22/1/2020 @12:30 – Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μ/μ

ΑΝΟΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ 54 – 46 και ΤΖΙΡΟΣ 27,8 εκατ. ευρώ (μόλις 5 εκατ. στις 4 συστημικές μετοχές).

  • SPREADS – ΒΑΛΑΜΕ ΚΑΤΩ ΤΗΝ ΙΤΑΛΙΑ
ΧΩΡΑ ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ % Spread vs BUND
ΕΛΛΑΔΑ 1,39 +1,63
ΠΟΡΤΟΓΑΛΙΑ 0,43 +0,67
ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ 0,43 +0,68
ΙΤΑΛΙΑ 1,42 +1,66
  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟΣ (ΓΙΑ ΤΑ ΠΑΝΗΓΥΡΙΑ ΟΙ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΕΣ)
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΝΤΟΠΛΕΡ 0,7500 18,11 % 0,1150 4.300
ΛΑΝΑΚ 1,2600 17,76 % 0,1900 15
ΛΙΒΑΝ 0,0800 14,29 % 0,0100 1.000
ΛΟΓΟΣ 0,7100 9,23 % 0,0600 2.955
ΠΑΙΡ 0,4600 6,98 % 0,0300 9.886
ΛΕΒΚ 0,1800 5,88 % 0,0100 450
ΜΕΡΚΟ 59,4000 5,69 % 3,2000 11
ΜΑΘΙΟ 0,6700 5,51 % 0,0350 150
ΑΒΕ 0,2940 5,00 % 0,0140 1.420
ΚΜΟΛ 2,1000 5,00 % 0,1000 10
ΓΕΒΚΑ 0,9150 3,98 % 0,0350 51.801
ΛΑΒΙ 0,2660 3,91 % 0,0100 2.500

ΤΑΜΠΛΟ

ΣΗΜΕΡΑ – ΑΥΡΙΟ, ΟΣΟΝΟΥΠΩ: Οι κάτοχοι του να παραμένουν στις θέσεις τους, το δάγκωμα του θα είναι για το καλό τους.

  • ΜΑ ΒΡΕ ΠΑΙΔΙΑ δεν μπορεί να έχει η ΕΝΤΕΡΣΟΦΤ 30 εκατ. κ/φση, η ΕΠΣΙΛ 25 εκατ., κι αυτός… 31. ΔΕΝ ΓΙΝΕΤΑΙ ΑΥΤΟ, ΔΕΝ ΓΙΝΕΤΑΙ. Και να μην γράψουμε για τα 83 εκατ. της πολυδιαφημισμένης εξολοθρεύτριας περιουσιών και πολλών, πάρα πολλών εκατοντάδων εκατομμυρίων που εξανεμίστηκαν, τα 69 εκατ. ευρώ της ΦΟΡΘ και τόσων άλλων περιπτώσεων.

ΓΕΒΚΑ -απάντηση: Ναι μεν υποαποδίδει συγκριτικά με την υπόλοιπη αγορά, αλλά η μετοχή της συμπεριφέρθηκε άψοφα, αν μη τι άλλο, στην εποχή της μεγάλης κρίσης. Και αυτό από μόνο του είναι ένα πολύ μεγάλο ΣΥΝ. Πολύ νοικοκυρεμένη εταιρεία, θα διεκδικήσει τώρα το δικό της το δικό της μερίδιο σε όλα τα μέτωπα. Επιχειρηματικά και χρηματιστηριακά.

ΚΟΡΔΕΛΛΟΥ – απάντηση: Πιέσεις από τις τράπεζες δεν υφίσταναι πλέον και δεν πιστεύουμε ότι η κα Ελένη Κορδέλλου θα συνεχίσει να ξεπουλάει την περιουσία της. Γιατί περί ξεπουλήματος επρόκειτο, αναγκαστικού βέβαια.

ΦΟΥΝΤΛ: Δεν έχουμε άποψη, εν τω μεταξύ έχουμε μεγάλα προβλήματα με το helex.gr που εδώ και αρκετές ημέρες υπολειτουργεί – μάλλον δεν λειτουργεί καθόλου – Το helex.gr (εξαιρετικό εργαλείο για μας) αντιμετωπίζει τεχνικό πρόβλημα που σύντομα θα αποκατασταθεί και θα μπορέσουμε να σας απαντήσουμε.

  • Πάντως στα τρέχοντα επίπεδα, δεν θα μπορούσαμε να χαρακτηρίσουμε την μετοχή της ως Ευκαιρία.

ΣΧΟΛΙΟ: Το τι θα κάνει η κάθε μετοχή στο ταμπλό ουδείς μπορεί να το γνωρίζει πλην των insiders, που ξέρουν πάντα κάτι παραπάνω από εμας τους υπόλοιπους, αφήστε που ξέρουν και τα χρηματοοικονομικά των εταιρειών τους τα οποία εμείς μαθαίνουμε μετά από πολλούς μήνες.

Ο μ/μ βαδίζει πάντα βάσει των θεμελιωδών τους, εκτός κι αν μυριστεί κάτι με αυξημένες τις πιθανότητες να μετουσιωθεί σε ποράξη. ΟΥΔΕΙΣ ΟΜΩΣ ΜΑΓΟΣ και ΟΥΔΕΙΣ… ΑΣΦΑΛΤΟΣ.


  •  In the Spotlight

    by BETA SECURITIES

Greece: Parliament to hold its first vote on the new president of the Republic. 

Avax/Ellaktor: Olympia Odos company, which already manages the Corinth-Patras tollway across the breadth of the northern Peloponnese, has been awarded a contract for construction of the Patras-Pyrgos highway, along the northwest Peloponnese. Note that in Olympia odos consortium Avax and Aktor concessions own 19.1% and 17% respevtively. 

Jumbo: Extraordinary GM decided upon the distribution of a gross FY;19 interim dividend €0.22/share from untaxed reserves of FY 2015. Net dividend amounts to €0.209/share (5% tax rate). The company trades ex-dividend right on Friday January 24th while payment will be concluded on January 30th. Total dividend for the fiscal year ending December 2019 amounts to €0.2820/share (gross) and corresponds to 50% of the annual dividend for the fiscal year ended on 30.6.2019, increased by 20%, exactly as the management had communicated during the last General Meeting. The remaining gross amount of 0,062 EUR per share must be approved by the Ordinary General Meeting, which will be held on the first half of 2020.

The general meeting also introduced the period of the fiscal years that will start on January 1st and will be completed on December 31st every year. During the Extraordinary General Meeting, the Group’s management informed the shareholders of the sales after the critical -commercially- holiday season of Christmas and New Year celebration. Group’s sales reached approximately €512.5mn in total for the six-month fiscal year from July 1st to December 31st, 2019 from €476.8mn of the corresponding last year’s period implying an increase of 7.5%. The increase in sales was recorded despite the fact that toy sector in total did not demonstrate the same dynamic compared to the corresponding period last year for December. This trend is a worldwide phenomenon and it is attributed to the fact that nowadays children “migrate” earlier to suggestions like phones, music, etc. reducing the dynamic demand for expensive toys. The Group’s management has long pointed out this new trend in the toy market and as a result, there is no over-stocking (increased inventory) problem on the beginning of the New Year. The improvement of the economic sentiment in the Greek and Cypriot market had a decisive part on the Group’s performance. Net sales of the parent company (excluding intragroup sales) were increased by approximately +4%, while the sales of the stores in Greece were increased by approximately +3%. Sales in Cyprus were increased by more than +4% with sales in Bulgaria increased by approximately +7%. The contribution of Romania’s dynamic market was significant as sales’ growth rate exceeded + 20%. With the opening of the owned hyper-store at Brasov, Romania (approximately 14.000sqm) in November 2019, the store network of Jumbo Group now accounts for 80 stores. According to management’s planning by the end of December 2020, a new store will be added in Greece (approximately of 9.000 sqm). Regarding Cyprus, besides the opening of a new hyper-store in Nicosia (approximately of 11.000 sqm), Jumbo will also launch the online store. The Group will also operate a new privately owned store in Craiova, Romania (approximately of 12.000 sqm), while warehouses and services for Romania as e – jumbo (approximately 33.000 sqm) will be housed in the same complex. 

OTE: The company bought 35,500 own shares at €13.7882/share for a total consideration of €489.480K. Total treasury stock now amounts to 1.969% of share capital (9,450,443 shares). 

AVAX: As of today, the shares of the company  are traded on the ATHEX without the right to participate in the share capital increase, with the issue of 66,666,666 new (CR) shares, at an issue price of €0.30 per share. The rights’ trading period is set from January 27, 2020 to February 5, 2020, included. The rights’ subscription period is set from January 27, 2020 to February 10, 2020, included. Avax adjusted share price post rights cut off: €0.5370. 

Karatzis: Main shareholder and CEO Mr Karatzis acquired 5,643,204 shares from other major shareholder Mrs M.Karatzi at €8.4172/share (total cost consideration €47.5mn) and now controls 84.63% share in the company. Mr Karatzis submitted a tender offer to acquire the remaining 15.73% of the company (2,256,384 shares) at €10/share.

Real Estate:  Chinese investors are expected to invest up to 1.0 billion euros in Greece this year on real estate assets in the framework of the Golden Visa programme, the Association of Chinese Investors of Greece said during the opening event of its foundation last Saturday. he Greek government was represented by Nikos Papathanasiou, Development and Investments Deputy Minister. A representation of the Association is expected to meet with the deputy minister this week to discuss problems that arise in the framework of investment processes. According to official figures, Greece offered 6,304 visas to investors-buyers of real estate assets in 2019, of which 4,371 were Chinese citizens, following 4,065 visas in 2018, 2,232 in 2017, 1,273 in 2016, 785 in 2015 and 364 in 2014.). 

NBG: National Bank will reportedly register around €500mn one-off gains following the swap of €3.3bn 2023, 2025 and 26 Greek government bonds with a newly issued 30-year notes maturing in 2050 and carrying a coupon of 3.25%. NBG had acquired the portfolio as part of an interest rate swap with the government back in Feb-19 the so-called “Titlos swap” subsequently marking them as held-to-maturity and therefore not reflecting the recent appreciation in the value of GGBs. The deal increases 8% NBG’s Tangible Book Value and c130bps CET-1 making NBG able to execute a €6.5bn of securitizations in 2020 and comfortably absorb potential losses without needing fresh regulatory capital. The transaction will keep the bank’s NII stable but increase the underlying sovereign/bank feedback loop. Note that NBG in Q3:19 holds €6bn of GGBs in “held to maturity” bond portfolio.

The finance minister stressed that this deal is fiscally neutral and cash neutral for the Greek state, that it significantly reduces the risk of refinancing the state through a significant extension of maturity, that it is an emblematic issuance helping to reprice the Greek yield curve for all issues smaller than 30 years, while the state did not pay any commission. 

Quest Holdings: The company concluded the acquisition of a new solar park of 0.985MW in Central Greece for a total consideration of €1.9mn. Following the acquisition total solar installed capacity of the company amounts to 26.2MWs. Energy Sector accounts for 15% of our sum of the parts valuation for Quest Holding Group which trades at a FY’20 PE multiple of 11.1 and EV/EBITDA 4.3x. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation with €8.70 TP. 

PPC: PPC’s market share in the retail segment recovered in December, largely due to the seasonal effect of the Christmas period. PPC’s market share increased to 71.75% from 69.75% in the previous month, according to data provided by the Energy Exchange. The three largest independent retailers experienced a small reduction in their market shares with Mytilineos’ Protergia controlling 5.51%, Heron 5.25%, Elpedison 4.35%.  Also, Watt & Volt and NRG, wholly–owned by Motor Oil, held 2.51% and 2.18% respectively. Recall that Greece has agreed with its creditors to slash PPC’s market share below 50% by 2020. Moreover, that PPC’s management had stated that company’s budget for 2020 assumes a market share of 65%.

In other news the company names Mr Paterakis as Deputy CEO responsible for the digital transformation of the company 

Greece/Debt:  Greek public debt totaled €334.261bn at the end Q3:19, slightly up compared with €335.033bn a year earlier, Hellenic Statistical Authority said in a report on Tuesday. The statistics service said that general government revenue was €23.986bn in Q3:19 from €23.258bn in the same period in 2018. Income and property taxes amounted to €5.453bn (22.7% of total revenue), from €5.405bn (23.2% of total revenue) in Q3:18. Social contributions totaled €6.837bn (28.5% of total revenue) from €6.533bn (28.1%), respectively.

General government spending totaled €20.860bn in Q3:019, up from 20.763 billion in 2018 (primary spending rose to €19.566bn from €19.332bn). Payroll spending was €5.475bn (26.2% of total spending) down from €5.449bn (26.2%) of total spending in the Q3:18. Social benefits totaled €9.440bn (45.3% of total spending, down from €9.508bn (45.8%) in Q3:18. 

Greece/Economy: Taxpayers on middle incomes – i.e. earning from 12,000 to 50,000 euros per year – will benefit annually by between 2.2 euros and 207 euros from the reduction of the solidarity levy in the second half of 2020. On an annual basis the cut amounts to 4.4-415 euros. The government’s plan provides for the gradual abolition of the levy to begin from July 2020 and to be completed in 2021. There are many scenarios on the table, and they all depend on the fiscal space to be created. The definitive decisions will be made in May, when the government has the first concrete data from the execution of the budget, concerning the year’s first quarter. 

Greece/Travel Services Balance: Greece’s balance of travel services showed a surplus of €87mn in November, down from the year-ago figure of €153mn, according to provisional data from the Bank of Greece. In November, travel receipts dropped 0.8% y-o-y to €314mn while travel payments firmed 39% to €226mn. “The drop in travel receipts reflected a 16.9% year-on-year decrease in average expenditure per trip, as inbound traveler flows increased by 18.2%. Net receipts from travel services accounted for 16.2% of total net receipts from services and offset 5.2% of the goods deficit,” BoG said. The number of inbound visitors stood at 930K, compared with 786K in November 2018. In the January-November period, the balance of travel services showed a surplus of €15.4bn, up from a surplus of €13.9bn in the same period of 2018. 

Banking Sector: Credit standards and the terms and conditions for loans to non-financial corporations and households remained unchanged in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, according to a Bank Lending Survey conducted by the Bank of Greece. The terms and conditions for loans to NFCs remained overall unchanged, although the banks’ loan margins on ordinary loans eased slightly. Demand for loans to NFCs increased somewhat compared to the previous quarter due to the increased financing needs for fixed investments, mergers and corporate restructuring as well as for debt refinancing. A slight increase in the demand for loans to small and medium sized enterprises is expected in the first quarter. Also, the demand for loans to households increased somewhat compared with the third quarter of 2019, both for housing and consumer loans, “mainly due to increased consumer confidence, improved housing market prospects, a rise in the financing needs for expenditures for consumer durable goods, as well as the favorable level of interest rates,” BoG said. A slight increase in the demand for loans to small and medium sized enterprises and to households is expected in the first quarter. 

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