Metlen finished 1.5% higher, followed by Cenergy and PPC gaining 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. Among market’s laggards, OTE slipped 1.3%, Helleniq Energy was down 1.3%, while GEK Terna and Jumbo finished just below the flatline.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, annual inflation in October stood at 2.4%, vs 2.9% in September. The largest price increases were recorded among hotels-cafes-restaurants +6% yoy, clothing and footwear +5% yoy and the health sector +3.6% yoy.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Highlights from the post results conference call held on Friday: 1/ the NPE ratio will drop below 4% by year end 2024 with an additional NPE transaction in 4Q (at a cost of around EUR 50m); 2/ further cost optimization with an additional VRS in 3Q24 of EUR 31m cost after tax (blended with other adjustments that add up to 34mn), with a slightly top-up <EUR 10m in Q4 upon finalization of the program; 3/ besides the upgrade in the 2024E guidance, management provided an initial glimpse of the 2025E NII, which is expected to be at least flat on 2024 (lower rates but upside in loan volumes, better deposit mix, wholesale funding cost and tailwinds from securities book); 4/ the management will provide business plan targets in early 2025E together with the results announcement; 5/ strong potential for distributions ahead with the pro-forma CET1 ratio at 17.1% and the Total Capital Ratio at 23.1%.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank announced the completion of the acquisition of 17.1m shares of Demetra Holdings, corresponding to 8.58% of its share capital.
OPTIMA BANK <OPTIMA GA>
Optima Bank reported 3Q24 net profit of EUR 39.2m (consensus at EUR 38.1n), on NII of EUR 49.6m (+30% yoy with consensus at EUR 49.1m) and PPI of EUR 52.0m (+40% yoy with consensus at EUR 50.8m). The loan book grew by 34.5% YTD and 8% qoq with deposits up 29.4% YTD (time at 52%). All in, in the 9M24 period Optima Bank delivered a strong net profit of EUR 108.2m with a ROTE of 26.8%, well on track to exceed the FY24 guidance for net profit of >EUR 134m with a ROTE of >24%.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus will report 3Q24 results tomorrow before the market opens. A conference call will follow on the same day at 11:00 CET. Dial ins: GR: +30 211 180 2000, UK & INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872, US: + 1 516 447 5632. On the key P&L items, in 3Q24 we expect another very strong quarter with net profits of EUR 125m (vs. EUR 138m in 2Q24) driven by a milder drop in NII (EUR 201m, down 2.9% qoq on our numbers) and low cost of risk.
TERNA ENERGY <TENERGY GA, OW>
Terna Energy announced that in the framework of its Stock Awards Program, the company distributed 250k new shares to 26 executives.
ATTICA BANK <TATT GA>
Attica Bank announced that the exercise period of the 359.5m issued warrants, with the right to acquire 3.5 new shares at a price of EUR 0.05/share, is set from November 8th to November 28th. The commencement of trading of the shares resulting from the exercise of the warrants is scheduled for December 4th.
Market Comment // In a positive session on Friday the Greek market advanced 0.33% closing at 1,413.13 points, near its intraday high with Greek banks outperforming (+1.5%) propelled by strong sector results. Trading activity advanced on Friday to €137m (of which c€35m in trading blocks on financials), above the 100d moving average of €120m. On a weekly basis, the benchmark index gained 1.6%, led by a rally in Greek banks (+5.07%). Among top gainers at Friday’s session, Premia (+6.51%) stood out and Alpha bank (+5.37%) led blue chips, followed by +3.49% gains in Ellaktor and +2.87% in Eurobank. OLP and Piraeus bank also advanced >2% trailed by a >1% rise in Metlen, Cenergy, Lamda, PPC, ELHA and Intralot. On the flipside, NBG, BoC, OTE, ELPE, IDEAL and Real Consulting all dropped more than 1%. Today futures point to a positive opening driven by risk-on momentum, as investors assess economic growth prospects after the US election results.
Optima Bank // Optima Bank has posted a strong Q3’24, with Adjusted Net profit at €39.2mn (above cons of €38.1mn; mainly due to lower taxes), up by 8% qoq and +40% yoy, leading to a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 28.1% for Q3 and 26.8% for 9M’24. 9M Net profit settled at €108.2m, up 50% yoy, with Optima on track to deliver on the 2024 guidance for >€134mn.
Lamda // Lamda is scheduled to release 9M’24 results on Wednesday 13th Nov after market. We forecast 9M’24 adj. EBITDA pre-revaluations at €78m, more than double yoy, boosted by positive Ellinikon EBITDA and continuing growth in Lamda Malls and Marinas. However significant net financial costs and taxes are still weighing on our bottom line forecast (net losses of €9.6m in 9M’24e vs €6m net losses in 9M’23). As such, implied Q3’24e adj. EBITDA for the group will come in near €36m on our numbers (higher vs €8.3m in Q3’23) aided by the positive Ellinikon EBITDA, resulting to Q3’24e group net profit of €9m (vs c€25m net losses a year ago).
Papoutsanis // Shares will trade ex-div today, €0.03 gross interim dividend per share (1.3% yield). Payment will commence on 15th November.
Terna Energy // The company announced it has awarded a total of 250k new shares to 26 executive officers as part of its stock grant program. Issued through a share capital increase funded by capitalizing reserves above par value, these shares represent 0.21% of the company’s paid-in capital.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
