23 NOE 2021- OPAP (Q3/9M:21 results preview)

  • OPAP (Q3/9M:21 results preview)

OPAP is set to announce Q3/9M results today after the end of the session while a conference call is scheduled tomorrow to discuss results. Q3:21 marks the era of full consolidation of Stoiximan while the Q3:21 92-day period was first fully operational quarter since the burst of Covid-19 pandemic. Thus we expect a strong quarter across the board. In more details:

  • §  Sports betting is expected to post growth by 35.8% in the quarter while Kino is seen flat y-o-y at €179m. VLTs are also expected flattish, up 2.4% at €82m while passives and scratch tickets will lose ground by 11.4%. On the flip side Online Casino is gaining steam and reach €40m in GGR revenues vs. 3m a year ago. All in GGR is expected to reach at €463m up 18.4% y-o-y.

§  Q3:21 EBITDA is seen up 61.9% y-o-y at €170m assisted also by the €55.5m GGR tax prepayment. Finally, Q3:21 net profit is seen at €93.5m up 77.1% y-o-y.

  • §  On a 9M basis OPAP is expected to deliver 1,033.1bn of GGR (+14.9% y-o-y), EBITDA of €374.8 (+80.6% y-o-y) and net earnings of €175.6m (+139.9% y-o-y).

§  Note that OPAP has recently distributed €0.10 interim dividend.

  • §  OPAP provides the best dividend play in AthEx with at least 7% yield p.a. in the next 9 years. We are buyers on the stock and we look for weaknesses for optimal entry levels.

The following table summarise our estimates:

OPAP

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

9M

9M Est.

(%)

Q3

Q3 Est.

(%)

Sports Betting

228.3

352.0

54.1%

101.6

138.0

35.8%

Numerical Games

436.6

365.9

-16.2%

179.1

179.0

-0.1%

Lotteries

60.7

61.1

0.7%

27.1

24.0

-11.4%

VLTs

168.5

118.1

-29.9%

80.1

82.0

2.4%

Online Casino

4.7

136.0

2804.9%

3.0

40.0

1233.3%

GGR

              898.8

           1,033.1

14.9% 

            390.9

            463.0

18.4% 

EBITDA

207.5

374.8

80.6%

105.0

170.0

61.9%

EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR)

23.1%

36.3%

+1,319 bps

26.9%

36.7%

+986 bps

Net Income

73.2

175.6

139.9%

52.8

93.5

77.1%

Net Mrg (vs GGR)

8.1%

17.0%

+885 bps

13.5%

20.2%

+669 bps

  • Conference call details (24/11 16:00 GR-Time)

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Manos Chatzidakis

mchatzidakis@beta.gr