S&P: Αναβάθµισε την Alpha Bank σε ΒΒ+ µε σταθερό outlook. Σύµφωνα µε αναλυτές του οίκου, η πρόσφατη έκδοση οµολόγου AT1 ενίσχυσε την κεφαλαιακή επάρκεια, η οποία βρισκόταν ήδη σε θετική τάση χάρη στη βελτιωµένη λειτουργική απόδοση της Τράπεζας.
Απόδοση 2,82% στα ετήσια έντοκα γραµµάτια. Το επιτόκιο υποχώρησε από το 3,34% στην έκδοση Ιουνίου. Υποβλήθηκαν συνολικές προσφορές ύψους €916 εκ., που υπερκάλυψαν το ζητούµενο ποσό κατά 1,83 Φ.
ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.71% at 1,435.79 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.81%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.08% Banks Index: -1.05%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 98.5m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 85.8m. We expect the international markets to set the tone in ATHEX today, with Jumbo in focus.
Macro Headlines
Greek 12-month T-bill raises EUR 600m at 2.82%
The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 52-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 916m (1.83x coverage ratio vs. 2.29x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.82% (vs. 3.34% in the previous auction).
Sector Headlines
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the credit ratings of the systemic banks
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the credit ratings of the four systemic banks and affirmed the positive outlook. In specific, Fitch upgraded Eurobank and National Bank of Greece to ‘BB+’ from ‘BB’, as well as Piraeus and Alpha Bank to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘. The news is positive for the sector.
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – August 2024
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share dropped to 45.1% in August 2024 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 129.83/MWh, down by EUR 5.4/MWh m-o-m and up by EUR 20.5/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 6,128/GWh, up by 11.1% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 14.92% (16.63% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 9.53%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.54% and MOH’s NRG with 5.33%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in August 2024 rose by 0.3% m-o-m to 54.9%, well above the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 38% of total (vs. 40% in July), Natural Gas follows with 36% (vs. 36% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 5% (5%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 4% (5%) and 4% (4%) respectively and finally, Imports 12% (10%).
Company Headlines
S & P Global Ratings upgraded the credit rating of Alpha Bank
S & P Global has upgraded Alpha Bank to ‘BB+’ from ‘BB’ with a stable outlook.
HFSF plans to dispose a 10%-13% stake in NBG by early October-Press
According to Reuters, HFSF plans to sell a stake between 10% to 13% in National Bank of Greece by early October. The same reports suggest that decisions on the exact size of the stake and the timing of the sale will be made next week. Recall that HFSF sold a 22% stake (201,237,334 shares) on 17 November 2023 at EUR 5.30/share and now holds 18.39% or 168,231,441 common shares. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 10.84/share.
Attica Bank new EGM on 25 September
Attica Bank has called for a new EGM on Wednesday 25 September at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve 1) the reverse split of existing shares (50.014.177) by merging 100 shares to 1 and the increase of the nominal value to EUR 5.00/share from EUR 0.05, 2) the reduction of the share capital by EUR 2.626.687,80
through a reduction of the nominal value of each share from EUR 5.00 to EUR 0.05, with the aim of formation of a special reserve, 3) the increase of the share capital by EUR 17,973,468 with the possibility of partial coverage, by issuing up to 359,469,360 new common shares of a nominal value of EUR 0.05 each with payment in cash, and disposal through a public offer and with preemption rights in favor of the existing shareholders at an offer price of EUR 1.87 per share and 4) the issuance of up to 359,469,360 warrants with the possibility of partial coverage, which will be offered to participants of the bank’s share capital increase, excluding the pre-emption right of the existing shareholders. In other news, Attica Bank also announced that the new 5,557,131 common resulted from the share capital increase of Attica Bank following the merger by absorption of Pancreta Bank, will commence trading on 12 September.
Jumbo sales increased by c. 8% y-o-y in August
Jumbo announced yesterday that August sales increased by c. 8% y-o-y and management repeated the estimate for sale growth in 2024 up to c. 4% and profitability in the same levels of FY23. Management stated that transit of goods through Suez Canal has yet to normalize and the supply chain issues are still impacting the company. In August, sales in Greece increased by c. 7% y-o-y, sales in Cyprus increased by c. 3% y-o-y, sales in Bulgaria increased by c. 9% y-o-y, while sales in Romania increased by c. 11% y-o-y. In addition, in 8M24, Group sales increased by c. 7% y-o-y, with Greek sales increasing by c. 7% y-o-y, Cypriot sales increasing by c. 1% y-o-y, Bulgarian sales increasing by c. 9% y-o-y and Romanian sales increasing by c. 12% y-o-y. Management announced a new 2 year buyback programme of up to 10% of the total share capital with a maximum price of EUR 27.2/share. The tension in the Middle East will continue to impact the company, but we believe that management is rather conservative on FY24 sales growth, considering that Jumbo is already showing sales growth of c. 7% in 8M24 and is also operating a wider store network in Greece and Romania in 2H24 compared to last year.
Jumbo EGM on 26 September
Jumbo announced that will hold an EGM on Thursday 26 September to approve a new 2-year share buyback programme of up to 10% of the total share capital and a price range of EUR 1.00 to EUR 27.20 per share.
OPAP 2Q24 Conference Call highlights
During yesterday’s conference call, OPAP said that a) digital strategy execution reached online to contribute 30% of total GGR, recording all-time high, b) Eurojackpot continues its upward trend, c) 82% of the share buyback program have been completed, d) virtual games portfolio further expanded, e) Free2play games boosting engagement and attracts more players, while online casino enriched offerings, e) after revamp draw based game GGR increased by 42% f) ιn Cyprus the license renewal contains the same portfolio but the management is looking for possible options to add more games.
Fourlis to lower its participation in Trade Estates below 50% by 2024-end (press)
According to Capital.gr, during yesterday’s conference call of Trade Estates, the management said yesterday that Fourlis will proceed with a private placement of 13%-14% of its 63.6% stake in Trade Estates, aiming to lower its participation <50% before 20245-end, so as to stop consolidating TE’s financials under Fourlis Group.
Quest Holdings 1H24 results
Quest Holdings announced its results for 1H24. In more details, sales reached to EUR 620,1m vs. EUR 544,0m in 1H23, posting a y-o-y increase of c.14%. EBITDA amounted to EUR 41,6m vs. EUR 39,0m in 1H23, up by c.6.7% y-o-y, with EBITDA margin at c.6.71%, while earnings after tax decreased to EUR 20,5m vs. EUR 21,1m in 1H23, posting a y-o-y decrease of c.3.1%. Net debt increased by EUR 14,9m and reached to EUR 28,3m vs. EUR 13,3m, recording a y-o-y increase of c.111.7%.
The ASE Index finished -0.7% lower, on a EUR 98m turnover, while banks slipped -1%, with NBG and Eurobank down -1.9% and -c1% respectively. OTE stood out rising 1.2%, Cenergy and Sarantis were up 0.8% and 0.75, whereas Terna Energy ended flat. On red, PPC and Metlen marked a -2% decrease, GEKTERNA was down -1.6%, followed by Titan -1.2% and Motor Oil -0.9%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
EU Commission announced that Greece has met the requirements for the disbursement of EUR 1.0bn from RRF grants.
BANKS
Fitch upgraded all the four systemic banks yesterday with Eurobank and NBG at BB+ from BB and Alpha and Piraeus at BB from BB-. The outlook is positive on all banks.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
S&P upgraded Alpha by one notch to BB+ with a stable outlook following the issuance of an AT1.
JUMBO <BELA GA,OW>
Jumbo announced August sales for the group increased by 8% yoy, with 8-month sales increasing 7% yoy. On regional breakdown, for the month of August, Greek sales stood 7% higher yoy, same with 8month trend. Cyprus sales came in 3% higher yoy with 8-month sales at +1% yoy. Both in August and for the period Jan-Aug sales in Bulgaria increased 9% yoy. In Romania, August sales increased 11% yoy, while for the period Jan-Aug network’s sales rose 12% yoy (including e-store). EGM schedule for 26 September to approve a two-year share buyback program (range EUR 1.0-27.2/share). In the published statement, management reiterated guidance of FY24 sales growth of 4% with flat profitability yoy.
Performance is fully in line with our forecasts for the year, calling for 7.3% yoy growth in sales. Since May, the stock is down 23% on negative sales trend in June-July also attributed to geopolitical tensions in Suez Canal weighing on supply chain. In our published note last week, we have finetuned our model and have upgrade the stock to Overweight, on the back of defensive sales performance and strong balance sheet position, with the stock offering an attractive entry point, in our view.
TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>
During the conference call, management confirmed the FY24 guidance for Gross Rental income at EUR 33-35m, a-EBITDA up to EUR 26m and FFO up to EUR 12m, while reiterating the possibility of outperforming these numbers. This comes as the 1H24 numbers represented c53% of the full FY24 target for Gross rental income and a-EBITDA and c64% of FFO respectively. From a geographical perspective management noted the company’s interest in growing its portfolio in Bulgaria, seeking opportunities in the next 2-3 years, while also examining the Romanian market for acquiring targeted properties in the long term, possibly after 2027. Moreover, during the call Fourlis group reiterated its intention for selling 13-14% of its total stake (63.6%) in Trade Estates before year-end.
Market Comment // The Greek market traded in negative territory throughout Wednesday’s session, mirroring the performance of international equity indices. The ASE managed to recover though some of its early losses towards the end of the session, closing 0.7% lower at 1,435.8 points. Trading activity picked up slightly, with turnover rising to €98mn (+4%), but remaining below the 100-day average of €121mn. Among blue chips, Quest Holdings declined by 2.1%, followed by PPC (-2.0%) and Metlen (-2.0%), while NBG (-1.9%), GEK Terna (-1.6%), Autohellas (-1.6%), and Viohalco (-1.6%) also experienced significant losses. Additionally, Alpha Bank (-1.3%), Titan Cement (-1.3%), PPA (-1.1%), Thrace Plastics (-1.0%), and Fourlis (-1.0%) also finished in the red. On the other hand, Profile (+3.1%), Optima Bank (+1.5%), HTO (+1.3%), and ADMIE Holding (+0.9%) were among the few gainers. Today, negative sentiment is likely to persist, as investors maintain a risk-off stance ahead of U.S. data that will shape perceptions about the strength of the U.S. economy.
Jumbo // Positive August trading update with monthly sales run rates accelerating to +8% vs +2% in July, bringing the ytd growth to +7% (although mgt reiterated the same underwhelming outlook for the remainder of the year). Most importantly, mgt announced a 2-year buyback program (EGM on 26th Sep) for up to 10% of the share capital at a max price of €27.2.
Banks // Fitch upgraded yesterday the long-term issuer ratings of National Bank and Eurobank S.A. to BB+ from BB (one notch), reiterating the positive outlook. Similarly, Alpha Bank S.A. and Piraeus Bank were upgraded to BB from BB- (one notch), with a positive outlook attached.
Quest // Quest reported a strong set of Q2 results with revenues and EBITDA shaping +4-5% above our forecasts. Group Q2 EBITDA rose 18% yoy to €23m on 23% sales growth, primarily driven by double digit revenue growth in Commercial activities and IT services, both better than we had expected. H1 revenues increased 14% to €620m while EBITDA rose 7% yoy to €41.6m. Quest reiterated its forecast for mild growth in group sales and profitability in FY24, underpinning our FY’24e for +8% EBITDA growth.
Attica Bank-Pancreta Bank // Following the completion of the merger, Attica Bank called an EGM on 25th September for approval of a SCI of €672mn by issuing up to 359.5m new common nominal shares, to be paid in cash, at a price of €1.87/share, with preemptive rights for existing shareholders. This will occur simultaneously with a reverse stock split of the existing shares at a ratio of 100:1.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
