Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (05.02.2025)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Άνοδο κατά 0,88% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1520,82 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 172,1 εκ. ευρώ. Οι πωλητές αποπειράθηκαν στο ξεκίνημα να πιέσουν το ΓΔ. Όμως, μετά το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαμηλό των 1513 μονάδων, οι αγοραστές ανέκτησαν την υπεροπλία παρά τη μεταβλητότητα πέτυχαν να οδηγήσουν το ΓΔ σε ανοδική πορεία, καταγράφοντας το υψηλό ημέρας λίγο πριν το κλείσιμο. Με οδηγό τραπεζικές μετοχές (Πειραιώς, Alpha) και πολλούς δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους (Jumbo, ΑΔΜΗΕ, ΟΠΑΠ, κ.α.). Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,274% με τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται ανοδικά. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με την Πειραιώς (+2,58%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε η ΔΕΗ (+1,01%), η ΕΕΕ (+1,18%), τα ΕΛΠΕ (+1,15%), η ΕΥΔΑΠ (+0,84%), το Jumbo (+2,19%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+1,47%), η Κύπρου (+1,63%), ο ΑΔΜΗΕ (+2,49%) αλλά και η Αττικές Εκδόσεις (+9,56%) με την Αττικής (+5,88%) από τη μικρή και τη μεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στα αξιοσημείωτα της συνεδρίασης, 34 πακέτα αξίας 29 εκ. ευρώ για την Trade Estate (+0,84%). Απολογιστικά, 73 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 27 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η αναστολή της εφαρμογής των αμερικανικών δασμών σε Μεξικό και Καναδά για έναν μήνα, ανέκοψε την πτωτική πορεία των αγορών. Ο Γ.Δ. αντέδρασε ανοδικά από τη στήριξη που παρέχει η τοπική κορυφή των 1505 μονάδων. Άνοδος στη Wall Street με τεχνολογική στήριξη με αύξηση πάνω από 1% για τον Nasdaq λόγω της ώθησης από το ράλι 24% της Palantir, εξέλιξη που αποτελέσει οδηγό για συνέχιση της ανοδικής κίνησης και στο Χ.Α.
Trade Estates: Latsco Family Office, Autohellas , εγχώριοι και ξένοι επενδυτές απορρόφησαν 19,28 εκατ. μετοχές της ΑΕΕΑΠ. Με discount πάνω από 40% η τιμή διάθεσης (1,5 ευρώ ανά μετοχή). Πέτυχε την αποενοποίηση η Φουρλής.

Τέσσερις νέες Venture Capital επενδύσεις από τον όμιλο Titan ύψους €40 εκ. Ο Όμιλος προχώρησε σε επένδυση στη C2CA Technology, startup που ειδικεύεται στην ανακύκλωση και αναβάθμιση απορριμμάτων σκυροδέματος και τις Concrete.ai, Optimitive και Fifth Wall.

Eurobank: Εγκρίθηκε η εκταμίευση της 8ης δόσης του Ταμείου Ανάκαμψης. Στα €2,2 δισ. οι υπό διαχείριση πόροι για την τράπεζα. Συμμετέχει ήδη στη χρηματοδότηση 87 επενδυτικών σχεδίων, συνολικού προϋπολογισμού €6,9 δισ. στη χώρα.

Attica Bank: Τον Κων. Ηροδότου προτείνει για πρόεδρο η βασική μέτοχος. Τον πρώην διοικητή της κεντρικής τράπεζας Κύπρου και μέλος της ΕΚΤ προτείνει για πρόεδρο του διοικητικού συμβουλίου της τράπεζας η Thrivest Holding.
Fitch Solutions: Οι προοπτικές για τον ελληνικό τραπεζικό τομέα είναι θετικές για το 2025, με ευνοϊκές τάσεις όσον αφορά την εξέλιξη του ισολογισμού, τη χρηματοοικονομική ευρωστία και το ανταγωνιστικό τοπίο. H αύξηση των δανείων θα παραμείνει θετική, αντιστρέφοντας μια δεκαετή τάση συρρίκνωσης των ισολογισμών, κυρίως λόγω του εταιρικού δανεισμού και με αυξανόμενη συνεισφορά από τα νοικοκυριά.
*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.88% at 1,520.82 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.92%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.95%, Banks Index: +1.00%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 170.8m, down from Monday’s EUR 182.8m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today.

Sector Headlines

Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans squeezed by 6bps m-o-m to 5.21% in December 2024 and the average interest rate on new production of deposits narrowed by 3bps m-o-m to 0.45%. The drop in the average interest rate on new loan production by 6bps m-o-m is attributed to lower interest rates on housing (-29bps m-o-m) and on business loans (-13bps m-o-m). Thus, the interest rate spread for new production squeezed by 3bp m-o-m to 4.76%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread squeezed by 24bps m-o-m to 5.01%.

Company Headlines

Motor Oil and GEKTERNA in talks for the acquisition of HERON (press)

According press citing unconfirmed market rumors, Motor Oil is in talks with GEKTERNA for the acquisition of HERON, the electricity supply and thermal generation of the latter. HERON owns and operates two natural gas thermal plants and holds c.11% market share in the domestic electricity supply business.

HELLENiQ ENERGY’s CEO expects tests drilling in 2025 (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, the CEO of HELLENiQ ENERGY reiterated yesterday that he expects that the FID for the test drilling for carbohydrates in the offshore area west of Crete (where HE holds 30% of the exploration rights, while Exxon Mobil the remaining 70%), will be taken in 2025.

Trade Estates changes in voting rights

Trade Estates announced that on 4 February House Market Bulgaria EAD, H.M. Housemarket Cyprus and Trade Logistics transferred 19,279,935 shares corresponding to 16.0% of the total share capital. In more details Housemarket Bulgaria sold all of its position, the total share of Housemarket Cyprus fell to 4.89%, the total share of Housemarket S.A. fell below the limit of 1/3 to 25.47% and the total percentage held by Fourlis Holdings fell below the 50% limit to 47.32%. Following the announcement, Autohellas purchased 3,013,220 shares for EUR 4,519,830 or EUR 1.5/sh and CFO of the group Mr. Dimitrios Papoulis  purchased 667,000 shares for a total consideration of EUR 1,000,500 or EUR 1.5/sh.

Reggeborgh to take the fit & proper by 15 February-Press

Reportedly, Bank of Greece will give the fit & proper to Reggeborgh Invest by 15 February to increase its stake above 10.0% in Alpha Services and Holdings. According to ATHEX data, Reggeborgh Invest holds a 5.158% stake and Unicredit a 9.6159% stake. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.55/share.

Sarantis Financial Calendar 2025

Sarantis announced that it will report FY24 results on Wednesday 12 March 2025, the conference call is scheduled for the next day and the AGM will be held on Monday 28 April 2025.

Generali Hellas is also interested in Ethniki Insurance-Press

Press reports (mononews) indicate that Generali Hellas is interested in acquiring Ethniki Insurance. Recall that Piraeus Financial Services has expressed officially its interest in the company.

Sunrise Mezz 2024 results out on 09 April 2025

The company announced that it will report FY2024 results on 09 April 2025 and the AGM will take place on Friday 20 June.

Phoenix Vega Mezz 2024 results out on 09 April 2025

The company announced that it will report FY2024 results on 09 April 2025 and the AGM will take place on Friday 20 June.

Jumbo Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 3 February 53,439 own shares at an average price of EUR 25.635. The company now holds 1,608,919 shares or 1.18% of the total share capital.
  

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

On a low-volatility day for the market, Greek equities returned on green territory yesterday, up c.0.9%, on a EUR 170m turnover. Banks started to gain momentum once again, following Monday’s sell-off, rising 1%, with Piraeus Bank standing out up 2.5%, Alpha gaining 1%, followed by NBG +0.6%. Among top performers, Jumbo recoded c.2.2% gains, OPAP was up 1.4%, PPC rose 1%, while Titan and Motor Oil marked a 0.7% and c.0.6% increase respectively. Metlen, Cenergy, Sarantis and OTE all finished hovering around the flatine. On red, GEK Terna posted a modest drop of 0.6%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

BANKS

According to BoG, the average loan yield on outstanding loans decreased in December to 5.50% from 5.75% in November. On new disbursements the average yield declined to 5.21% from 5.27% in November.  On the deposit front, new time deposit rates decreased to 1.65% in December vs. 1.74% in November. The average deposit cost on outstanding balances stood at 49bps (vs. 50bps in November).

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

According to press reports, Generalli has also expressed an interest in the acquisition of Ethinki Insurance. Reportedly, Piraeus Bank will announce a bid for Ethinki Insurance by the end of the week or early next week.

ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>

According to press reports, Reggeborgh Invest is likely to get regulatory approval to increase its stake above 10% by February 15. The current stake of Reggeborgh Invest is slightly below 10%. 

METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>

Reportedly, the Regulatory Authority of Energy in Romania has granted a license for electricity supply provision to Metlen.

AKTOR GROUP <AKTR GA, OW>

Intrakat announced that following the SCI its share capital amounts to EUR 61.2m divided into 204m shares. In addition, the CEO mentioned that in 2024E construction revenues will reach EUR 1.2bn with 2025E anticipated at EUR 1.6bn. The construction backlog is expected to increase to EUR 6.0bn by year end 2025 from EUR 5.1bn currently. 

HELLENiQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>

Helleniq Energy CEO confirmed yesterday that the FID for drilling explorations is Southwest of Crete (JV with Exxonmobil) will be taken within 2025.

TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>

Trade Estates announced a private placement of 19.3m shares on February 4th, corresponding to 16% of the company’s share capital, for a total EUR 28.9m (EUR 1.5/share). Autohellas acquired 3m shares for a total of EUR 4.5m.

 

ELLAKTOR <ELLAKTOR GA>

Ellaktor announced that EGM approved the capital return of EUR 0.85/share. The ex-rights date is set on March 24th.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Taking cues from the recovery across global markets, the ASE General index finished at 1.521 points (+0.88%) on Tuesday, near its intraday high. Trade activity totaled €171m, above the 100-day MA of €153m. Fourlis (+2.86%) outperformed among gainers, followed by Piraeus Bank, ADMIE, Jumbo, and Austriacard (on >2% gains), while AIA, Quest, Motodynamics, Bank of Cyprus, PPA, OPAP, IDEAL Holdings, Dimand, CCH, HelleniQ Energy, PPC, and Alpha Bank all booked gains >1%. On the flipside, Kri Kri (-1.54%) and Noval Properties (-1.26%) were among the few notable laggards. Global futures point to a slightly negative opening today, due to the rising trade tensions and soft corporate earnings in the US.

Trade Estates – Fourlis Group // Placement of c16% of the shares yesterday at €1.50 per share. The transaction, executed at c10% discount to the closing price, met strong demand, leading to the allocation of 16% of Trade Estates’ share capital, above the 13.4% required for Fourlis to be able to deconsolidate the business. As per press reports, both existing TE strategic investors participated in the offering, with strong demand from foreign names as well, given the attractive value (c40% discount to NAV). We view this long-awaited transaction as a positive catalyst for Fourlis, as it enables the deconsolidation of Trade Estates and makes the deeply discounted valuation of the stub (<4x 2025e EV/EBITDA) more apparent. The deal is also positive for Trade Estates, as it removes the stock overhang and increases the free float.

Motor Oil – GEK Terna // According press unconfirmed sources suggest that GEK Terna and Motor Oil have been in negotiations for months regarding HERON, with discussions recently progressing well. The article indicates a potential merger between GEK Terna’s HERON and Motor Oil’s NRG. Although the report does not explicitly state who would control the merged entity, we see Motor Oil as the most likely bidder, given the Group’s strategic focus on expanding into electricity. Meanwhile, GEK Terna has concentrated its investment efforts on concessions and is likely exploring potential exit opportunities from its energy activity.

Metlen // According press Metlen has obtained a license from Romania’s energy regulator to operate in the country’s electricity supply market. The article suggests that the company aims to secure licenses in multiple regional markets, complementing its existing presence in Greece, namely North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Albania.

Greek Banks // The interest rate spread between new loans and deposits was slightly down m/m in December (down by 3bps m/m; -79bps in FY’24) at 4.76%, with the spread on outstanding balances also narrowing (down by 24bps m/m; -83bps in FY’24) at 5.01%.

Ellaktor // The EGM approved the capital return of €0.85/share, with the stock scheduled to trade ex-div on 24th March.