23 NOE 2021- Motor Oil (Q3/9M:21 results preview)

Motor Oil (Q3/9M:21 results preview)

  • Motor oil will announce Q3/9M:21 results after market hours followed by a conference call tomorrow.

We expect a satisfactory set on improving trends across the board. Results are expected to be driven by oil demand recovery in all key markets, as well as improved benchmark refining margins.

  • The lifting of mobility and travel restrictions as well as the restart of the economy and tourism during the third quarter, resulted in ground fuels demand increasing by 8% vs LY, reaching 2019 levels. Total domestic fuels market demand amounted to 1.6m MT, -1% compared to 3Q19.

The Aviation and Bunkering market also recorded a significant recovery compared to last year, with the consumption of shipping fuels up by 28% to 712k MT and aviation fuel more than doubling to 476k MT, but falling short of 2019 by 20%. More specifically:

  • Volumes are expected to run above nominal capacity capturing the improvement of the refining environment and strong demand in Q3:21. Refining EBITDA is seen up at €78m up 25.8% y-o-y Marketing and other (RES, energy trading) had also a good quarter posting adjusted EBITDA of €43m.

Excluding inventory one-off gains, we expect adjusted” EBITDA of € 121m (+21% y-o-y) and adjusted net income of € 61m vs. adj. net income of € 44m in Q3:20. On a 9M21 basis, we expect adj. EBITDA of €298m, up 1 % y-o-y, and adj. net income of € 121m, up 33.2% y-o-y.

  • Accounting for inventory gain of € 22m vs zero impact in Q3:20, we forecast EBITDA of € 143m (+43% y-o-y) and reported net income of € 77m (+75.1% y-o-y). Accordingly, we expect reported 9M:21 EBITDA at €394m vs. €37m a year ago and net profits of €198m vs. losses of €106m

Despite the good results refining environment remains fragile. Q4:21 had a good start while favorable fx so far is expected to support profitability along with good marketing volumes. Pandemic concerns are incorporated to share price while transformation into a greener energy company has still some significant distance to cover. In the call we would look for comments on RES deployment, mid-term refining outlook and some color on investments in the gas business.

  • In other news on November 19, the company bought 5K shares at €14.078/share for a total consideration of €70.39K. Total treasury at 394,407 shares or 0.36% of share capital with an avg price of €12.156/share.

The following table summarise our estimates:

Motor oil

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

9M

9M Est.

(%)

Q3

Q3 Est.

(%)

Volumes (MTx1000)

9,100

9,898

8.8%

3,321

3,450

3.9%

Sales

4,472

6,586

47.3%

1,639

2,430

48.3%

EBITDA

37

394

964.9%

100

143

43.0%

Adjusted EBITDA

297

294

-1.0%

100

121

21.0%

of Which Refining

187

184

-1.6%

62

78

25.8%

of which Marketing & other

106

110

3.8%

38

43

13.2%

Net Income

-106

198

286.8%

44

77

75.1%

Adjusted Net Income

91

121

33.2%

44

61

39.1%

Conference call details (24/11 17:30 GR-Time)

§  Gr: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 946 0800

§  UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA: +1 516 447 5632

§  Other +44 (0) 203 059 5872

Manos Chatzidakis

mchatzidakis@beta.gr