Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (01.03.2024)

Άνοδο κατά 1,21% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης της αγοράς κλείνοντας στις 1424,77 µονάδες (στο +4,19% ο Γ.∆. & στο +5,54% οι τράπεζες το Φεβρουάριο). Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 192,9 εκ. ευρώ (τα 100 εκ. ευρώ στο rebalancing). Οι αγοραστές ανέλαβαν από νωρίς την υπεροπλία και πέτυχαν να διαµορφώσουν αδιάλειπτα ανοδική κίνηση στο Γ.∆. Μάλιστα, ο τζίρος των €100 εκ. που διενεργήθηκε στις δηµοπρασίες επέτρεψε να γίνει το κλείσιµο στο υψηλό ηµέρα που είναι και υψηλό έτους αλλά και των τελευταίων 13 ετών. Με οδηγό τις τράπεζες αλλά και άλλους δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους (ΟΤΕ, ΕΛΠΕ, Cenergy) ενόψει των ανακοινώσεων για το placement της Πειραιώς. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,392%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,88%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε την Πειραιώς (+5,22%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε ο ΟΤΕ (+3,25%), η Cenergy (+2,86%), η Helleniq Energy (+3,83%), η ΕΛΧΑ (+4,63%), η ∆ΕΗ (+1,77%), η ΜΟΗ (+0,76%) αλλά και η ΕΧΑΕ (+1,10%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε ο Ελλάκτωρ (-1,29%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-0,28%) και από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση ο ΟΛΠ (-3,18%). Απολογιστικά, 72 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 33 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η επαναφορά του Γ.∆. σε ανοδική κατεύθυνση στέφθηκε από επιτυχία µε το rebalancing να συνεισφέρει στον αυξηµένο τζίρο και να τον οδηγεί στα υψηλά έτους. Η ολοκλήρωση της απεξάρτησης της Πειραιώς από τη µετοχική σύνδεσή της µε το κράτος, δικαιολογεί τη συντήρηση του θετικού momentum στο Χ.Α. στην τελευταία συνεδρίαση της εβδοµάδος.

Entersoft αποτελέσµατα 2023: Έσοδα €37,8 εκατ., +28% σε σχέση µε την οικονοµική χρήση 2022 (€29,6 εκατ.). EBITDA €12,7 εκατ., αυξηµένα κατά 33% σε σχέση µε την αντίστοιχη περυσινή χρήση (€9,5 εκατ.). Κέρδη προ φόρων €8,8 εκατ., +31% σε σύγκριση µε την οικονοµική χρήση 2022 (€6,7 εκατ.). Ταµειακά διαθέσιµα €11,2 εκατ. έναντι €14,8 εκατ. στο τέλος της περυσινής χρήσης. Για το 2024 η Εταιρεία θα συνεχίσει σε παρόµοιο δρόµο και θα επιδιώξει ισχυρούς διψήφιους ρυθµούς οργανικής ανάπτυξης. Θα συνεχίσει την αναζήτηση νέων ευκαιριών εξαγορών τόσο στην Ελλάδα όσο και στη Ρουµανία.

Η µετοχή του ΟΤΕ έχει περιθώριο ανόδου πάνω από 70%, ενώ η προσδοκώµενη απόδοση είναι της τάξεως του 75% µαζί µε το µέρισµα, σύµφωνα µε τη νέα τιµή-στόχο που δίνει η αµερικανική τράπεζα Citi στα 23 ευρώ ανά µετοχή από 21 ευρώ ανά µετοχή, προγενέστερα. Η σύστασή της για τη µετοχή του Οργανισµού παραµένει «αγορά». Ιανουάριος: Στο -7% ο δείκτης τιµών παραγωγού στη βιοµηχανία.

ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Πληθωριστική άνοδος 7,3% στον τζίρο του λιανεµπορίου τον ∆εκέµβριο. Σε σταθερές τιµές ο κύκλος εργασιών παρουσίασε άνοδο µόλις 0,7% σε ετήσια βάση.

Helleniq Energy: Ισχυρή κερδοφορία το 2023 και θετικά λειτουργικά αποτελέσµατα σε όλες τις δραστηριότητες. Στα €1,24 δισ. τα Συγκρίσιµα ετήσια EBITDA και στα €606 εκατ. τα καθαρά κέρδη. Πρόταση στη Γ.Σ. για επιπλέον µέρισµα €0,60 ανά µετοχή. Συνολικό µέρισµα €0,90 ανά µετοχή. Σε υψηλά επίπεδα η απόδοση των διυλιστηρίων και οι εξαγωγές. Ευνοϊκά διεθνή περιθώρια διύλισης και βελτιωµένη επίδοση από τις ΑΠΕ. Πρόοδος σε όλους τους στρατηγικούς άξονες του Vision 2025. Επενδύσεις €291 εκατ. µε έµφαση στην αναβάθµιση των διυλιστηρίων. Επιτάχυνση στην υλοποίηση του πλάνου για τις ΑΠΕ, µε στόχο ισχύ 1 GW µέχρι το 2025. Η παραγωγή προϊόντων για το σύνολο του 2023 αυξήθηκε κατά 13% στους 14,6 εκατ. τόνους και οι πωλήσεις διαµορφώθηκαν στους 15,5 εκατ. τόνους, µε τις εξαγωγές να ανέρχονται στο 54% των συνολικών όγκων. Στη δε Κρήτη, τρισδιάστατες γεωφυσικές καταγραφές υλοποιούνται στην περιοχή . Τέλη του χρόνου οι αποφάσεις για ερευνητικές γεωτρήσεις στην Κρήτη. Trade Estates: Στις 31.12.2023, το χαρτοφυλάκιο των επενδυτικών ακινήτων της Εταιρείας, περιλάµβανε συνολικά 15 ακίνητα αξίας €477,2 εκατ., έναντι 10 ακινήτων αξίας €288,8 εκατ. την 31.12.2022.

* Piraeus Bank (TPEIR GA): terms of the HFSF offering reportedly to be finalised over the weekend, books likely to open on Monday; to propose up to €0.063/sh 2023 dividend

* HelleniQ Energy (ELPE GA): 4Q23 earnings beat; upside risk to earnings estimates

* Fourlis (FOYRK GA): Trade Estates (TRESTATE GA) GAV jumped to €477m at end-2023 from €289m a year ago, with Smart Park adding €110m to the REIC’s total

* PPC (PPC GA) concludes deal for RES partnership with domestic contractor Intrakat (INKAT GA)

* Electricity consumption dived 9.0% y-o-y in January, driven by particularly mild weather conditions

* Retail sales fall 2.1% in 2023

ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.21% at 1,424.77 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.30%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.37%, Banks Index: +1.88%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 191.2m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 94.6m. We expect the positive momentum to continue in ATHEX today, with HELLENiQ ENERGY and Piraeus Financial Holdings in focus.

Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 4Q23 remained at high levels of USD 16.1/bbl from USD 20.5/bbl in 3Q23 and USD 25.3/bbl in 4Q22, well outperforming the USD 7.5/bbl benchmark margin, mainly on wider cracks. The refinery utilization rate in 4Q23 was 106% vs. 97% a year ago (4Q22 performance was partially impacted by the shut-down of Thessaloniki refinery for maintenance). Sales volume was consequently up by 11% YoY to 4.18m tons, driven by a 22% YoY rise in exports sales to 2,173 tons. All in, 4Q23 “adjusted” EBITDA skyrocketed to EUR 236m (vs. EUR 440 a year ago). On a FY23 basis, adjusted EBITDA shapes at EUR 1,043m (vs. EUR 1,384m in FY22).

Marketing: Domestic demand in 4Q23 dropped by 10% YoY driven by lower by 35% heating oil demand (automotive +5%). Jet fuel demand was also up by 19% YoY (driven by the full recovery of tourism), while bunkering demand also rose by 13% YoY. Consequently, domestic EBITDA dropped to EUR 1m (from EUR 3m last year), as the cap on retail margins continue to weigh on profitability, while international marketing EBITDA was down by 14% YoY to EUR 14m. On a FY23 basis, Marketing “adjusted” EBITDA contributed EUR 111m, representing a 20% YoY drop.

Petrochemicals: Weak PP margins led to reduced petchems contribution led Adj. EBITDA lower by 48% YoY at EUR 8m in 4Q22, with the FY23 figure also down by 42% to EUR 43m.

Power & gas (equity consolidation): Elpedison’s EBITDA contribution turned negative at EUR 3m from EUR +18m in 4Q22 on lower thermal generation anf natural gas trading, while FY23 EBITDA  dropped by 68% to EUR 18m (from EUR 26m in 2022). DEPA contribution was positive at EUR 3m, with 2023 contribution standing at EUR -2m, from +29m in 2022.

RES: segmental profitability in 4Q23 shaped at EUR 8m (from EUR 9m a year ago), driven by weaker load factors, which more than offset the expansion of installed capacity to 356MW by 4Q23-end (from 341MW a year ago)

FCF & Net debt: FCF in 2023 was strong at EUR 726m from FCF of EUR 397m in 2022 on strong operating profitability profitability and favorable WC movement (mainly driven by lower oil prices) which offset the increased investing outflows of EUR 239m vs. EUR 227m last year. After paying EUR 233m for dividends and EUR 128m for interest expenses, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) dropped by 315m YoY at the end of 2023 at EUR 1.63bn from.

Conference call comments: a) Management expects strong refining environment to continue in the medium term, margins to remain above the mid-cycle levels, b) RES capacity currently at 356MW, total portfolio 2GW, 700MW under development, expects 1,080MW operating by 2025-end and >2GW by 2030, c) implementing a Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) co-processing unit in Thessaloniki, d) expansion in the PP production plant already in progress, e) expects FID for first test drilling for Natural Gas in SW of Crete to be taken in 4Q24

Entersoft delivered a strong set of 2023 results, guides for strong double-digit growth

Group revenues came in at EUR 37.8m (+28% y-o-y), o/w Greece at EUR 31.4m (+28% y-o-y) and Romania at EUR 4.4m (+22% y-o-y), EBITDA came in at EUR 12.7m (+33% y-o-y), with EBITDA margin at 33.6% vs. 32.1% in 2022 and EBT reached EUR 8.8m (+31% y-o-y). Net cash decreased to EUR 2.7m from EUR 3.8m in 2022. Recall that the company invested EUR 5.9m in three acquisitions and distributed dividends of EUR 3.0m. Management guided for strong double-digit organic growth, with revenues up 30-40% and EBITDA up 10% in 2024 as well as is seeking for new acquisition opportunities in both Greece and Romania.

Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares

The company announced that the Chairman of the BoD and CEO acquired on 29 February, 420,000 common shares at an average price of EUR 1.224 and a total value of EUR 514,143.97.

ElvalHalcor FY23 results release date

ElvalHalcor will release the FY23 results on Tuesday, 5^th March after the market close

Trade Estates’ portfolio value up on 31 December 2023

Trade Estates announced that on 31st December 2023, the fair value of its portfolio, comprising 15 investment properties and participations, amounted to EUR 477m compared to EUR 288m a year ago.

Motodynamics Financial Calendar 2024

The company is set to report FY23 results on Wednesday 20 March, the AGM will take place the following day and the company announced that will it distribute a dividend from 2023 profits.

Gains of 1.2% for the ASE Benchmark Index with strong EUR 191m turnover (on MSCI small cap rebalancing). A good day for the banks (1.9%) led by Piraeus Bank (+5.2%). From the non-banks, HELLENiQ Energy recorded gains of 3.8% on strong results with Hellenic Telecom at +3.3%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

Retail sales in Dec increased by 0.7% yoy (in volume) and 7.3% yoy (in value).

BANKS

Reportedly, the banks and the MoF have agreed to reduced POS fees for small transactions.

We expect the impact to be marginal.

HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>

HELLENiQ Energy reported a strong set of results, above consensus estimates on the back of supportive refining margins, higher refining capacity and RES penetration. HELLENiQ has also announced a final DPS distribution of EUR 0.60/share (Euroxx est. EUR 0.50/share) subject to AGM approval in June. Dividend translates into a dividend yield of 11% as of today’s close and a 45% payout on adjusted net income, in line with management guidance.

On a quarterly basis, adj EBITDA stood at EUR 269m, down 42% yoy on the lower refining margin environment, while adj. net income came in at EUR 111m, down 57% yoy. CAPEX for 4Q23 was EUR 90m. On a yearly basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 1,237m, down 23% yoy with adj net income at EUR 606m, fully in line with our estimates. Financing costs increased yoy due to higher base rate, while Capex for the full year stood at EUR 290m, with HELLENiQ delivering operating cashflow of EUR 965m and a net debt of EUR 1.63bn, reduced by EUR 0.3bn yoy.

Refining adj. EBITDA for the quarter stood at EUR 236m (EUR 1,043m in FY23), driven by a high refining margin environment, outperformance of benchmark margin and increased volume sold. Production for the year increased 14% yoy in total, with export sales accounting for 54%. Petrochemicals continued to underperform, on demand/supply disequilibrium driving polypropylene margins lower, delivering EUR 43m EBITDA for the year, down 44% yoy. PP plant expansion is in progress, targeting completion by 2025.  On RES, HELLENiQ ended the year with 356MW installed capacity, fully operational. 260MW are currently under construction and should be operational by the end of the year (50% estimated project completion by 1H24E). The company has also currently 700MW under construction/advanced stage/ready to build.

Power generation. Challenging quarter for Elpedison, lower production due to Thisvi plant availability, coupled with limited opportunities on gas supply and trading side. With regards to DEPA, the segment reported marginally negative profitability on reduced contribution and natural gas demand.

Upstream. Seismic surveys should yield results towards 4Q24, paving the way for further evaluation and Final Investment Decision. In the case of going ahead, preparation for exploration and drilling takes at least 12-18 months.

HELLENiQ reported strong 4Q23/FY23 numbers, beating market’s expectations. During the call, management stressed, among other things, its focus on 1) investing in human capital, 2) selecting projects that add value without burning too much capital and 3) working towards achieving operational excellence. On RES, we expect HELLENiQ to comfortably meet its 1.0GW installed capacity by 2025E. Stock performance and liquidity have been notably improved, while press reports for a second placement within the year should further enhance liquidity, in our view. The solid results, combined with a higher-than-expected shareholders’ remuneration reiterate our overweight rating on HELLENiQ.

TRADE ESTATES <TRESTATE GA>

Trade Estates announced that the total value of the investment properties as of Dec 2023 stood at EUR 477m vs. EUR 288.8m in Dec 2022.

Market Comment // In a positive session on Thursday, Greek stocks staged an impressive comeback mostly thanks to a bounce in banking stocks, with the ASE managing to eke out gains of 1.2% closing at 1,424.77 points. Trading activity shot up to €191m, well above the 100-d moving average of €118m due to MSCI rebalancing related flow. Overall, the ASE crystallised gains of 4.2% in February led by a 5.5% rally for banks. As for yesterday, among the main gainers were Intralot, Entersoft and Piraeus, which popped 7.0%, 5.4% and 5.2% respectively.  ElvalHalcor also surged 4.6%, HelleniQ Energy +3.8%, HTO +3.3% while Cenergy and Aegean Airlines advanced more than 2.5%. On the other hand, PPA shed -3.2%, Sarantis fell -2.1%, while Kri-Kri and Autohellas were among smaller cap names retreating less than 1%. For today shares are likely to grind higher as investors rekindle risk appetite in the light of US inflation data in symphony with forecasts.

HelleniQ Energy // FY’23 results landed in line with our estimates, with adj. EBITDA at €1.2bn (-23% yoy) on the back of ultra-high refining margins for the second consecutive year. Focusing on Q4’23, HelleniQ Energy recorded adj. EBITDA of €269mn (-42% yoy), with Q4 realized margin settling at $16.1/bbl (vs $25.3 in Q4’22). The increased profitability (vs pre-2022 levels) filtered through to adj. net profit of €606mn (-22% yoy), with management proposing a surprising final dividend of €0.60/share (div yield: c7%, 2x our estimate), shaping total investor return for FY’23 at €0.90/share.

Piraeus Bank // According to euro2day, a political decision has been taken to divest the entire stake in Piraeus Bank (27%) held by HFSF. The upcoming meeting of the HFSF’s BoD on Saturday is set to formally ratify the precise percentage and price range for the sale. The outcome of this decision is dependent on the progress of the wall crossing process, which, according to the article, is proceeding more favorably than anticipated. Other press reports suggest that the disposal of the shares will aim for a modest discount of around 5% or slightly more, indicating a pricing above €3.80/share.

Entersoft // Entersoft reported a robust set of FY’23 results, in line with our estimates, with Revenues at €37.8m (+28% yoy, majority organic) and FY’23 EBITDA at €12.7m (+34% yoy) underpinned by new client additions, improved pricing/mix from SaaS, and acquisition add-ons. FY’23 cash generation was also better than we expected, as the company ended on net cash of c€2.7m (vs. EEe €2.3m). In the conference call that followed, mgt offered an optimistic message on the outlook for 2024, providing guidance for FY’24 Revenues in the mid-40s (vs. EEe €46m) and mid-teens FY’24 EBITDA (vs. EEe €15m) on margins near 34-35% (vs. EEe 33%).

Eurobank // Eurobank has entered into a MoU with a subsidiary of the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), aiming to enhance cross-border payments through the utilization of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) technology infrastructure.