Στους ρυθμούς των ευρωαγορών που τηρούν στάση αναμονής ενόψει των προεδρικών εκλογών στις ΗΠΑ δείχνει να κινείται η αγορά στο Χρηματιστήριο Αθηνών μετά την ισχνή αντίδραση που βγήκε στο τέλος της περασμένης εβδομάδας.
Ο δείκτης υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης σημειώνει πτώση σε ποσοστό 0,25%, ενώ ο δείκτης της μεσαίας κεφαλαιοποίησης υποχωρεί σε ποσοστό 0,26%. Ο τραπεζικός δείκτης υποχωρεί κατά 0,32%.
Από τις μετοχές της υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης, τη μεγαλύτερη πτώση καταγράφουν οι μετοχές του ΟΠΑΠ, της Eurobank και της Εθνικής. Αντιθέτως, τη μεγαλύτερη άνοδο καταγράφουν οι μετοχές της Σαράντης, της Ελλάκτωρ και της Elvalhalcor.
Την ίδια ώρα, οριακές μεταβολές καταγράφονται τη Δευτέρα στα κυριότερα ευρωπαϊκά χρηματιστήρια με τους επενδυτές να έχουν στραμμένο το βλέμμα στις ΗΠΑ και στις αυριανές προεδρικές εκλογές, αλλά και στις αποφάσεις νομισματικής πολιτικής τόσο της Fed όσο και της Τράπεζας της Αγγλίας, ενώ συνεχίζεται η δημοσιοποίηση εταιρικών αποτελεσμάτων.
THEX headed north on Friday for a 2nd consecutive session, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.56% at 1,390.49 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.85%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.14%, Banks Index: +2.08%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 112.1m, down from Thursday’s EUR 148.2m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose marginally by 0.02% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.05%, Banks index: +1.92%). We expect a wait and see stance ahead of the US elections in ATHEX today, eyeing the international markets. Ahead this week: OPAP dividend cut-off and PPC EGM today, MSCI announcements on Wednesday, National Bank, Eurobank and Titan Cement 9M24 results on Thursday, Alpha Bank 9M24 results on Friday, Optima bank 9M24 results next Monday.
Macro Headlines
Greek PMI up in October
Greek PMI posted 51.2 in October, up from 50.3 in September, signaling only a slight upturn in the health of the Greek manufacturing sector, above the series average despite being the second-weakest in almost a year.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Financial Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 3.4380 | TP: EUR 6.00
3Q24 Review | Stellar 3Q performance led to another EPS upgrade and higher distribution payout for 2024
Optima View | Piraeus delivered a robust set of 3Q24 results that beat Optima and consensus estimates. Management will host a CC at 15:00 Athens/13:00 London Time. The stock is trading 0.62x P/TBV24E, at a deep 45% discount to European banks, despite its higher RoaTBV profile (15.4% in 2024e vs. 14.0% of EU banks) and higher dividend yield (>8% vs. 7.2% of EU banks). Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector and we reiterate our Buy rating.
New guidance | Management upgraded once more 2024 guidance and now expects normalized EPS to exceed EUR 0.90 (normalized net profit of EUR >1.125m), in line with our estimate of EUR 0.91 (EUR 1,132m) against its previous EPS guidance of EUR >0.85 and also expects normalized RoaTBV of >17% from >16% in August 2024.
Higher distribution payout for 2024 | Following the EPS guidance upgrade, mgt also increased the distribution payout target for 2024 to 35% of net profit from 30% previously, aiming to distribute EUR >350m, combining dividend and share buyback. The new payout target implies a gross yield of more than 8.1%.
NII Guidance | Management forecasts NII to reach EUR 2.1bn in 2024, in line with our estimate and to narrow to EUR 1.85-1.90bn in 2025 (EUR +50, +100m against previous guidance) and below our estimate of EUR 2.06bn. In our view, guidance is conservative as it assumes the DFR end rate at 2.0% in 2025e.
DTC Guidance | Mgt guided also on the acceleration of DTC amortization from 2025 onwards. The extra DTC amortization of EUR 145m will increase the total DTC amortization to EUR 328m pa, narrowing the DTC/CET1 ratio to 30% in 2027e (termination in 2034) and shaping the CET1 ratio at 16.0%. DTC amortization has no impact on tangible equity. According to mgt, a net profit run rate of EUR 1.0bn, creates a buffer of EUR 400m that could be used for EUR 3.5bn extra credit expansion, stepping up further distribution payout and to extra CET1 build-up.
3Q24 results | 3Q24 reported net profit came in at EUR 318.4m (-4% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y), 3% above Optima estimate of EUR 310.0m and 4% above consensus estimate of EUR 305.0m. NII was shaped at EUR 529.5m (+0.5% q-o-q, -0.3% y-o-y), slightly higher than Optima and consensus estimates. NIM narrowed by 1bp q-o-q to 2.73%. Fee income came in at EUR 155.9m (-13% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), broadly in line with Optima and consensus estimates. Total revenues reached EUR 708.7m (-2% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y) and OpEx stood at EUR 207.6m (+2% q-o-q, +6% y-o-y). 9M24 net profit skyrocketed by 53% y-o-y to EUR 881.5m.
Balance sheet | Performing loans came in at EUR 32.0bn (EUR +1.9bn y-t-d vs. FY target of EUR 1.6bn) and deposits at EUR 60.5bn (EUR +783 q-o-q). Time deposits reached EUR 13.5bn (EUR -47m q-o-q) and accounted for 22.3% of the deposit base. Investment securities also increased by EUR 610.7m q-o-q to EUR 16.05bn.
Asset quality | LLPs reached EUR 51.7m (+20% q-o-q) and organic CoR was shaped at 54bps. NPEs narrowed by EUR 2m q-o-q to EUR 1.26bn, the NPE ratio squeezed further to 3.2% and the NPE cash coverage widened to 61.4%.
Capital | Tangible equity stood at ca7.1bn (EUR +310m q-o-q) and pro-forma FL CET1 widened further to 14.7% (+50bps).
CC Highlights
- They will announce a new Business Plan for 2025e-2027e in mid-February.
- They stepping up the process in order the AGM to take place in early 2Q25 and to distribute the dividend and initiate the share buyback sooner than expected. Share buyback will be substantial but no more details were given.
- Reconfirmed distribution payout at 50% for 2025 from 35% in 2024.
- New performing loans target increased by EUR 1.0bn to EUR 33.0bn for 2024. The top priority is to increase credit expansion and are also looking the reperforming loans market.
- They expect net growth in retail credit in 2025 driven by higher net credit expansion in small business and consumer loans and zero NCR in housing loans.
- Cost of risk will gradually normalize to European levels (40bps) from 60bps in 2024.
- A new NPE securitization of EUR 250m will be held in 4Q24 and will reduce NPE ratio below 3.0% versus 3.0% of Spanish banks and 2.5% of Italian banks. New synthetic securitization in place.
- They look for acquisitions of platforms in the Eurozone that be will add on fee income and in areas such as asset management, transaction banking, leasing and factoring.
- Snappi to commence operations in 2Q25 and targets revenues of EUR >200m and 2.5m customers for the next 4-5 years and with presence in 3 to 4 European countries.
PPC EGM today
PPC will hold an EGM today, to approve the spin-off of the “Testing, Inspection & Certification” Business Sector of PPC S.A. and contribution thereof to a new company, a wholly owned subsidiary of PPC, to be established for this purpose and the cancellation of own shares.
METLEN enters six additional markets (press)
According to Euro2day.gr, METLEN acquired the necessary licenses to operate energy trading services in six additional countries in SE Europe, namely Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia and Slovenia.
Intralot won’t renew Ohio Lottery contract from June 2027-Press
According to press reports (mononews), the Ohio Lottery has selected a new central gaming vendor and Scientific Games will take over from 30 June 2027. According to our estimates, the contract is expected to generate revenues of EUR 37.8m on average over 2024e-2026e and EBITDA of EUR 19.6m, (13.9% of group EBITDA) in the same period. At first glance, the news is negative but Intralot has the time to counterbalance the loss with new contracts around the globe.
OPAP trades ex-dividend today
OPAP will trade today ex-interim DPS of EUR 0.6028 (DY: 3.8%).
OTE Share Buyback
The company announced that during 29/10/2024 – 1/11/2024, it purchased 279,164 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.6089 per share and now holds 4,515,302 own shares or 1.094% of the total shares outstanding.
Greek equities entered November with a positive tone, recording modest gains of 0.5%, boosted by the banking sector, while daily trading value stood at EUR 112m. The banking index demonstrated strong momentum, rising 2%, led by Piraeus, following its robust 3Q24 results and NBG both up c.2.7%, as well as Eurobank +1.3%. PPA stood out marking a 4.1% increase, Cenergy finished c.3% higher, OTE advanced 2.1%, while OPAP and Metlen finished flat. On red, Helleniq Energy and PPC were both down 1.4%, Titan slipped 1.2%, with Jumbo and GEK Terna recording 0.8% losses.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
Piraeus Bank reported on Friday a very strong third quarter, c.10% ahead of our net profit estimates driven by a better-than-expected NII (marginally up qoq vs. our assumption for a 4% qoq decline). In all, the bank reported a EUR 320m bottom line with NII at EUR 530m (+0.4% qoq) on the back of higher loan growth and a better deposit mix. COR was also lower vs. our expectations (c.55bps in 3Q24) on limited new NPE flow.
The management proceeded with another uplift in 2024E guidance and now expects an EPS for 2024E of >EUR 0.90 for 2024E (from c.EUR 0.85 in the previous June guidance), a ROTE of >17% (from c.14%) on a 10% yoy loan growth (PE balance at EUR 33bn from EUR 31.5bn). New guidance points to a 35% pay-out ratio (vs. 25-30% previously) and a dividend yield of over 8% on current share price levels.
In addition, the management upgraded the guidance for 2025E NII despite an ECB DFR assumption of 2.0% from 2.75% previously due to higher loan volumes, lower deposit mix. On 2025E the management now expects NII of EUR 1.85-1.90bn (from c.EUR 1.8bn previously and c.EUR 2.1bn for 2024E). Although updated NII guidance is in line with our estimates and consensus, the uplift is reassuring in view of the lower ECB rate assumptions. The management will provide further business plan targets in February.
On DTCs, Piraeus announced the acceleration of the amortization in order to reach zero by 2034 vs. 2041. In 2027E management expects DTC/CET1 at 30% from 62% in 2024. The bank will target a distribution policy of 50% from 2025E.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus announced that following the implementation of its share-buyback program, its total share capital stands at EUR 44.2m, divided into 441.7m shares. Note that c.79% of the total maximum value of the share buyback program has been completed as of October 31.
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.
Market Comment // The ASE index rose by 0.56% on Friday, recovering from earlier weekly losses and closing nearly flat over the 5-day period at 1,390.5 points. Trading activity remained in symphony with recent levels, with Friday’s turnover reaching €112mn, just 7% below the 100-day moving average. Banks led the gainers, advancing 2.1%, with NBG and Piraeus Bank both surging 2.7%, followed by Eurobank and Alpha Bank (up 1.5% each). Among non-financials, Piraeus Port Authority topped the leaderboard popping 4.2%, followed by Cenergy (+3.0%). Fourlis (+2.4%), Viohalco (+2.3%), CCH (+2.2%) and HTO (+2.2%) also provided support to the main gauge. On the downside, Autohellas dropped 2.6%, with Kri Kri (-2.2%), Ideal (-2.1%), Ellaktor (-1.6%), HelleniQ Energy (-1.5%), PPC (-1.4%), and AIA (-1.4%) posted modest losses. European futures point to a mixed opening today, with investor sentiment remaining cautious ahead of tomorrow’s US elections.
Piraeus Bank // Piraeus bank reported Q3 results above our and consensus estimates, with adj. net profit at €320m (vs cons of €305m) buoyed by better-than-expected NII due to robust PE expansion of c€0.8bn qoq and resilient loan spreads coupled with higher than expected non-core income. Adj. RoTBV for Q2’24 stood at 17.7%, surpassing the 2024 target of 16%, which led management to raise their guidance to over 17%. The FL CET1 reached 14.7%, including accruals for a 35% dividend payout. Additionally, the NPE ratio fell by 10bps q/q at 3.2%. Finally, from 2025, DTC amortization is set to accelerate, with mgt targeting full elimination by 2034 (previously 2041), enhancing SSM flexibility on capital allocation.
OPAP // Ex-div today, gross interim DPS of €0.6028 (slightly increased from €0.60 initially, reflecting the top-up corresponding to OPAP’s 11.3m own shares). Post 5% withholding tax, the net DPS will settle at €0.573 (3.7% net yield).
PPC // EGM today, where shareholders will vote on the spin-off of the Testing, Inspection & Certification business into a new, wholly-owned subsidiary, and on the cancellation of own shares acquired through the share buyback program.
Metlen // According press Metlen is planning to expand its electricity supply business beyond Greece, targeting customers in Italy, Hungary, and the Balkans (including Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia). Central to this strategy will be the VBL products, which in Greece serve high-energy-consuming businesses in the medium-voltage segment.
IDEAL Holdings // Announced that the early redemption right for the common bond loan issued last December has been triggered through the Astir Vitogiannis sale. The exercise period will commence today and expire on 29th November. Bond holders who exercise the early redemption right will receive payment on 16th December.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
