Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (05.02.2024)

ATHEX headed north on Friday, for four sessions in a row, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.61% at 1,385.01 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.58%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.48%, Banks Index: +0.76%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 137.9m, down from Thursday’s EUR 150.8m. On a weekly basis, the General Index gained 1.77% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +2.01%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.06%, Banks index: +5.57%). We expect banks to continue setting the tone in ATHEX today.

Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – January 2024

Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 46.86% in January 2024 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 93.0/MWh, down by EUR 9.2/MWh m-o-m and sharply lower by EUR 98.8/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 5,195/GWh, down by 24.0% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 14.73% (16.43% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 10.92%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 6.23% and MOH’s NRG with 5.50%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in January 2024 dropped by 2.97% m-o-m to 53.14%. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 42% of total (vs. 31% in December), Natural Gas follows with 30% (vs. 29% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 6% (10%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 4% (6%) and 2% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 16% (21%).

Piraeus net credit expansion reached EUR 1.7bn in 2023-CEO

The CEO of Piraeus Financial Holdings stated that net credit expansion reached EUR 1.7bn in 2023 and the bank targets to remain in the same level in 2024. The news is positive as net credit expansion exceeds our estimates of EUR 1.5bn for both 2023 and 2024. Recall that the bank will report 4Q/FY 2023 results on 14 February. Piraeus is our top pick in the sector with a TP of EUR 5.00/share.

Lamda Development to award all construction projects in Hellinikon by May (press)

Lamda Development is close to complete the award of all major construction projects in the Hellinikon (namely, Riviera Galleria, Vouliagmenis Mall, Hellinikon Park, Retail Park, Little Athens Block of apartments the seaside Hotel and other projects) by this May.

Kri-Kri revises upwards its guidance for 2023e

Kri-Kri updated its Guidance for 2023e, expecting sales at EUR 210m (vs. EUR 200m initially) and EBIT at EUR 41m (vs. EUR 24.8m previously).

The ASE Index recorded gains of 61bps on Friday with a solid EUR 138m turnover. Banks were again the main focus (+0.76%) with Alpha continuing to outperform (+2.1%).

According to Eurostat, inflation in Greece during January 2024 eased to 3.2% vs. 3.7% in December 2023. Eurozone inflation stood at 2.8% in January 2024.

ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

HDRAF announced that the total demand for the public offering exceeded EUR 8bn, an oversubscription of c.12x (including the cornerstone investors). Out of the 90m shares, 77.8m (86.44%) was allocated to foreign investors and 12.2m to locals. The price of the offering was set at EUR 8.2 per share. AviAlliance as cornerstone investor acquired the shares at 9.758 per share. The new shares will start trading on the ASE on February 7. 

EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>

The Cyprus Competition Authority approved Eurobank’s acquisition of Hellenic Bank last week. Next step is the approval from the SSM in order to procced with a tender offer for the minorities of Hellenic Bank. We remind that Eurobank currently owns 29.2% of Hellenic Bank and, via various agreements with Wargaming, PIMCO and Senvest, it will reach 55.5% post regulatory approvals. The remaining 44.5% is owned by Demetra Holdings (21.3%) and free float (25.4%).

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

According to press reports, the placement from the HFSF is expected to take place in early March.

Market Comment // Greek stocks extended their positive streak to 4 sessions on Friday, with the ASE index settling at 1,385 points (+0.61%). On a weekly basis, the index finished +1.77% higher, driven by a rally for Banks (+5.57% vs. the previous week). Friday’s turnover reached €135m, near recently established levels and above the 100-day MA of €114m. Optima (+2.7%), Viohalco (+2.56%) and Alpha Bank (+2.06%) stood out among gainers, followed by Entersoft, Sarantis, Aegean Airlines, ATHEX, Cenergy, Fourlis, Motor Oil and CCH (all on >1% gains). On the other hand, Autohellas (-1.07%), Austriacard (-0.84%) and Mytilineos (-0.63%) were among the few notable names on losses. EU futures point to a mixed opening today as investors reassess the timing for Fed rate cuts later in the year.

Athens International Airport // Details regarding the share allocation to be announced today, with 12.2m shares penciled in for the Greek book and 77.8m for the foreign institutional offering. As per Friday’s announcement, total orders exceeded €8bn, with the offering price at €8.2 per share (top of the range). The shares are to commence trading on 7^th February.

Piraeus Bank // Net credit expansion reached €1.7bn exceeding 2023e guidance of €1.6bn, as per commentary by the bank’s CEO at the Agrotica Expo (according to Kathimerini). Additionally, Piraeus Bank has brought forward its FY’23 results announcement to February 14^th (from Feb 23^rd), which may signal the acceleration in HFSF’s placement process.

PPC // PPC managed to reduce emissions by 25% yoy in 2023, which translates to a decrease of 55% compared to the base year (2019). Nonetheless, the Group did not manage to meet its 2023 CO2 emissions reduction target of 57% vs the base year.

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