Νέες, υψηλότερες τιμές-στόχους για τις μετοχές των Motor Oil και Helleniq Energy από την Παντελάκης ΑΧΕΠΕΥ Ανεβάζει την τιμή-στόχο για τη Μotor Oil στα €31,7 από €25, με περιθώριο ανόδου από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα στο 34% (σύσταση overweight). Αντίστοιχα, ανεβάζει τον στόχο για τη Helleniq Energy στα €9,2 από €8,4 με το περιθώριο ανόδου να κινείται στο 11% (σύσταση neutral).
Intralot: Εξαγοράζει την Bally’s International Interactive. Η συνολική αξία της εξαγοραζόμενης εταιρείας αντιστοιχεί σε €2,7 δισ. Με μετρητά 1,5 δισ. και νέες μετοχές αξίας 1,136 δισ. η χρηματοδότηση. Αγόρασε το επιπλέον 6,48% από Κόκκαλη ο Soohyung Kim και προχωρά Υποχρεωτική Δημόσια Πρόταση καθώς η συμμετοχή της Bally’s και των συνδεδεμένων με αυτή εταιρειών στο μετοχικό της κεφάλαιο αυξήθηκε από 26.86% σε 33.34%. Ο Σ. Κόκκαλης, θα διατηρήσει ένα σημαντικό ποσοστό στην Intralot που θα παραμείνει εισηγμένη στο Χ.Α.
Euronext: σε συζητήσεις με το Δ.Σ. της ΕΧΑΕ, σχετικά με ενδεχόμενη προσφορά για την απόκτηση έως και του 100% των μετοχών της. H πρόταση θα περιλαμβάνει την ανταλλαγή μετοχών, αποτιμώντας την ΕΧΑΕ στα 6,90 ευρώ ανά μετοχή και οδηγώντας σε σταθερή ισοτιμία μετατροπής 21,029 κοινών μετοχών της ΕΧΑΕ για κάθε νέα μετοχή της Euronext. Το Υπουργείο Εθνικής Οικονομίας και Οικονομικών βλέπει πολύ θετικά το ενδεχόμενο μιας συμφωνίας.
Qualco: το 50,01% της Cenobe έναντι €1,235 εκ.Tαχέως αναπτυσσόμενη ελληνική εταιρεία, εξειδικεύεται στην κυβερνοασφάλεια, με πελατειακή βάση άνω των 50 οργανισμών σε επτά χώρες.
Eurostat: στο 3,6% ανήλθε ο ετήσιος πληθωρισμός στην Ελλάδα τον Ιούνιο. Ένα μήνα πριν ήταν στο 3,3%.
ΙΟΒΕ: ο δείκτης οικονομικού κλίματος συνεχίζει να υποχωρεί και τον Ιούνιο. Διαμορφώνεται στις 106,1, από τις 107,0 μονάδες τον προηγούμενο μήνα, στη χαμηλότερη επίδοση των τελευταίων 10 μηνών.
ATHEX headed north yesterday setting a new multi-year high, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.91% at 1,885.04 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.00%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.14%, Banks Index: +1.76%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 252.0m, up from Monday’s EUR 215.4m. We expect the ATHEX and Intralot deals to provide support to the market today.
Macro Headlines
Greek HICP up in June (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.6% in June, higher compared to 3.3% in May (and up by 1.3% m-o-m) and above the respective EU area figure (up to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May).
Greek PMI marginally down in June
Greek PMI posted 53.1 in June, from 53.2 in May, signaling the solid overall health of the manufacturing sector and historically elevated, despite the rate of growth easing to the slowest since February.
IOBE’s headline ESI down in June
The Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) issued its monthly survey for June 2025, according to which the Economic Sentiment Index deteriorated to 106.1 units from 107.0 in the previous month, driven by the drop in the Industry (-3.2 bps m-o-m), while expectations in the construction, services and Retail Trade improved by 1.3, 11.7 and 5.5 bps m-o-m respectively. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to -46.9 units in June from -42.7 a month ago, reflecting the worsening optimism of households for their financials.
Company Headlines
Unicredit increased slightly its stake to 20.477% in Alpha Bank
Alpha Bank announced that UniCredit S.p.A., held on 30 June 9.768% of the total voting rights and also held financial instruments which may be settled, by cash as the default option or, alternatively, by physical settlement, subject to the condition of having obtained all the necessary regulatory approvals. These instruments may potentially result in the acquisition of 247,918,401 common registered shares, representing 10.709% of the company’s total voting rights, thus UniCredit S.p.A.’s total voting rights in the bank would amount to 20.477%. Recall that Alpha Bank announced on 02 June that Unicredit held a 20.141% stake and that UniCredit announced on 28 May that it will submit all the required regulatory filings for acquiring a stake above 10% and up to 29.9%.
Euronext offer for Hellenic Exchanges at EUR 6.90/share, at 14.4% premium
Euronext announced that it has entered into discussions with the BoD of Hellenic Exchanges about a possible offer to acquire up to 100% of the shares of ATHEX for EUR 6.90/share, at 14.4% premium to yesterday’s closing price and 7.8% higher than our TP of EUR 6.40/share, through a share exchange with fixed conversion rate of 21.029 ATHEX ordinary shares for each new Euronext share. Based on Euronext’s share price of EUR 145.10 as of 30 June 2025, the potential offer would value ATHEX at EUR 399.0m (excluding 2,498,000 treasury shares), corresponding to 16.1x EPS25e and 9.7x EV/EBITDA25e. The submission of an offer would be subject notably to due diligence. Recall that HELEX has 100% free float and the Small Cap World Fund is the major shareholder with a 5.09% equity stake. A potential combination with ATHEX would deliver on Euronext’s ambition to consolidate European capital markets with growth and synergy opportunities. The combined Group would foster the harmonization of European capital markets, running on a unified trading and post-trade technology and operating on a cross-border clearing framework. Euronext is the largest liquidity pool in Europe, managing approximately 25% of cash equity trading activity in Europe and operating markets in major financial hubs such as Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Oslo and Paris. A potential combination would allow Greek financial markets participants to join a network of over 1,800 listed companies with a combined market capitalisation exceeding EUR 6.0tr. The BoD of Hellenic Exchanges announced yesterday that it has received an unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional all share takeover proposal from Euronext. The Board, together with its advisors, is evaluating the proposal from a strategic and financial perspective and has not entered into any discussions with Euronext at this time and will respond in due course. In our view, the operation of ATHEX under Euronext is positive, since it will provide Greek enterprises with access to new funding tools as well as to a larger pool of investors.
Intralot to acquire Bally’s International Interactive Business for EUR 2.7bn
Intralot and Bally’s Corporation announced that their respective Boards of Directors approved their entry into a definitive transaction agreement pursuant to which Intralot will acquire Bally’s International Interactive business in a cash-and-shares transaction that values the International Interactive Business at an enterprise value of EUR 2.7bn. The consideration for the acquisition of the International Interactive Business will comprise a combination of cash paid by Intralot and newly issued shares delivered by Intralot to Bally’s. As part of the transaction, Intralot expects to refinance part of its existing debt facilities and Bally’s also expects to repay secured debt from the cash proceeds. The transaction consideration to Bally’s will be made up of EUR 1.53bn cash consideration, and EUR 1.136bn of newly issued shares in new Intralot (873,707,073 shares, at an implied value of EUR 1.30/share). In order to support the EUR 1.53bn cash consideration to Bally’s and refinance part of its existing debt, Intralot has obtained commitments from foreign investment banks for debt financing up to EUR 1.6bn and expects to launch an up to EUR 400.0m share capital increase by way of an equity offering of shares listed on the Athens Stock Exchange, subject to corporate and regulatory approvals. Following the completion of the Transaction, Intralot is expected to remain listed on the Athens Stock Exchange. Bally’s, currently Intralot’s largest shareholder, is expected to become the majority shareholder of Intralot as a result of the transaction with a significant equity stake in Intralot. Intralot’s founder, Mr. Sokratis Kokkalis, will also maintain a significant stake in Intralot. Following the completion of the transaction, Intralot is expected to be a leading digital gaming operator and technology provider for lottery products with a footprint in some of the most attractive markets in Europe and North America. The completion of the Transaction is expected to occur in 4Q25.
Intralot has also today received notice that Bally’s and its affiliates increased its equity stake to 33.34% from 26.86% previously and hence it will proceed to a mandatory tender offer obligation for the remaining outstanding shares of Intralot has been triggered. Mr. Sokratis Kokkalis decreased its equity stake to 14.159% from 20.638% previously.
The combined company will have revenues of EUR 1.1bn, ca38.0% pre-synergies EBITDA margin and strong operating free cash flow conversion above 90% enhanced by short-term achievable cost synergies across organizational, third-party and operational areas driving additional margin expansion. According to the annual report of Bally’s, International Interactive includes the interactive European gaming operations and global licensing revenue generating operations business, as well as one casino property, Bally’s Newcastle, in the UK with 43k gaming square footage. International Interactive generated revenues of $909.5m and adjusted EBITDAR of $336.5m in 2024. Management will hold a CC today at 11:00 Athens/13:00 London Time and wait for more details of the transaction.
HELLENiQ ENERGY trades ex-dividend
As of today, HELLENiQ ENERGY trades ex-dividend of EUR 0.55/share (DY: 6.7%).
OTE trades ex-dividend tomorrow
The stock is set to trade ex-dividend tomorrow (DPS: EUR 0.7415, DY: 4.6%) and payment will commence on Wednesday 09 July.
Aegean Airlines: EUR 250m retail bond offering closes today
The public offering for Aegean Airlines’ new retail bond of up to EUR 250m concludes today, July 2. As a reminder, the yield range has been set at 3.70%–4.05%, with strong demand anticipated. The bond is expected to begin trading on the Athens Exchange on July 7, supporting the company’s funding strategy and investment plans.
OPAP appoints new CEO at Stoiximan
Effective July 1, 2025, OPAP appointed Nikos Fligos as new CEO of Stoiximan, succeeding co-founder George Daskalakis.
Fourlis new CEO
Fourlis announced that the company’s BoD elected Mr. John Vasilakos as a new executive member of the BoD in replacement of the resigned CEO and executive member Mr. Dimitris Valachis.
Sarantis’ Chairman sold shares
The company announced that the Chairman of BoD, Mr. Kyriakos Sarantis, sold on 26 June, 25,000 shares at an average price of EUR 13.46 and for a total value of EUR 336,500.
The ASE index rose 0.9% on Tuesday, supported by banks, on a high EUR 252m turnover. Banks outperformed with the banking index up 1.7% on the day, mainly driven by Alpha Bank, gaining 3.6%. On non-financials, Alter Ego stood out, recording 2.3% gains, while Sarantis underperformed losing 3%, followed by Metlen and Jumbo both down 1%. Helleniq Energy trades ex-dividend today (EUR 0.55).
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to Eurostat’s estimates, inflation in Greece stood at 3.6% yoy in June 2025, from 3.3% yoy in May 2025.
BANKS
Reportedly, the parliament will vote of the next few days the proposed government solution on Swiss Franc loans.
ATHENS EXCHANGE GROUP <EXAE GA, EW>
Euronext confirmed yesterday that it has entered into discussions with the Athens Exchange Group about a possible offer to acquire up to 100% of the shares of ATHEX. The offer would be structured as a share exchange valuating ATHEX at EUR 6.9 per share, leading to a fixed conversion of 21,029 ATHEX shares for each new Euronext share. ATHEX also confirmed with an announcement that it has received an unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional all share takeover proposal from Euronext, and will evaluate the offer. The Ministry of Finance welcomed the offer and the opportunity of ATHEX to enter a global group.
INTRALOT <INLOT GA, OW>
Intralot announced the acquisition of Bally’s International Interactive business, in a cash and shares transaction that values Bally’s at an EV of EUR 2.7bn. More specifically, the transaction is comprised of a EUR 1.53bn cash consideration and EUR 1.13bn of newly issued shares in new Intralot. Transaction is expected to be completed by 4Q25 (subject to relevant approvals) and will remain listed in ASE.. As part of the transaction, Intralot will refinance part of its existing debt and Bally’s will also proceed with the repayment o its secured debt from the cash proceeds. For its refinancing, Intralot has agreed on credit lines from Citizens Bank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies for up to EUR 1.6bn (to be refinanced through DCM) and expects to proceed with an Equity Share Capital Increase of up to EUR 400m to complete the acquisition. Post transaction, Intralot is targeting c.2.5x net debt/EBITDA and dividend payout of 35%of net, with upside optionality based on performance. Post completion, the company is expected to be a leading digital gaming operator and technology provider for lottery products active in Europe and North America. On a separate announcement, Soohyung Kim’s stake increased to 33.34%, from 26.86% previously and Socratis P. Kokkalis stake decreased to 14.16% vs 20.6% before.
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
FTSE issued a public notice on the exchange offer of Metlen S.A. shares for Metlen Plc shares, highlighting the offer period (27 June – 25 July) with admission date scheduled for 4 August. Completion of offer is conditional to regulatory approvals and a 90% acceptance rate, with remaining shares subject to squeeze out. The current projection is that Metlen Plc will be eligible for Developed Europe Mid Cap inclusion. Eligibility to the FTSE UK Index Series will then be evaluated at the quarterly index review in September 2025. Metlen Plc shares will be trade in Euros.
Metlen issued a regulated information that the companies affiliated with Mr Evangelos Mytilineos have submitted their shares in exchange for new ordinary registered shares issuable by Metlen Plc.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank announced that UniCredit’s stake stands at c.20.48%.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank announced the details on the EUR 500m senior preferred notes. The coupon stood at 2.87% and the notes are callable in two years. The total order book exceeded EUR 4.5bn (c.9x oversubscription) and 94% was allocated to foreign investors.
TITAN <TITC GA, EW>
Titan announced the commencement of a 9-month share buyback program on July 1st, up to an amount of EUR 10m.
QUALCO <QLCO GA>
Qualco Group announced the acquisition of 50.01% majority stake in Cenobe for a consideration of EUR 1.23m. Cenobe is a Greek company specializing in offensive cybersecurity operating in Greece, Cyprus, Germany, Switzerland, the UK, Sweden and the UAE.
Market Comment // The ASE benchmark index gained 0.91% on Tuesday to close at 1,885 points, driven by strong gains for financials (Banks +1.76%). Trade activity totaled €252m for the session, above the 100-day MA of €208m. Alpha Bank (+3.68%) led the way for gainers, followed by CCH, PPA and AEM (on >2% gains), while Optima Bank, Attica Bank, Viohalco, NBG, Piraeus Bank, OPAP, Ellaktor and Eurobank all booked >1% gains. On the negative side, Sarantis (-3.03%), Kri Kri (-2.33%) and Qualco (-2.20%) stood out among laggards, followed by ADMIE Holding, Noval Properties, Thrace Plastics, Titan Cement, Austriacard, Metlen, and Jumbo (on >1% losses). The market looks headed for a positive open today, supported by sustained optimism on the tariff outlook and buoyed further by ongoing ATHEX-Euronext discussions over a potential buyout.
EXAE // Euronext has announced it has entered into discussions with the Board of Hellenic Exchanges (ATHEX) for a potential voluntary public offer to acquire up to 100% of the share capital. The proposed structure is a stock-for-stock exchange, with a fixed ratio of 21.029 ATHEX shares per new Euronext share, implying a valuation of €6.90/share — a c14% premium vs the last close (€6.03). The offer values ATHEX at €399m, implying c.18x 2025e P/E and c.10.6x EV/EBITDA by our math, vs Euronext’s current valuation of 20.7x and 14.8x, respectively. In the light of the aforementioned developments we place our recommendation/PT on ATHEX “Under Review”.
Intralot // Intralot announced a landmark agreement to acquire Bally’s International Interactive business for an enterprise value of €2.7bn. The deal includes €1.53bn in cash and €1.136bn in new Intralot shares, at an implied value of €1.3/share and is expected to close in Q4’25. Intralot will launch a share capital increase of up to €400m, while having secured €1.6bn in bank financing. Bally’s CEO Robeson Reeves will become Intralot’s CEO, while Intralot will remain listed in Athens stock exchange. Meanwhile, Bally’s is set to become Intralot’s majority shareholder (stake rising from 26.9% to 33.3%) following the acquisition of a 6.48% stake from its President, Soohyung Kim, through a linked company, namely PE Sub Holdings, LLC. The transaction which raised the latter’s stake in Intralot to 33.34%, crossing the 33.3% threshold, triggers the obligation for a mandatory public offer.
Banks // Greek systemic banks are expected to deliver strong outcomes in the upcoming EBA stress tests, placing them among the best-performing peers in Europe. This is largely driven by high profitability since 2024 and the sharp drop in NPEs, which have allowed for minimal provisioning. Official results will be published on August 1. Even with strong results, the lack of banking union progress and rapidly changing macro risks may temper any easing in capital buffers.
Aegean // Aegean’s 7-year bond public offer process ends today. As a reminder, the company is seeking to raise up to €250m, with the yield range between 3.7% and 4.05%. Announcement of the final yield is expected at the end of the day. Bonds are expected to start trading on the Athex on Monday 7th July.
ADMIE Holding // AGM scheduled for today at 10:00am Athens time with investors called to approve standard AGM items, including the approval of the dividend out of FY’24 results and the establishment of a share buyback program.
HelleniQ Energy // The stock will trade today without the right to the final dividend of €0.55/share (6.6% yield). Payment is set to commence on 9th July.
OTE // Shares will trade ex-div tomorrow. The final DPS has been increased by the dividend corresponding to 11.1m own shares, thus settling at €0.7415 (vs the initially announced €0.7216). Post 5% withholding tax, the net dividend stands at €0.7044 (4,3% yield) and will be paid on 9th July.
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