(11/9) – Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μ/μ (1)

ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ: Ανησυχεί η αγορά και θα έχει τους λόγους της. Εξ ου και οι πιέσεις στη μετοχή που γύρισε στα πέριξ των 2,0000 ευρώ.

ΣΕ ΔΙΑΡΚΗ ΑΝΟΔΟ οι ξένες αγορές, σε διαρκή πτώση η δική μας.

Sarantis (Results H1:19 preview): The company will announce H1’19 financial results today after market close. 
….
We expect a soft quarter for Greek Sales amid weak domestic retail consumption in H1’19, improving though when compared to 4M’19 trading update figure (-2.7%), strong Estee Lauder performance (contributing €4mn in Greek EBIT), flat Greek other operations EBIT margin (at 10.5%) as a result of lagging sales (we expect 5% lfl sales growth for the FY’19 plus €8mn additional sales contribution from Coty mass products distribution undertaken in November 2018) in combination with increased promotion and advertising expenses to support sales expansion (negative operating leverage effect).
  • On the international front, sales on a lfl basis are seen up by 4% to €97.44mn with Polish mash market operations stagnant due to stock reductions by prime retailers. Romania is up by mid-single digit growth (+6%) and Polipak is performing according to budget (+7% for FY 2019 top line projection). 
  • Negative operational leverage effect will take its toll on division’s EBIT margin leading to an 80bps EBIT LFL margin retreat to 4.2% (compared to 5% in H1’18) bringing H1’19 LFL EBITDA figure 12.4% lower to €4.1mn. 
  • Nevertheless, consolidation of Ergopack in Russia and Bulgaria for the whole period (compared to only 2 months, May and June, in H1’18) is expected to add €14mn additional sales and €1mn EBIT. 
  • Thus, all in we see SEE operations landing at €111.5mn sales, up 11.2% y-o-y, and total EBIT augmenting 6.9% to 5.13mn on lower EBIT margin retreat (-20bps to 4.6%).

In total we forecast cons sales up by 7% to 171.5mn, EBITDA up by 7.44% to 19.2mn, EBIT up 4% to 15.43mn (on higher depreciation charges) and Net income AM up 18.185 to €14mn on 15% effective tax rate impacted by positive financial and FX gains in H1’19 (vs negative in H1’18). As the company reported 4M’19 trading update we do not have comparable figures for Q2.

The following table summarize our estimates for Sarantis H1’19 financial performance:

Sarantis

2018

2019 Est.

Y-o-Y

EUR m.

H1

H1

(%)

Sales

160.3

171.5

7.0% 

EBITDA

17.9

19.2

7.4% 

EBITDA Mrg

11.2% 

11.2% 

+4 bps 

Net Income

11.9

14.0

17.8% 

Net Mrg

7.4% 

8.2% 

+75 bps 

 A conference call will follow on Thursday September 12th analyzing the group’s H1’19 performance. Dial in numbers:

§   Greece              +30 213 009 6000

§   France              +33 (0) 170 918 711

§   Germany          +49 (0) 69 2222 4493

§   Italy                  +39 06 452 36 748

§   UK & Intl           +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA                  +1 516 447 5632

****

OPAP (Results H1/Q2:19 preview): OPAP will announce H1/Q2:19 results today after market hours followed by a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 GR-Time. We expect a positive quarter on increased contribution of VLTs and resilient KINO performance. In more details:

§   Wagers are expected marginally higher (+1.3%) at 1,045.1 in Q2:19 due to VLTs performance. Specifically, VLTs’s GGR is seen higher at €72m vs46m a year ago on the back of Q1:19 rollout. Note however that during Q2:19 OPAP placed the rollout of the additional VLT machines (4,909) on hold until the resolve of the Council of State’s decision that annulled the HGC’s decision that set out the VLT’s regulation; by the time of the temporary freeze 20,091 machines were up and running.

§   Kino is expected up 1.2% posting a satisfactory €185m given the increased competition of VLTs.  Sports betting looks softer by 5.2% vs. Q2:18, yet on tough comps of World Cup 2018. This is attributed to improved gaming experience offered by OPAP’s agents, through the improved quality of many of OPAP’s shops, as well as the increased penetration of SSBTs. Finally, Lotteries ate expected marginally lower at €35m (-3.9%).

§   All in, we expect GGR to settle at €382m up 6.1% On a half year basis GGR is expected at €778m or 5.5% higher vs. H1:19.

§   Further down EBITDA is expected at €88.2m +25.6% positively affected by IFRS 16 (+c€2m). Accounting for 26m depreciation, 6m interest expenses and 29% tax rate we arrive at €40m net profits (+53%). On a half year basis, we expect OPAP to post €97.2m net profits in line with our call for €190m bottom line.

§   We also expect an interim dividend in the tune of 0.12 eur/share following company’s recent dividend policy. However, due to the pending tender offer (€9.12) OPAP may reschedule the distribution after 9M:19 results late November.

§   In the conference call we are looking for VLTs rollout update, any relevant development with Stoiximan buyout and online regulation.

The following table summarize our estimates: 

OPAP

2018

2019 Est.

Y-o-Y

2018

2019 Est.

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

H1

H1

(%)

Q2

Q2

(%)

Total Wagers

          2,111.3

          2,127.9

0.8% 

1,032.1

1,045.1

1.3% 

Payout Ratio

65.1%

63.4%

-163 bps 

65.1%

63.4%

-165 bps 

Sports Betting

202.4

191.7

-5.3% 

95.0

90.0

-5.2% 

Numerical Games

371.5

376.7

1.4% 

182.8

185.0

1.2% 

Lotteries

74.2

68.7

-7.4% 

36.4

35.0

-3.9% 

VLTs

89.4

140.9

 

46.0

72.0

 

GGR

             737.5

             778.0

5.5% 

        360.2

           382.0

6.1% 

EBITDA

157.4

199.8

27.0% 

70.2

88.2

25.6% 

EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR)

21.3% 

25.7% 

+434 bps 

19.5% 

23.1% 

+360 bps 

Net Income

66.1

97.2

47.0% 

26.2 

40.0 

52.7% 

Net Mrg (vs GGR)

9.0% 

12.5% 

+353 bps 

7.3% 

10.5% 

+320 bps 

 Conference Call Details September 12 (16:00 GR-time)

§   GR        +30 211 180 2000

§   US        + 1 516 447 5632

§   UK        +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   Other    +44 (0) 203 0595 872

*****

Mytilineos (Results H1/Q2:19 preview): Mytilineos Group will announce H1/Q2:19 results tomorrow before the opening. A conference will follow after the end of Thursday’s session. We expect a good set of results with energy sector dominating business segments. Liquidity improvements are set to improve net debt. In more details:

  • § As already preannounced the group sales are expected in the tune of €1.0bn. We are slightly below at €0.954m (+77.4%) assuming Metallurgy up by 17%, EPC flattish by 3.6% and strong Energy sales of 77.4%.

On the Metallurgy segment the drop in alumina prices is expected to decelerate momentum while already hedged Aluminium prices along with USD favorable parity will maintain the positive sign in sales growth. Recall that in H1:18 alumina prices hot multiyear all-time highs thus performance is considered more than satisfactory. The segment should post €332m of sales and €94m of EBITDA.

  • §   EPC business is forecasted flattish in turnover and EBITDA (+3.6% and 2.1% respectively) mostly accounting for RES projects abroad. EPC projects restart in Ghana will support margins, however the group already guided for lower margins in FY:19.

§   Energy sector will support results across the board. Despite the absence of capacity payments in Q2:19 electricity demand, higher utilisation and increase in retail market share (+100bps) will boost turnover at €419m (+77.4%).

§   Further down we expect net profits of €80.7m on higher taxation rate vs. 2018 and minorities from METKA EGN. On the cash flow front strong operating performance will lower net debt.

Overall a satisfactory set which is in line with company forecasts for turnover and EBITDA. We will look comments in the conference call with regards to new energy plant, trends in metallurgy prices and the energy landscape in Greece.

The following table summarize our estimates: 

Segment

Η1:19 Est.

Η1:18

Y-o-Y (%)

Q2:19 Est.

Q2:18

Y-o-Y (%)

Metallurgy

332.0

283.5

17.1% 

 

 

 

EPC

203.0

196.0

3.6% 

 

 

 

Energy

419.0

236.2

77.4% 

 

 

 

Group Sales

954.0

715.7

33.3% 

440.1

355.0

24.0% 

Metallurgy

94.0

99.0

-5.0% 

 

 

 

EPC

35.0

34.3

2.1% 

 

 

 

Energy

42.0

12.3

241.9% 

 

 

 

Other/Disc.

-2.0

0.0

 

 

 

Group EBITDA

169.0

145.5

16.1% 

77.0

68.6

12.2% 

Net Profits after Minor.

80.7

83.9

-3.8% 

31.0

42.8

-27.6% 

Metallurgy EBITDA margin (%)

28.3%

34.9%

-658 bps 

 

 

 

EPC EBITDA margin (%)

17.2%

17.5%

-25 bps 

 

 

 

Energy EBITDA margin (%)

10.0%

5.2%

+482 bps 

 

 

 

Group EBITDA margin (%)

17.7%

20.3%

-262 bps 

17.5%

19.3%

-184 bps 

Conference Call Details September 12 (17:30 GR-time)

§   GR        +30 211 180 2000

§   US        + 1 516 447 5632

§   UK        +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   Other    +44 (0) 203 0595 872 

*****

Papoutsanis: 

The company announced a strong set of H1 2019 results. Sales advanced by 20.2% on rising exports and hotel products contribution, to €14.4mn, EBITDA was up by 28.5% to 1.7mn and Netinocme launched 57.1% higher to €0.6K. Exports rose by 37% to €6.7mn accounting for 47% of sales. 

PAPOUTSANIS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Η1

Η1

(%)

Sales

11,981

14,400

20.2% 

EBITDA

1,323

1,700

28.5% 

EBITDA Mrg

11.0% 

11.8% 

+76 bps 

Net Income

382

600

57.1% 

Net Mrg

3.2% 

4.2% 

+98 bps 

****

Lamda Development: The company reported headline figures regarding H1 2019 period. NAV as of 30-06-2019 stood at €486.1mn or €6.24/share. Recurrent EBITDA (before revaluation) increased by 7.6% to €27mn while net earnings skyrocketed 48.2% to €37.2mn.

  • Malls turnover was up by 1.1% to €259.9mn with occupancy standing at 99%. Malls EBITDA was up 6% to €32mn (€30.2mn in the respective period last year). Lamda Development is close to sealing an agreement to open a major line of credit from foreign and domestic banks that will be used to finance the first phase of the Elliniko plot’s development.

A share capital increase is also under consideration, without its timing, coverage or amount having been determined yet. Announcements in that direction are expected by the end of the month and will likely include an invitation for an extraordinary general shareholders meeting for the approval of the credit line and the capital increase.

  • The capital injection moves that Lamda is discussing with Greek and foreign lenders as well as its partners in the Elliniko project coincide with a phase during which the maturation of the concession is rapidly heading toward completion after the change in government, and the financial settlement of the transaction is scheduled to take place within 2019.

According to the Elliniko master plan and the concession contract, the contractor has committed to invest €1.07bn in the first five years, while the start of the concession period will come with the payment of the first of three installments, amounting to €300mn. 

*Quest Holdings:

The company published an in line set of results compared to our estimates for the H1 2019 period. Sales advanced 12.3% to €258.2mn, 3.2% higher than our call for €250.2mn.

  • EBITDA landed 26.8% higher to €25.65mn, beating our call of €23.11mn by 11% on better e-transactions performance.
  • Finally, net income AM expanded by 41.1% to €10.42mn, 3% lower vs our guess for €10.74mn. Capex as of H1 stood at €2.7mn, mainly related to new 0.5MW solar park acquisition in January 2019.

Net debt settled at €2.4mn (compared to a net cash position of €20.5mn in H1’18) due to increased WC needs (regarding the retail and the services business) which is expected to normalize by end 2019. Overall a sound yet expected set of results with all business sunits performing as expected both on top line and EBITDA profitability. We have an OVERWEIGHT recommendation on QUEST Holdings with a TP of 8.70/share.

The company trades at a projected FY 2019 P/E ratio 14.5x and EV/EBITDA 5.6x.

The following table summarize Quest’s Q2/H1 2019 financial performance: 

Quest Holdings

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019

Act. vs

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019

Act. vs

EUR m.

Η1

Η1

(%)

H1 Est.

Est.

Q2

Q2

(%)

Q2 Est.

Est.

Sales

230.0

258.2

12.3% 

250.2

3.2% 

114.1

133.2

16.7% 

125.2

6.4% 

EBITDA

19.2

25.6

33.5% 

23.1

11.0% 

8.5

13.8

62.0% 

11.3

22.5% 

EBITDA Mrg

8.4% 

9.9% 

+158 bps 

9.2% 

7.5%

7.5% 

10.4% 

+290 bps 

9.0% 

15.2%

Net Income

7.0

10.4

49.9% 

10.74

-3.0% 

3.2

6.0

85.1% 

6.3

-5.1% 

Net Mrg

3.0% 

4.0% 

+101 bps 

4.3% 

-6.0%

2.8% 

4.5% 

+165 bps 

5.0% 

-10.8%

  • Conference-call: Thursday September 12th 16:00 Athens Time /14:00 UK time 
  • Conference call details: QUEST HOLDINGS GROUP 
  • Dial in numbers: 

•              GR Participants dial in: + 30 213 009 6000

•              UK Participants dial in: + 44 203 059 5872

•              US Participants dial in: +1 516 447 5632 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email