XA: Στο 59,7% αυξήθηκαν οι συναλλαγές των ξένων τον Ιανουάριο σε σχέση με το 57,9% τον προηγούμενο μήνα.
Metlen: η Bank of America ξεκινά την κάλυψη με σύσταση «αγορά» και τιμή-στόχο τα 45 ευρώ. Λαμβάνει υπόψη την αποτίμηση που προκύπτει από τον μέσο όρο 7 φορές τα EBITDA του 2026 και μια ανάλυση προεξοφλημένης ταμειακής ροής (DCF). Με έκπτωση 26% σε σχέση με την αποτίμηση DCF η τρέχουσα τιμή.
Metlen: Στο 6,43% ανεβάζει τη συμμετοχή της η Fairfax, από μετατροπή ομολογιών σε μετοχές η ενίσχυση του ποσοστού.
Gregy: Τον Φλεβάρη οι μελέτες για το καλώδιο Ελλάδα – Αίγυπτος. Τέσσερις διεθνείς εταιρείες υπέβαλαν προσφορές για τις μελέτες του Gregy για τις λεγόμενες «μελέτες γραφείου» και τέσσερις για τη τεχνική ανάλυση του έργου.
Wood & Company: Ο οίκος προβλέπει ότι η ελληνική οικονομία αναπτύχθηκε με ρυθμό 2,4% το 2024, ο οποίος θα μειωθεί σε 2% φέτος και έπειτα θα ενισχυθεί το 2026, σε 2,7%.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Αύξηση 5,8% στη βιομηχανική παραγωγή του Δεκεμβρίου σε ετήσια βάση και 5,2% σε μέσα ετήσια επίπεδα. καταγράφει η ΕΛΣΤΑΤ. Κατά 16,4% ο Δείκτης Παροχής Ηλεκτρικού Ρεύματος, κατά 5,7% ο Δείκτης Παροχής Νερού και κατά 3,6% ο Δείκτης Μεταποίησης ετησίως.
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.38% at 1,551.90 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.50%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.72%, Banks Index: -1.17%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 115.1m, down from Friday’s EUR 130.7m. We expect ATHEX to move higher today, ahead of the MSCI Greece announcement after the market close.
Macro Headlines
Industrial production up in December (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 5.8% y-o-y in December 2024, due to the increase by 16.4% YoY in Electricity supply index and by 5.7% in Water supply index. In January-December 2024, Greek industrial production rose by 5.2% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Spiti mou II housing program applications exceed 100k-Press
Reportedly (powergame), 120k applications have been submitted for the Spiti mou II housing program. The news is positive as it will accelerate housing loans disbursements in 2025. Recall that housing loans amounted to EUR 26.5bn (-2.6% y-o-y) in 2024.
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece to sell its 9.99% stake in Ethniki Insurance-Press
Press reports (newmoney) indicate that according to the SPA between National Bank of Greece and CVC Capital Partners, in the case of disposal by CVC, National Bank of Greece should sell its 9.99% stake at the same price. According press the General Manager of the Corporate and Investment Banking of NBG stated that the bank will sell its stake in Ethniki Insurance.
Fairfax extends its participation in Metlen’s share capital by 1.75% (expected)
Fairfax, in the context of the SPA agreement with Metlen from 13th December 2022, acquired on 7/02/2025 2.5m of MYTILINEOS’ treasury shares at a price of EUR 20/share (1.75% of its total voting rights), hence effectively extending its participation in the company’s share capital to 6.43% from 4.68% previously.
Comment: The news was expected; additionally, Metlen will record a gain from the transaction, as the shares disposed were acquired at a lower average purchase price.
Placement of HELLENiQ ENERGY shares this April or May (press)
According to press reports, the major shareholders of HELLENiQ ENERGY will proceed with the combined placement of up to 20% of their stakes in the company this April or May (currently Latsis’ Paneuropean and the HRADF in HELLENiQ ENERGY control 40.4% and 31.2% respectively), aiming to lower their combined participation close to 51%.
Fourlis commencement of trading of new shares derived from the stock option plan
The company announced that 64 executives exercised 843,300 rights at a price of EUR 1.00/share and as a result the share capital of the company increased by EUR 843,300. Following the above increase the new share capital now amounts to EUR 53,360,277 with a nominal value of EUR 1.00/share.
The ASE Index finished flattish yesterday, as weakness in the banking sector dragged down market performance, while turnover stood at EUR 94m. All major banks ended on red territory, with the banking index down 1.1%, led by Alpha Bank losing 1.6%, Piraeus bank marking a 1.2%, drop and NBG as well Eurobank both down 1%. On market’s top gainers, Metlen continued to post gains of 2.6%, Helleniq Energy rose 1.3%, Lamda was up c.0.6%, whereas PPC and GEK Terna ended just above the flatline. Among large-cap performers, Cenergy recorded the biggest decline, down 1.8%, closely followed by Titan at -1.6% and OTE at -0.5%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, the Overall Industrial Production Index (IPI) recorded a 5.8% yoy increase in December 2024. For 2024, the average IPI stood at +5.2% yoy.
MSCI
The MSCI index review is scheduled for today, after the market close. We remind that the MSCI Greece Index current constituents are NBG, Eurobank, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank, Metlen, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC and OTE.
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Reportedly, the Piraeus Bank agreement with CVC to acquire a 70% in Ethniki Insurance will also include the c.10% NBG stake.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank announced the admission to trading of 697k shares, following the exercise of stock option rights by 99 employees of the bank.
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
Metlen announced that Fairfax Financial Holding (FFH) acquired 2.5m shares (1.75% of total voting rights), by exercising the right of the already announced exchangeable bond loan issued in February 2023. Post transaction, FFH now holds 6.43% stake in Metlen, with Metlen’s treasury shares currently standing at 2.93m. We remind that together with the initial transfer of 2.70m shares (4.68% stake) in February 2023, the parties also entered a EUR 50m exchangeable bond whereby Fairfax had a two (2) year option to acquire a further 2.5m of Metlen’s treasury shares at a price of EUR 20/share.
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
According to mononews, another placement from the major shareholders could take place in April-May.
FOURLIS <FOYRK GA>
Fourlis announced the admission to trading of 843k new shares following a rights exercise from 64 executives (at EUR 1.0/share), as part of the stock option plan approved in 2021.
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.
Market Comment // Trading in negative territory throughout the day on Monday, contrary to EU markets, the ASE General index ticked 0.38% lower to close at 1,551.9 points. Turnover dropped to €115m, below the 100-day moving average of €154m. Cenergy (-2.03%) led laggards, followed by ELHA (-2%), Viohalco (-1.75%), Alpha Bank (-1.68%), Titan (-1.64%), HTO (-1.52%), and Piraeus Bank (-1.25%). On the flipside, Metlen (+2.43%), PPA (+2.2%), Premia (+1.56%), Dimand (+1.46%), Quest (+1.41%), HelleniQ Energy (+1.32%), Kri-Kri (+1.23%), Sarantis (+1.23%) and Noval (+1.02%) were among the names granting support. EU futures point to a negative opening today as investor sentiment is pressured by US tariff announcements, while markets also await commentary from Fed Chairman’s semiannual congressional testimony later today.
MSCI // The MSCI index review announcement is scheduled for today 11th February. As a reminder, the MSCI Greece Standard Index currently consists of 9 stocks, namely OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Piraeus Bank and Mytilineos. Changes will become effective after the close of 28th February (flow).
Coca-Cola HBC // Coca-Cola HBC will release its FY’24 results on Thursday 13th February pre-market opening. We forecast 2024e adj. EBIT at €1.16bn, +11.2% organic yoy, underpinned by price/mix, with revenues +12.7% organic at €10.66bn (+4.7% yoy) on c3% volume growth. We expect a proposed DPS at €0.98/share (2.7% div. yield). Looking into 2025, momentum remains dynamic, with strong execution likely supporting solid organic EBIT growth amidst an inflationary and consumer sensitive environment. Consensus forecasts are looking for >10% 2025e organic EBIT growth (€1.28bn), led by c7% organic revenue growth.
Metlen // Fairfax exercised its €50mn convertible bond option to acquire 2.5mn shares at €20 per share. As a result, Fairfax has officially increased its stake in Metlen to 6.43%.
HelleniQ Energy // According press, a placement of HelleniQ Energy shares could take place between April and May, though the report does not provide specific sources to confirm this timeframe.
