(2) @17:21 – To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου (28/5/2020)

ΕΤΕ ΒΑΝΚ: Για όνομα του Θεού… Κ/φση ούτε καν 1,2 δισ. ευρώ και βαράτε χάρακες για να δείτε το που θα πάει;; ‘Ελεος… Είναι η ΠΡΟΝΤΕΑ στα 2 δισ. ευρώ και κανείς δεν κάνει κουβέντα.

ΠΕΙΡΑΙΩΣ: Και αποκαλούν… σαπάκι την συγκεκριμένη. Όμως οι καιροί αλλάζουν, όσοι δεν καταλαβαίνουν το τι μέλλει γενέσθαι στο ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΠΕΔΙΟ δικαίωμα τους.

ΕΥΡΩΒ: Αυτή, δεν είναι πλέον τράπεζα. Είναι και Τράπεζα.

ΑΛΦΑ: Θα βρει το δικό της τέμπο… Προθέρμανση κάνει…

ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ: Από… μακρυά αυτή, αλλά σε αποδόσεις από… κοντά…

ΤΡΑΠΕΖΕΣ: Δεν μας απασχολεί το τι θα κάνουν βραχυπρόθεσμα, ήδη έκαναν πολλά, πάρα πολλά με +40%, πλην ΑΛΦΑ (+30%). Ίσως ξαποστάσουν οι μισές, ίσως και όχι.

ΤΟ ΚΟΥΙΖ ΕΠΑΝΕΡΧΕΤΑΙ: Θα χαθεί το τόπι… Μάλλον, δεν το έχει εντοπίσει κανείς.

ΕΧΟΥΝ ΧΑΣΕΙ την λαλιά τους, έχουν χάσει την μιλιά τους… Ποιοί άραγε;

ΕΕΕ και ΟΤΕ: Αυτές έφτιαξαν το σημερινό +0,72%… Το 50% του τζίρου στις “4”…

ΔΕΗ: Το είπαν, το κάνουν… Δεν κάνουν κουμάντο τα κουτσαβάκια.

ΤΡΑΠΕΖΕΣ: Και εδώ θα το κάνουν… Τους το χάλασε ο κορονοϊός, αν δεν τους το ξαναχαλάσει μη τις είδατε…

________________________________

(1) To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου (28/5/2020)

Stocks ended higher for the fourth straight session on Wednesday with banks staging a mini-rally for another session, with gains exceeding 10%. The European Commission’s proposal for the establishment of a 750 billion euros coronavirus recovery fund lifted spirits. Greece is expected to get some 32 billion euros in aid. General index ended at at 660.30 points, adding 3.91% to Tuesday’s 635.47 points. The large-cap FTSE 25 index expanded 4.44% to 1,588.41 points. The banks index built on Tuesday’s 12% rise with another jump of 10.23%, with Piraeus soaring 17.55%, Eurobank grabbing 10.10%, National earning 8.66% and Alpha improving 8.51%. OPAP collected 10%, Ellaktor rose 9.41% and Titan Cement climbed 8.73%, as Fourlis fell 2.47%. In total 83 stocks posted gains, 29 took losses and 15 remained unchanged. Turnover was the highest of the last 51 sessions, amounting to €124.6m , up from Tuesday’s €67 million.

After four positive sessions (cumulative gains 8.5%) investors and strong gains in banking sector short term traders may choose to lock some profits and increase offer. We expect market to consolidate on selective interest while banking sector remain on the spotlight as Q1:20 results premiere today.

Agenda: Frigoglass Q1:20 (bto), NBG Q1:20, Alpha Bank Q1:20, Kri – Kri Q1:20. 

Macros 

Greece/Economy: Greece is expected to receive some €32bn from the €750bn EU new recovery fund in a bid to revive its economy from the coronavirus impact, according to press reports.  Reportedly, Athens is expected to get €22.5bn in the form of grants and €9.4bn in loans. The European Commission will issue its proposal for a long-term European Union budget and a coronavirus recovery fund. Loans from the new recovery fund will have to be repaid by the governments but grants will not. 

Corporate 

Alpha Bank (Q1:20 results preview): Alpha Bank is set to announce Q1:20 results today followed by a conference call after-market-hours. We expect a marginal quarter as Covid-19 loan loss provisions will evaporate pre-provision income. In more details Q1:20 NII is seen lower by 1.8% on calendar effect (€4m) and tighter spreads. Despite late March loan disbursements in the tune of €1.6bn, average loans in Q1 were at a lower level vs. Q4:19 affecting negatively NII generation. On the other hand, fees are looking good y-o-y (+25.4%) on the back of credit cards transactions and new loans. Bond circulation assisted with €88m gains for another quarter reaching total income at €563m. Lower S&G costs and VRS savings assisted in reduction of 2% y-o-y of Total OpEx leading to Pre-Provision-Income of €306m (+12.8% y-o-y). The bank is expected to increase substantially LLP to €310m vs. €256.4m in Q4:19 and €264.8m in Q1:19 to reflect the impact of the pandemic. All in Alpha Bank is set to post a net loss of €1m.

In the conference call we will be looking for Galaxy securitisation update, trends in NPEs and guidance for major revenue figures and cost elements for the remainder of 2020. Alpha Bank trades at 0.17x P/TBV.

The following table summarize our estimates:

Alpha Bank

Act.

Act.

Est.

Latest read

Overview

(In Million Euro)

1Q19

4Q19

1Q20

QoQ

YoY

NII

388.4

387.1

380.0

-1.8%

-2.2%

Fee income

70.2

93.1

88.0

-5.5%

25.4%

Trading

73.8

121.1

85.0

-29.8%

15.2%

Other Income

0.9

6.0

10.0

65.5%

1011.1%

Total income

533.3

607.4

563.0

-7.3%

5.6%

Operating costs

-262.0

-351.1

-257.0

26.8%

1.9%

Pre-provision-profits

271.3

256.4

306.0

19.4%

12.8%

Provisions

-243.0

-244.8

-310.0

-26.6%

-27.6%

Other results

20

-6

0.0

PBT

48.3

5.4

-4.0

Corporate taxes

23.6

-0.1

-3.0

Net profit (continued)

25

6

-1

 

Conference Call: Thursday May 27 17.50 Greek Time

§  GR           +30 210 94 60 800

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA         +1 516 447 5632

§  Other      +44 (0) 203 059 5872

 

NBG (Q1:20 results preview): NBG will announce Q1:20 results today followed by a conference call after the end of the session. Results are affected from from bond exchange with Titlos that took place in December 2019. NBG is expected to book some €0.8bn in trading gains which relates to 515m capital gain from Titlos Swap and €300m from bond recycling. On core income we expect weak trends in NII and fees courtesy of calendar effect and lower average loan book vs. Q1:19. Total income is expected at €1.15bn. On the cost side we see OpEx at €210m assisted by 2019 VES while some VES burden is also expected in Q1:20. Pre-Provision Income is forecasted at €945m. Further down we expect the bank to increase loan loss provisions to €300m frontloading Covid-19 impact in loan book. All in we see net profits of €650m for the quarter. NBG trades 0.23x P/TBV

Conference call to focus on Icon transaction, NPEs formation in Q2 and how the bank will utilize capital buffer from the GGB gains to reduce NPEs.

The following table summarize our estimates:

NBG

Act

Est.

Latest read

Overview

(In Million Euro)

1Q19

4Q19

1Q:19

QoQ

YoY

NII

290

288

275

-4.5%

-5.2%

Fee income

59

71

65

-8.5%

10.2%

Trading Income

122

4

830

20650.0%

580.3%

Insurance/Other Income

-21

-21

-15

28.6%

28.6%

Total income

450.0

342.0

1,155.0

237.7%

156.7%

Operating costs

-205

-221

-210

5.0%

-2.4%

Pre-provision-profits

245.0

121.0

945.0

681.0%

285.7%

Provisions

-103

-105

-300

-185.7%

-191.3%

Other results

-7

4

10

150.0%

242.9%

PBT

135.0

20.0

655.0

3175.0%

385.2%

Corporate taxes

4

2

5

150.0%

25.0%

Net profit (continued)

131

18

650

3511.1%

396.2%

Discontinued operations

21

-651

0

Net profit

152

-633

650

202.7%

327.6%

 

Conference Call: Thursday May 27 18:45 Local Time

§  GR           + 30 211 180 2000 or +30 210 9460 800

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA         +1 516 447 5632

§  Other      +44 (0) 203 059 5872

Frigoglass (Q1:20 results): Group sales increased by 8% y-o-y, driven by demand growth in Commercial Refrigeration (+15% strong demand in Russia, India and Africa in January and February). EBITDA increased by 9% y-o-y, with EBITDA margin improvement in both segments. Adjusted Net Debt to LTM EBITDA at 3.3x, improved from 4.0x in 1Q19. In more details:

§  Gross profit (excluding depreciation) increased by 5.0% to €30.9 million in the quarter. The gross margin declined by 70 basis points year-on-year to 22.8% due to a less favourable sales mix, higher transportation costs and increased idle costs in some of our Commercial Refrigeration plants, more than offsetting volume growth and productivity gains.

§  Operating expenses (excluding depreciation) declined by 1.2% at €11.0 million. Consequently, operating expenses as a percentage of sales improved by 80 basis points to 8.1%. As a result, EBITDA increased by 8.7% to €20.5 million in the quarter. EBITDA margin improved by 10 basis points, at 15.1%. Net finance cost was €0.6 million, compared to €5.9 million in Q1 2019, supported by foreign exchange gains primarily caused by the impact from Naira’s devaluation on hard currency denominated monetary assets. Frigoglass reported a net profit of €4.4 million, compared to €2.0 million last year.

§  Adjusted FCF came at €2.1 million in Q1:20, compared to an outflow of €13.2 million in Q1 2019. This improvement was achieved through higher year-on-year EBITDA and better working capital management. Adjusted net debt was €247.4 million, compared to €250.6 million last year.

§  Group said that Q2 is expected to be impacted by the sharp decline in demand; April’s sales were down by approximately 54% y-o-y and that actions taken to adjust cost base to the reduced business activity and reprioritise capital expenditure reducing spending at around €15 million in 2020.

§  Frigoglass will host an analysts and investors conference call to discuss its first quarter 2020 results today at 4:00 pm, Athens Time (2:00 pm London time). Callers should dial +30 211 211 1511 from Greece, +44 207 194 3759 from the UK (also other international callers) and +1 844 286 0643 from the US. The access code to the conference call is 28172940#.

FRIGOGLASS

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Sales

125,565

135,897

8.2%

EBITDA

18,428

20,538

11.4%

EBITDA Mrg

14.7% 

15.1% 

+44 bps 

Net Income

2,030

4,445

119.0%

Net Mrg

1.6% 

3.3% 

+165 bps 

 

KRI-KRI (Q1:20 results preview): The company is expected to publish Q1’20 financial results today after market close. We expect a weaker y-o-y quarter in terms of operating profitability (EBITDA) and Net income amid implications from COVID-19 shutdown resulting in increased provisions related to bad receivables, increased PL contribution in product mix (lower gross margin business) and increased COGS due to alleviated raw material prices.

Ice cream performance will be subdued by lower orders for summer period ahead of pandemic spread and lockdown, partially offset by higher sales in the SM channel, albeit at a lower margin. Sales in the segment are seen retreating 24.1% to €2.26mn driven by a 25% decline in Greek ice cream sales coupled by a 20% drop in international sales. Q1 performance is not indicative though for the FY as Q2 and Q3 are of the greatest importance yet render visible (providing a good performance ahead) for a flat y-o-y change in the segment. EBITDA is seen negative at -€0.32 vs loss of €0.36mn last year.

Yogurt segment is projected to come in strong as increased demand from international markets, rising domestic market share and strong SM channel sales across all quarter are expected to boost division sales by 18.43% to €22.3mn on 17% Greek and 20% international sales growth respectively. Lower gross margin as a result of increased PL contribution and increased raw material costs in the beginning of the year will be partially offset by lower opex related to decreased advertising and promotion expenses related to PL products. Category EBITDA is forecasted to rise by a softer 7.3% rate to €4.23mn with the respective margin retreating by circa 200bps to 19% compared to 21% a year earlier.

All in we project Q1’20 sales rising 12.3% to €24.53mn and EBITDA is seen 2.5% lower y-o-y to €3.91mn on 241bps margin deterioration. Finally, on the net income line 24% assumed effective tax rate and increased depreciation charges as a result of increased capex in 2019 will bring net income for the quarter landing 9.8% lower y-o-y to €2.1mn vs €2.3mn.

The following table summarizes our forecasts for KRIKRI’s Q1’20 financial performance:

KRI-KRI

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1 est.

(%)

Sales

21,852

24,530

12.3%

EBITDA

4,010

3,910

-2.5%

EBITDA Mrg

18.4% 

15.9% 

-241 bps 

Net Income

2,292

2,070

-9.7%

Net Mrg

10.5% 

8.4% 

-205 bps 

 

JUMBO: AGM clears FY’19 remaining gross dividend distribution €0.062/share following the interim dividend distribution of gross €0.22/share in January 2020. Ex-dividend date on June 1st. Dividend payment June 9. Jumbo reiterated its guidance that the year of 2020 should be considered a “lost year”  as the percentage of the turnover that was lost due to the over two-month shutdown under the coronavirus lockdown measures, “is impossible to be replaced in total in the coming months.” Still, the retailer said it will press ahead with its investment program and announced the immediate opening of an online store in Cyprus and in Romania in early 2021. “In addition, the Group continues the preparations for the operation of new stores in Greece, Cyprus and Romania in early 2021,” it said.

 

Eurobank: Eurobank has become the first Greek lender to make use of the government’s Hercules scheme to reduce bad loans after gaining finance ministry approval for state guarantees on senior tranches of its Cairo I and II debt securitizations, officials at the bank said on Wednesday. The Cairo program consists of three securitizations that together amount to €7.5bn ($8.26 billion) and will help Eurobank to reduce its ratio of so-called non-performing exposures (NPEs) to 15% in the first quarter. “We got approval for Cairo I and II and expect approval for Cairo III in the next two weeks,” one of the bankers said. The Hercules scheme (HAPS) was put in place to help the banks to offload up to €30bn in bad loans. The Greek state’s guarantee on the senior notes amounts to about €2.4bn.

 

CC HBC: The company announced first products to launch in multiple European markets since The Coca-Cola Company acquired Costa Coffee last year becoming effective as of yesterday. Costa Coffee’s Signature Mocha Italia Blend became available to enjoy at-home, on-the-go and at-work in Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary. Availability will also be soon available in Greece, Switzerland, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Ireland and Northern Ireland, with more to come in 2020. Coca-Cola HBC’s offering will consist of a wide range of Costa Coffee blends and formats as well as best in class training, service and technical support. The full range of Costa Coffee products will include whole beans, roast & ground coffee, coffee pods, Ready-To-Drink coffee and self-serve barista-quality coffee on-the-go, via Costa Express machines. Although opening new franchise coffee shops is not part the company’s expansion plans, current Costa Coffee franchisees stores in some of these countries play an essential role in building and strengthening brand recognition.

 

MYTILINEOS: The company announced the repayment on June 29th of its €300mn notes issued back in 2017.

 

TITAN: Over the period 19/05 to 25/05 the company bought 47,129 own shares for a total consideration of €517.704K (€10.9848/share). Total treasury stock stands at 6.63% of share capital (5,470,102 shares).

 

OTE: On May 26, the company bought 55,928 own shares at €12.099/share (total cost €676.673K). OTE now owns 3,078,455 total own shares or 0.655% of share capital.

 

BRIQ PROPERTIES: On May 26, the company bought 3,000 own shares at €1.706/share (€5.116K).

 

TERNA ENERGY: On May 26, the company bought 12,000 own shares for a total consideration of €119.4K (€9.95 avg price per share).

 

Fourlis: On May 26, the company bought 4,073 own shares at €3.8695/share for a total consideration of €15.76K. Fourlis now owns 360,238 own shares or 0.6929% of share capital.

 

ATHENS WATER: Annual presentation to analysts regarding FY’19 results elaboration to be held today via teleconference.

 

PASAL: STERNER STENHUS GREECE AB to fully undertake upcoming €10mn share capital increase.

 

PAPERPACK: AGM clears FY’19 gross dividend distribution €0.50/share.

 

AEGEAN AIR: Government is expected to announce today details regarding financial support to the company due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Other Results:

 

VIOKARPET

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

119,409

125,750

5.3%

EBITDA

7,342

9,530

29.8%

EBITDA Mrg

6.1% 

7.6% 

+143 bps 

Net Income

171

1,270

642.7%

Net Mrg

0.1% 

1.0% 

+87 bps 

 

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

 

29/05 Intralot, AGM HELEX, AGM,

02/06 Dromeas AGM

04/06: Attica Bank AGM, Mytilineos AGM

10/06: Loulis Mills AGM

12/06: Fourlis AGM

16/06 Cretan Plastics AGM Bank of Piraeus EGM, Bank of Piraeus EGM,

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

24/06 Hellenic Petroleum AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM, Quest Holdings AGM

27/06 Jumbo AGM Dividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM Intralot AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM, Autohellas AGM

09/07 Aegean Air EGM

15/07 Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

17/07 Motor oil AGM. Alpha Trust AGM

19/07 Thessaloniki Water AGM

27/07 Varvaressos AGM

30/07 Trastor AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM

02/09 Newsphone AGM

 

Results Announcements

 

29/05   BYTE FY:19, Eurobank Q1:20

30/05    Athens Water FY:19

01/06   Piraeus Bank Q1:20 (After Market)

03/06    Motor Oil Q1:20

09/06   Quest Q1:20

17/06   Evrofarma FY:20

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19

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11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]


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