Άνοδο κατά 1,17% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1417,75 µονάδες (2η συνεχόµενη). Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 122 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν από το ξεκίνηµα την υπεροπλία οδηγώντας το Γ.∆. σε ανοδική τροχιά και µονίµως σε θετικό έδαφος. Με οδηγό το τραπεζικό κλάδο µε πρωταγωνιστή τη Eurobank και συµπαραστάτη το Μυτιληναίο από τους λοιπούς δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους. Με το Γ.∆. να κλείνει στις δηµοπρασίες λίγο χαµηλότερα από το ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό των 1419 µονάδων που είχε καταγραφεί λίγο νωρίτερα και µε τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται πτωτικά. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,286%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+3,18%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε τη Eurobank (+5,41%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε ο Μυτιληναίος (+4,08%), το Jumbo (+1,15%), η Βιοχάλκο (+1,69%), η Lamda (+1,51%) αλλά και η Intrakom (+6,57%), η Optima (+4,67%), η KLM (+8,39%) και ο Κέκροψ (+17,22%) από τη µεσαία και µικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (-1,12%), ο Τιτάν (-0,75%), ο Σαράντης (-0,35%) και η Τενέργα (-0,28%). Απολογιστικά, 62 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 39 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ανακοινώνεται σήµερα στις ΗΠΑ ο πληθωρισµός για το Μάρτιο που εκτιµάται ότι θα φτάσει το 3,5% από 3,2% το Φεβρουάριο, ενώ το βράδυ η Federal δηµοσιοποιεί τα πρακτικά της τελευταίας συνεδρίασής της. Η ανοδική κίνηση του Γ.∆. ενισχύει την προοπτική για εβδοµαδιαίο κλείσιµο πάνω από τις 1414 µονάδες, ανοίγοντας το δρόµο για κίνηση προς νέο ιστορικό υψηλό 13 ετών (στις 1434,34 µονάδες της 4/3/2024 το υφιστάµενο).
∆ΕΗ: Καθαρά κέρδη 485 εκατ. ευρώ, µέρισµα €0,25 ανά µετοχή. Έργα ΑΠΕ 2,8 GW υπό κατασκευή ή έτοιµα προς κατασκευή. Όφελος εξαγοράς πάνω από 200 εκατ. ευρώ από την απόκτηση των δραστηριοτήτων της Enel στην Ρουµανία. Προβλέπει επαναλαµβανόµενο EBITDA €1,7 δισ. για το 2024 από €1,3 δις. το 2023.
Φουρλής: Καθαρά κέρδη 19,2 εκατ. ευρώ, µέρισµα €0,12/µετοχή. Οι πωλήσεις αυξήθηκαν στα 535,1 εκατ. ευρώ το 2023 από 501,4 εκατ. τον προηγούµενο χρόνο. Αύξηση στο EBITDA κατά 21,8% φτάνοντας τα €48,2 εκ. το 2023 έναντι €39,6 εκ. πέρυσι.
Interlife: Τα έσοδα αυξήθηκαν κατά 11,45%, από τα 79,46 στα 86,56 εκατ. ευρώ. Τα προ φόρων αποτελέσµατα εκτινάχθηκαν από τις ζηµίες ύψους 7,97 εκατ. το 2022 σε κέρδη ύψους 17,29 εκατ. ευρώ.
Morgan Stanley: οι ανακοινώσεις µερισµάτων του Μαΐου ή Ιουνίου των ελληνικών τραπεζών θα αποτελέσουν τον επόµενο καταλύτη re-rating για τις ελληνικές τράπεζες, µε τις προσδοκώµενες µερισµατικές αποδόσεις να προβλέπονται από 5% έως 11% τα έτη 2024- 2026. Τιµές-στόχοι: Πειραιώς τα 5,08 ευρώ, Εθνική Τράπεζα στα 8,20 ευρώ, στα 2,08 ευρώ για την Alpha Bank και στα 2,33 ευρώ για τη Eurobank.
ΤτΕ: σήµα κινδύνου για το Ταµείο Ανάκαµψης, ροή µόλις 5 δισ. στις εταιρείες. Από τα 36 δισ. ευρώ που έχουν εγκριθεί για τη χώρα, έχουν εισρεύσει τα 15 δισ. ευρώ, αλλά στις επιχειρήσεις έχουν φτάσει µόλις 5 δισ. ευρώ αντανακλώντας διοικητικές δυσχέρειες.
Πάγος από το ΣτΕ στα έργα για το FlyOver, έργο που εκτελεί η Αβαξ. Η προσωρινή διαταγή του ΣτΕ δόθηκε µετά τις προσφυγές κατοίκων.
Προσφορές άνω του 1,45 δισ. ευρώ υποβλήθηκαν για το εξαετές οµόλογο της Τράπεζας Πειραιώς αντλεί 500 εκατ. ευρώ από την αγορά. Το κουπόνι της έκδοσης διαµορφώθηκε στο 5%.
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)
* Piraeus (TPEIR GA) issues €500m 6NC5 senior preferred notes, priced to yield 5%
Public Power Corp-PPC (Overweight): A strong finish to 2023 and reaffirmed 2024-26 guidance
* FY23 clean EBITDA +35% yoy to €1.29bn (3% beat) in reported terms, c€1.55bn proforma for Romanian acquisition, above €1.5bn guidance
* Stronger Q4 FCF brings net debt at €3.17bn (2x PF EBITDA), flat yoy ex-M&A; Reinstates dividends (€0.25/sh, 2% yield) after a decade
* Reiterates €1.7/2.3bn 2024/26 EBITDA targets, despite falling energy prices; 70% of 4GW RES pipeline by 2026 under construction or RTB
* Fourlis (FOYRK GA): Q4 net profit ex-REIC revaluations -17% to €6m (miss) due to high financial costs; adj. IKEA EBIT +28% to €12m (5% beat); disclosure improvement
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a second consecutive session, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 1.17% at 1,417.75 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.69%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.39%, Banks Index: +3.18%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 119.9m, up from Monday’s EUR 111.3m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, with PPC in the spotlight.
Council of State orders temporarily suspends the construction of the Thessaloniki Flyover (press)
According to press reports, the Council of the state ordered yesterday the temporary suspension of construction works of the Thessaloniki Flyover, a EUR 359m contract awarded to Mytilineos-AVAX joint venture.
Company Headlines
PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 11.91 | TP: 17.40
2023 Results – A strong year, with financial targets and investment programme delivered; Relaunches dividend payment with EUR 0.25/share; Positive outlook for 2024, guides for EBITDA of EUR 1.70bn
Facts: PPC reported in FY23 turnover of EUR 7.7bn (-32% y-o-y, mainly on lower energy prices), recurring EBITDA of EUR 12907m (+35% y-o-y, 73 above our estimate), EBITDA pro-forma (i.e. assuming full year consolidation of PPC Romania of EUR 1.5bn, in line with the recent guidance and Net Profits at EUR 485m, positively affected by the EUR 230m revaluation gain from the acquisition of ENEL Romania. Net debt increased to EUR 3.2bn, up by EUR 1.8bn y-o-y driven by large capex of EUR 2.6bn, remaining however well below the 3-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA mark. PPC relaunched its dividend payout policy, declaring a EUR 0.25/share dividend for FY23 (DY: 2.1%).
FY23 analysis: PPC’s domestic sales volume in FY23 dropped by c.13.3% y-o-y to 26m GWh, driven by the 6.2% market share erosion (average market share 56.5% in 2023 vs. 62.4% in 2022) and to lesser extent to the lower by 1.7% YoY total market demand. Consequently, total revenues dropped by 32% y-o-y to EUR 7.7bn also due to the lower market prices (average DAM price in 2023 tumbled to c. EUR 119/MWh from EUR 280/MWh in 2022). On the expenditures front, fuel expenses dropped by 44% y-o-y to EUR 1,464m in 2023, driven by the normalized natural gas expenses which were down by 57.9% y-o-y (TTF gas futures at EUR 40.7/MWh in 2023 vs. EUR 122.1/MWh in 2022) and to lesser extent the c15% oil-related costs drop. Driven by lower thermal generation which more than offset the increased y-o-y CO2 allowances in 2023, CO2 costs dropped by 20% y-o-y to EUR 826m in 2023. Additionally, the lower average DAM in 2023 drove energy purchase costs lower by 58% y-o-y to EUR 1,944m. Moreover, personnel costs rose by 6.4% y-o-y to EUR 757m, and finally, bad debt provisions in 2023 dropped to EUR 186 from EUR 207m last year. Below EBITDA, depreciation expenses were up by 5% y-o-y at EUR 672m, while net financial expenses eased by 2.3% y-o-y to EUR 282m. FCF generation remained negative in 2023 at EUR 1.26bn due to the huge capex of EUR 2.6bn (EUR 1.35bn of which towards the acquisition of ENEL Romania) which more than offset the healthy operating cash flow generation of EUR 1.56bn. Consequently, Group net debt rose by EUR 1.8bn y-t-d to EUR 3.2bn, implying a comfortable net debt/EBITDA of 2.5x.
Divisional profitability split: PPC released also divisional EBITDA figures for the yearine-month period, with conventional generation, RES and retail combined contribution reaching EUR 710m in 2023 (vs. EUR 380m last year), while on the other hand Distribution was strong, following by the upwards adjustment of HEDNO’s WACC last May, contributing EUR 580m EBITDA, vs. EUR 380.
Conclusion: PPC reported a strong set of results, in line with the recent guidance provided during the capital markets day last January, which in turn supported the relaunch of its pay-out policy after a multi-year pause. In parallel, the company executed its RES investment programme at a fast pace, adding c. 500MW in Greece and 600MW with the acquisition of ENEL Romania. Looking ahead, the investors focus on the progress of the ambitious investment programme, namely a) in the RES, with projects of 2.8GW currently under development or ready to build, b) the distribution networks in Greece and Romania, c) the completion of the new efficient CCGT in Alexandroupoli, d) the development of the optic fiber network targeting to reach 1.7m households by 2030 and e) the further development of the EV stations. Having said that, and taking also into account the positive outlook for 2024e-26e and the attractive valuation (PPC trades at a forward EV/EBITDA of 6x, c33% discount compared to our peer group), we reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock and our TP at EUR 17.40/share.
Optima Bank AGM on 23 May 2024
Optima Bank announced that it will release 1Q24 results on Tuesday 21 May 2024 and the AGM of shareholders will take place on Thursday 23 May 2024.
Piraeus Financial Holdings issued new senior bond-Press
According to Bloomberg, Piraeus Financial Holdings issued a new senior bond of EUR 500m (MREL eligible) at a yield of 5.0%. The bond has a maturity of six years and an embedded issuer call option after five years. Recall that Piraeus issued on 29 November 2023, a senior preferred bond of EUR 500m at a yield of 6.875%. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 5.00/share.
Fourlis Group results out
The company announced a strong set of results, with group revenues reaching EUR 535.1m up by 6.7% y-o-y vs. EUR 501.4m in FY22 aided by better performance in all retail segments. EBITDA stood at EUR 48.2 vs. EUR 39.6 in FY22, up by 21.8% y-o-y, with an increased profit margin of 9% vs. 7.9% last year, on the back of rationalization of operating costs, while net profit stood at EUR 19.2 almost flat y-o-y. Net debt of the group’s retail business stood at lowest level in the last decade at EUR 84.8m from EUR 102.5m in FY22 and the BoD will propose an increased dividend payment for FY23 of EUR 0.12/share compared to EUR 0.11/share last year.
Intralot Capital Luxembourg fully redeemed Senior Notes due September 2024
Intralot announced that its 100% subsidiary Intralot Capital Luxembourg completed on 09 April the early full redemption of EUR 99,568,000 in principal amount, plus accrued interest, of the outstanding 5.250% Notes due September 2024. Following this redemption, the outstanding balance of these Senior Notes is nil and any obligation under the Senior Notes is fully discharged.
IPTO Holdings financial calendar
The company will publish its FY23 results on Wednesday 17 April, the AGM will take place on Wednesday 3 July and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Monday 2 September with the dividend payment set for Monday 9 September.
Another rebound session for Athens, with benchmark index up 1.1% and turnover exceeding EUR 110m. Banks outperformed, up 3.2%, with Eurobank standing out, up 5.4% and the rest recording gains of c.+2.5%. Stellar performance for Mytilineos, up 4.1% followed by Jumbo, up 1.1%. Correction for Motor Oil, down 1.1%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Reportedly, Piraeus Bank issued a c.EUR 500m 6 year senior preferred bond with the yield at c.5.0% and offers of EUR 1.45bn.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Demetra Holdings announced that it has filed a recourse against the decision of the Competition Authority which approved the acquisition of Hellenic Bank from Eurobank. We remind that Demetra Holdings has a stake of 21.3% in Hellenic Bank and is the second largest shareholder after Eurobank (current stake at 55.3% subject to regulatory approvals). We remind also that Eurobank is required to proceed with a mandatory tender offer for the minorities immediately after regulatory approvals.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC Group reported a solid set of FY23 numbers, with management reinstating Group’s dividend policy and proposing EUR 0.25/share, in line with our estimate. The Group reported EBITDA of EUR 1.29bn, broadly in line with our forecasts, with net income reaching EUR 485m, positively impacted by EUR 0.23bn of bargain purchase gain from Enel Romania acquisition. Excluding one off, net income for the year stood at EUR 0.25bn, from EUR 9m losses in 2022, in line with expectations. Capex for the year stood at EUR 2.6bn, of which EUR 1.3bn is attributable to Enel Romania acquisition. Leverage ratio stood at 2.5x, well below self imposed ceiling of 3.5x, with net debt at EUR 3.2bn.
In 2023, PPC Group has electrified 1.1GW of RES capacity, including 0.6GW from Enel Romania Acquisition, while it decommissioned 0.9GW of lignite capacity, resulting in a total installed capacity of 10.7GW from 10.5GW in 2022, with green energy contributing 42% of the total. In 2023, CO2 emissions intensity fell by 24% yoy. In terms of generation, PPC produced 20.6TWh, down 9% yoy. As of Dec’23, 2.8GW if RES projects are in RTB or under construction phase (c.70% of residual capacity needed for 2026 targets). On distribution, the year ended with a total RAB base of EUR 4.3bn. The average retail market share of PPC in Greece recorded a reduction to 56.5% in 2023 from 62.4% in 2022. In generation, the average market share of PPC in Greece decreased to 39.1% in 2023 from 43.4% in 2022, mainly due to the lower production from natural gas fired units but also from lignite due to the gradual exit of PPC from lignite.
PPC results came in strong and in line with our numbers. Reinstatement of dividend policy should please investors, while capacity additions and investment pipeline seems to be going in line with the targets. Management guides for 2024 EBITDA of EUR 1.7bn, which is in line with our FY24E EBITDA forecast of EUR 1.68bn. We remain OW.
FOURLIS GROUP <FOYRK GA>
Fourlis Group reported FY23 numbers yesterday after the close. Sales rose 6.7% yoy to EUR 535m, with e-commerce contributing 14% of Group’s total revenues. On a like-for-like basis, i.e. excluding sales from the companies “The Athlete’s Foot” and “Intersport Turkey” that have been sold within FY ’23, Group sales growth stood at 10% yoy. In terms of segmental breakdown, IKEA and Intersport revenues increased 12.9% and 6.3% yoy respectively. Gross profit recorded a margin expansion of 50bps yoy at 45.5%. Operating EBITDA for the year stood at EUR 48.2m, up 22% yoy with EBITDA margin reaching 9.0% vs 7.9% in 2022. Revaluation gains from REIC stood at EUR 22.4m vs EUR 8.5m in 2022. EBIT for the year came in at EUR 55.5m from EUR 33m in 2022, while profit after tax stood at EUR 28m, +42% yoy. In 2023, CAPEX for retail activity stood at EUR 17.6m and EUR 121m for Trade Estates Investments. Net debt came in at EUR 85m. Proposed DPS of EUR 0.12/share, vs EUR 0.11/share in 2022.
A conference call is scheduled for today, Wednesday, April 10th, 2024, at 17:00 GR Time. Conference call dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA: +1 516 447 5632.
PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY <PPA GA>
The company announced it continues its investments in the Ship Repair Zone with the acquisition of two more shipbuilding cranes, of 40tons lifting capacity each.
INTRALOT <INLOT GA>
The company announced that its 100% subsidiary Intralot Capital Luxembourg completed the early redemption of EUR 99.6m of outstanding notes due in Sept 2024.
Market Comment // The Greek market recorded gains for a 2nd consecutive session, with the main index advancing 1.17% and settling at 1,417.8 points, despite the prevailing risk-off sentiment in EU markets. Trading activity remained at subdued levels, with turnover amounting to €119mn, below the 100-day avg of €146mn. Banks led the rally again, with Eurobank surging 5.4%, followed by Optima Bank (+4.7%), Piraeus Bank (2.5%), National Bank (+2.5%) and Alpha Bank (+2.1%). Among non-financials Mytilineos rallied 4.1%, trailed by Profile (+2.8%) while Viohalco, Elvalhalcor, Lamda Development and Jumbo all posted gains >1%. On the other hand, Ideal, Thrace Plastics and Motor Oil all retreated >1%. Today, EU futures point to a positive opening ahead of the U.S. inflation data announcement which will shape views regarding the timing and magnitude of rate cuts by the Fed.
PPC // FY’23 results landed in line with management’s preliminary estimates, with pro-forma recurring FY’23 EBITDA at €1.5bn. Reported recurring FY’23 EBITDA settled at €1.29bn, reflecting 27% organic growth yoy. On a quarterly basis, Q4’24 EBITDA settled at €353mn (+15% yoy), boosted by €77mn from the Romanian operations. FY’23 net profit amounted to €428mn (incl. some c€200mn of “bargain purchase gains”), with management proposing a dividend of €0.25 (c2% div yield). Net debt (incl. leases) increased to €3.3bn (from c€2.4bn in 9m’23), following the completion of the acquisition of the Romanian assets. The current level of leverage implies a Net debt/EBITDA of 2.2x, remaining well below the 3.5x ceiling set by mgt.
Fourlis // Stronger finish to the year vs our estimates with Q4 EBITDAaL +10% yoy on better gross margins and greater opex leverage. Overall, FY23 saw revenues +7% yoy at €535m (+10% LFL for retail ops) and group EBITDAaL +22% yoy at €48.2m (with retail EBITDAaL at €35.9m, +26% yoy). FY23 net profit was flat yoy at €19.2m, as the effect from the higher asset revaluation was diluted by elevated tax, financials and minority leakage. Cash generation of retail ops was healthy, with the OpCo finishing on a €85m net debt position from €102.5m the previous year.
Economy // Govt to submit request for new RRF loan disbursement of €2.3bn by 20th April according to Kathimerini; application for the next €1bn installment related to grants will be submitted in May. Milestones related to loans have reportedly been fulfilled, but some of the preconditions attached to grants are still pending.
Piraeus Bank // As part of its MREL strategy, Piraeus Bank successfully raised €500mn through the placement of a senior preferred bond with 6 years maturity, callable in 5 years. The yield settled at 5.0% while the offers reached €1.45bn.
Banks // In ten out of the last fifteen securitizations, NPE servicers seem to have failed to meet their business targets, a situation only partially mitigated by NPE sales. Nonetheless, there is optimism within the industry that the implementation of the extrajudicial mechanism, alongside new regulations being devised by servicers, will partially address this issue. Additionally, the process of reintegrating cured loans back into banks is experiencing delays, with no transactions expected in 2024 due to the SSM’s concerns regarding the impact of high-interest rates on loan servicing.
ADMIE Holding // Amended its financial calendar; FY’23 results to be published on 17th April instead of tomorrow.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
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