Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (09.04.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)

Άνοδο κατά 1,29% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1401,35 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 112,8 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές επέβαλαν την υπεροπλία τους από το ξεκίνηµα µε το Γ.∆. να κινείται µόνο σε θετικό έδαφος σε όλη τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίαση, µε οδηγό τον τραπεζικό κλάδο, από κοινού µε τη ∆ΕΗ και τους τίτλους του οµίλου Βιοχάλκο. Μετά δε από αρκετές διακυµάνσεις και γύρω στις 3µµ η κίνηση έγινε αδιάλειπτα ανοδική και ξεπέρασε τις 1400 µονάδες, κλείνοντας στις δηµοπρασίες λίγο χαµηλότερα από το ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό των 1403 µονάδων, µε τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται ανοδικά. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,370%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+2,68%)κατέγραψε κέρδη µε την Alpha (+4,28%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε η ∆ΕΗ (+4,76%), τα ΕΛΠΕ (+2,09%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (+2,22%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+3,30%), η Cenergy (+1,38%), η Βιοχάλκο (+2,50%), η Infoquest (+2,20%), η ΕΥ∆ΑΠ (+1,61%) και η ΕΧΑΕ(+1,74%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΕΕΕ (-0,57%), η ΜΟΗ (-0,66%), ο ΟΤΕ (-0,43%) και η Autohellas (-0,29%). Απολογιστικά, 80 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 23 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η αντίδραση του Γ.∆. από τις 1383 µονάδες και η υπέρβαση των 1400 µονάδων ήταν ανακουφιστική. Θα χρειαστεί ωστόσο ένα τουλάχιστο εβδοµαδιαίο κλείσιµο πάνω από τις 1414 µονάδες για να µπορέσουµε να ισχυριστούµε µε σχετική ασφάλεια ότι ολοκληρώθηκε η διόρθωση. Η ∆ΕΗ και ο Φουρλής ανακοινώνουν σήµερα τα ετήσια αποτελέσµατά τους.

Στουρνάρας: Κέρδος 3,5 δισ. για το δηµόσιο από τη στήριξη των τραπεζών. Στα €53,7 δις. το όφελος του δηµοσίου, στα €50,3 δις. οι καταβολές προς τις τράπεζες λόγωανακεφαλαιοποιήσεων.
ΤτΕ: Ιστορικό ρεκόρ στα περιθώρια κέρδους µέσα στην κρίση. Πολύ µεγαλύτερη από την αύξηση του κόστους η άνοδος των τιµών τη διετία 2021-2022,διαπιστώνει η κεντρική τράπεζα. Βιοµηχανία, εµπόριο και ξενοδοχεία-εστιατόρια οι «πρωταθλητές». ∆εν υπάρχουν περιθώρια εφησυχασµού. Αύξηση ΑΕΠ 2,3% και πληθωρισµό στο 2,8% περιµένει φέτος η ΤτΕ. Πρωτογενές πλεόνασµα 2,1% του ΑΕΠ και µείωση χρέους στο 152,3%. Μεγαλύτερη πρόκληση η µεταρρυθµιστική κόπωση. Στις 18 Απριλίου η αποκοπή του µερίσµατος, ύψους 0,6384/µετχ. µ.φ.

Η Pantelakis Securities αυξάνει την τιµή-στόχο για την Optima Bank στα 11 ευρώ από 10 ευρώ πριν,διατηρώντας τη σύσταση overweight. Καλύτερες προοπτικές κερδών σε σχέση µε τις άλλες τράπεζες. Mεγαλύτερη ανάπτυξη, ενόψει της εξοµάλυνσης των επιτοκίων.

Με τιµή-στόχο στα €8,3 και σύσταση “neutral” ξεκινά κάλυψη για τον τίτλο του ∆ιεθνούς Αερολιµένα Αθηνών η NBG Securities. H µετοχή είναι ένας καλός τρόπος για να ποντάρει κανείς στον ελληνικό τουρισµό, καθώς αναµένεται µέση ετήσια άνοδος της τουριστικής κίνησης κατά 2,8% έως το 2046.

Βγαίνει στις αγορές µε εξαετές οµόλογο η Πειραιώς. Η τράπεζα έδωσε mandate σε BofA, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan και UBS ως αναδόχους, να διοργανώσουν σειρά παρουσιάσεων στους επενδυτές.

Cenergy: Η Hellenic Cables ανέλαβε δύο συµβάσεις για έργα µεταφοράς ενέργειας στη Γερµανία. Θα είναι υπεύθυνη για τον σχεδιασµό και την παραγωγή υπογείων καλωδίων, την προµήθεια εξαρτηµάτων, τις εργασίες τοποθέτησης, συναρµολόγησης και τερµατισµού των καλωδίων.

Ελλάκτωρ: Due diligence στην ΗΛΕΚΤΩΡ από την Motor Oil. Ο όµιλος βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη διαδικασίας δέουσας επιµέλειας.

Υπερτριπλάσιο µέρισµα µοιράζει η Π. Πετρόπουλος. Θα προταθεί η διανοµή συνολικού ποσού €5,56 εκ., πάνω από το 70% των καθαρών κερδών της εταιρείας, µερισµατική απόδοση στο 8,6%.

*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* Piraeus Bank (TPEIR GA) to tap the market for €500m senior preferred notes

* Motor Oil (MOH GA) eyes Ellaktor’s (ELLAKTOR GA) waste management unit

* Cenergy (CENER GA) announces new underground cables project win by German transmission operator

* PPC (PPC GA) to release Q4/FY 2023 results today post-market close: we expect clean EBITDA flat yoy at €310m in Q4 (hit by €150m suppliers’ windfall tax), +31% yoy to €1,247m in FY (in line with guidance), reinstatement of cash dividends at €0.19/sh

* Fourlis (FOYRK GA): We see Q4 ex-REIC revaluations up 10% y-o-y to €7.3m as IKEA powers ahead, more than offsetting downbeat sporting goods

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX rebounded yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index soared by 1.29% at 1,401.35 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.39%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.84%, Banks Index: +2.68%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 111.3m, up from Friday’s EUR 103.8m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, with PPC, Cenergy Holdings and Hellenic Exchanges in focus.

Macro Headlines

Mr. Stournaras addresses the AGM of BoG

During his speech in yesterday’s AGM, Mr. Stournaras said that BoG expects Greek GDP to grow by 2.3% in 2024, (lower compared to previous the estimate of 2.5%), while inflation is projected to continue its downward path, dropping to 2.8% in 2023 (from 4.2% in 2023).

Sector Headlines

Bank of Greece | Financial sector outlook 2024

Bank of Greece expects that the outlook for banks’ fundamentals in 2024 will remain positive and that credit growth will pick up, but only gradually, given the estimated time lags from the lower interest rates. The challenges for the sector are a) the improvement of the capital base, as deferred tax credits (DTC) continue to account for a large share of regulatory own funds and b) the NPL ratio should be reduced towards the euro area average.

Market Headlines

ATHEX close to enter into a watch list-Hellenic Exchanges CEO

The CEO of Hellenic Exchanges stated yesterday that ATHEX is close to enter into a watch list by rating agencies. Press reports (naftemporiki) indicate that either MSCI or c S&P Dow Jones will put ATHEX on a watch list by June in order to upgrade it to the developed market status in the next 12-18 months. According to the new regulation that will be effective from 01 January 2025, the minimum market cap for a company to be listed on the main market is set at EUR 40.0m and the minimum free float at 15%, while the minimum free float for companies with a market cap of EUR <200m is set at 25%. Moreover, companies that generate a net loss could be listed on ATHEX, as long as they expect high growth rates and finally the tax certificates will be abolished.

Company Headlines

PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 11.89 | TP: 17.40

FY23e Preview – Targets delivered, we expect a EUR 0.20/share dividend

FY23e Results Preview | PPC is scheduled to release its 4Q/FY23 results today amc, with a conference call scheduled also for today at 18.00 local time (Greek participants: 30 213 009 600 and 210 946 0800, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA: +1 516 447 5632). All in, in FY23 terms, we expect turnover of EUR 10,129 (-10% YoY) and EBITDA (pro forma, accounting for full year contribution from Romania) is seen at EUR 1,492 or EUR 1,250m assuming 2.5months contribution (recall that the Enel Romania acquisition was concluded last October). Below the EBITDA line, assuming full year contribution from Romania, we end up with bottom line profits of EUR 408m and EUR 208m for the 2.5months contribution from PPC Romania. Finally, we expect the management to relaunch its shareholders remuneration policy, declaring a EUR 0.20/share dividend (1.8% dividend yield).

Piraeus Financial Holdings to issue new senior bond-Press

According to Bloomberg, Piraeus Financial Holdings has mandated global brokers to issue a new EUR-denominated senior bond with a maturity of six years.

Motor Oil confirms discussions with ELLAKTOR for the acquisition of HELECTOR

Motor Oil, in response to a relevant inquiry by the HCMC, said yesterday that it is currently conducting due diligence on ELLAKTOR’s waste management arm, HELECTOR, adding that it hasn’t submitted any offer for its acquisition yet.

CENERGY secures two cables contracts in Germany

CENERGY Holdings announced that Hellenic Cables, was awarded a contract by Amprion GmbH, for two 380 kV AC underground transmission systems in Germany, with production expected to commence in 2026.

Mytilineos to announce a significant business development this week (press)

According to Euro2day.gr and Mononews.gr, Mytilineos is set to announce a major business development in April, possibly this week, without providing any further details.

Bank of Greece to trade ex-dividend on 18 April 

Shareholders approved yesterday the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 0.6720 per share (DY: 4.4%). The stock is set to trade ex-dividend on 18 April and payment will commence on 25 April.

Petropoulos AGM set for 10 April

The company will hold its Annual General Meeting on Wednesday 10 April to approve among other the dividend distribution of EUR 0.80/share (up by 233% y-o-y) implying a dividend yield of 8.4%.

Kri Kri Financial Calendar 2024

The company will publish its FY23 financial results on Tuesday 16 April, the AGM will take place on Tuesday 9 July and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Friday 23 August with the dividend payment set for Wednesday 28 August.

Nova signed NDA with CVC Capital Partners-Press

Reportedly (newmoney), Nova signed an NDA with CVC Capital Partners. Recall that CVC controls a 10.0% stake in Public Power Corporation.

 
*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

Solid session for Athens, with benchmark index gaining 1.3% and investors’ participation exceeding EUR 100m. Banks outperformed, with index up 2.7% and Alpha Bank standing out, up 4.3%. On non financials, PPC Group recorded gains of 4.7%, followed by ELPE, +2.1% and MYTIL +1.4%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

Reportedly press the bank will tap the markets with a six-year bond. Mandate has been given to  BofA, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan and UBS. Expected bond rating at Ba2 and BB- from Moody’s and Fitch respectively.

CENERGY HOLDINGS <CENER GA, OW>

The company announced that its cables segment, Hellenic Cables, was awarded two contracts by Amprion GmbH for two 380 kV AC underground transmission systems in Germany. Manufacturing operations will take place in Greece, commencing in 2026.

News highlights the strong growth in the order book of the high margin cables division (backlog at EUR 2.5bn at end 2023), ensuring strong EBITDA growth over the next 3-5 years.

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

In a response to a query by HCMC, the company announced that the Company in the context of the implementation of its TARGET 2030 Strategy, it conducts on a continuous basis discussions entailing the prospect of collaboration with other companies active in economic sectors related to the four (4) major pillars (Refining Supply & Trading, Retail & Mobility, Renewable Energy, Alternative Fuels & Circular Economy). To this end, the Company conducts due diligence to the company under the name “HELECTOR S.A.”. For the avoidance of any doubt, the Company has not submitted until today any offer to ELLAKTOR S.A. for the acquisition of the stake the latter holds in “HELECTOR SA”. 

PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>

The Group is due to report FY23 numbers today after the close. We expect Group EBITDA to reach EUR 1.25bn and net profit at EUR 220m. A conference call is scheduled for today 18:00GR time. Conference call dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA: +1 516 447 5632 

FOURLIS GROUP <FOYRK GA>

Fourlis is due to report FY23 numbers today aft the close. A conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, April 10th, 2024, at 17:00 GR Time. Conference call dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA: +1 516 447 5632.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Trading in positive territory throughout yesterday’s session, the ASE index settled near intraday highs, at 1,401.4 points, recording gains of 1.29%. Trading activity remained at subdued levels though, with turnover amounting to €111mn, below the 100-day avg of €145mn. Banks led the rally with Optima and Alpha Bank surging >4%, followed by Piraeus Bank (+2.9%), National Bank (2.4%) and Eurobank (+1.7%). Among non-financials Kri-Kri popped 6.4% while PPC rallied +4.8%. These were trailed by Ideal (+3.8%) and Elvalhalcor (+3.3%), with Viohalco, Ellaktor, Quest, Fourlis and HelleniQ Energy all posting gains >2%. On the other hand, Motor Oil, Coca Cola HBC, OPAP, OTE and Autohellas finished mildly in the red. Today, EU futures point to a negative opening, echoing yesterday’s US market performance, with investors on edge ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data which is to shape rate cut forecasts.

PPC // Scheduled to release its FY’23 results today, after-market. We expect PPC to report pro-forma recurring FY’23 EBITDA in line with management’s preliminary estimate of €1.5bn, filtering through to a reported net profit of €170mn. On a quarterly basis we estimate a good end to the year with Q4’24e recurring EBITDA at €320mn (+4% yoy), mainly boosted by the strong performance of the distribution activity. Incorporating management guidance for a 35% payout, we estimate the proposed dividend distribution at €0.23 per share, translating to a c2% yield.

Fourlis // Q4 and FY23 results today post market close; we expect flattish FLF sales in Q4 and a small reduction in operating profits as weather-affected Sporting Goods dilutes resilient performance from IKEA. Overall, we expect FY23 sales to settle at €535m (+10% LFL, +7% reported) and EBITDAaL to shape at €45.9m (+16% yoy) thanks to strong price/mix in H1. Focus will mostly be on the granularity to be provided on the OpCo and mgt’s near term targets.

Piraeus Bank // According to press reports, Piraeus Bank is set to tap the market for a €500m 6-year senior preferred bond (MREL eligible) callable at 5-years, having already given the mandate to foreign banks.

Cenergy Holdings // Hellenic Cables was awarded a contract from Amprion GmbH for the supply of 380kV HVAC underground cables for the Borgholzhausen and Conneforde-Cloppenburg-Merzen interconnection projects in Germany. The cables will be manufactured in Hellenic Cables’ specialized land cable plant in Greece, with production scheduled to start in 2026.

Motor Oil – Ellaktor // In response to a relevant question submitted by the HCMC, both Groups officially announced that Motor Oil is currently conducting due diligence for the acquisition of Ellaktor’s 94% stake in Helector, however no offer has been submitted yet. As a reminder, Helektor is active in waste management and energy production from biofuels and RES, operating 4 biogas utilisation units (34MW) and 3 wind farms (8MW).

 

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.