Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (07.03.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)

Άνοδο κατά 0,15% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1433,04 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 119,3 εκ. ευρώ. Η συνεδρίαση χαρακτηρίστηκε από µεταβλητότητα σε ελεγχόµενο εύρος µέχρι 10 µονάδες (στο 1427 το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαµηλό, στο 1437 το ενδοασυνεδριακό υψηλό ηµέρας) µε το Γ.∆. να καταγράφει και τα δύο πρόσηµα. Στις δηµοπρασίες πάντως οι αγοραστές πέτυχαν την καταγραφή µικρών κερδών µε τη βοήθεια τραπεζικών κυρίως τίτλων. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,275%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,20%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε τη Eurobank (+1,73%) και την Alpha (+1,65%) να υπεραποδίδουν. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+2,21%), η Τενέργα (+3,33%), η Aegean (+0,79%) αλλά και η ΕΥ∆ΑΠ (+1,24%), η Optima (+2,46%) και η Austrian Card (+4%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η Helenin Energy (-1,61%), η ΜΟΗ (-0,51%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (-1,59%), ο ΟΤΕ (-1,18%), η Infoquest (-0,65%), η ΕΕΕ (-0,58%), η Βιοχάλκο (-1,32%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-5,83%), ο Τιτάν (1,15%) και η Cenergy (-0,92%). Απολογιστικά, 53 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη και ίδιος αριθµός µετοχών απώλειες. Στις 12µµ η ΕΛΣΤΑΤ ανακοινώνει τα στοιχεία για το ΑΕΠ του 2023, ενώ νωρίτερα η Alpha Bank ανακοινώνει τα µεγέθη της για το 2023. Το απόγευµα τη σκυτάλη παίρνει η Eurobank, η Βιοχάλκο και η Autohellas. Η υπερκάλυψη της συνδυασµένης διάθεσης του 27% των µετοχών Πειραιώς από το ΤΧΣ κατά περισσότερες από 10 φορές, προϊδεάζει για περαιτέρω ανοδική κίνηση του Γ.∆.

Optima Bank: ισχυρή επίδοση µε καθαρά κέρδη δωδεκαµήνου 2023 στα €103 εκατ. έναντι €42,4 εκατ. το 2022, +143%. Στο +47% οι καταθέσεις στα €3,2 δις., στα 2 δις. τα δάνεια (+633 εκ.). Στο 17,5% ο δείκτης κυρίων κεφαλαίων. Το προτεινόµενο µέρισµα ανά µετοχή ανέρχεται σε €0,44.

Cenergy: Οι πωλήσεις ανήλθαν σε 1,63 δισ. ευρώ (14% αύξηση σε ετήσια βάση) µε βελτιωµένα περιθώρια κέρδους τόσο στον κλάδο καλωδίων, όσο και στον κλάδο σωλήνων χάλυβα. Στο +56% η λειτουργική κερδοφορία στα €213,8 εκ., προς €230-€250 εκ. το 2024. Τα ενοποιηµένα κέρδη µετά από φόρους αυξήθηκαν σε 73,0 εκατ. ευρώ, επιτρέποντας τη διανοµή µερίσµατος ύψους 0,08 ευρώ ανά µετοχή, αυξηµένο κατά 60% σε σχέση µε την προηγούµενη χρήση. Στα €3 δις. το ανεκτέλεστο υπόλοιπο

Eurobank Equities: Τιµή-στόχος €17,5 για τη ∆ΕΗ. O µεγαλύτερος και ταχύτερα αναπτυσσόµενος παίκτης ΑΠΕ στην περιοχή της ΝΑ Ευρώπης.Axia: Τιµή-στόχος τα €24,8 για τη ΓΕΚ Τέρνα. Σύσταση «αγορά» και σηµαντική αύξηση της τιµής-στόχου λόγω Αττικής Οδού και Εγνατίας.

ΤΑΙΠΕ∆: Ξεκινά ο διαγωνισµός για το 51% του λιµανιού στο Λαύριο.

Επαφές Α∆ΜΗΕ µε Κύπρο και Ισραήλ για το έργο «Great Sea Interconnector».Το έργο της ηλεκτρικής διασύνδεσης Ελλάδας – Κύπρου – Ισραήλ θα σηµατοδοτήσει την ηλεκτρική διασύνδεση του νησιού µε το ευρωπαϊκό σύστηµα µεταφοράς.

Επιτόκιο 3,73% από 3,70% στα ετήσια έντοκα γραµµάτια. Συνολικές προσφορές ύψους €902 εκ., υπερκάλυψαν κατά 1,44 φορές.

Entersoft: Απέκτησε το 13,59% η Olympia Group.

Ε.Α. : Πράσινο φως στην εξαγορά της Κωστόβολος από τη ∆ΕΗ.

*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* Piraeus Bank (TPEIR GA): HFSF successfully concludes €1.35bn (8x over-subscribed) combined offering of its entire 27% stake at €4.0/sh, the top-end of price range

* Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA): Q4 beat on lower opex, 2024-25 guidance slightly above our estimates/consensus

* Cenergy (CENER GA): FY23 adj EBITDA +56% yoy to €214m (8% beat and 10% above guidance mid-point), strong FCF generation, 60% hike in dividend and above-consensus €230-250m FY24 EBITDA guidance

* Optima bank (OW): Q4/FY23 results beat and better FY24 outlook

* Eurobank (EUROB GA) Q423 results out today post market-close: we expect €308m clean net income

* HelleniQ Energy (ELPE GA) eyes 50% stake in Elpedison, reportedly

* Greece’s 4Q23 GDP seen increasing by 0.6%/1.8% q-o/y-o-y, thus driving growth in 2023 as a whole to 2.1%

* Greece sells 12-month T-bills, yield upped by 3bps to 3.73%

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX headed north yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.15% at 1,433.04 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +0.18%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.01%, Banks Index: +1.20%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 118.8m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 123.3m. We expect the positive momentum to continue in ATHEX today, with Banks and CENERGY in focus.

Macro Headlines

Greek 12 month T-bill raises EUR 812m at 3.73%

The Greek State raised EUR 812.5m yesterday from the issuance of 52-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 625m, while total bids reached EUR 902m (1.44x coverage ratio vs. 2.02x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 3.73% (vs. 3.70% in the previous auction).

Company Headlines

Optima Bank net profit up 143% y-o-y in 2023, proposed DPS of EUR 0.44

CP: EUR 7.90, Rating: Restricted, TP: Restricted 

2023 results | Reported net profit came in at EUR 103.0m (+143% y-o-y) in 2023 and RoTE widened to 29.0% from 21.8% in 2022. Management proposed the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.44/share (32% payout), implying a gross dividend yield of 5.6%. Net interest income reached EUR 142.2m (+134% y-o-y) in 2023 and NIM shaped at 4.39%. Fee income came in at EUR 32.1m (+45% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 193.0m (+100% y-o-y). OpEx reached EUR 56.9m, o/w one-off costs of EUR 5.9m. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 136.0m (+150% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions at EUR 9.9m (+48% y-o-y). Net Loans shaped at EUR ca2.46bn (+45% y-o-y), deposits at EUR ca3.2bn (+47% y-o-y) and assets at EUR ca3.9bn (+48% y-o-y). Group NPEs stood at EUR 11.0m and the NPE ratio squeezed to 0.45% from 0.49% in 9M23. Tangible equity increased to EUR 499.3m vs. EUR 317.8m in 9M23 and EUR 242.6m in 2022. FL CET1 and CAD ratios widened to 17.4% vs. 11.6% in 9M23.

Targets 2024: Management aims net profit to exceed EUR 124.0m (>20% y-o-y) in 2024 and to generate a ROTE in excess of 20% as well as dividend payout of more than 30%. It also targets net loans to grow by EUR 700m (+28% y-oy-) and deposits by EUR 900m (+28% y-o-y), cost to income ratio to be lower than 30% and the NPE ratio to be lower than 1.0%. Management stated on the CC that expects the deposit mix to remain the same in 2024, feels comfortable that it will continue to generate EUR ca500m of new loans every quarter, as was the case in the past 5 quarters and guided for a cost of risk of 55bp, fee income growth of 28% y-o-y in 2024 and OpEx growth of 10%-15% in 2024. Finally, management cited that the bank will remain active in the re-performing loans market, seeking for high quality credit.

Alpha Services and Holdings || CP: EUR 1.7830 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 2.10

4Q/FY23 results review

Optima view | Alpha Services and Holdings released earlier 4Q23/FY results, that beat Optima estimates but missed consensus estimate on higher than expected NPA loss. Nonetheless, asset quality dynamics improved substantially with the NPE ratio down 120bp q-o-q and NPE cash coverage to 45% from 41% in 3Q23. At first glance, the Business Plan targets announced earlier are higher than Optima and consensus estimates and we believe that they leave room for further upside, as we think that the NII assumptions are conservative. We reiterate our Buy rating on the stock.

2023 results first glance | Reported net profit came in at EUR 611m (+66% y-o-y) in 2023 and at EUR 121m (-35% q-o-q) in 4Q23, 7% above Optima estimate of EUR 112m and 23% below consensus estimate of EUR 157m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 1,653m (+41% y-o-y) in 2023 and at EUR 439m in 4Q23 (+1% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 437m and consensus estimate of EUR 440m. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 1,292m (+42% y-o-y) in 2023 and at EUR 379m (+16% q-o-q), 10% above Optima estimate of EUR 345m and 12% above consensus estimate of EUR 339m, on better than expected cost containment. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 308m (+6% y-o-y) in 2023 and to EUR 90m in 4Q23 (+24% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 90m and 11% above consensus estimate of EUR 81m.  The results were burdened by a NPA loss of EUR 75m in 4Q23, 15% lower than our estimate and 42% higher than consensus estimate. Group NPEs dropped to EUR 2.24bn and the NPE ratio squeezed to 6.0% from 7.2% in 9M23.

Business plan targets | Alpha targets normalized EPS to reach EUR 0.31/EUR 729m in 2024e, EUR 0.33/EUR 776m in 2025e and EUR >0.35/EUR >>823m in 2025e, above Optima and consensus estimates as well as aims an average dividend payout ratio of 45%, above Optima and consensus estimates. Tangible equity is expected to reach EUR 6.6bn in 2024e, EUR 6.9bn in 2025e and EUR 7.3bn in 2025e and RoTE to be shaped at 13% in 2024e, 13.5% in 2025e and to exceed 14% in 2026e.

HFSF public offering of Piraeus Financial Holdings shares completed yesterday

The public offering of the Piraeus Financial Holdings shares that HFSF holds (27% stake, 337,599,150 shares) completed yesterday. HFSF announced earlier that the offer price was set at EUR 4.00 per offer share. The CEO of HFSF stated that the public offering oversubscribed by 8.0x.

CENERGY Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 7.53 | TP EUR 8.10

FY23 Results: Strong performance driven by both segments, EBITDA profitability above our estimates, Net debt down by EUR 60.6m y-o-y despite increased capex, Backlog exceeds EUR 3.1bn by 2023 end. CENERGY to distribute dividend of EUR 0.08/share, in line with our estimate. Positive outlook positive for both segments, guides for EBITDA of EUR 230-250m in 2024e.

Facts: Cenergy Holdings released a strong set of 2023 results, with group turnover up by 314.2% YoY to EUR 1,628m on higher volumes, driven by the pipes segment, which continued the remarkable recovery through the year, adjusted EBITDA advanced by 56.3% YoY to EUR 213.8m (beating our call), while net income came at EUR 377m from EUR 60.4m a year ago. In 4Q23 terms, Cenergy recorded sales of EUR 458m (up by 20.4% y-o-u), EBITDA of EUR 68.8m (beating our forecast by 27%) and Net Profits of EUR 25.8m (58% up y-o-y). The order backlog exceed the EUR 3bn mark in 2023, setting a new high (with a EUR 79%/21% segmental split for cables/pipes) from EUR 2bn in 2022. FCF was positive at EUR 76m, driven by the increased profitability and WC release which more than offset the increased capex of EUR 138.4m (EUR 121.2m of which for the cables segment), hence lowering net debt by EUR 60.6m YoY to EUR 377.6m in 2023.

Cables: The strong growth of the cables projects (+26% y-o-y in revenue) and the solid demand for cables products in all regions (i.e. Central Europe, United Kingdom, Balkans, Southeast Mediterranean) drove segmental turnover and EBITDA adj. for the year up by 8.6% and 38.5% to EUR 1,047m and EUR 150.3m respectively. Additionally, several contract awards further increased segmental Backlog to EUR 2.5bn as of 31/12/2023, from EUR 1.35bn a year ago. It is noted that the EUR 121.2m capital expenditures of the cables segment mainly concerned a) the capacity expansion of the off-shores cables plant (EUR 82.6m), b) selective investments in the on shore cables plant in Thiva (EUR 18.8m), c) for the Bucharest plant (EUR 12.2m) and d) expenses of EUR 7.4m to support the construction of a submarine cables factory in the USA.

Pipes: Market conditions continued to improve in the steel pipes business, as demand for gas fuel transport projects remained strong due to high energy prices and the need for increased energy security in Europe (cf. geopolitical turbulence in Ukraine. In this context, segmental turnover and EBITDA adj. rose by 25.6% and 126.9% to EUR 581m and EUR 64.2m respectively. Segmental Backlog shaped at EUR 650m by 2023-end

Outlook: The cables segment momentum continues in both business units: demand for cables products remains strong and the cables projects portfolio is growing. With the expansion plan for the submarine cable factory in Corinth on track and most of that extra capacity already booked, Hellenic Cables is addressing the onshore business growth by (i) creating value in the Thiva plant through additional lines and equipment and (ii) planning a Centre of Excellence for low voltage cables in the industrial area of Eleonas (near its factory in Thiva), acquired during 2022. With regards to Pipes, CPW expects the gas fuel demand to keep on growing in the short-term, together with the other two “green energy pillars” (hydrogen and Carbon Capture & Storage), feeding into higher demand for large diameter steel pipes. That said, Cenergy Holdings expects an adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 230–250m for 2024. 

Dividend: With the support of the increased profitability, CENERGY declared a EUR 0.08/share 2023 dividend (DY: 1.1%, ex-date 25 June), in line with our estimate.

Conference call Today at 15.00 local time, Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632.

Eurobank Holdings || CP: EUR 1.9375 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 2.41

4Q/FY2023 results Preview

2023 results preview | Eurobank Holdings is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2023 results on Tuesday 07 March, post-market close and a conference call will follow at 18:00 Athens time/16:00 London time. Overall, we expect a strong finish to the year, driven by higher fee income and one-off gains. Balance sheet dynamics are expected to be in line with system trends in Greece, (i.e. higher performing loans and deposits) and asset quality dynamics to remain positive.

2023 results | We forecast reported net profit to be flattish on a yearly basis and to reach EUR 1,331m (EPS23e: EUR 0.36), well above November 2023 guidance of EUR >0.30. Recall that 2022 net profit bolstered by trading gains of EUR 716m and a one-off gain of EUR 230.5m from the sale of the Merchant Acquiring Business. In more detail, we forecast NII to soar by 46% y-o-y to EUR 2.16bn and fee income to grow by 3% y-o-y to EUR 540m, whilst non-recurring revenues to drop to EUR 40m vs. EUR 714m in 2022.  Hence, we estimate that operating income will rise by 1% y-o-y to EUR 2,740m. On the cost side, we project OpEx to advance by 14% y-o-y to EUR 976m, due to the consolidation of BNP Consumer Finance in Bulgaria and wage increases. Thus, we forecast that pre-provision profit will fall to EUR 1,764m (-5% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to reach EUR 353m (+28% y-o-y), assuming a CoR of 85bp, in line with management guidance.

4Q2023 | We project net interest income to shape at EUR 559m (+0.2% q-o-q, +25% y-o-y) on higher volume and loan rates and fee income to advance to EUR 137m (+3% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y). Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 696m (+1% q-o-q, +18% y-o-y) and operating income at EUR 706m (+0.4% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y). On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 304m (+32% q-o-q, +37% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to accelerate to EUR 99m (+9% q-o-q, +19% y-o-y). On top of that, we estimate income from associates (Hellenic Bank) to reach EUR 23.0m and a one-off gain of EUR 127m from the sale of 70% of Direktna in Serbia. All in all, we estimate reported net profit to reach EUR 351m (+18% q-o-q, +57% y-o-y) in 4Q23.

Optima view | We believe that investors will focus on the new business plan over 2024-2026 that will include the consolidation of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus and in particular on the evolution of net credit expansion on a group level, NII, fee income, OpEx, LLPs and time deposits cost and mix.

The Greek watchdog clears the acquisition of Kotsovolos by PPC  

The Greek competition authority approved as expected the acquisition of the Retailer Kotsovolos by PPC.

GEKTERNA commencement of trading of new 6m shares

GEKTERNA, following a relevant decision of the EGM, announced that as of 11 March, the 6,000,000 new company shares resulting from its share capital increase will commence trading, while at the same time the cancellation of an equal number of treasury shares and the consequent reduction of its share capital will be in effect.

Mytilineos’ EGM on 27 March

Mytilineos will hold an EGM on 27 March to approve the renewal of the company share buyback programme

Sector Headlines

Illegal gambling in Greece increased to EUR 1.7bn

According to a conference held by HGC, illegal gambling in Greece shows a significant increase, reaching EUR 1.7bn. Of this amount EUR 1bn has been directed to online games and EUR 700m to land based illegal games, while the survey claims that up to 900k Greek have participated in illegal gambling at least once in the last 12 months.

 
*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

TRADING SNAPSHOT

ASE index ended the day broadly flat, with turnover reaching a touch below EUR 115m. Good day for the banks, with index up 1.2% and Piraeus bank at +0.24% with books closed as of yesterday afternoon. Solid session for Terna Energy, up 3.3%, followed by GEK TERNA, +2.2%. On red, HELLENiQ Energy and OPAP down 1.7% and 1.6% respectively.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

PIRAEUS BANK <TPIER GA>

The offer price based on the results of the book-building process was set at EUR 4.0 per share. 

ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>

Alpha Bank reported this morning another very solid quarter and upbeat business plan targets, ahead of our and consensus expectations. The beat in 4Q23 (net profit of EUR 196m vs. ours of EUR 172m, consensus of EUR 187m) derives from lower than expected costs. The key business plan targets include an EPS of c.EUR 0.31 in 2024E, c.EPS 0.33 in 2025E and >EUR 0.35 in 2026E. The consensus range (and our estimate) is c.EUR 0.30 stable over the forecast horizon; thus, net profit target for 2026E is >15% ahead of consensus. The implied 2026E ROTE on net profits of >EUR 800m is c.12% or >14% excluding capital above management buffer. The average pay-out ratio is 45% with FL CET1 ratio reaching >17.5% by 2026E. The key assumptions in the targets an average 3M Euribor of 3.5% in 2024E, 2.6% in 2025E and 2.4% in 2026E, a conservative 4% CAGR in net loan growth and a deposit mix to 38% from 26% (beta to 27% from 15%). This leads to a reduction in NII of 5% in 2024E and an increase of 5% p.a. in 2025E and 2026E.

The management will host a conference call today at 11:00 CET. We expect a positive reaction in the shares following the strong results and guidance. The stock trades on a P/E of 5.8x on 2024E guidance, going to 5.1x on 2026E with dividend yields in the 8-9% range.

CENERGY <CENER GA, OW>

Cenergy Holdings reported a very strong 4Q23 with revenue growth of 20% yoy to EUR 458m, adjusted EBITDA growth of 63% yoy to EUR 69m and a net profit of EUR 26m (vs. EUR 16m in the same period last year). The 4Q24 a-EBITDA came in >40% above our forecast. As a result, the FY23 a-EBITDA came in at EUR 213.8m, above our estimate of EUR 193m and management guidance for EUR 190-200m. The solid beat mainly derives from the cables division, which recorded an a-EBITDA of EUR 150.3m, up 38% yoy (our forecast at EUR 138m). Another positive surprise from the 4Q23 numbers was the healthy free cash flow generation in 2H23, reversing the high working capital needs of 1H23. The year end net debt settled at EUR 377m, vs. EUR 527m in June 2023 and EUR 438m in Dec 2022.

Management provided a guidance for 2024E a-EBITDA range of EUR 230m to EUR 250m. This is well above our current estimate (EUR 204m) and reflects the substantial increase in the orderbook to EUR 3.0bn (from EUR 2.0bn in Dec 2022). The backlog is driven by the higher margin cables segment with a current orderbook of EUR 2.5bn.

The results and the updated guidance should please the market. The stock trades on a very reasonable c.7.5x EV/EBITDA on 2024E guidance. The management will host a conference call today (March 7) at 15:00 Greek time.

OPTIMA BANK <OPTIMA GA>

Optima Bank reported 4Q23 adj. net profit of EUR 33.8m (vs. EUR 29.9m in 3Q23). For the FY23 the adjusted net profit reached EUR 107.4m (EPS of EUR 1.46). The NII in 2023 increased by 134% to EUR 142.2m with PPI up 158% to EUR 141m. The strong growth in NII was driven by a 45% yoy loan growth and higher rates with NIM standing at 4.39%, well above sector averages. From 2023 net earnings the board will propose a DPS of EUR 0.44 (div yield of 5.7%). For 2024E the company provided guidance for a 22% yoy growth in net loans, a growth of 25% in deposits with a net profit of >EUR 124m (+20% yoy) on the assumption for a 3.0% 3M Euribor. This results in a ROTE of >20%. The pay-out ratio guidance stands at >30%.

The guidance for >EUR 124m net profit for 2024E is above current consensus estimates (EUR 118m according to Bloomberg). On the 2024E guidance the shares trade at 4.6x P/E and a P/TBV of c.0.95x. The dividend yield based on the 30% pay-out ratio guidance stands at c.6.6%. The discount to the four systemic banks is c.20% in terms of P/E. The stock is down 1.1% YTD vs. +18% YTD for the FTSE ASE Banks and the strong results should please the market. 

EUROBANK (EUROB GA, OW)

Eurobank will post 4Q23 results today after the market close. We expect another very strong quarter, driven by the solid NII, healthy fee growth and a stable COR. All in, we forecast a net profit of EUR 272m (Visible Alpha consensus at EUR 291m).

The management will host a conference call today at 18:00 local time (17:00 CET).  Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632. The focus will be on the business plan 2024-26 targets. On our estimates, we currently assume net profits close to the EUR 1.2bn range per annum up to 2026E (close to the 2023E levels).

AUTOHELLAS (OTOEL GA, OW)

Autohellas is due to report FY23 results today. In our numbers, we expect sales of EUR 966m (+26% yoy) with an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 165m (+17% yoy) and a net profit of EUR 73m, down 6% yoy higher financial expenses (due to higher rates).

The management will host a conference call on Wednesday, March 20 (time tbc).

GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>

GEK announced the admission and commencement of trading of 6m new shares of the company, as a result of the recent placement of treasury shares.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // In a volatile trading session on Wednesday, the ASE Index ended in positive territory, edging +0.15% higher, having traded within a tight range of -0.21% to +0.28%. Turnover shaped at €118m, in line with the 100-d moving average. Austriacard led the gainers with a rally of 4.0%, followed by Terna Energy (+3.3%) and Optima (+2.5%), with Gek Terna, Epsilon Net, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, and EYDAP also posting gains >1%. Conversely, Elvalhalcor experienced the largest decline shedding 5.8%, with Intralot, HelleniQ Energy, OPAP, Viohalco, OTE, TITC, and Profile also facing losses > 1%. EU futures are treading water this morning as investors parse Fed officials’ comments and brace for the ECB rate decision.

Piraeus Bank // The book-building process for the sale of HFSF’s 27% stake in Piraeus Bank, involving 337m shares, concluded yesterday, with HFSF announcing that it will not entertain offers below €4.00. Euro2day.gr indicates an oversubscription rate of >10x, equating to bids totaling €13bn, of which €10bn were at €4.00. The domestic book also saw strong interest, with subscriptions c€1bn, marking a 5x oversubscription. This robust interest has reportedly led the HFSF to consider increasing the domestic allocation to up to 20% from the initially intended 15%.

Alpha Bank // Alpha reported a stellar quarter, with Adj. Net Profit at €215m, above our (€170m) and consensus (€165m) estimate on lower-than-expected OpEx and higher non-core income. NII settled at €439m, +0.9% q/q, in line with our estimates and consensus, driven by higher rates, increased income from securities, subdued deposit beta (at 15%) and a strong credit expansion of €1.1bn. Adj. RoTBV in Q4’23 soared to 14.3% with FY’23 Adj. RoTE reaching 12.9%, surpassing the FY23 target of c11.5%. On the asset quality front, the NPE ratio settled lower q/q at 6.0% with coverage increasing to 45%.

Eurobank // Eurobank will report Q4 2023 earnings today, after market close, followed by a conference call at 16:00 UK time. NII and total revenues are set to increase further qoq shaping at €564mn (vs €558mn in Q3 2023) and €715mn (vs €703mn in Q3 2023) respectively as per Visible Alpha. On the other hand, Adj. net profit is poised to decrease qoq to €297mn vs €318mn in Q3 2023 on inflated and seasonally higher OpEx which will offset higher Core Income.

PPC // In our new report “Larger, greener, stronger” we incorporate PPC’s new business plan and its newly acquired operations in Romania, raising our 2024/25e EBITDA by 31/40% aligning with mgmt for FY’24e (EBITDA at €1.7bn, +13% yoy). On generation, we factor in accelerated RES development by 2026, eyeing 3.2GW of additions across the SEE region (c1GW lower vs guidance), while we also expect full retirement of PPC’s lignite units by the same year. In electricity supply, we expect benefits from the termination of the HV loss-making contracts and enhanced customer retention following the acquisition of Kotsovolos. Finally, distribution is poised to boost its RAB to €5.1bn (from €4.1bn currently) through a €2.4bn investment plan. Our updated estimates filter through to an increased PT of €17.5 (from €13.0 previously), placing the name at 7.8x 1yr fwd EV/EBITDA, namely at par with its higher priced peers which we believe is justified by PPC’s superior growth profile and accelerating shift towards RES. We reiterate PPC as one of our top picks in Greece.

Optima Bank // Optima Bank posted a strong performance for FY’23, with Adjusted Net profit of €107.4mn, up from €42.6mn in FY’22, leading to a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 29.0%, significantly above the 14.6% average of its Greek peers. This growth is largely attributed to a stronger Net Interest Income (NII), which surged by 134% yoy, bolstered by a 45% increase in loan balances, rate hikes, an increase in cash and securities, and moderate deposit repricing.

Cenergy Holdings // Finished the year on a high note with Group FY’23 revenue settling at €1.6bn (+14% yoy), while adj. EBITDA soared to €214mn (+56% yoy), landing 7% over the upper range of the guidance. The improved profitability translated to a FY’23 net profit of  €73m (+21% yoy), with mgmt proposing a dividend of €0.08/share (1% div yield). Management guides for a FY’24 adj. EBITDA between €230mn and €250mn, in symphony with our estimate (€243m).

Autohellas // Autohellas is scheduled to release FY’23 results today pre-market opening. We estimate double digit EBITDA growth (+15% yoy), leveraging on strong organic revenues (+26% yoy, or +16% organic) in 2023, though we anticipate elevated depreciation and net financial costs weighing on our net profit forecast, which is seen at €71m (just below the record 2022 €77.5m figure). We estimate a 2023e DPS of €0.66 share (div. yield 4.8%).

Mytilineos // Scheduled EGM for the 27th of March, during which shareholders will vote on renewing their approval and the terms of the share buyback program in place (potentially raising the upper end of the buyback range, as per mononews.gr).

Entersoft // Announced the suspension of the share repurchase program which was to commence yesterday; the decision was made in consideration of the potential impact on the share price following the recent announcements regarding changes in the company’s shareholder structure. As a reminder, the planned repurchase program pertained to c2% of the company’s share capital, with a price range of €2-12 per share and a duration of 24 months.

 

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