25/11- Χ.Α@4μμ: Πολλά, μικρά + μεγάλα ενδιαφέροντα (Νο.2)

Μην παίρνετε ποτέ μεγαλύτερο ρίσκο από αυτό που αντέχει η τσέπη σας. Οι μεγάλες κινήσεις δημιουργούν νευρικότητα και άγχος προκαλώντας τύφλωση στο να ακολουθήσετε το επενδυτικό σας πλάνο. Θέστε πάντα πριν από κάθε επενδυτική κίνηση τα χρήματα που «θέλετε» να χάσετε και εάν τελικά οδηγηθεί εκεί κλείστε τη άμεσα (stop loss) δίχως δεύτερη σκέψη. Στο ταμείο για τα κέρδη της κάθε επένδυσης πάτε με την πώληση και όχι με την αγορά. Μην την αγνοείται.

H EIΔΗΣΗ: Η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή ενέκρινε σήμερα δέσμη μέτρων ώστε να βελτιωθεί η ικανότητα των εταιρειών να αντλούν κεφάλαια σε ολόκληρη την ΕΕ και να διασφαλιστεί ότι στους Ευρωπαίους θα προσφέρονται οι καλύτερες δυνατές συμφωνίες για τις αποταμιεύσεις και τις επενδύσεις τους.

Ένα έτος μετά το σχέδιο δράσης του 2020 για την Ένωση Κεφαλαιαγορών, η Επιτροπή υλοποιεί τις δεσμεύσεις της, προτείνοντας μέτρα για την τόνωση των ευρωπαϊκών κεφαλαιαγορών, αναφέρει ανακοίνωση της Κομισιόν.

Αυτό θα συμβάλει στην οικονομική ανάκαμψη της Ευρώπης από την κρίση της COVID-19, καθώς και στην ψηφιακή και την πράσινη μετάβαση. Επίσης, η Επιτροπή εξέδωσε ανακοίνωση στην οποία καθορίζονται τα μέτρα που θα λάβει κατά το επόμενο έτος για την τόνωση της αγοράς.

Με τις σημερινές προτάσεις θα διασφαλιστεί ότι οι επενδυτές θα έχουν καλύτερη πρόσβαση σε δεδομένα εταιρειών και συναλλαγών.

  • Τα μέτρα θα προαγάγουν επίσης τις μακροπρόθεσμες επενδύσεις και θα καταστήσουν ευκολότερη και ασφαλέστερη τη διασυνοριακή πώληση επενδυτικών κεφαλαίων.
  • Συνολικά, οι προτάσεις που εγκρίθηκαν σήμερα θα αποφέρουν καλύτερη σύνδεση των εταιρειών της ΕΕ με τους επενδυτές, βελτιώνοντας την πρόσβασή τους σε χρηματοδότηση, διευρύνοντας τις επενδυτικές ευκαιρίες για τους ιδιώτες επενδυτές και ολοκληρώνοντας περαιτέρω τις κεφαλαιαγορές της ΕΕ.

COMMENT

OAK: Η Τουρκία είναι μια οικονομία των 800 ΔΙΣΕΚΑΤΟΜΜΥΡΙΩΝ με τεράστια ανοίγματα σε δεκάδες θέματα. Η κατάρρευση της μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε συστημικό θέμα για τις μεγάλες ευρωπαϊκές οικονομίες και τεράστιες εταιρίες. Κάτι τέτοιες αφορμές, ψάχνει το παγκόσμιο σορτοκατεστημένο για να ξεκινήσει ένα καλό Bear market. Ας το έχουμε ως alert στα αυτιά μας, όσο αισιόδοξοι και αν είμαστε.


COMMENT


COMMENT





Eurobank Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 0.925 | TP 1.0

3Q/9M21 Results out on Thursday – Getting to a single digit NPE ratio

Facts: Eurobank is set to release its 3Q/9M21 results on Thursday November 25, post market close. A conference call will follow at 18:00 Athens time. We expect the bank to report satisfactory results, and expect net profits of EUR 109m or EUR 39m inclusive of the Mexico securitisation losses, while most major core lines are seen improving both on a quarterly and yearly basis. Given the agreement over the Mexico securitisation, Eurobank will be the first bank among its Greek peers, to report a single digit NPE ratio, which is seen at 7.3% in 3Q21.

Comment: Core operating trends, should be similar with the previous quarter, with further improvements on fees and provisions and flattish NII and opex. In more details, 3Q21 NII is seen flat YoY, but 2% lower QoQ, due to asset side pressures, which will only be partly mitigated from the liability side and new loan disbursements. Fess on the other hand, are seen 22% higher YoY, on more loan disbursements, network fees and higher asset management and bancassurance fees. On a quarterly basis, fees are expected 5% higher QoQ due the overall better economic activity. Assuming ‘normalised’ trading gains of EUR 18m for the quarter, we see total revenues at EUR 464m, 3% lower QoQ.

EUR m

3Q21e

QoQ

YoY

2Q21

3Q20

9M1e

9M20

YoY

Net Interest Income

330

-2%

0%

335

331

1,000

1,020

-2%

Commission income

116

5%

22%

110

95

325

275

18%

Non-core Revenues

18

-44%

-90%

32

184

63

250

-75%

Total revenues

464

-3%

-24%

478

611

1,389

1,546

-10%

Operating Expenses

218

0%

2%

218

213

651

647

1%

Pre Provision Profits

246

-5%

-38%

260

397

737

899

-18%

Loan Loss Provisions

93

0%

-40%

93

155

317

427

-26%

Net earnings

39

-68%

-54%

120

85

299

-1,081

128%

Source: Eurobank, Optima bank Research

On the cost front, we believe that cost cutting efforts will continue, primarily being driven from lower personnel costs, supported from the latest VRS. Other costs however are expected higher YoY primarily due to higher admin expenses. Specifically, we see total opex flattish QoQ (0%) and 2% higher YoY for the same reason. Still, total costs are seen just 1% higher YoY for the 9-month period. Given the above, we expect quarterly PPI at EUR 246m, 5% lower QoQ. The comparison with the previous quarter and 3Q20 is unfavourable due to the strong non-core revenues reported in these specific periods, as core revenues minus opex will be higher. Finally on provisions, we have factored in a CoR of 100bps, which translates to EUR 93m incremental provisions. All in all, we see quarterly net profits at EUR 109m, but do identify some further upside risk to our forecasts, should the fee, trading and provisioning lines came in better.   

On the balance sheet front, we expect the bank to follow market trends, with higher new loans and higher deposits. On NPE’s, management had stated that flows should deteriorate in 3Q compared to 2Q, guiding for some small new inflows. Still, we will not be surprised if organic flows remain negative in Greece yet for another quarter, given the very strong GDP figures in the period. Finally capital is seen slightly higher, aided from quarterly profitability. We will be focusing on management’s comments over the sale of the merchant acquiring business and its 2022 outlook, especially now that the bank has nearly concluded its clean-up exercise. We reiterate our positive stance on Eurobank, stressing its attractive valuation, with the stock trading 0.57x TBV22e, despite its single digit NPE ratio and the fact that it is heading for a double digit RoE in 2022.

OPAP || BUY | CP: EUR 12.54 | TP: EUR 16.00

Key takeaways from 3Q21 results conference call

Facts: In the conference call for 3Q21 results, OPAP’s management re-affirmed its commitment to pay a minimum DPS of EUR 1.00, while the measures against Covid-19 spread will negatively affect GGR performance (a 10% impact was evident after the imposition of the negative Covid test for non-vaccinated players that become effective on November 8). However, as from November 22 only vaccinated people can enter OPAP stores, which is expected to have a negative impact on retail GGR performance. Management said that government officials committed to agents’ unionists to re-examine this measure.

Comment: Other highlights from the call: 1) Online Games: Stoiximan contributed GGR of EUR 83m (+27% y-o-y), while OPAP Online posted GGR of EUR 14m (+32% y-o-y). Sports betting games accounted for 52.4% of Online GGR, followed by casino games with 43.2% and lottery games (Tzoker) with 4.4%. According to management, online penetration remained increased in 3Q21, despite the re-opening of betting stores. However, the increase in winnings’ taxation and the unfavourable sports results in October weighed on the recent performance of the business. 2) VLTs displayed a very good performance in 3Q21, partially being affected by the new Covid restrictions introduced in September. The net daily drop per machine shaped at EUR 38 in 3Q21 vs. EUR 40 in 2Q21. 3) Lottery games: KINO had a positive performance in 3Q21 that almost offset the soft performance of Tzoker. Management said that it is considering the enrichment of its online product portfolio by adding some numerical lottery games (i.e. KINO) within 2022. 4) Capex: No major investments or M&As for the next year, but the company will pay earn-outs of EUR 100m related to Stoiximan’s acquisition (the main part in 2022).

In a nutshell, management re-affirmed its intention to pay quite generous cash dividends to shareholders, also enriching its online product portfolio (i.e. online KINO). On the negative side, the new restrictions against the spread of Covid-19 have took their on retail GGR performance in November, while some unfavourable sports results have negatively sports betting revenues in October. We remain positive on OPAP.

Fourlis Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 3.875 | TP EUR 4.50

Key takeaways from 1Q21 results conference call

Facts: In the conference call for 3Q21 results, Fourlis’ management appeared optimistic that the externalities stemming from the pandemic will fade away in 2Q 2022, adding that next year’s revenues and profitability will settle above 2021 levels. The company revealed that the IPO of Trade Estate will take place within 2022, adding that less than 50% of the rental income will be contributed by IKEA operations in the next 2-3 years.

Comment: Other key highlights from the call: 1) Guidance for 2021: a) Group EBIT to improve by EUR 20m in 2021 versus 2020. b) Capex to reach EUR 29m (excluding Trade Estate’s capex). c) The company will repay EUR 17m in trade payables to InterIKEA before the end of the year. d) Group sales in November-December are expected to stand 10% below 2019 levels, after a 5% growth in October 2021 (vs. October 2019), reflecting the new restrictions against the spread of Covid-19. 2) New retail concept: The company will announce the representation of a new retail concept in all countries very soon. Management said that it is planning to open 20 stores of the new concept. 3) IKEA investments: The company is planning to open of 1 new medium-size IKEA store in Hellinikon, 2-3 medium-size stores in the rest of Greece and possibly 1 more store in Bulgaria in the next 4 years. The restructuring of IKEA stores in Larissa and Ioannina is expected to be completed by the end of the year. 4) Intersport: In the next 3 years, the company is planning to operate 120 Intersport stores (excluding Turkey) as follows: 60 in Greece (from 54 today), 40 in Romania (from 32 today), 15 in Bulgaria (from 10 today) and 5 in Cyprus (from 7 today). Intersport’s flattish operating profitability in 3Q21 was attributed to: a) the lack of payroll subsidies versus 3Q20 and b) the extra opex relating to the development of omni-channel capabilities. 5) Turkey: The company currently operates 12 Intersport stores in Turkey (vs. 23 stores a year ago) that are profitable at present. The exit from this country is not its first priority. 6) Supply chain issues: According to management, InterIKEA faces supply-chain problems concerning 10% of its SKUs, while NIKE will cover 80%-85% of group’s orders for the Spring/Summer season, promising that there will be no problems in Autumn/Winter season. Overall, the current impact of supply chain problems is estimated at 3%-4% of sales.

The key takeaways from the conference call were the announcement regarding the introduction of a new retail concept in all regions next year, as well as the implementation of an aggressive investment plan in both the retail and the real estate segments. We remain positive on the stock, adopting a cautious stance in the short-term due to the new restrictions imposed in Greece and the Balkans against Covid-19 pandemic.


  • Eurobank (Q3:21 results preview) – MANOS CHATZIDAKIS: 

Eurobank is set to release Q3:21 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. We expect a profitable quarter in the tune of €107m. NII is forecasted at €330m remaining resilient vs. Q2:21 and in line with annual guidance.

  • Commission income is expected higher at €115m up 4.3% q-o-q. Total Income is seen flattish (-1.4%) at €471m and Pr-Provision profits down 2.7% on flat OpEx.

Credit provisions are forecasted lower by 2.3% at €95m. All in PBT should land at €153m down 5.9% q-o-q. Eurobank will report a decrease in its NPE stock to € 2.8bn (-51% q-o-q, -53% y-o-y) as the assets linked to the €3bn Mexico portfolio are classified as “Held-For-Sale” before being deconsolidated from the balance sheet with the relevant NPE ratio sharply down at 7.3%. Eurobank trades at 0.57x its T/BV.

  • The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

Eurobank

Overview

(In Million Euro)

3Q20

2Q21

3Q21 Est.

QoQ

YoY

NII

331.3

335.1

330.0

-1.5%

-0.4%

Fee income

95.1

110.3

115.0

4.3%

20.9%

Trading

174

29

22

-23.3%

-87.4%

Other Income

10

4

4

Total income

610.8

477.5

471.0

-1.4%

-22.9%

Operating costs

-213.4

-218

-218

-0.2%

-2.2%

Pre-provision-profits

397.4

259.9

253.0

-2.7%

-36.3%

Provisions

-155.4

-93

-95

-2.3%

38.9%

Other results

10

-5

-5

-11.1%

-151.5%

PBT

251.7

162.5

153.0

-5.9%

-39.2%

Corporate taxes

80

42

46

8.5%

-42.3%

Net profit

172

120.2

107.1

-10.9%

-37.8%

  • Conference call details (25/11 18:00 GR-Time)

§  Gr: +30 213 009 6000

§  UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA: +1 516 447 5632

§  Other +44 (0) 203 059 5872


AEGEAN AIR (9M:21 review)- MANOS CHATZIDAKIS:

  • Aegean Airlines’ profitability rebounded in Q3:21, reporting profits of €51.3mn against losses of €28.4mn in the year-ago period. “It is important to note that the third quarter of 2021 is the first profitable quarter since the start of the pandemic in which AEGEAN recorded headline profitability by offering 76% of its capacity in ASK’s compared with the third quarter of 2019,” the carrier said in its 9M:21 trading update.

§  Revenues more than doubled, to €333.9mn.

§  Results include extraordinary one-offs of €62.7mn related to state aid (€120mn minus warrants value and write offs related to fleet restructuring).

§  Load factor for the period stood at 70,3%, higher than the third quarter of 2020, which stood at 65,7%, but significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels of 87,7% in the corresponding period in 2019. Respective figures for the 9M period stand at 64% and 69.5% respectively.

§  Cash and cash equivalents stood to €543.5mn on 30.09.2021.

§  The carrier transferred 13% higher passengers in the 9M period (4.968mn vs 4.411mn in 9M:20) out of which 2.445mn in domestic flights and 2.523mn in international flights.

§  4.6mn ASK’s available in Q3 with total passengers carried at 3.318mn.

§  Debts repayments €92mn with total outstanding debt (bank debt and corporate bond) at €344mn.

§  $43mn prepayments for new aircrafts paid in Q3:21.

  • The following table summarizes Aegean Air 9M:21 financial performance: 

AEGEAN

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

9M

9M

(%)

Q3

Q3

(%)

Sales

342,500

486,800

42.1%

155,102

333,955

115.3%

EBITDA

-47,100

157,200

433.8%

2,462

167,275

6694.3%

EBITDA Mrg

-13.8%

32.3%

+4,604 bps

1.6%

50.1%

+4,850 bps

Net Income

-187,200

28,800

115.4%

-28,422

107,194

477.2%

Net Mrg

-54.7%

5.9%

+6,057 bps

-18.3%

32.1%

+5,042 bps

KRIKRI (9M:21 results preview): 

  • The company will report Q3/9M:21 results today after market hours. We expect a continuation of the trends presented in the Q2/H1:21 set of results with strong rebound in the IC market, both domestic and internationally, continuous growth in the international yogurt segment, mainly deriving from Italian expansion, low single digit growth in the UN and soft domestic yogurt market on intense completion and price war among producers to gain market shares. In more specific:

§  Greek yogurt sales are seen down 1.5% in the 9M period halted by presumably hard operating environment due to the price war among producers for MS gains. Profitability margins also under pressure as rising input costs (energy, transportation, raw materials) take their tall I both gross profit (down 1.48% in 9M) and EBITDA (down 0.65%) at €12.1mbn and €6.8mn respectively.

§  International yogurt sales are expected to continue their upward path, mainly on Italian expansion support and UK still augmenting, albeit at a lower pace. Sales in the segment are projected to come in 11% higher to €42.1mn, with gross profit up 9.1% to €11.6mn (gross margin deterioration 50bps to 27.5%) and EBITDA rising 8.8% to €7.8mn with the respective margin settling 40 bps lower y-o-y to 18.5%.

§  IC segment, both domestic and international, are the glowing stars of the quarterly performance, rebound from last year on tourism rebound and lift of restrictions in mobility. Greek IC sales are projected to come in 18% higher to €24.8mn, gross profit up by 28.2$% to €14mn and EBITDA 19% higher to €7.1mn. International IC sales, though still limited as an absolute figure, is projected to grow 21% to €5.65mn sales, contributing €1.5mn gross profit (up 36.7%) and €0.9mn EBITDA (+30%).

§  We are concerned about the retreat (in value terms) in the domestic yogurt market and the rising input and production costs (not yet visible in operational performance but well in place), which will be more apparent in Q4:21 and partially offset by prices upgrades from beginning 2022 onwards.

§  KRI KRI trades at a projected FY:21 PE 19.3x and EV/EBITDA 12.1. We maintain or OW rating and will review our estimates following the publication of the 9M:21 results.

  • The following tables summarize our estimates for KRI KRI Q3/9M:21 financial performance: 

KRI KRI

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

9M

9M Est.

(%)

Q3

Q3 Est.

(%)

Sales

102,749

110,620

7.7%

36,826

40,390

9.7%

EBITDA

21,380

22,150

3.6%

7,576

7,505

-0.9%

EBITDA Mrg

20.8%

20.0%

-78 bps

20.6%

18.6%

-199 bps

Net Income

14,029

15,250

8.7%

4,943

5,200

5.2%

Net Mrg

13.7%

13.8%

+13 bps

13.4%

12.9%

-55 bps

KRI KRI P&L  (€mn)

Q3 2020 (A)

Q3 2021 (E)

  % chng y-o-y

9M 2020 (A)

9M 2021 (E)

  % chng y-o-y

Greece

21.85

23.61

8.08%

59.39

62.60

5.40%

% of consolidated sales

59.33%

58.46%

57.80%

56.59%

International

14.81

16.68

12.58%

42.57

47.72

12.10%

% of consolidated sales

40.23%

41.29%

41.43%

43.14%

Ice Cream Greece

8.85

10.66

20.52%

21.03

24.81

18.00%

% of consolidated sales

24.03%

26.40%

20.46%

22.43%

Ice Cream International

1.77

1.93

8.79%

4.67

5.65

21.00%

% of consolidated sales

4.81%

4.77%

4.54%

5.11%

Ice Cream Total

10.62

12.59

18.56%

25.69

30.46

18.55%

% of consolidated sales

28.84%

31.17%

25.01%

27.53%

Yogurt Greece

13.00

12.95

-0.39%

38.37

37.79

-1.50%

% of consolidated sales

35.30%

32.06%

37.34%

34.16%

Yogurt International

13.04

14.75

13.09%

37.90

42.07

11.00%

% of consolidated sales

35.42%

36.52%

36.89%

38.03%

Yogurt Total

26.04

27.70

6.36%

76.27

79.86

4.71%

% of consolidated sales

70.72%

68.58%

74.23%

72.19%

Other Sales

0.16

0.10

-38.66%

0.79

0.30

-61.88%

% of consolidated sales

0.44%

0.25%

0.77%

0.27%

Consolidated Sales

36.83

40.39

9.68%

102.75

110.62

7.66%

Ice Cream Gross Profit

4.63

6.36

37.19%

12.01

15.49

28.96%

IC Gross Profit margin

43.63%

50.48%

+686 bps

46.74%

50.85%

+410 bps

Yogurt Gross Profit

7.55

8.03

6.34%

22.88

23.66

3.40%

Yogurt Gross Profit margin

28.99%

28.99%

-0 bps

30.00%

29.63%

-38 bps

Other Gross Profit

0.22

-0.10

-145.18%

0.27

-0.30

-209.37%

Consolidated Gross Profit

12.41

14.28

15.15%

35.17

38.85

10.47%

Gross Profit margin

33.69%

35.37%

+168 bps

34.23%

35.12%

+89 bps

Total Expenses

4.83

6.78

40.17%

13.79

16.70

21.05%

% on sales

13.13%

16.78%

+365 bps

13.42%

15.09%

+167 bps

EBITDA

7.57

7.51

-0.83%

21.38

22.15

3.64%

EBITDA margin

20.56%

18.59%

-197 bps

20.80%

20.03%

-78 bps

D&A

0.97

0.95

-2.27%

2.71

2.99

10.60%

% over sales

2.63%

2.34%

-29 bps

2.63%

2.71%

+7 bps

EBIT

6.60

6.56

-0.61%

18.67

19.16

2.63%

EBIT margin

17.93%

16.25%

-168 bps

18.17%

17.32%

-85 bps

Net Financials

-0.02

-0.08

323.11%

-0.14

-0.10

-31.00%

% on sales

-0.05%

-0.21%

-16 bps

-0.14%

-0.09%

+5 bps

EBT

6.58

6.48

-1.60%

18.52

19.06

2.90%

EBT margin

17.87%

16.04%

-184 bps

18.03%

17.23%

-80 bps

Taxes

1.64

1.28

-22.06%

4.50

3.81

-15.19%

Tax Rate

24.91%

19.73%

-518 bps

24.27%

20.00%

-427 bps

NET INCOME

4.94

5.20

5.18%

14.03

15.25

8.69%

Net Margin

13.42%

12.87%

-55 bps

13.65%

13.78%

+13 bps

source: Company, BETA Securities Research estimates

  • QUEST HOLDINGS (9M:21 review):

The company reported another strong, yet expected, quarterly (Q3:21) performance with growth deceleration in all segments, stable profitability (EBITDA) margins and booking of the capital gain from the sale of Cardlink in end September (€76mn) below the EBITDA line skyrocketing both EBT and Net income. In more details:

§  Sales advanced 39.2% to €669.3mn vs our call for €659.2mn (+1.5% positive divergence)

§  EBITDA settled 34.6% higher to €57.9mn, spot on our call for €57.1mn

§  Net income skyrocketed to €109.9mn due to the booking of €75.8mn (on the consolidated level) regarding the sale of CARDLINK in late September and siting a €11.1mn extra taxation in the 9M:20 period due to reserves capitalization.

§  In the retail product segments sales grew by double digit (+57.3%), followed by a doubled EBT growth (+107.6%) on a YoY basis, since it is now apparent that the pandemic accelerated the demand for IT products and e-commerce. The improvement in profitability margins is driven by economies of scale due to the steep increase in sales and cost containment.

§  In IT services sales augmented at a double-digit pace (+19.5%) while EBT doubled (+96.2%) with significant improvement in profit margins. Demand for IT services continued to grow, partly because of digital transformation projects of the private and public sectors which accelerated. Furthermore, Uni Systems managed to operate more efficiently and contained its financial and other costs. Segment will be further enhanced by the consolidation of Intelli solutions concluded in October for €3.8mn.

§  During 9M 2021 sales in courier services improved (+12.2%), followed by an even higher increase in EBT (+28.6%). ACS profitability is also elevated on an YoY basis, due to extraordinary profits generated by the reversal of past years’ provisions. These extraordinary profits amplified EBT by about €1.5mnand EAT by about €2mn. Recurring profitability has also increased during Q3, but at a slower pace though, as ACS is burdened with increased spending to support the year-end peak demand along with the initiation of operations of the new hub. Once physical retail opened, ACS growth decelerated following the relative e-commerce trends.

§  CARDLINK is no longer consolidated (from Q4:21 onwards) and will be reported (till end 2021 as discontinued operations).

§  During 9M 2021 sales in the energy sector were slightly higher (+1.3%) while EBT also grew by (+17%) compared to last year with no additions on new solar parks.

§  Net Debt position at -€81.2mn (net cash)

§  CAPEX in 9M:21 €13.3mn mainly regarding the construction of the new courier hub. Net income also includes €2mn extraordinary capital gain from the sale of TEKA Systems stake (50%0 in H1:21.

§  The company guided for double digit growth across all major P&L lines for 2021 (sales, EBITDA and EBT), yet lower (as a growth rate) vs the ones recorded in the 9M results.

§  We maintain our OVERWEIGHT Recommendation on Quest Holdings to €20.7/share with FY:20 trading multiples (normalized ie excluding the €76mn capital gain profit from the sale of CARDLINK) at 17.5 (PE) and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x.

§  In the conference call we will wait developments on new solar parks additions and exploitation of the c.€40mn (€85mn minus €46mn to be distributed as interim €1.25/share dividend) remaining funds procedures to support future growth.

§  Interim FY:21 gross dividend e1.25/share (net €1.1875/share) ex-dividend date February 1,2022. Record date February 2 2022. Dividend payment February 7, 2022.

  • The following tables summarize Quest Holdings Q3/9M:21 financial performance vs our estimates:

Quest Group P&L  (€mn)

9M 2020 (A)

9M 2021 (A)

  % chng y-o-y

9M 2021 Est

Actual from Est

Retail Products

266.49

419.29

57.34%

410.96

-1.99%

% of consolidated sales

55.41%

62.65%

62.32%

IT Services (Unisystems)

93.48

111.70

19.50%

109.83

-1.68%

% of consolidated sales

19.44%

16.69%

16.66%

Courrier/Postal Services

87.90

98.59

12.17%

100.27

1.70%

% of consolidated sales

18.28%

14.73%

15.21%

Electronic Transactions

25.34

31.95

26.08%

30.39

-4.89%

% of consolidated sales

5.27%

4.77%

4.61%

Solar Energy

7.39

7.49

1.27%

7.69

2.76%

% of consolidated sales

1.54%

1.12%

1.17%

Other

0.37

0.26

-28.26%

0.28

6.06%

% of consolidated sales

0.08%

0.04%

0.04%

Total Consolidated Sales

480.96

669.28

39.16%

659.42

-1.47%

Retail Products EBITDA

9.42

15.71

66.81%

15.62

-0.58%

% of consolidated EBITDA

21.89%

27.14%

27.34%

EBITDA margin

3.53%

3.75%

+21 bps

3.80%

+5 bps

IT Services EBITDA

5.31

8.77

65.18%

8.79

0.21%

% of consolidated EBITDA

12.34%

15.15%

15.38%

EBITDA margin

5.68%

7.85%

+217 bps

8.00%

+15 bps

Courrier ACS EBITDA

12.99

15.64

20.37%

15.54

-0.64%

% of consolidated EBITDA

30.21%

27.02%

27.21%

EBITDA margin

14.78%

15.86%

+108 bps

15.50%

-36 bps

CARDLINK EBITDA

8.79

11.53

31.27%

10.79

-6.46%

% of consolidated EBITDA

20.42%

19.92%

18.89%

EBITDA margin

34.67%

36.10%

+143 bps

35.50%

-60 bps

Solar Energy EBITDA

5.80

6.24

7.55%

6.31

1.12%

% of consolidated EBITDA

13.48%

10.77%

11.04%

EBITDA margin

61.59%

39.71%

-2,188 bps

40.39%

+68 bps

Other EBITDA

0.72

0.00

-100.28%

0.08

-4100.00%

% of consolidated EBITDA

1.66%

0.00%

0.14%

Total EBITDA

43.02

57.88

34.56%

57.12

-1.32%

EBITDA margin

8.94%

8.65%

-30 bps

8.66%

+1 bps

 

******

ΠΑΡΑΤΗΡΗΣΗ:

Το παρόν δεν αποτελεί σύσταση επενδυτικής στρατηγικής αναφορικά με χρηματοπιστωτικά μέσα ή εκδότες χρηματοπιστωτικών μέσων και δεν περιέχει την οποιαδήποτε γνώμη σχετικά με την παρούσα ή μελλοντική αξία χρηματοπιστωτικών μέσων. Οι πληροφορίες και οι απόψεις στο συγκεκριμένο έγγραφο είναι για ενημέρωση του αναγνώστη και μόνο.

  • Στο παρόν έγγραφο υπάρχουν πληροφορίες και εκτιμήσεις οι οποίες ενδεχομένως να αναθεωρηθούν σημαντικά μετά την κυκλοφορία του συγκεκριμένου εγγράφου είτε λόγω αναθεώρησης των οικονομικών μεγεθών από τις αρμόδιες αρχές, είτε επειδή οι εκτιμήσεις αναθεωρούνται με βάση νέες εξελίξεις και τάσεις στις οικονομίες και τις αγορές.

Στο παρόν έγγραφο ενδεχομένως να γίνεται αναφορά σε συγκεκριμένα χρηματοοικονομικά στοιχεία τα οποία μπορεί να μην είναι συμβατά με τον επενδυτικό ορίζοντα+ το προφίλ συγκεκριμένων επενδυτών. Η επένδυση σε ορισμένα χρηματοοικονομικά στοιχεία μπορεί να ενέχει σημαντικούς κινδύνους και κόστος ευκαιρίας.

  • Οι αναγνώστες του συγκεκριμένου εγγράφου είναι αποκλειστικά υπεύθυνοι στο να επιβεβαιώνουν την εγκυρότητα των παρεχομένων πληροφοριών καθώς επίσης και να ενημερώνονται για τυχόν αναθεωρήσεις οικονομικών μεγεθών και εκτιμήσεων που λαμβάνουν χώρα.