Οριακή υποχώρηση κατά 0,01% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. κλείνοντας στις 1446,09 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 86,3 εκ. ευρώ. Η συνεδρίαση χαρακτηρίστηκε από υποτονικότητα µε τη µεταβλητότητα να µην ξεπερνάει τις 6 µονάδες. Ωστόσο, αυτό δεν εµπόδισε την εναλλαγή του προσήµου του Γ.∆. από θετικό σε αρνητικό, µε τις 1450 µονάδες να αποτελούν ισχυρό όριο αντίστασης και προσώρας απόρθητο, µε τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να συνεχίζουν να κινούνται σε ανοδική κατεύθυνση. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,358%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-0,64%) κατέγραψε απώλειες µε την Εθνική (-1,08%) να υποαποδίδει αλλά την Alpha (+0,19%) να διαφοροποιείται. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε ο Σαράντης (+4,49%), ο Α∆ΜΗΕ (+4,49%) λόγω της θετικής εξέλιξης για την ηλεκτρική σύνδεση Ελλάδος-Κύπρου-Ισραήλ, η Motor Oil (+2,03%), η ΕΧΑΕ (+2,63%), η Aegean (+1,25%), η Lamda (+1,40%), η ΕΧΑΕ (+2,63%) αλλά και η Αττικής (+18,31%) που δροµολογεί τη συγχώνευσή της µε την Παγκρήτια. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε ο ΟΤΕ (-1,19%), η Cenergy (-1,64%), η Βιοχάλκο (-0,68%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (-0,31%), η ∆ΕΗ (-0,34%), ο Τιτάν (- 0,31%) και το Jumbo (-0,26%). Απολογιστικά, 55 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 43 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ο Όµιλος Infoquest και ο όµιλος Ideal Holdings ανακοινώνουν σήµερα τα αποτελέσµατα για το 1ο εξάµηνο. Στις ΗΠΑ, τα στοιχεία της µεταποίησης δεν θεωρήθηκαν ικανοποιητικά οδηγώντας σε υποχώρηση του δείκτες στη Wall Street. Ανοικτό σε όλα τα σενάρια το σκηνικό για τη σηµερινή συνεδρίαση στο Χ.Α.
UBS: ∆ιατηρεί πρόβλεψη για άνοδο 2,5% του ελληνικού ΑΕΠ το 2024.
ATHEX headed marginally south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.01% at 1,446.09 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.05% Banks Index: -0.64%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 85.8m, up from Monday’s EUR 82.0m. We expect the international markets to weigh on ATHEX today.
Sector Headlines
Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans widened by 9bps m-o-m to 5.86% in July 2024, whilst the average interest rate on new production of deposits remained stable m-o-m at 0.57%. The rise in the average interest rate on new loan production by 9bps m-o-m is attributed to the higher interest rates on business (+22bps m-o-m), while the interest rate on mortgage loans squeezed by 28bps m-o-m. Thus, the interest rate spread for new production widened by 9bps m-o-m to 5.29%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread squeezed by 5bps m-o-m to 5.56%.
Greek-Cypriot agreement on Great Sea Interconnector
According to Energypress.gr, following multi day negotiations between the Greek and Cypriot authorities, the two parties finally reached an agreement with regards to the Great Sea Interconnector, planned to link the Greek and Cypriot electrical grids, under the mediation of the EU DG for Energy. RAEK, the Cypriot energy regulatory authority, has agreed to approve the recovery of revenue during the project’s development, beginning 2025, until its launch, planned for 2030. The agreement essentially means that IPTO’s concerns over the project’s funding shortage have been accepted by the Cypriot government. Additionally, any remaining costs incurred by IPTO during the construction of the project that exceed EUR 125m will be recovered, again from Cypriot consumers, through capitalization after the interconnection begins operation. Also, RAAEY, the Greek regulatory authority for energy, needs to approve a WACC level for project revenues to be derived from regulated charges in Greece at 9%.
Company Headlines
OPAP || BUY | CP: EUR 16.10 | TP: EUR 19.30
2Q24 Results Review: Strong 1H24 performance, in line with our call; EUR 0.60/share interim dividend, above our estimate
Facts: OPAP released solid 2Q24 results, broadly in line with our estimates. In particular, revenues came in at EUR 532.8m (slightly above Optima, +7.0% YoY), EBITDA reached EUR 183.4m (beating our call, +3.11% YoY), and recurring net profits of EUR 106.4m (slightly above our call, -0.8% YoY). With respect to the dividend, OPAP declared an interim DPS of EUR 0.60/share (ex-date 4 November, DY: 3.7%), above our estimate. The company will hold a conference call today at 16:00 Athens time (Greek participants: +30 211 180 2000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Analysis: Turning to segmental performance, the strong results were driven by the improved Betting, and on-line casino performance, aided by the strong contribution of EURO’24, the momentum of Eurojackpot and the strong performance of online casino with elevated player engagement. It is noted that is the first time that land-based retail channel recorded a slight decrease (-1.3% y-o-y), while online channel continued to grow at a high pace (+33.6% y-o-y) and reached c. 30% of total GGR in 2Q24 vs. 24% in 2Q23 We note that Instant & Passives is the only category that recorded a notable decrease of 16.6% y-o-y in 2Q24, negatively affected by the Scratch and laiko weak performance and strong online competition. Group’s net debt is at EUR 193.1m (with a solid cash position of EUR 450.4m vs. EUR 487.3 at FY23), with Net Debt/LTM EBITDA at 0.26x (0.30x incl. Leases).
Comment: Overall, we expect OPAP’s solid performance and profitability recorded in 2Q24 to continue in 3Q24e, aided by the summer season event sports calendar and the high tourism inflows that will further enhance land-based operations, while we expect on-line to continue growing. Also, we expect lower operating expenses in 2H24 as the expensive front-loaded promotional campaign of Euro jackpot and Euro’24 (marketing expenses up by c.42% in 2Q24) will be normalized boosting profit margins and we expect OPAP to be able to meet the upper bound of the management’s guidance for an EBITDA of EUR 750-770m. With respect to the dividend, the interim distribution (above our expectations) of EUR 0.60/share signals in our view the company’s confidence for a positive outlook in the short and medium term. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating on attractive risk adjusted returns and valuation grounds (20% upside potential from current price levels including dividend distributions) and a very attractive investment case (generous dividend, strong FCF, unlevered position).
Aegean Airlines to invest EUR 25m in Volotea
Aegean Airlines will participate in an overall capital increase of Volotea of up to EUR 50m through a profit participating loan which will be convertible into shares by joining 50/50% with Volotea’s existing shareholders. The agreement has a second part for another tranche of the convertible loan in 2Q25 for an additional amount of up to EUR 50m, where Aegean Airlines will participate by 50%. In case that the participation of the Aegean converted into shares would translate to a 13% stake in Volotea while if the second tranche is also executed and converted into shares, the overall stake of AEGEAN in Volotea could reach c. 21%. AEGEAN’s Chairman Eftichios Vassilakis highlighted that the agreement contains the cooperation in distribution and other commercial areas, with the aim of exploiting synergies between the two companies to develop and expand the international network to/from Greek Regional airports, while the two companies also agreed to jointly explore further cooperation in the provision of MRO and Flight Simulator Training services by AEGEAN’s Group. Volotea is a low-cost carrier based in Barcelona with a fleet of 41 Airbus that curried 10.3m passengers in 2023. The focus of the Airline is to provide direct flights to previously underserved and largely seasonal leisure markets. FY23 was a strong year for the company with revenues reached c. EUR 700m and EBITDA of c. EUR 96m (EBITDA margin of c.13.8%)
Sarantis Group CC highlights
During yesterday’s conference call, management stressed that: a) it is exploring new investment opportunities, b) management is confident that it will achieve its fiscal year guidance of sales of c. EUR 575m and EBITDA of c. EUR 80m, c) investment in the PoliPack plant was completed in 2Q24, d) Stella Pack plant will be further expanded to serve all countries where the company operates, e)investments in the new Clinea brand is continued and management explores new markets, while the Sarantis Group is focusing on expanding its footprint in the US through Amazon, f)margins are improving as investments mature and plants are more efficient.
Alpha Services and Holdings issued new AT1 Notes
Alpha announced that it successfully completed the pricing of its EUR 300m Fixed Rate Reset Additional Tier 1 Notes, which are non-call 6 perpetual notes, with a yield of 7.5% from 11.875% in the previous issue of EUR 400m in February 2023. Demand amounted to EUR 2.9bn, i.e. an oversubscription of 9.5x. The issuance of the AT1 Notes optimizes the regulatory capital structure and diversifies its capital sources while further strengthening the Total Capital Ratios by circa 93bps. The news is positive and reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.10/share.
Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback
Alpha announced that during the period 27.08.2024 – 30.08.2024 it purchased a total of 977,017 own shares, with an average price of EUR 1.5707/share and a total cost of EUR 1,534,567.27. Following the above purchases, the company holds a total of 12,370,391 own shares, representing 0.53% of shares o/s.
Attica Bank EGM approved merger with Pancreta
The EGM of shareholders of Attica Bank approved its merger with Pancreta Bank by absorption of the latter by the former. Reportedly (Kathimerini), Attica plans the impeding rights issue and the issue of warrants of a total of EUR 735m to take place at the end of October, while management targets pre-provision income to exceed EUR 200m in 2027
Coca Cola HBC new shares to commence trading today
The company announced that the new 63,574 ordinary registered shares with a par value of CHF 6.70 each fully paid, which have already been issued following the exercise of stock option plan will commence trading today on ATHEX.
Trade Estates 1H24 results out
Trade Estates released its 1H24 results, with rental income up by 65.0% y-o-y, at EUR 17.8m, adj. EBITDA (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) at EUR 14.1m recording an increase of 62.6% y-o-y and Net Profits (ex. Revaluation gains) up by 56.8% y-o-y to EUR 6.9m. Funds from Operations reached EUR 7.3m, up by 60.1% and finally, NAV was up by 1.8% y-t-d at EUR 303.6m or 2.52/share, at a 35.1% discount compared to yesterday’s close.
*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)
The market finished yesterday’s trading session flat, on a EUR 85m turnover, whereas the banking sector slipped -0.6%, with NBG down -1% and Piraeus Bank -0.9%. Among top gainers, Sarantis rose 4.5%, following strong 2Q24 results, Hellenic Exchanges was up 2.6%, Motor Oil and PPA marked a 2% and 1.6% advance respectively. Cenergy stood on red, recording a -1.6% drop, OTE was down -1.2%, PPC and Titan finished flattish -0.3%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
Reportedly, the repayment of the triple instalment of EUR 7.9 bn of GLF loans will take place next week
BANKS
The average loan yield on outstanding balances in July stood at 6.09% from 6.15% in June and 6.23% in May, reflecting the lower Euribor rates. On the deposit side, the average cost on outstanding deposits remained relatively unchanged at 0.53% while new retail time deposit rates were also unchanged in July (1.87% for up to 1 year).
Trends are in line with our expectations.
AEGEAN <AEGN GA, OW>
Aegean Airlines announced an investment of EUR 25m in Volotea via the participation in a capital increase of up to EUR 50m through a convertible loan (jointly with existing shareholders). Subject to conditions related to the 2024 financial performance of Volotea, there may be an additional second tranche of EUR 50m with Aegean Airlines participating with an additional EUR 25m (potentially in 1H25). Therefore, following both tranches, the capital increase of Volotea could reach up to EUR 100m with Aegean’s contribution at EUR 50m. In case the first phase is later converted into shares, the Aegean stake would translate to a 13% stake in Volotea. If the second tranche materializes, the overall stake of Aegean could reach 21%. The management team of Volotea will remain unchanged and each company remains independent. However, the two companies entered into an MoU for cooperation in distribution and other commercial areas.
There is limited financial data for Volotea to evaluate the transaction besides key highlights (revenue in 2023 of EUR 694m, +22% yoy, and EBITDA of EUR 96m). However, on a qualitative basis, we think the deal enables Aegean Airlines to gain exposure into an independent mid-sized low-cost carrier with a significant growth angle. Aegean is nearly double the size of Volotea in terms of revenue (Volotea targets >EUR 800m in 2024E and we expect c.EUR 1.7bn for Aegean) but the routes and strategy are complementary (and, therefore, both airlines with remain fully independent). We pinpoint that Aegean has a significant firepower with a net cash position (ex-leases) of EUR 510m in 1Q24 (with cash at EUR 728m).
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank issued yesterday a EUR 300m AT1 with a coupon of 7.5% and an oversubscription of 9.5x. The AT1 issue will enhance Total Capital Ratios by c.93bps.
OPAP <OPAP GA,OW>
The company reported solid set of 1H24 results, in line with our forecasts, with interim DPS announcement at EUR 0.60/share (Ex-DPS Nov 4th), above ours and market’s expectations. In 2Q24, GGR grew by 7% yoy, driven by strong Sportsbetting momentum, and online casino contribution. OPEX were inflated by promotional activities related to major sporting events during the quarter, rising by 40% yoy. EBITDA for the quarter came in at EUR 183.5m, fully in line with our estimates. The company reported a one off income from OPAP Cyprus related to the accounting treatment of the new concession, doubling financing income on a yoy basis, with net profit reaching EUR 118m, up 11% yoy, while on a recurring basis, net profit stood at EUR 107m, flat yoy and c.2% below our expectations. Net debt as oh 1H24 stood at EUR 193m, with net debt/EBITDA at 0.26x. In its press release, management reiterated FY 2024 guidance, which calls for EBITDA of EUR 750-770m.
On segmental breakdown, lotteries in 2Q24 demonstrated a flat performance on a yoy basis, at EUR 177m, with draw based games supporting a somewhat softer performance in Kino, while Eurojackpot continues to gain momentum. Strong performance was recorded by sportsbetting division, with Euro Cup positively affecting the last two weeks of the quarter and Betting recording 19.7% growth yoy at GGR of EUR 182m. Online betting GGR stood out, with the segment recording growth of 46% yoy. The same momentum was followed by online Casino, with GGR up 19.6% yoy on the back of higher customer engagement. VLTs GGR recorded a small drop, with GGR at EUR 80m, inline with expectations, while the declining trend in Instant and Passives continues, recording GGR drop of 16.6% yoy to EUR 25m.
The management is due to host a conference call today, (4 September) at 16:00 GR time. Conference call dial ins: UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, GR: +30 211 180 2000, US: +1 516 447 5632, INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872.
TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>
The company delivered a strong 1H24 results, with total revenues rising 71% yoy reaching EUR 20.2m, while a-EBITDA amounted to EUR 14m, up 62.6% yoy. In the meantime, Net profits recorded a 56.8% increase at EUR 6.9m compared to EUR 4.5m in 1H23, while Trade Estates FFO came in at EUR 7.3m, up 60%. The company’s strategy signals that growth will continue a solid upward trajectory during the second half of the year and especially 2025, with the opening of the Top Parks Retail park, with a 100% occupancy rate, in November 2024 and the completion of the new retail park in Heraklion in 2Q25. The company’s portfolio NAV reached EUR 303.6m or EUR 2.5/share, with the Net debt to investments ratio remaining unchanged at 41%.
Management will host a conference call today, at 17:30 GR time (15:30 UK, 10:30 NY). Dial in numbers: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.
SARANTIS GROUP <SAR GA>
During results conference call, management reiterated FY24 guidance, calling for EBITDA of EUR 80m. On working capital and net debt, management expects 2024 to end with a small net cash position, with working capital improving in the second half, according also to historic track record and business model. On a question regarding lower sales in Hungary, the company expects profitability to improve in the second half, on the back of product portfolio optimization to modern trade customers. As far as 3Q24 is concerned, sales momentum is maintained, with a small pressure witnessed in August. Last but not least, EUR 2.5-3m of guided capex for the year (EUR 20m in total for 2024 as per Investor Day Mar’24) will be rolled over to 2025 due to small delays Stella’s regranulation and Oinofyta distribution center investments, both expected to commence in 4Q24.
Market Comment // In a session marked by low volatility for the main index, the Greek market ended nearly flat on Tuesday closing at 1,446.1 points. Trading activity remained subdued, increasing only 4% vs the prior day to €85mn, c30% below the 100-day moving average of €122mn. Austriacard led the laggards falling 1.7%, followed by Cenergy (-1.6%), HTO (-1.2%), NBG (-1.1%), Motodynamics (-0.9%), and Piraeus Bank (-0.9%). Conversely, Sarantis and ADMIE Holding stood out with a rally of 4.5% each, while Hellenic Exchanges (+2.6%), Autohellas (+2.3%), and Motor Oil (+2.0%) also recorded strong gains. Today, the market is headed for a sharply negative opening, driven by a bout of risk-off sentiment after yesterday’s selloff in the US, as concerns over a potential economic downturn resurface.
OPAP // Q2 a bit better than expected, with EBITDA +3% yoy at €183m on higher revenues (€533m, +7% yoy). FY24 guidance has been reiterated, with mgt also announcing an interim dividend of €0.60 (3.7% yield, ex-div 4th November), broadly in sync with expectations.
Aegean Airlines // Aegean announced yesterday a €25m initial investment in Spanish carrier Volotea, through a profit participating loan convertible into shares. Aegean is joining Volotea’s existing shareholders in a €50m total capital increase, which could be topped up by a second tranche of €50m, in which Aegean would participate for another €25m in Q2’25. Assuming conversion of the 1st tranche of contribution into shares, this would translate to a 13% stake in Volotea for Aegean, which could reach up to 21% with the 2nd tranche. The two companies have agreed to cooperate commercially and also explore a cooperation in MRO and Flight Simulator services.
Trade Estates // H1’24 results announced yesterday, with rental income at €17.8m (+65% yoy) and adj EBITDA at €14.1m (63% yoy), propelled by the consolidation of Smart Park. Net profit settled -3% yoy at €13.0m due to lower revaluation gains. GAV increased to €499m from €484m in December 2023, while NAV also increased marginally from the previous quarter (Q1’24) to €303.6m (€2.52/share).
Quest // Quest is due to release its H1’24 results today after market. We anticipate an improved picture for the group, with sequentially improved commercial activities and courier services and accelerating growth in IT services. In total we estimate H1 EBITDA at €40.7m, +4.2% yoy implying +13% growth in Q2 more than offsetting the -4% decline in Q1’24. We model +11% H1 sales growth, with Q2 +17% following +6% in Q1.
Alpha Bank // Alpha (AB) raised €300m through placement of AT 1 notes (non-call 6 perpetual notes) at a 7.5% yield. Total bids reached €2.9bn, corresponding to 9.4x oversubscription. The issuance of the AT1 notes further strengthens AB’s total Capital Ratios by c93 bps.
Attica Bank-Pancreta Bank // EGM approved yesterday the merger of Attica Bank – Pancreta Bank by absorption of the latter by the former. Attica Bank’s share capital will amount to €2.6m post the merger, divided into 53.06m common shares. Upon completion of the merger, the newly formed entity will proceed with a SCI of €735mn, which is scheduled for the end of October.
Sarantis // In a confident conference call yesterday mgt reiterated the FY24 guidance and echoed a positive message on the overall execution (organic and Stella integration) and FCF generation in H2. With Q3 trends remaining strong (somewhat decelerated vs H1 but still very strong), we feel there is upside risk to the FY24 guidance, which ought to become apparent after the Q3 print in November.
Banks // The interest rate spread between new loans and deposits increased in July by 9bps m/m, while the spread on the back book slightly narrowed by 5bps m/m.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
