Άνοδο κατά 1,79% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1544,49 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 149,3 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν από το ξεκίνημα την υπεροπλία και τη διατήρησαν σε όλη τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίασης με το ΓΔ να κινείται μόνο σε θετικό έδαφος και τη μεταβλητότητα να φτάνει τις 22 μονάδες, με αποτέλεσμα το κλείσιμο στις δημοπρασίες να γίνεται στο υψηλό ημέρας. Με καταλύτες τις θετικές εξελίξεις για την Πειραιώς και τον Τιτάν και με οδηγό τις τράπεζες και πολλά blue chips. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,219% και οι ευρωπαϊκές αγορές κινήθηκαν ανοδικά με την ΒοΕ να μειώνει τα παρεμβατικά της επιτόκια κατά 25 μ.β. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+2,13%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με την Πειραιώς (+3,80%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε η ΔΕΗ (+3,49%), ο Τιτάν (+3,46%), ο ΑΔΜΗΕ (+3,49%)η ΕΕΕ (+3,74%), η ΕΥΔΑΠ (+2,51%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+2,38%), η Lamda (+2,19%), η Βιοχάλκο (+2,68%), ο ΟΤΕ (+1,12%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+1,42%) και η Aegean (+1,17%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε το ΔΑΑ (-1,51%) και ο όμιλος Ideal (-1,36%). Απολογιστικά, 77 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 17 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Με ένα εντυπωσιακό άλμα ο Γ.Δ. ξεπέρασε τις 1525 μονάδες και τις 1534 στη συνέχεια , θέτοντας έτσι τις βάσεις για αντιστροφή της βραχυπρόθεσμης τάσης, σε ανοδική. Επόμενος μεγάλος άθλος η υπέρβαση του πρόσφατου καθοδικού χάσματος των 1549 μονάδων. Ανακοινώνονται το μεσημέρι τα στοιχεία της αγοράς εργασίας των ΗΠΑ για τον Ιανουάριο.
Media Elval: Η τεχνητή νοημοσύνη πυλώνας ανάπτυξης για τη βιομηχανία και τους ανθρώπους της. Ο Γεράσιμος Μοσχόπουλος, Elval IT Senior Director, αναφέρθηκε στις στρατηγικές επενδύσεις που υλοποιήθηκαν την τελευταία δεκαετία σε εγκαταστάσεις, εξοπλισμό και τεχνολογία, οι οποίες ανήλθαν σε 800 εκατ. ευρώ.
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.79% at 1,544.49 units (FTSE Large Cap: +2.03%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.35%, Banks Index: +2.13%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 148.4m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 100.3m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today.
HEADLINES
Company Headlines
Titan America IPO successfully completed
Titan Cement announced the successful completion of its US IPO with the price set at $ 16/share. As a reminder, Titan America’s IPO consisted of 24m company shares plus an additional 3.6m shares (13%-15% of the US subsidiary share capital) and according to press reports was oversubscribed by >5x. As a reminder, Titan America is proceeding with an initial public offering of 24,000,000 common shares of its US subsidiary, with a 30-day option granted to the underwriters to purchase an additional 3,600,000 common shares to cover potential over-allotments. After the completion of the IPO, Titan Cement International SA is expected to own 160,362,465 common shares of Titan America, representing 87% of the total outstanding common shares (or 85% if the underwriters exercise in full their over-allotment option).
Attica Bank VES programme commences today-Press
Press reports (naftemporiki) indicate that the new Attica Bank group (Attica Bank, Pancreta Bank) commences a VES programme today with maximum compensation up to EUR 280k.
Energy regulator approves two energy storage projects for Motor Oil (press)
According to Energypress.gr, Motor Oil’s MORE gained two licenses from the energy regulator for the construction of two pump and storage projects in Aetoloakarnania and Veoia, of 413MW and 182MW capacity.
Thessaloniki flyover reaches 20% completion
The ministry for infrastructure and transportation announced that the construction of the Thessaloniki ring road, namely Thessaloniki flyover, is progressing as scheduled and has reached 20%, with estimated completion by 16 May 2027. As a reminder, the flyover road contract is budgeted EUR 373m and has been awarded to the METLEN-AVAX joint venture.
Piraeus in exclusive discussions with CVC about Ethniki Insurance
Piraeus Financial Holdings announced that it has agreed to enter into exclusive discussions with CVC Capital Partners regarding the potential acquisition by Piraeus of a 70% stake in Ethniki Insurance for EUR 469.0m (1.1x P/TBV23). Based on the above, the proforma impact on Piraeus’ capital position is estimated at approximately 150bps as of September 2024. This impact translates into a capital ratio with a comfortable Pillar 2 Guidance buffer of more than 200bps. Piraeus intends to pursue the potential adoption of the Danish Compromise in relation to the prudential treatment of its possible participation in the share capital of Ethniki Insurance, which, if attained, would reduce the capital effect of the Potential Transaction to below 100bps. Ethniki Insurance is the leading composite insurer in Greece, covering the whole spectrum of insurance products with a c.14% market share (c.17% in life / c.11% in non-life) and EUR 0.8bn Gross Written Premiums in 2023. The company reported a profit before tax adjusted for non-recurring items of approximately EUR 100.0mn in 2023 and also had EUR 4.0bn total assets and EUR 0.4bn shareholders’ equity. The company’s network extends throughout Greece and consists of c.130 Sales Network Offices with more than 1.6k Corporate Network Insurance Agents, 1.1k Collaborating Insurance Agencies and c.135 Collaborating Insurance Brokers, supported by a network of 6 branches, as of 2023. The move is positive since it does not have a negative impact on capital adequacy and does not change the remuneration policy and is in line with Piraeus strategy to boost non-interest income. The positive short-term impact will be the acceleration of top line via the increase in fee, insurance and trading income (from the bond portfolio), whilst the positive medium-term impact will derive from cost synergies. On the flipside, the climate change and the frequent physical calamities pose a downside risk to profitability as was the case in 2023 (net loss of EUR 29.3 from the damages in Thessaly). Piraeus is trading 0.74x P/TBV25e, at 29% discount to EU peers, despite its higher RoTE profile (13.8% vs. 12.9% of EU banks) and is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 6.20/share (Target M.Cap: EUR 7.75bn), offering a hefty 41% upside potential.
Trade Estates changing in voting rights
Trade Estates announced that on 4 February Latsco Hellenic Holdings Sarl aquired 6,025,000 shares witch corresponds to 5.0% of the total share capital. As a result, Latsco Hellenic Holdings now owns 9,780,869 shares or 8.11% of the total share capital.
Banks led market’s gains on Thursday, with the ASE Index gaining 1.8% on the day, following a steady upward trajectory, with the daily trading value at EUR 137m. The banking sector finished 2.1% higher, propelled by Piraeus Bank’s 3.8% gains, Eurobank and Alpha Bank both up c.2.3% and NBG rising c.1%. All major market movers finished on green territory, with PPC standing out gaining 3.5%, Titan and OPAP both recording a c.3.4% rise and GEK Terna posting 1.4% gains. Moreover, Jumbo recovered from Wednesday’s pressures, ending 1% higher, followed by Metlen +0.7%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Piraeus Bank announced that it entered into exclusive negotiations with CVC regarding the acquisition of a 70% stake in Ethniki Insurance for EUR 469m. The capital impact is estimated at c.150bps (as of Sept 2024) and Piraeus intends to purse potential adoption of the Danish compromise which, if attained, would lower the capital impact to below 100bps. Under the current framework, Piraeus will deduct the EUR 469m directly from capital levels while under the Danish compromise the price and the goodwill will be added to RWA, weighted at 250%. Ethniki Insurance is the largest insurance company in Greece with a c.14% market share (c.17% in life and c.11% in non-life), reported EUR 0.8bn gross written premiums in 2023, EUR 0.4bn equity and c.EUR 100m in recurring pre-tax profits.
The price announced implies a multiple of c.1.5x P/BV on 2023 numbers and a P/E (recurring) of c.8.5x. The transaction highlights diversification of Piraeus’ revenue base via a strong addition in fees, the potential for tapping a 1.5m customer base, the leading market shares of Ethniki Insurance in a growing market with low penetration levels and the opportunity to restructure the business (in view of volatile bottom line of Ethniki Insurance over the past few years). There is still pending information that is needed to assess the exact financial impact of the transaction (e.g. financial data for 2024, the potential long-term ROE of Ethniki Insurance, information regarding the long-term agreements between Ethniki Insurance and NBG and whether the 10% NBG stake is part of the agreement). In terms of capital, the FL CET1 on our 2025E numbers will be closer to c.13.5% (from c.15%) or c.14.2% with the Danish Compromise. In our view this is a comfortable buffer not to affect our dividend assumptions (pay-out ratio of 35% in 2024 and 50% thereafter).
TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>
Trade Estates announced that following the placement, Latsco Hellenic Holdings stake in the company increased to 8.1% (c.9.8m shares).
TITAN <TITC GA, OW>
Books on the IPO of Titan America closed yesterday, with an oversubscription of c.5x, according to press reports. The new shares will start trading on February 7. The offering price was set at USD 16/share , implying a market cap for Titan America of USD 2,949m and an EV/EBITDA of 9.0x on our 2024E. In the IPO Titan America issued 24m shares (excluding 3.6m over-allotment option), of which 9m are new shares and 15m existing shares. As a result, the total proceeds stand at USD 385m (USD 136.8m for Titan America and USD 228m for Titan Cement International).
At current price levels for Titan Cement, the IPO price implies a value for the remaining part of the business at an appealing c.3.5x on 2024E. The group net debt post transaction will drop to c.EUR 280m with the net debt to EBITDA at a low c.0.5x, leaving room to boost growth via new cap ex plans or providing space for a higher dividend.
Market Comment // Greek stocks mirrored the positive momentum across EU markets, with the ASE General index closing +1.79% higher on Thursday at 1,544.49 points (intraday high). Trade activity rebounded to €148m by the close, in line with both the 100-day MA of €154m and recent levels. Piraeus Bank (+3.80%) and CCH (+3.74%) set the pace for gainers, followed by PPC, ADMIE Holdings, Titan Cement and Quest Holdings (on >3% gains), while Noval Properties, Viohalco, OPAP, Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Lamda Development all recorded gains >2%. On the downside, AIA (-1.51%) and IDEAL Holdings (-1.36%) were among the few names on notable losses. Global futures indicate a muted opening today as markets await key US labor market data, which could shape the country’s stance on imposing a new round of tariffs.
Piraeus Bank // Piraeus announced that it has agreed to enter into exclusive discussions with CVC regarding the potential acquisition of a 70% stake in Ethniki Insurance for €469mn, implying a total valuation of €670mn (close to our estimate of €666mn) and a 2023 P/E of 8.5x (2023 after -tax recurring profits €78m). The capital impact, including the capital deduction, is estimated at 150bps (EEe at 140bps for a 70% stake), while under the Danish Compromise, it is expected to be below 100bps (EEe at 50bps-70bps for a 70% stake). Post the completion of restructurings, the deal appears EPS-accretive with an ROI of approximately 12% (on recurring profits of c€78mn), close to Piraeus’ sustainable RoTE, even before considering synergies. Additionally, it further diversifies revenue streams, with non-NII revenues currently contributing approximately 24% of total revenues, targeting a level closer to 30%. Ethniki Insurance remains a restructuring case, which likely explains why Piraeus retained CVC with a 20% stake—not only to mitigate the capital impact but also to ensure a smooth transition. Once the restructuring is completed, full consolidation is expected.
Titan Cement // The IPO for Titan America in the NYSE concluded yesterday, with the oversubscription reported by the press at >5x. Titan Cement International announced that the price of Titan America settled at $16/share with Titan Cement International along with its US subsidiary cumulatively raising at least $364mn. Trading on the NYSE commences today, with the offering scheduled to close on Monday 10th February.
ADMIE Holding // Yesterday’s meeting between the Greek and Cypriot energy ministers signalled progress in addressing Cyprus’ concerns over the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnection. A letter from ADMIE and the Greek government assures that ownership and management will transfer to the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) once Cyprus joins as a shareholder, though EU certification must come first.
Trade Estates // Latsco owns 8.11% in Trade Estates (9.8m shares), according to an official announcement, following the acquisition of 6m shares (5% stake).
