24/11- Χ.Α: Πολλά, μικρά + μεγάλα ενδιαφέροντα (Νο.3)

ΔΕΗ


AS.CO: Ελκυστικά αποτιμημένη εταιρεία, απόλυτα ποιοτική κα αξιόπιστη αλλά χωρίς καμμία βοήθεια από την διοίκηση… Και βασικά, από τον μεγαλομέτοχο.



ΜΗΝΥΜΑ (Σ.Σπ.): ΓΕΛΑΝΕ ΚΑΙ ΟΙ ΠΕΤΡΕΣ με αυτά που διαβάζουν για την ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ και τις (επ)εξηγήσεις που δόθηκαν. Το χειρότερο είναι, πως κάνουν ότι δεν καταλαβαίνουν. Εκτός κι αν είναι άσχετοι, κάτι που δεν αποκλείεται.

  • ΣΧΟΛΙΟ μ/μ: Ας κάτσουν κάτω να σκεφτούν για να επιλύσουν τουλάχιστον τα εύκολα θέματα γιατί ο Θεσμός ολοένα και απαξιώνεται πιο πολύ, ολοέναι και εκφυλίζεται. Κοντεύει να κτυπήσει Limit Down.

Εδώ, αυτοί οι άνθρωποι δεν μπορούν να πάρουν μία… αποφασούλα και να καταργήσουν την δυνατότητα του κάποιος να μας δουλεύει κατάμουτρα και να κατεβάζει ή να ανεβάζει με ελάχιστα ευρώ την τιμή μίας μετοχής μέχρι το +30% ή στο -30%(!!).


ΗΛΙΑΣ ΖΑΧΑΡΑΚΗΣ: Σημαντικές διαφορές πλέον στα 2 γραφήματα μιας και ο τραπεζικός έχει αλλάξει σημαντικά την εικόνα.

Το 2122 του ftse25 είναι ένα επίπεδο που θα μπορούσε να δώσει μία αντίδραση στην αγορά. Το 2160 έχει γίνει σημαντική κοντινή αντίσταση και επιθετική τάση στον ftse25.

Το 10ετές spread σίγουρα προβληματίζει μιας και έχει βρεθεί στο 1,31.

Ο τραπεζικός κλάδος θυμίζουμε ότι παραμένει Long με το στοπ να είναι στο 583 σε κλείσιμο ημέρας με το ενδοσυνεδριακό να βρίσκεται οριακά παρακάτω.

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QUEST HOLDINGS – (Q3/9M:21 results review)- Beta Securities: 

  • Quest Group will report Q3/9M:21 results today after market close. We expect, for yet another quarter, strong top line growth albeit at a deceleration rate with EBITDA margins in the various segments at the Q2:21 level. On the bottom line, we estimate the company will book a €85mn capital gain profit from the sale of CARDLINK in end September 2021, which is tax deductible and will boost bottom line (net profit) profitability. In more specific:

§  9M:21 sales are seen up 37.1% y-o-y to €659.15mn assisted by strong continuing performance across all segments. Retails products are projected to augment by 54.22% to €410.96mn on strong demand for apple products (iSquare, iStorm), enhanced Infoquest Technologies performance (with the addition of the retail clima business still pending but wholesale clime performing strongly) and elevated take up on Quest On Line (you site on line sales).

  • IT services will grow by 17.5% in 9M:21 (+8.1% in Q3:21) on several projects execution both in the domestic public (digitalization) and private sectors and continuous business flow from EU funds. Courrier services is expected to come in 14.1% higher to €100.3mn (Q3 +10%) while solar energy is projected to grow 4.1% to €7.7mn pending new acquisitions (most likely in Q1:22).

Finally, Electronic transaction, reported as discontinued operations (the sale of which was concluded on September 30 thus will de deconsolidated in Q4:21) is expected to contribute €30.4mn in consolidated sales, up c.20% on a yearly basis, favored by rising e-sales transaction, plastic money and cards usage and market rationalization.

§  Main characteristic for the quarter (Q3) will be the top line growth +19.74% to €211.97mn but at a decelerated mode.

§  On the profitability front, we project EBITDA margin to drop by 28bps to 8.66% (compared to 8.94% in 9M:20). IT services (Unisystems, +232 bps EBITDA margin accretion), ACS (courier, +72bps or 15.5%), Energy (+354bps impacted by one off taxation in 2020) and Retail products practically flattish EBITDA margin (+27bps to 3.8%).

§  Below the EBITDA line we expect Quest Holding to book the net capital gain recorded from the sale of CARDLINK in late September amounting to €85mn (on the mother company level) and €76mn in the consolidated level, thus skyrocketing 9M:21 profitability (Net income) to €107.8mn vs a mere €7.3mn in 9M:20 when the extra taxation of €11.5mn for reserves capitalization was recorded.

§  We maintain our OVERWEIGHT Recommendation on Quest Holdings to €20.7/share with FY:20 trading multiples (normalized ie excluding the €76mn capital gain profit from the sale of CARDLINK) at 17.5 (PE) and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x.

§  In the conference call we will await for a ratification of the timeline for the €1.25/share interim dividend to shareholders (€46mn out of the €76mn capital gain recorded), developments on new solar parks additions and exploitation of the c.€40mn remaining funds procedures to support future growth.

  • The following table summarise our estimates: 

Quest Group P&L  (€mn)

Q3 2020 (A)

Q3 2021  Est

  % chng y-o-y

9M 2020 (A)

9M 2021 Est

  % chng y-o-y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Products

103.94

132.70

27.67%

266.49

410.96

54.22%

% of consolidated sales

58.71%

62.60%

 

55.41%

62.32%

 

IT Services (Unisystems)

30.73

33.21

8.06%

93.48

109.83

17.50%

% of consolidated sales

17.36%

15.67%

 

19.44%

16.66%

 

Courrier/Postal Services

30.46

33.53

10.09%

87.90

100.27

14.07%

% of consolidated sales

17.20%

15.82%

 

18.28%

15.21%

 

Electronic Transactions

8.99

9.49

5.47%

25.34

30.39

19.92%

% of consolidated sales

5.08%

4.47%

 

5.27%

4.61%

 

Solar Energy

2.80

2.98

6.36%

7.39

7.69

4.06%

% of consolidated sales

1.58%

1.41%

 

1.54%

1.17%

 

Other

0.11

0.07

-38.94%

0.37

0.28

-23.91%

% of consolidated sales

0.06%

0.03%

 

0.08%

0.04%

 

Total Consolidated Sales

177.03

211.97

19.74%

480.96

659.42

37.10%

 

 

Retail Products EBITDA

3.80

4.92

29.53%

9.42

15.62

65.85%

% of consolidated EBITDA

23.91%

27.51%

 

21.89%

27.34%

 

EBITDA margin

3.65%

3.70%

+5 bps 

3.53%

3.80%

+27 bps  

IT Services EBITDA

2.13

2.54

18.96%

5.31

8.79

65.53%

% of consolidated EBITDA

13.44%

14.21%

 

12.34%

15.38%

 

EBITDA margin

6.94%

7.64%

+70 bps 

5.68%

8.00%

+232 bps 

Courrier EBITDA

4.96

4.90

-1.31%

12.99

15.54

19.60%

% of consolidated EBITDA

31.25%

27.40%

 

30.21%

27.21%

 

EBITDA margin

16.29%

14.60%

-169 bps 

14.78%

15.50%

+72 bps 

Electronic Transactions EBITDA

3.04

3.08

1.33%

8.79

10.79

22.78%

% of consolidated EBITDA

19.15%

17.23%

 

20.42%

18.89%

 

EBITDA margin

33.79%

32.47%

-133 bps 

34.67%

35.50%

+83 bps 

Solar Energy EBITDA

1.99

2.42

21.65%

5.80

6.31

8.76%

% of consolidated EBITDA

12.51%

13.52%

 

13.48%

11.04%

 

EBITDA margin

70.83%

81.01%

+1,018 bps 

78.46%

82.00%

+354 bps 

Other EBITDA

-0.04

0.02

-152.38%

0.72

0.08

-1 bps 

% of consolidated EBITDA

-0.26%

0.12%

 

1.66%

0.14%

 

Total EBITDA

15.87

17.87

12.57%

43.02

57.12

32.78%

EBITDA margin

8.97%

8.43%

-54 bps 

8.94%

8.66%

-28 bps 

D&A

4.42

5.92

33.79%

13.42

11.54

-13.99%

% over sales

2.50%

2.79%

+29 bps

2.79%

1.75%

-104 bps

EBIT

11.45

11.95

4.37%

29.60

45.57

53.99%

EBIT margin

6.47%

5.64%

-83 bps

6.15%

6.91%

+76 bps

Net Financials

-1.58

-1.50

-5.12%

-4.07

-4.74

16.43%

% on sales

-0.89%

-0.71%

+19 bps

-0.85%

-0.72%

+13 bps

EBT

9.87

10.45

5.89%

25.52

40.83

59.98%

EBT margin

5.57%

4.93%

-64 bps

5.31%

6.19%

+89 bps

Taxes

13.94

-73.44

-626.85%

18.23

-66.96

-467.36%

Tax Rate

141.26%

-702.89%

-84,415 bps

71.41%

-163.97%

-23,538 bps

NET INCOME

-4.07

83.89

-2160.22%

7.30

107.79

1377.16%

NET INCOME Margin

-2.30%

39.58%

+4,188 bps

1.52%

16.35%

+1,483 bps

source: Company, BETA Securities Research estimates

CC Details: November 25, 3.30 pm Local GR time

§  GR: + 30 213 009 6000

§  UK: + 44 203 059 5872

§  USA: +1 516 447 5632


 

  • Motor Oil (Q3/9M:21 results review)- Beta Securities: 

Motor oil posted a strong set of results courtesy of higher utilization rate and satisfactory performance in marketing and other activities. Volumes mark the highest figure in the history of the Group surpassing the 4MT mark in just one quarter. Thus, refining was strong coming 57% higher vs. Q3:20 and 10.7% above our estimate reaching at €134m.

  • Performance was also backed by high product cracks for gasoline (USD12.4/bbl) and ULSD (USD 7.1/bbl) and crude differentials’ widening (USD 4.2/bbl for Basrah Medium vs Brent in Q3:21).  Increased domestic sales (664k  MT in Q3’21 vs 512k  MT in Q3’20) supported marketing segment. Shipping and aviation markets were significantly recovered, improving by 57% y-o-y, while exports remained strong, up by 17% y-o-y.

MOH posted adj. EBITDA of €134m (+33% y-o-y), while its adj. net profits reached €67m vs. €44m a year ago. Accounting for €23m gains from inventory in Q3:21 (vs. zero inventory impact a year ago), MOH’s reported EBITDA and Net Profit shaped at €157m and €85m respectively as reported profitability in Q3:21 supported by €23m inventory gains.

Net debt (incl. leases) at €1,455m up from end 2020 (€920m) but down in H1:21 (€1,505m) on the back of increased CapEx (€181m in the 9M). MOH guides for total CapEx in the parent company of €240m (previous FY:21 guidance of €260m).

On a 9M basis, volume sales reached 10.478kMt (+15.2% y-o-y). With regards to margins, MOH’s realized reported refining margin was improved to US$60.4/bbl vs US$21.2/bbl in 9M:20 with the respective adjusted margin flattish y-o-y at US$49.7/bbl. EBITDA in 9M:21 came at in €407m; adjusting for €101m of inventory gains (vs €260m losses in 9M:20), group adjusted EBITDA stood at €306m (up 3% y-o-y). Adjusted for inventory gains 9M:21 net profit reached €126m, up by 39% y-o-y.

In other news on November 22, the company bought 10K shares at €14.069/share for a total consideration of €140.69K. Total treasury at 404,407 shares or 0.37% of share capital with an avg price of €12.203/share

In the call we would look for comments on RES deployment, mid-term refining outlook and some color on investments in the gas business.

  • The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

Motor oil

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021 (Est.)

Vs

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021 (Est.)

Vs

EUR mn.

9M

9M

(%)

9M

Estimate

Q3

Q3

(%)

Q3

Estimate

Volumes (MTx1000)

9.100

10.477

15,1%

9.898

5,8%

3.321

4.029

21,3%

3.450

16,8%

Sales

4.472

7.143

59,7%

6.586

8,5%

1.639

2.987

82,2%

2.430

22,9%

EBITDA

37

408

1002,7%

394

3,6%

100

157

57,0%

143,0

9,8%

Adjusted EBITDA

297

307

3,4%

294

4,4%

100

134

34,0%

121,0

10,7%

of Which Refining

187

202

8,0%

184,0

9,8%

62

96

54,8%

78,0

23,1%

of which Marketing & other

106

105

-0,9%

110,0

-4,5%

38

38

0,0%

43,0

-11,6%

Net Income

-106

206

294,3%

198

4,0%

44

85

93,2%

77,0

10,3%

Adjusted Net Income

91

131

44,3%

121

8,3%

44

71

62,0%

61

16,5%

  • Conference call details (24/11 17:30 GR-Time)

§  Gr: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 946 0800

§  UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA: +1 516 447 5632

§  Other +44 (0) 203 059 5872


  • OPAP (Q3/9M:21 results review)- Beta Securities:

OPAP reported a robust third quarter earnings performance, with profits rising 83% y-o-y to €96.1m, on increased online contribution and decreased corporate tax rate. Third quarter recurring EBITDA came in at €175.0m, up 66%. In more details:

§  OPAP’s revenues (GGR) in 9M:21 increased by 15.7% y-o-y reaching €1,040.3m even though our retail estate remained operational fewer days in 2021 vs. 2020. Q3:21 stood higher by 20.3% y-o-y to €470.2m, on the back of online strong contribution, that represented 21% of total GGR.

§  Online performance more than counterbalanced the slightly decreased retail performance, following covid-19 infections’ increase.

§  Gross Profit from gaming operations in 9M:21 stood at €450.6m higher by 33.2% y-oy, strengthened compared to top line run rate, on the back of increased online penetration. Q3:21 Gross Profit increased by 37.2% y-o-y reaching €201.8m vs €147.1m in Q3 2020. Gross profit has been once again burdened by Hellenic Lotteries’ disproportional GGR contribution so as to meet the annual contractual threshold of €50m.

§  Total betting revenues reached €355.3m in 9M:21 versus €228.4m in 9M:20 higher by 55.6% y-o-y aided by Stoiximan full consolidation. Betting GGR in Q3:21 increased by 39.1% yo-y standing at €141.4m on the back of strong online contribution

§  VLTs revenues in 9M:21 stood lower by 28.5% reaching €120.6m vs. €168.5m in 9M:20 as a result of less operating days in 2021. VLTs revenues in Q3:21 stood higher by 5.4% reaching €84.4m (Q3 2020 at €80.1m) demonstrating a strong post re-opening performance despite imposed conditional access in mid-September to contain covid-19 infections.

§  Revenues from Instant & Passives stood at €61.2m in 9M:21 compared to €60.7m in 9M:20, marginally higher by 0.8% y-o-y. Q3:21 GGR stood at €24.1m vs €27.1m in Q3 2020, down by 11.2% materially affected by the in-place safety protocols to contain the covid-19 spread.

§  Revenues from Online Casino stood at €137.9m in 9M:21 and €42.0m in Q3:21, also reflecting Stoiximan contribution.

§  Gaming revenue related expense in 9M:21 dropped by 3.8% y-o-y reaching €246.8m versus €256.7m in 9M:20 following increased online arising mainly from Stoiximan. Q3:21 gaming revenue related expense reached €121.9m vs. €112.6m in Q3 2020 on the back of the concession extension GGR contribution regime and Stoiximan full consolidation.

§  Marketing expense in 9M:21 increased by 76.6% at €61.8m vs €35.0m in 9M:20. 9M’21 l-f-l marketing expenses increased by 12.6% y-o-y on the back of extensive marketing campaigns accompanying retail reopening and the EuroCup. Q3’21 marketing expenses increased by 50.5% while on a l-f-l basis dropped by 11.3%.

§   Other operating expense in 9M:21 increased by 68.3% y-o-y standing at €147.8m versus €87.8m in 9M:20. On a l-f-l level (excl. one-off items in both years and Stoiximan full consolidation in 9M’21) other Opex decreased by 6.2% affirming our focus on cost optimization. Q3:21 other operating expenses reached €55.8m versus €26.3m in Q3 2020, up by 112.4%, while on a l-f-l basis, other opex marginally increased by 1.3%

  • §  EBITDA in 9M:21 stood at €379.9m vs. €207.6m in 9M:20 higher by 83.0% or 70.3% l-f-l on the back of increased profitability along with €158.7m income related to the extension of the concession agreement.

Q3:21 EBITDA reached at €175.0m vs. €105.0m in Q3 2020 also aided by Stoiximan full consolidation Revenues from lottery reached €365.3m in 9M:21 vs. €436.6m in 9M:20, lower by 16.3% y-o-y as a result of stores’ closure for an almost double number of days. Lottery GGR in Q3:21 remained almost flat at €178.4m (Q3 2020 at €179.1m) demonstrating a solid performance. Tzoker online contribution continues to stand at double digit levels, reaching 13% in Q3:21.

§  Net profit in 9M:21 stood at €178.2m vs. €73.2m in 9M:20 up by 143.4% or up by 97.3% on a l-f-l basis excluding one-off items, as a result of increased operating profitability. Q3:21 net profits reached €96.1m vs. €52.8m in Q3 2020, also aided by the decreased nominal corporate tax rate now standing at 22%.

§  Cash flows from operating activities in 9M:21 stood at inflows of €273.1m vs. inflows of €158.9m in 9M:20 as a result of healthy profitability recovery partially offset by increased receivables related to GGR contribution prepayment. Net Debt (excl. leases) standing at €378.4m.

OPAP provides the best dividend play in AthEx with at least 7% yield p.a. in the next 9 years. We are buyers on the stock and we look for weaknesses for optimal entry levels.

  • The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

OPAP

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021

Y-o-Y

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

9M

9M

(%)

9M Est.

(%)

Q3

Q3

(%)

Q3 Est.

(%)

Sports Betting

228,3

355,3

55,6%

352,0

1,0%

101,6

141,4

39,1%

138,0

2,4%

Numerical Games

436,6

365,3

-16,3%

365,9

-0,2%

179,1

178,4

-0,4%

179,0

-0,3%

Lotteries

60,7

61,2

0,8%

61,1

0,2%

27,1

24,1

-11,2%

24,0

0,4%

VLTs

168,5

120,6

-28,5%

118,13

2,0%

80,1

84,4

5,4%

82,00

3,0%

Online Casino

4,7

137,9

2844,4%

135,95

1,4%

3,0

42,0

1297,0%

40,00

4,9%

GGR

             898,9

          1.040,3

15,7% 

     1.033,1

0,7% 

           390,9

           470,2

20,3% 

        463,0

1,6% 

EBITDA

207,5

379,8

83,0%

374,8

1,3%

105,0

175,0

66,7%

170,0

2,9%

EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR)

23,1%

36,5%

+1.342 bps

36,3%

+23 bps

26,9%

37,2%

+1.036 bps

36,7%

+50 bps

Net Income

73,2

178,2

143,4%

175,6

1,5%

52,8

96,1

82,0%

93,5

2,8%

Net Mrg (vs GGR)

8,1%

17,1%

+899 bps

17,0%

+13 bps

13,5%

20,4%

+693 bps

20,2%

+24 bps

  • Conference call details (24/11 16:00 GR-Time)

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  GΡ           +30 211 180 2000

§  US           +1 516 447 5632

§  Other       +44 (0) 203 0595 872


 



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ΠΑΡΑΤΗΡΗΣΗ:

Το παρόν δεν αποτελεί σύσταση επενδυτικής στρατηγικής αναφορικά με χρηματοπιστωτικά μέσα ή εκδότες χρηματοπιστωτικών μέσων και δεν περιέχει την οποιαδήποτε γνώμη σχετικά με την παρούσα ή μελλοντική αξία χρηματοπιστωτικών μέσων. Οι πληροφορίες και οι απόψεις στο συγκεκριμένο έγγραφο είναι για ενημέρωση του αναγνώστη και μόνο.

  • Στο παρόν έγγραφο υπάρχουν πληροφορίες και εκτιμήσεις οι οποίες ενδεχομένως να αναθεωρηθούν σημαντικά μετά την κυκλοφορία του συγκεκριμένου εγγράφου είτε λόγω αναθεώρησης των οικονομικών μεγεθών από τις αρμόδιες αρχές, είτε επειδή οι εκτιμήσεις αναθεωρούνται με βάση νέες εξελίξεις και τάσεις στις οικονομίες και τις αγορές.

Στο παρόν έγγραφο ενδεχομένως να γίνεται αναφορά σε συγκεκριμένα χρηματοοικονομικά στοιχεία τα οποία μπορεί να μην είναι συμβατά με τον επενδυτικό ορίζοντα+ το προφίλ συγκεκριμένων επενδυτών. Η επένδυση σε ορισμένα χρηματοοικονομικά στοιχεία μπορεί να ενέχει σημαντικούς κινδύνους και κόστος ευκαιρίας.

  • Οι αναγνώστες του συγκεκριμένου εγγράφου είναι αποκλειστικά υπεύθυνοι στο να επιβεβαιώνουν την εγκυρότητα των παρεχομένων πληροφοριών καθώς επίσης και να ενημερώνονται για τυχόν αναθεωρήσεις οικονομικών μεγεθών και εκτιμήσεων που λαμβάνουν χώρα.