Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (02.04.2025)

Άνοδο κατά 0,78% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1698,34 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 151,2 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν από το ξεκίνημα την υπεροπλία και με οδηγό τις τράπεζες και πολλά blue chips διατήρησαν το ΓΔ σε θετικό έδαφος, με το ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό των 1709 μονάδων να καταγράφεται λίγο πριν τις 1μμ. Ωστόσο, η περικοπή κερδών που καταγράφηκε στις δημοπρασίες προκάλεσε εύλογα ερωτηματικά. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,472% με τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται ανοδικά. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,50%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με την Alpha Bank (+2,23%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+1,35%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (+1,60%), η ΜΟΗ (+1,09%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+1,36%), ο ΟΤΕ (+1,93%), το ΔΑΑ (+1,74%), ο Σαράντης (+0,93%), η Optima (+1,74%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+0,71%), η Aegean (+0,75%) αλλά και oΑΔΜΗΕ (+4,30%), ο ΟΛΠ (+12,66%) και η Performance Technologies (+7,3%) από τη μεσαία και μικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΕΕΕ (- 1,28%), η Cenergy (-0,97%), η Lamda (-0,45%), ο Aktor (-0,58%) και ο Τιτάν (-0,35%). Απολογιστικά, 68 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 34 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ο Γ.Δ. αντέδρασε ανοδικά , ωστόσο για να θεωρήσουμε ότι η διόρθωση ολοκληρώθηκε θα πρέπει να υπερβεί τουλάχιστον τις 1719 μονάδες και στην συνέχεια το πρόσφατο καθοδικό χάσμα των 1734 μονάδων. Οι εταιρείες Motor Oil και Trade Estates ανακοινώνουν τα ετήσια αποτελέσματά τους. Τα βλέμματα όλων όσοι συμμετέχουν στις αγορές στρέφονται στο Λευκό Οίκο καθώς το βράδυ ο Πρόεδρος Τραμπ ανακοινώνει τους δασμούς που θα επιβάλει.

Σαράντης: Νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της, στα 15,5 από 15,1 ευρώ δίνει η Eurobank Equities, διατηρώντας σύσταση buy.

Metlen: νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της στα 51 από 48 ευρώ δίνει η Eurobank Equities, διατηρεί τη σύσταση αγοράς

Τράπεζας Πειραιώς: Νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της, στα 6,5 από 6,2 ευρώ δίνει η Optima Bank. Διατηρεί τη σύσταση buy.

Στο 8,6% υποχώρησε η ανεργία στην Ελλάδα τον Φεβρουάριο. Οι άνεργοι ανήλθαν σε 404.581 άτομα σημειώνοντας μείωση κατά 144.210 άτομα σε σχέση με τον Φεβρουάριο του 2024.

Eurostat: Στο 3,1% διαμορφώθηκε ο ετήσιος πληθωρισμός στην Ελλάδα τον Μάρτιο, από 3,0% ένα μήνα πριν. Στο 2,2% υποχώρησε στην ευρωζώνη, από 2,3% τον Φεβρουάριο.

IOBE: Το οικονομικό κλίμα ενισχύεται τον Μάρτιο, με τον σχετικό δείκτη να διαμορφώνεται στις 107,7 από τις 106,9 μονάδες τον προηγούμενο μήνα. Η μικρή αυτή ενίσχυση του δείκτη προέρχεται από τις Κατασκευές και τη Βιομηχανία καθώς οι Υπηρεσίες, το Λιανικό εμπόριο, αλλά και η καταναλωτική εμπιστοσύνη εξασθενούν ελαφρώς.

Μεταποίηση: Ενισχύεται η παραγωγή, σε υψηλά έτους ο PMI. Έκλεισε στις 55.0 μονάδες τον Μάρτιο, από τις 52.6 μονάδες του Φεβρουαρίου.

Briq: Στις 31.12.2024 η αξία του χαρτοφυλακίου ακινήτων αυξήθηκε κατά 91% και περιλάμβανε 57 ακίνητα εύλογης αξίας €285 εκ. Τα καθαρά κέρδη σύμφωνα με τα Δ.Π.Χ.Α. αυξήθηκαν σε € 29,3 εκ. (2023: € 14,6 εκ.). Μέρισμα €0,135 ευρώ και πρόταση για Scrip Dividend, μερισματική απόδοση 5,4%.

Αναβάθμισε τις ελληνικές τράπεζες η Fitch, δυο σε investment grade.Επενδυτική βαθμίδα σε Eurobank και Εθνική σε ‘BBB-‘/Σταθερό από ‘BB+’/Θετικό, έδωσε ο οίκος αξιολόγησης. Ένα σκαλί παρακάτω Πειραιώς και Alpha Bank σε ‘BB+’/Θετικό από BΒ/Θετικό, αλλά με θετικές προοπτικές.

DBRS: αναβαθμίζει την πιστοληπτική αξιολόγηση της Τράπεζας Πειραιώς κατά δύο βαθμίδες σε ΒΒΒ από ΒΒ (high), με την τάση να αλλάζει σε σταθερή από θετική.

ATHEX rebounded yesterday after three sessions in the red and in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 0.78% at 1,698.34 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.89%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.63%, Banks Index: +1.50%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 150.3m, down from Monday’s EUR 265.1m. We expect investors to hold a wait and see stance ahead of US President announcement on tariffs.

Macro Headlines

Greek HICP slightly up in March (Eurostat)

According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.1% in March (and up by 1.8% m-o-m), slightly up compared to 3.0% in February and above the respective EU area figure (down to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February).

Greek PMI up in March to a 3-year high

Greek PMI posted 55.0 in March, up from 52.6 in February, signalling the sharpest rise in employment since January 2022, as quicker expansions in output, new orders and employment supported growth.

Greek unemployment further down to 8.6% in February

ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.6% in February 2025, down from upwards, revised 9.1% in January 2025 and lower than 11.5% in February 2024. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 404,581, lower by 26.3% y-o-y and by 5.4% m-o-m.

Sector Headlines

Fitch upgraded Greek banks ratings

Fitch Ratings upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Eurobank  and National Bank of Greece one notch to ‘BBB-‘/Stable from ‘BB+’/Positive, and those of Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank to ‘BB+’/Positive from ‘BB’/Positive. Eurobank and NBG’s ratings are rated in line with Greece’s sovereign rating (investment grade), while the positive outlooks on Piraeus and Alpha reflect Fitch expectations that the two banks will continue reducing their capital encumbrance from unreserved problem assets as they finalize their asset-quality clean-ups. The upgrade of the four systemic banks mainly reflects improvements in their standalone credit profiles, including a longer track record of sound earnings generation, the completion of most of their asset-quality clean-up, strengthened capital positions and stable deposit-based funding. The news is positive and expected.

Electricity Suppliers announced lower tariffs for March

The electricity suppliers announced flattish tariffs for March, driven by the lower wholesale price (wholesale electricity price in March shaped at EUR 105.91/MWh from EUR 154.09/MWh in February). In this context, PPC announced lower by 24.6% m-o-m tariffs for April at EUR 111.7/MWh and EUR 155/MWh respectively.

Company Headlines

MOH || BUY | CP: 22.32 | TP: EUR 29.90

4Q24e Results Preview | solid quarter and year, despite the refining margins correction and the fire in the CDU; EUR 1.10 DPS

MOH is scheduled to release its 4Q24e results today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call tomorrow at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 176m (-48.4% y-o-y, in line with consensus) and “adjusted” net income of EUR 62m (also in line with consensus) from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 178m in 4Q23. Accounting for EUR 54m expected gains from inventory and one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 220 (-2.2% y-o-y) and IFRS net Profits of EUR 90m, +1.8% y-o-y. In FY24e terms, we forecast EBITDA adj. and Net Profits adj. at EUR 997 and EUR 523m, down by -32.7% and -40.6% respectively.  Finally, we expect MOH to declare a remaining DPS of EUR 1.10 (DY: 4.8%, ex-date: 25 June; total FY24 DPS at EUR 1.40/share).

The benchmark index posted c.0.8% gains on Tuesday, with banks recovering following Monday’s sell-off, while turnover amounted to EUR 150m. The banking idenx rose 1.5% on the day, driven by Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank up 2.2% and 2.1% respectively, followed by Eurobank gaining 1.3% and NBG at +0.6%. On non financials, PPA stood out, rising 12.6%, OPAP gained 1.3%, PPC and Metlen were both up 0.5% and Jumbo finished flattish (+0.3%). Cenergy finished on red territory, slipping 0.9%, with Lamda, Titan and ATHEX flattish. Motor Oil and Trade Estates report FY24 results today. 

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO I

According to ELSTAT, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 8.6% in February 2025, compared to 11.5% in February 2024 and 9.1% in January 2025.

MACRO II

According to Eurostat’s estimates, inflation in Greece will stand at 3.1% in March 2025 vs 3.0% in February.

BANKS

Fitch upgraded NBG’s and Eurobank’s credit rating to BBB-, from BB+, with a stable outlook, as well as Alpha Bank’s and Piraeus Bank’s to BB+, from BB, with a positive outlook.

PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY <PPA GA>

During the conference call management guided capex for 2025 to stand around EUR 100m, with the expansion of the cruise terminal to be completed in the next 2.5 years. PPA’s total mandatory capex amounts to EUR 300m, of which EUR 168m have already been spent by the end of 2024. Following the completion of the mandatory capex, the company will implement the construction of a new passenger terminal with a budget of EUR 80m and the construction of a new logistic center with a EUR 60m budget.

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

Motor Oil is due to report FY24 numbers today, after the close. Consensus calls for 4Q24 Adj. EBITDA of EUR 170m (EUR 991m FY24E) with Adj net profit of EUR 61m (EUR 522m for FY24E). A conference call is scheduled to take place tomorrow, Thursday April 3^rd at 17.30 GR time (dial-ins available upon publication of results).

INTRALOT <INLOT GA, OW>

Intralot announced the extension of the maturity of the EUR 100m bond loan to January 2026, from June 2025 previously.

TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>

Trade Estates will report FY24 numbers today, before the market opens. A conference call is scheduled for April 3^rd, at 17:30 GR time. Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.

Market Comment // The Greek market rebounded on Tuesday, trading in positive territory throughout the session and closing 0.78% higher at 1,698.3 points, tracking gains in international markets. Trading activity was more subdued though, with turnover at €150mn, below the 100-day moving average of €180mn. PPA stood out among gainers popping +12.66%, followed by strong gains in Performance (+7.38%), ADMIE (+4.3%), and Optima Bank (+3.13%), with Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank also advancing >2%. Conversely, Coca-Cola HBC (-1.28%) was among the main laggards, followed by modest losses (<1%) in Cenergy, Quest, Aktor, Intralot, Lamda, Hellenic Exchanges, TITC, Bank of Cyprus, Viohalco, Austriacard, and Premia. EU futures are set to open lower today, as markets await President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement later in the day.

Motor Oil // Scheduled to release its Q4/FY’24 results today, post-market close. Accounting for the impact of the fire incident and a reversion of refining margins to mid-cycle levels, we project Q4’24 revenue at €2.22bn (-34% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €152mn (-55% yoy), reflecting a realized adjusted refining margin of $87/MT (vs $108/MT in Q4’23). On an annual basis, our estimates point to FY’24 revenue of €11.6bn (-13% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA of €974mn (-34% yoy). At the bottom line, we estimate Q4’24 adjusted net income at €50mn, bringing FY’24 adjusted net income to €487mn. We have penciled in a final dividend of €0.85/share, but see upside risk, considering the robust margins realized in recent months, further underpinning the cash flow profile.

Metlen // In our new report “London calling, with €2bn EBITDA in sight”, we flag 2025 as a turning point, with the CMD in 28th April set to unveil a refreshed 2025–2028 strategy ahead of the LSE listing in early Q3. After delivering €1.08bn EBITDA in FY’24 (+8% yoy), Metlen seems to target around €2bn by 2028 (CAGR: 17%), supporting renewed investor interest. Metlen’s investment case is underpinned by the €295.5mn Metals expansion (doubling bauxite, boosting alumina by 45%, and adding gallium), the Group’s expanding 14GW mature RES portfolio and the enhanced visibility provided by the deal with PPC as well as the expanding vertically integrated utility, benefiting from widening spark spreads in generation and volume-driven growth in supply. We lower our 2025–26e EBITDA by 5%, but lift outer-year estimates by 7%, raising our PT to €51.0. Metlen’s 9% 3Y EBITDA CAGR and LSE listing catalyst justify its a premium to peers, with our PT placing the stock at 7.8x 1yr fwd EV/EBITDA.

Greek Banks // Fitch upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Eurobank S.A. and National Bank of Greece S.A. (NBG) by one notch to ‘BBB-’/Stable from ‘BB+’/Positive, marking their return to investment grade. At the same time, Fitch raised the IDRs of Alpha Bank S.A. and Piraeus Bank S.A. to ‘BB+’/Positive from ‘BB’/Positive. The upgrades primarily reflect improvements in the banks’ standalone credit profiles, including a more sustained track record of sound earnings generation, the near-completion of their asset quality clean-up, stronger capital positions, and continued reliance on stable, deposit-based funding.

Sarantis // In our update report “Firing on all cylinders, with margins shifting up a gear” we have increased our PT to €15.5, reiterating the stock as top pick given the combination of a 2-digit growth outlook (at the high end among GR non financials) and the compelling valuation (>25% discount to EU HPC peers). We have adjusted our projections following management’s upbeat guidance lifting slightly our EBIT forecasts on better margins (to 11.1% in 2025) led by synergies from the Stella Pack integration, further SKU rationalization, mix enhancement and operating leverage. We expect >10% EBIT CAGR by 2028e, bringing the 2028 EBIT margin to 12.6% (vs 13-15% cross cycle for EU HPC peers).

Briq // BriQ announced its FY’24 results broadly in line with our estimates, reporting revenue of €15.7m, up €6.6m, and adj. EBITDA of €13m (+€6.1m yoy), driven by the integration of ICI assets. Net profit shaped at €29.3m (vs. €14.1m in FY’23). Annualized rental income (i.e. assuming full year contribution from ICI) stands at c€21mn according to management—in line with our projection. GAV rose to c€285m (vs €149mn in Dec’23), while NAV climbed to €152.5m (€3.43/share) from €108.6mn (€3.07/share) in Dec 2023. The proposed dividend has been set at €0.135/share (5.3% yield), while management also introduced a four-year scrip dividend program totaling €30m. FY’25 guidance points to adj. EBITDA growth of c30%, again broadly in symphony with our modelling (>€17mn).

Trade Estates // Trade Estates is set to release its FY’24 results today before market open. We expect gross rental income to reach €36mn (+51% yoy; vs €23.9mn in FY’23) and adjusted EBITDA at €29.2mn (+€11mn yoy), primarily driven by the full-year integration of Smart Park. We estimate net profit to settle at €25.2mn (vs €37.1mn in FY’23), reflecting lower revaluation gains of €17.7mn (vs c€30mn last year). We expect GAV to rise to c€596mn (vs €477mn in Dec’23), with NAV at €318mn (€2.64/share). This would place the current valuation at c39% discount to NAV. On the dividend front, we expect a total DPS of €0.10 for the year (6.2% yield), with an implied final dividend of €0.06 (3.5% yield).

ATHEX // The Greek government submitted a long-awaited capital markets reform bill to Parliament yesterday, aiming to support ATHEX’s reclassification as a developed market. The proposed legislation focuses on three strategic pillars: (1) tax incentives to attract both domestic and foreign capital, (2) a more robust supervisory framework to enhance investor confidence, and (3) the introduction of a regulatory framework for crypto assets, aligning with evolving EU directives.