Coca Cola HBC: Αύξηση εσόδων 13,7% στο εννεάµηνο, ανεβάζει το guidance. Ενισχυµένος ο όγκος πωλήσεων κατά 4% το τρίτο τρίµηνο, µε την εισηγµένη να αυξάνει τις προβλέψεις της για το σύνολο της χρήσης.
ΟΛΠ: Ξεπέρασαν τα 70 εκατ. ευρώ τα καθαρά κέρδη στο εννεάµηνο. Σε νέα ιστορικά υψηλά τα µεγέθη του ΟΛΠ στο εννεάµηνο. Άνοδος 6,2% στα έσοδα, τα οποία ανήλθαν στα 174,92 εκατ. ευρώ. Ιδιαίτερα ξεχώρισαν οι τοµείς Κρουαζιέρας, Σταθµού Εµπορευµατοκιβωτίων και Σταθµού Αυτοκινήτων, καθώς και η Ακτοπλοΐα.
Wood: O οίκος προβλέπει ανάπτυξη 2,4% φέτος και 2,3% το 2025.
Στο 9,3% υποχώρησε η ανεργία στην Ελλάδα το Σεπτέµβριο.
Μειωµένο εµφανίζεται το περιθώριο επιτοκίου µεταξύ των νέων καταθέσεων και δανείων, καθώς υποχώρησε στις 5,07 εκατοστιαίες µονάδες, από 5,30 µονάδες τον Αύγουστο και 5,29 µονάδες τον Ιούλιο.
ATHEX headed marginally north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.06% at 1,382.68 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.30%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.64%, Banks Index: -0.09%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 148.2m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 134.9m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels ahead of US elections, with Piraeus Financial Holdings in focus.
Macro Headlines
Greek HICP slightly up in October (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.2% in October (and up by 0.2% m-o-m), slightly up compared to 3.1% in September and well above the respective EU area figure (down to 2.0% in October from 1.7% in September).
Greek unemployment decreased to 9.3% in September
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 9.3% in September 2024, lower from 9.5% in August 2024 and lower than 10.7% in September 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 437,648, lower by 13.1% y-o-y and lower by 1.7% m-o-m.
Retail Sales down in August (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) decreased by 1.1% y-o-y in August 2024 (while decreased by 4.3% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales decreased by 1.8% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 0.4% y-o-y, on higher prices with sales volume down by (1.3% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales decreased by 1.8% y-o-y with sales volume down by 20.8% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 6.0% y-o-y, with sales volume slightly down by 0.1% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Systemic banks wait for the green light from SSM on DTC acceleration-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), the CEOs of the four systemic banks informed yesterday the Governor of Bank of Greece that they wait for the green light from SSM to accelerate the DTC amortization, so that the repayment to be completed between 2030-2033. Moreover, net credit expansion is on track with FY targets, boosted also by the loan of EUR 3.0bn to Attiki Odos in October. Recall that NCE reached EUR ca3.6bn over January-September 2024.
Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans narrowed by 23bps m-o-m to 5.61% in September 2024, whilst the average interest rate on new production of deposits was flattish at 0.54%. The drop in the average interest rate on new loan production by 23bps m-o-m is attributed to lower interest rates on business (-33bps m-o-m) and on housing loans (-18bps m-o-m). Thus, the interest rate spread for new production squeezed by 23bp m-o-m to 5.07%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread squeezed by 8bps m-o-m to 5.45%.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Financial Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 3.4380 | TP: EUR 6.00
3Q24 Preview | Another strong quarter despite seasonality, reiterate Buy
Preview | Piraeus Financial Holdings is set to report 3Q/9M24 results today at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time. Management will host a conference call at 15:00 Athens/13:00 London Time. We anticipate another strong quarter despite the seasonality, on the back of resilient NII and OpEx that will offset lower fee income as well as higher LLPs. We also anticipate net credit expansion to remain positive, deposit volumes to accelerate q-o-q and asset quality dynamics to be flattish.
9M2024 results | We project reported net profit to reach EUR 872.8m (+51% y-o-y), on the back of higher NII (+7% y-o-y), fee income (+20% y-o-y) and lower loan loss provisions (-66% y-o-y).
3Q24 Results | We estimate that reported net profit will stand at EUR 310.0m (-6% q-o-q, +12% y-o-y) in 3Q24, marginally above the median consensus estimate of EUR 305.0m. Overall, we anticipate bottom line to be burdened by one-off costs of EUR 4.0m. In more detail, we project that NII will reach EUR 528.3m (0% q-o-q, -1% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 522.0m. We also project fee income to stand at EUR 159.0m (-11% q-o-q, +14% y-o-y), slightly above consensus estimate of EUR 155.0m. The sequential drop in fee income is attributed to a one-off item that boosted cards fees in 2Q. Thus, we expect core income to reach EUR 687.3m (-3% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y). We also estimate non-core revenues to be flattish q-o-q at EUR 19.2m against consensus estimate of EUR 10.0m. All in all, we anticipate total revenues to shape at EUR 706.5m (-3% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y), higher than the median consensus estimate of EUR 689.0m. On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to remain flat q-o-q at EUR 203.3m (+4% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 204.0m. Our estimate incorporates a one-off cost of EUR 4.0m for the quarter. We also project LLPs (including associates’ income) to stand at EUR 52.5m (+21% q-o-q, -31% y-o-y), assuming an organic CoR of 56bps for the quarter.
Optima View | Piraeus is trading 0.64x P/TBV24E, at a material discount of 43% to European banks, despite its higher RoaTBV generation at 15.4% vs. 14.0% of EU peers. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 6.00/share, implying a 66% potential upside.
Motodynamics CC highlights
During the conference call, management stated that: a) 2024 will be a record year for the company in terms of revenue and profitability, b) margins are under pressure for all segments due to high competition and the ease of supply chain disruptions, c) in 4Q24 net debt of the company will be further reduced as income from fleet sales will be accelerated, d) Yamaha business is gaining market share, e) Porsche division is betting big on sales of the new Macan as electric car sales accelerate, f) the Sixt branch network is now expanding to major Greek ports with three new stations in the ports of Aktion, Paros and Heraklion; g) the FY24 forecast is for sales growth in line with 9M24 growth despite seasonality, finally management will propose for dividend distribution at least the same amount as last year.
PPA 1H24 results out
Piraeus Port Authority announced a strong set of 9M24 results yesterday, with revenues up by 6.2% y-o-y to EUR 174.9m, EBITDA at 103.3M, up by 3.4%, profits before taxes up by 8.5% y-o-y at EUR 90.9m and net income increasing by 6.6% y-o-y to EUR 70.2m.
PPC Share Buyback
The company announced that during 24/10/2024 – 30/10/2024, it purchased 309,517 own shares at an average price of EUR 11.8342 per share and now holds 28,658,582 own shares or 7.502% of the total shares outstanding.
The market finished the day on the flatline, erasing early gains, on a relatively EUR 148.2m turnover. Banks also ended the trading session flat, with Bank of Cyprus and Alpha Bank recording 0.9% and 0.7% gains respectively, whereas Eurobank slipped 0.5%. On non-financials Lamda and Helleniq Energy outperformed up 2.9% and 2.7% respectively, PPC rose 2.1%, followed by PPA +1.6% and OPAP+1%. OTE recorded the biggest drop at -3.6% following the Romania announcement, Metlen closed 2.2% lower, while Jumbo recorded 2% losses and GEK Terna was down 1%. Today, Piraeus Bank reports its 3Q24 results at 10:00 GR time.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
*According to ELSTAT, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate moderated to 9.3% in September 2024, compared to 10.7% in September 2023 and 9.5% in August.
*Based on ELSTAT’s data, the Volume Index in retail trade marked a 5.2% yoy drop in August 2024. YTD retail sales are up c.4% as per volumes.
*According to Eurostat’s estimates, annual inflation in Greece stood at 3.2% in October 2024, vs 3.1% in August.
BANKS I
Reportedly, the Governor of the Bank of Greece and the banks discussed yesterday and agreed on the DTC issue.
BANKS II
According to BoG, the average interest rates on loans stood at 5.97% in September vs. 6.06% in August. On new disbursements, the average loan yield dropped to 5.61% vs. 5.84% in August. On the deposit side, the average cost on new balances stood at 54bps (flattish mom) with time deposit rates in the retail space marginally down (1.86% vs. 1.88% in Aug).
OTE <HTO GA>
OTE announced that the company signed a MoU with Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania regarding the sale of Telekom Romania Mobile to the two parties. We remind that in May 2024 OTE had announced that following the decision of Mr Adrian Tomsa to withdrew from the negotiations for the potential disposal in Telekom Romania Mobile, OTE entered into discussions with Digi. The negotiations have now widened to include Vodaphone Romania with the MoU providing that certain assets would be acquired by Digi and the remaining by Vodaphone Romania.
PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY <PPA GA>
PPA reported its 9M24 results yesterday, with revenues reaching EUR 174.9m, up 6.2% yoy, driven by the strong growth in the Car Terminal, Cruise and Pier I segments. Specifically, Car Terminal revenues rose 34.7% yoy, standing at EUR 22m, Cruise Container turnover recorded a 22.7% yoy increase at EUR 24.4m, while Container PIER I revenues amounted to EUR 59.8m, up 5.4% yoy. Group EBITDA and EBIT for the period stood at EUR 103.2m and EUR 88.8m respectively, both marking a c.3.4% yoy advance, while net profits increased 6.6% yoy to EUR 70.2m.
COCA COLA HBC <EEE GA>
The company published its 3Q24 sales update, reporting Group revenues of EUR 3bn, up c.9% yoy, slightly below Bloomberg consensus for EUR c.3.3bn turnover, while organic growth accelerated at c.14% yoy. Growth was driven by the Developing markets’ sales standing at EUR 676.6m, up 14% yoy, followed by the Emerging markets segment rising 10.2% yoy, with EUR 1.3bn sales, while Established markets revenue grew at a 4.1% yoy pace, amounting to EUR 998.9m.
Following the 3Q24 performance, management upgraded the guidance for FY24, aiming for 11% to 13% organic revenue growth, from 8%-12% previously and 10% to 12% Organic EBIT growth, from 7%-12%.
Market comment // The Greek market eked out marginal gains (+0.06%) on Thursday in a volatile session, with the ASE closing at 1.382,68 points. On a monthly basis, the main gauge shed 4.8%, limiting its ytd gains to 6.9%, with Greek Banks -8.3% in October and +8.0% ytd. Yesterday, trading activity shaped at €148m, above the 100-d MA of c€119m. Among gainers, Lamda stood out rallying 2.92%, followed by HelleniQ Energy (+2.76%), Autohellas (+2.71%), ADMIE (+2.6%), Ellaktor (+2.19%) and PPC (+2.12%). Papoutsanis, Titan, Optima Bank, Dimand, Cenergy and Fourlis also recorded >1.5% gains. On the flipside, OTE (-3.68%), Metlen (-2.26%), Intralot (-2.1%) and Jumbo (-2.0%) led laggards, trailed by more moderate losses in GEK Terna, CCH, Viohalco, Profile and Athex. EU futures point to a slightly positive opening today as markets seek to reclaim some of their recent losses although traders are likely to be kept on edge ahead of US macro data and elections next week.
Piraeus Bank // Piraeus will report Q3 2024 earnings today before market opening, followed by a conference call at 13:00 UK (15:00 GR). We expect adjusted net profit to decline to €298mn from €333mn in Q2’24, mainly due to last quarter’s strong fee performance, alongside marginally lower NII, higher OpEx, and increased impairments. Despite this, adjusted RoTE is projected at 16.5% for Q3 and 17.5% for 9M, exceeding the FY’24 guidance of 16.0%. NII should remain resilient at €525m (flat qoq and just down 1% yoy), impacted by higher deposit costs and MREL issuance since July, while the full effects of rate cuts are yet to be seen on loans and ECB cash holdings. Fee income is set to fall 15% from Q2’s record (to €153mn), bringing total operating income to €688mn (-5% qoq). We see recurring OpEx rising 4% to €217mn, while CoR, at c53bps, will stay well below the 70bps guidance.
Banks // The CEOs of Greece’s four systemic banks met yesterday with the Bank of Greece Governor to discuss plans to double the annual amortization of Deferred Tax Credits (DTCs). This initiative aims to enhance banks’ capital structures and to reduce reliance on state-backed tax assets. Currently, DTCs constitute a significant portion of CET1, with figures exceeding 60% in some cases. The proposed increase would raise the total annual amortization from c€750m to between €1.3bn and €1.5bn.
Banks // New originations’ loan-deposit spread was down by 23bps in September, with the back book spread also tightening by 8bps.
OPAP // Ex-div on 4th November, gross interim DPS of €0.6028 (slightly increased from €0.60 initially, reflecting the top-up corresponding to OPAP’s 11.3m own shares). Post 5% withholding tax, the net DPS will settle at €0.573 (3.7% net yield)
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
