JP Morgan: Αναβαθµίζει τον OTE σε overweight από neutral. Τιµή στόχος στα 17,30 ευρώ.
Eurobank: Ανεβάζει τον πήχη για ΕΧΑΕ. Σε τροχιά κυκλικής ανάκαµψης, αναµένοντας αύξηση των κερδών ανά µετοχή κατά 23% ετησίως ως το 2026. Τιµή-στόχο στα €6,6 από €6,4.
Axia: Τιµή-στόχο τα 27,4 ευρώ δίνει για τη ΓΕΚ Τέρνα. Eίναι προφανές ότι υπάρχει µεγάλη απόσταση µεταξύ αυτών που αποτιµά αυτή τη στιγµή η αγορά και της πραγµατικής εσωτερικής αξίας. Αναµένει τα EBITDA του 2024 να κινηθούν στα 384 εκατ. ευρώ.
Η βασική πιστοληπτική αξιολόγηση της Πειραιώς αναβαθµίστηκε σε Ba2 από Ba3, ενώ η αξιολόγηση του κύριου ανασφάλιστου χρέους της αναβαθµίστηκε σε Baa3 από Ba2.
Real Consulting: «Ok» για τη µετάταξη στην Κύρια Αγορά. Θα µπορούσε να ολοκληρωθεί προς το τέλος της φετινής χρονιάς ή στις αρχές της επόµενης. ∆ιανοµή µερίσµατος €0,04 /µετχ ενέκρινε η Γ.Σ.
Interlife: Αύξηση παραγωγής 8,82% το πρώτο εξάµηνο.
* Moody’s upgrades National Bank’s (ETE GA) long-term deposit rating by a notch to Baa2 (outlook stable)
* Moody’s upgrades Piraeus Bank’s (TPEIR GA) long-term deposit rating by a notch to Baa3 (outlook positive)
* Eurobank (EUROB GA) successfully completes €100m tap issue (priced to yield 4.806%) of €650m fixed rate senior preferred bonds due 2031
* Metlen (MYTIL GA) eyes strategic expansion in Central and SEE in the Energy sector, alongside €3.5bn large construction projects in Greece
* With the tender process still underway, Lamda (LAMDA GA) seals sale of 2 land plots (out of 5 in total – 50k sqm buildable area), unlocking hidden value for The Ellinikon
* Ellaktor EGM ok’s Helector’s (waste management unit) 94.4% stake sale to Motor Oil (MOH GA) at €114.8m, implying 8.2x trailing EV/EBITDA
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a fourth consecutive session, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 0.72% at 1,450.92 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.66%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.70% Banks Index: +0.40%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 114.0m, up from Friday’s EUR 55.5m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today.
Company Headlines
Moody’s upgraded National Bank of Greece
Moody’s Ratings upgraded the long and short-term deposit ratings of National Bank of Greece S.A. (NBG) to Baa2/P-2 from Baa3/P-3, its long-term senior unsecured ratings by two notches to Baa2 from Ba1, as well as the standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA of the bank to ba1 from ba2. The bank’s long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) were affirmed at Baa2/P-2 and its long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR Assessment) were affirmed at Baa3(cr)/P-3(cr). The news is positive and we reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 10.84/share.
Moody’s upgraded Piraeus Bank
Moody’s Ratings upgraded the long and short-term deposit ratings of Piraeus Bank to Baa3/P-3 from Ba1/NP, its long-term senior unsecured rating by two notches to Baa3 from Ba2, as well as the standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA of the bank to ba2 from ba3. The bank’s long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) were upgraded to Baa2/P-2 from Baa3/P-3 and its long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR Assessment) were affirmed at Baa3(cr)/P-3(cr), while its long-term senior unsecured MTN program ratings were upgraded to (P)Baa3 from (P)Ba2 and the subordinate (Tier 2) MTN program ratings were upgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)B1. The news is positive and reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 5.50/share.
Eurobank completed EUR 100m tap issue of EUR 650m of senior preferred bonds
Eurobank announced that it completed through a private placement with Banco Santander, a tap to the initial bonds of an aggregate principal amount of EUR 100.0m of its EUR 650m fixed rate senior preferred bonds due 2031 issued on 30 April 2024. The issue price of the new bonds is 100.324%, implying a yield of 4.806%. The new bonds will be listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange’s Euro MTF market.
METLEN (Mytilineos) to complete London listing in 1H25 (press)
According press METLEN’s Treasurer said yesterday that the company will complete the listing in the London Stock Exchange in 1H25, adding that despite the stock rally during the last years, the stock still trades at 8x in P/E terms, at a 50% discount vs. its international peers who trade at 12x. In other comment, METLEN’s management said that the company targets to further expand its integrated energy activities abroad, focusing in 6 countries, namely, Italy, Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and Austria.
Piraeus Financial Holdings to trade ex-dividend tomorrow
The stock will trade ex-dividend tomorrow (DPS: EUR 0.06315840, DY: 1.7%) and payment will commence on Tuesday 16 July.
HELLENiQ ENERGY trades ex-dividend tomorrow
HELLENiQ ENERGY will trade ex-dividend of EUR 0.60/share tomorrow (DY: 7.2%)
Jumbo to trade ex-dividend tomorrow
The stock will trade ex-dividend tomorrow (DPS: EUR 1.00, DY: 3.6%) and payment will commence on Tuesday 16 July.
OTE 1H2024 results out on 07 August
The company announced that it will report 1H2024 results on Wednesday 07 August, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a CC on the same day at 13:00 GR/11:00 London Time.
OPAP Share buyback
The company announced that it purchased from 1 to 5 July 48,311 own shares at an average price of EUR 14.737. The company now holds 8,882,893 shares or 2.40% of the total share capital.
ELLAKTOR’s EGM approves the sale of HELECTOR
During yesterday’s EGM, ELLAKTOR approved the sale of all the shares (94.4%) held by the company in its waste management arm, ΗELECTOR to Motor Oil for EUR 114.7m.
Real Consulting to trade ex-dividend on 29 August
The AGM of shareholders approved yesterday the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.04/share (DY: 1.1%). The stock will trade ex-dividend on Thursday 29 August. Shareholders also approved a share buyback program of up to 10% of shares outstanding (2.150.000 shares). The maximum price was set at EUR 5.00/share and the minimum at EUR 1.02/share. Finally, shareholders approved the transfer of shares to the main market of ATHEX from the Alternative.
Greek equities finished the day with modest gains of 0.7%, on a EUR 113m turnover, while the banking index was up 0.4%, with NBG recording -0.5% losses. Among top gainers, Titan and Hellenic Exchanges rose 3.8% and 3.6% respectively, followed by OTE +1.9%, Jumbo +1.8% and Helleniq Energy +1.8%. On red, Terna Energy slipped -1.8%, Fourlis was down -1.7%, whereas Cenergy marked a -1.6% drop and Metlen was down -0.9%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, the deficit of the trade balance for the period of January to May 2024 amounted to EUR 14.4m, marking a 15% yoy increase. The corresponding figure excluding oil products and the value of ships recorded a 11.1% advance, reaching EUR 11.2m.
BANKS
Moody’s upgraded NBG to Ba1 from Ba2 with the outlook remaining positive. Piraeus Bank was also upgraded to Ba2 from Ba3 with a positive outlook.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank announced the issuance of a EUR 100m MREL eligible bond yesterday with a yield of 4.806% via a private placement. The issue follows the significant interest in the EUR 650m fixed rate senior preferred bonds due 2031 and issued on 30 April 2024.
ELLAKTOR <ELLAKTOR GA>
The company announced that the AGM approved the sale of the total shares under its position in its subsidiary, Helector, corresponding to 94.44% of its issued share capital, to MANETIAL, a 100% subsidiary of Motor Oil. Expected.
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
AGM approved the dividend distribution of EUR 0.063/share. Ex-dividend date on July 10th.
PAPOUTSANIS <PAP GA>
The company released its 1H24 trading update, recording revenues of EUR 31.7m, marking a -1.4% yoy decrease. The decline was mainly driven by a slowdown in the Hotel Amenities (-17% yoy) and Third party (-10%) divisions, offsetting strong growth of c.20% yoy of Own Branded products. The Own Brands’ strong expansion came as a result of the robust development of Arkadi, which has already marked a 73% increase in sales by the entrance in the home-care category, while Specialty soap bases also marked a 9% yoy increase in sales.
We do highlight that 1H is not indicative of full year performance and management expects revenues in 2024E to exceed the levels of 2023. Our estimates for the year still stand at 10% revenue growth, considering the company’s partnership with a big multinational will be in full swing during 2H24.
Market Comment // The Greek market continued on an upward trajectory (+0.72%) for a 4th consecutive day on Monday, with the General Index closing at its intraday high of 1,450.92 points. Trading activity doubled vs Friday to €114m, albeit still below the 100-day moving average of €147m. Among gainers, Titan and EXAE both stood out, rallying >3.5%. Among other blue chips, OTE, Jumbo, ELPE, Piraeus, MOH, Optima and Alpha all advanced >1.5%, as did mid-small caps IDEAL and ADMIE Holding. On the negative side, Terna Energy, Fourlis, Papoutsanis and Cenergy all lost more than 1%, trailed by mild losses in Metlen, NBG, Thrace Plastics, Sarantis, ELHA, Eurobank, OPAP, Aegean and Epsilon Net. We see a mixed opening today as investors weigh political uncertainty in France amid rising risk-off sentiment while awaiting Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress today.
Banks // According to newmoney, BoG’s General Director of Prudential Supervision has stressed that there is no straightforward relationship between deferred tax credits (DTC) and dividend distribution, from a regulatory standpoint. As a reminder, the current regulation allows for the amortization of deferred tax credits through bank profitability until 2040. This approach aligns with banks’ plans to increase their dividend payouts to c50%. Furthermore, the official noted there are no significant differences in the risk profiles of the four major banks, and the strong profitability forecasts for the sector suggest that the likelihood of banks becoming loss-making again is low. This supports a more optimistic outlook for future dividend distributions, provided the regulatory environment remains supportive.
Piraeus Bank // Moody’s Ratings upgraded Piraeus Bank S.A.’s long- and short-term deposit ratings to Baa3/P-3 from Ba1/NP, keeping the positive outlook.
National Bank // Moody’s Ratings upgraded National Bank of Greece S.A.’s long- and short-term deposit ratings to Baa2/P-2 from Baa3/P-3, attaching a stable outlook (from positive).
Eurobank // In the context of its MREL strategy and following strong interest from institutional investors, Eurobank successfully completed yesterday a private placement of a €100m senior preferred bond, which will be consolidated with the bond issued in April 2024 (and due in 2031). The issue price of the new bonds was 100.3, implying a yield of 4.81%.
ATHEX // New report (Riding the cyclical wave) where we reiterate our positive view on ATHEX given the strong profit growth profile (23% EPS CAGR through to 2026e) underpinned by the cyclical recovery and the compelling valuation (at c40% discount vs foreign peers). These are further complemented by a c7% yield in 2024e, rising to c8% in 2025-26e. After raising slightly our 2024e, we have lifted our PT to €6.6, placing ATHEX at 13.2x 2024e EV/EBITDA, small discount vs peers.
Metlen // In a workshop held yesterday with journalists, management reiterated the Group’s intention to expand its vertically integrated model in electricity supply abroad, starting with Italy and followed by more countries in Southwestern and Central Europe. Additionally, management elaborated on the structure of the foreign listing (LSE), indicating it would be similar to that of CCH and Titan.
Papoutsanis // PAP provided a trading update for H1, revealing that sales dropped 1.4% yoy to €31.7mn, but with the Q2 run rate swinging to positive (+3.8%) following -7.2% in Q1. Against this background, mgt guided for improved H1 net profit compared to the €1.7mn recorded in the same period in 2023. Mgt also reaffirmed the guidance for top-line growth in 2023.
Real Consulting // Shareholders gave the green light for the listing of all common shares on the ASE main market in yesterday’s AGM. Management stated that preparatory actions are set to begin in September, with the move to the main market likely to take place within the Q4’24-Q1’25 window. All other items on the agenda were also approved, among which a dividend distribution of €0.04 per share (1.0% yield, ex-div August 29th) and a 2-yr share buyback program for a maximum of 2.15m shares (at a price range of €1.02 to €5 per share).
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