5:21μμ–To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μ/μ (21/11)

ΣΧΟΛΙΟ (ΛΟΥΚΑΣ ΠΑΠΑΙΩΑΝΝΟΥ): Το ευμετάβλητο Διεθνές περιβάλλον και οι προσέγγιση ισχυρών επιπέδων αντιστάσεων, τόσο σε Δείκτες όσο και σε μετοχές, αύξησαν τις πιέσεις στο Ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο, αλλά δεν εξάλειψαν τις προσδοκίες για ένα καλύτερο χρηματιστηριακό Νοέμβριο, όσο αντέχει  η ζώνη των 875-882 μονάδων στον Γενικό Δείκτη & των 2180- 2190 στον Δείκτη μεγάλης κεφαλαιοποίησης.

Οι μακροοικονομικές προβλέψεις για την Ελληνική οικονομία τόσο ως αναφορά τον (κυβερνητικό ) προϋπολογισμό του 2020, όσο και τις προβλέψεις του ΟΟΣΑ, συνεχίζουν να δίνουν μια θετική εικόνα για το μέλλον της χώρας, εγείροντας  όμως ακόμα μια φορά σοβαρά ερωτήματα για τα διαρθρωτικά προβλήματα της.

Κυρίως όμως  επικεντρώνονται στο ύψος και την ποιότητα  του ρυθμού ανάπτυξης, τον ρυθμό αύξησης των εξαγωγών, αλλά και τον βαθμό αντοχής της Ελληνικής οικονομίας σε αρνητικά εξωγενή γεγονότα, οικονομικού και γεωπολιτικού ενδιαφέροντος. Περιμένουμε αύριο με εξαιρετικό ενδιαφέρον την ομιλία της Christine Lagarde ως επικεφαλής της ΕΚΤ, αναμένοντας αυξημένη μεταβλητότητα.

Έτσι σήμερα, οι τραπεζικές μετοχές συγκέντρωσαν τις μεγαλύτερες πιέσεις αλλά και τον μεγαλύτερο όγκο συναλλαγών (43,7% του συνόλου), εν αναμονή των αποτελεσμάτων 9μήνου, αλλά και των παρενεργειών (θετικών & αρνητικών) του σχεδίου Ηρακλής. Η πρόσφατη προσέγγιση των τιμών τους στις τιμές των τελευταίων αυξήσεων κεφαλαίου τους, δημιουργεί σημαντικές τεχνικές αντιστάσεις και αυξάνει τις πιέσεις για καταγραφή βραχυπρόθεσμων κερδών.

  • ΑΝΟΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ: 31 -83
  • ΑΞΙΑ ΣΥΝΑΛΛΑΓΩΝ: 61,06 εκατ.
  • ΔΤΡ: – 1,35% στις 881,52 μονάδες με τζίρο 26,6 εκατ.
  • ΓΔ: -0,78% στις 883,39 με τζίρο 58 εκατ. ευρώ.
  • 25άρης: -0,73% στις 2201,84 και τζίρος 55,5 εκατ. ευρώ.
  • ΞΕΧΩΡΙΣΑΝ ΙΔΙΑΙΤΕΡΑ: ΦΙΕΡΑ, ΕΒΡΟΦ, ΟΤΟΕΛ, ΛΑΜΔΑ
  • ΥΣΤΕΡΗΣΑΝ: ΝΙΟΥΣ, ΠΠΑΚ, ΣΠΥΡΟΥ, ΒΥΤΕ κι αρκετές ακόμα.
  • ΑΠΟΓΟΗΤΕΥΣΗ ΔΙΑΡΚΕΙΑΣ από τις: ΠΛΑΙΣΙΟ, MIG, CENER, ΕΧΑΕ

ΕΠΙΣΗΜΑΝΣΗ: Η σημαντική επίδραση της Coca Cola λόγω κεφαλαιοποίησης στην διαμόρφωση του 25άρη έχει κατά καιρούς προβληματίσει ως προς την αντιπροσωπευτικότητα που έχει ο δείκτης της μεγάλης κεφαλαιοποίησης.

  • Ωστόσο μέρος αυτής της επίδρασης αναμένεται να εξομαλυνθεί σταδιακά με την αύξηση του μετοχικού κεφαλαίου της Lamda Development η οποία θα ξεπεράσει με άνεση το 1 δις ευρώ προσεγγίζοντας προς τα 1,25 με 1,3 δις ευρώ.
  • Η στάθμιση της μετοχής μετά τις πρόσφατες πωλήσεις ποσοστών από τους βασικούς μετόχους και τις ίδιες μετοχές θα ανέβει στην επόμενη αναθεώρηση του FTSE στριμώχνοντας τις υπόλοιπες μετοχές που συμμετέχουν στο Δείκτη.

ΕΤΕ ΒΑΝΚ: Κέρδη 379 εκατ. στο 9μηνο και στο 16,8% ο δείκτης CET1- ΑΡΓΟΤΕΡΑ ΤΑ ΣΧΟΛΙΑ

ΕΥΡΩΒ – 9ΜΗΝΟ

Image

Aegean Air 9M- 1st glimpse:

Good set broadly in line. Fuel costs increased by 17% in Q3:19 weighed on profitability

The following table summarize results vs estimates – ΒΕΤΑ – Μ.CHATZIDAKIS

AEGEAN

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019 Est.

Act. vs

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

(%)

Est.

Q3

Q3

(%)

Q3 Est.

Est.

Sales

939.3

1,031.9

9.9%

1,031.6

0.0%

483.6

512.5

6.0%

512.2

0.1%

EBITDA

125.9

230.8

235.8

-2.1%

140.6

168.0

173.0

-2.9%

EBITDA Mrg

13.4%

22.4%

22.9%

-49 bps

29.1%

32.8%

33.8%

-100 bps

Net Income

80.9

77.1

-4.7%

79.10

-2.5%

94.7

90.1

-4.8%

92.1

-2.2%

Net Mrg

8.6%

7.5%

-114 bps

7.7%

-20 bps

19.6%

17.6%

-199 bps

18.0%

-40 bps

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟΣ

ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΛΑΒΙ – ΙΣΤΟΡΙΕΣ ΠΑΝΤΟΣ ΚΑΙΡΟΥ ΚΑΙ ΤΥΠΟΥ 0,2100 13,51 % 0,0250 3.962
ΦΟΡΘ – ΟΜΟΙΩΣ 0,4620 11,06 % 0,0460 4.940
ΦΙΕΡ – H MTX TOY MHNA 0,6550 5,65 % 0,0350 34.606
ΜΑΘΙΟ 0,3020 5,59 % 0,0160 3.040
ΑΝΕΚ 0,0560 4,67 % 0,0025 2.889
ΦΡΙΓΟ 0,1980 3,13 % 0,0060 17.900
ΚΥΡΙΟ – Μη του πειράζεται τα κουβαδάκια του 2,0400 3,03 % 0,0600 1.525
ΑΣΤΑΚ 6,9000 2,99 % 0,2000 42
ΝΑΚΑΣ 2,1000 2,94 % 0,0600 691
ΕΒΡΟΦ – GROWTH STORY 0,9400 2,17 % 0,0200 33.674
ΦΟΥΝΤΛ 0,5100 2,00 % 0,0100 130
ΟΤΟΕΛ – ΡΕΚΟΡ ΠΑΝΤΟΥ, πλην στο ταμπλό… 7,2200 1,69 % 0,1200 143.686

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΣ ΟΓΚΟΣ

ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΕΥΡΩΒ – ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 0,9600 -0,52 % 6.580.095 6,27εκ.
ΑΛΦΑ – ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 1,8050 -2,43 % 5.260.679 9,58εκ.
ΕΤΕ – ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 3,0300 -0,98 % 2.091.639 6,32εκ.
ΠΕΙΡ – ΕΔΩ δεν μπορείς να τους κατηορήσεις… 3,0720 -1,22 % 1.400.674 4,36εκ.
ΜΙΓ – ΑΠΟ ΤΙΣ ΧΕΙΡΟΤΕΡΕΣ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΙΣΤΗΡΙΑΚΕΣ ΤΡΑΓΩΔΙΕΣ της σύγχρονης περιόδου του ΧΑ 0,0971 -1,32 % 1.082.156 105,4χιλ.
ΟΤΕ – ΔΕΝ ΚΟΣΤΙΣΕ ΚΑΙ ΛΙΓΑ ΔΙΣ και Η ΔΙΚΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΑΘΙΖΗΣΗ – ΝΑ ΜΗΝ ΤΑ ΞΕΧΝΑΜΕ 13,8000 -0,86 % 617.032 8,52εκ.
ΟΠΑΠ – ΟΤΑΝ ΕΧΕΙ ΔΙΑΝΕΙΜΕΙ ΤΕΤΟΙΑ ΜΕΡΙΣΜΑΤΑ ΔΕΝ ΜΠΟΡΕΙΣ ΠΑΡΑ ΝΑ ΤΑ ΥΠΕΝΘΥΜΙΖΕΙΣ – 15 ευρώ είναι αυτά, δείτε και την τιμή εισαγωγής του. ΕΥΓΕ!! 9,8500 -0,51 % 366.076 3,60εκ.
ΙΝΛΟΤ – ΕΧΕΙ ΤΟΝ ΔΙΚΟ ΤΗΣ ΚΟΣΜΟ 0,4050 0,00 % 326.720 133,5χιλ.
ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ – ΑΠΟΓΟΗΤΕΥΣΗ, αλλά έως πότε; 1,7100 -1,72 % 319.501 549,8χιλ.
ΔΕΗ – RESPECT γι αυτα που χάρισε εφέτος αλλά και παταγώδης διάψευση και τσάκισμα των επενδυτών επί σειρά ετών, πολλών ετών… 3,1040 -1,46 % 310.358 967,2χιλ.
ΕΧΑΕ – ΥΠΕΥΘΥΝΑ ΕΝ ΠΟΛΛΟΙΣ ΗΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΕΙΚΟΑ ΤΟΥ ΧΑ ΠΡΟΣ ΤΑ ΕΞΩ, όταν η πραγματική είναι πολύ καλύτερη, πάρα πολύ μάλιστα. 4,4900 -1,54 % 222.941 1,01εκ.
ΑΤΤ – ΕΦΕΤΟΣ ΚΑΛΑ ΤΑ ΠΗΓΑΙΝΕΙ, πολυ καλά, αλλά δεν μπορεί κανείς να ξεχάσει τα δικά της ΑΝΔΡΑΓΑΘΗΜΑΤΑ 0,4320 -1,14 % 215.946 93.319

ΜΕΓ. ΕΜΠΟΡΕΥΣΙΜΟΤΗΤΑ

ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΕΜΠΟΡ.
ΕΛΤΚ 3,3000 0,00 % 87.444 0,62 %
ΕΧΑΕ 4,4900 -1,54 % 222.941 0,37 %
ΜΛΣ 1,6200 -2,41 % 44.599 0,36 %
ΑΛΦΑ 1,8050 -2,43 % 5.260.679 0,34 %
ΦΙΕΡ 0,6550 5,65 % 34.606 0,34 %
ΠΕΙΡ 3,0720 -1,22 % 1.400.674 0,32 %
ΟΤΟΕΛ 7,2200 1,69 % 143.686 0,29 %
ΛΑΜΔΑ 7,9700 0,89 % 199.714 0,25 %
ΕΒΡΟΦ 0,9400 2,17 % 33.674 0,25 %
ΕΤΕ 3,0300 -0,98 % 2.091.639 0,23 %
ΙΝΛΟΤ 0,4050 0,00 % 326.720 0,21 %
ΕΥΡΩΒ 0,9600 -0,52 % 6.580.095 0,18 %

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΤΩΣΗ

  • ΔΕΝ ΑΝΤΕΧΟΥΝ ΣΧΟΛΙΑΣΜΟΥ, ΤΑ ΒΛΕΠΕΤΕ ΚΑΙ ΜΟΝΟΙ ΣΑΣ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΕΦΤΖΙ 0,3460 -29,67 % -0,1460 160
ΒΙΟΤ 0,0440 -18,52 % -0,0100 14.787
ΑΑΑΠ 1,1500 -15,44 % -0,2100 200
ΣΑΤΟΚ 0,0260 -10,34 % -0,0030 24.714
ΕΠΙΛΚ 0,2600 -7,14 % -0,0200 75.880
ΜΑΣΟΠ 0,9000 -5,26 % -0,0500 1.475
ΠΑΙΡ 0,3420 -5,00 % -0,0180 2.433
ΙΛΥΔΑ 0,2720 -4,90 % -0,0140 3.100
ΠΡΔ 0,1400 -4,76 % -0,0070 1.262
ΔΟΜΙΚ 0,1710 -4,47 % -0,0080 1.177
ΝΙΟΥΣ 0,4600 -4,17 % -0,0200 3.500
ΠΠΑΚ 4,8400 -4,16 % -0,2100 1.209

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ

ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΑΛΦΑ  ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 1,8050 -2,43 % 5.260.679 9,58εκ.
ΟΤΕ 13,8000 -0,86 % 617.032 8,52εκ.
ΕΤΕ  ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 3,0300 -0,98 % 2.091.639 6,32εκ.
ΕΥΡΩΒ  ΘΛΙΨΗ να παρατηρείς που πέφτει το χρήμα… 0,9600 -0,52 % 6.580.095 6,27εκ.
ΠΕΙΡ – 3,0720 -1,22 % 1.400.674 4,36εκ.
ΟΠΑΠ 9,8500 -0,51 % 366.076 3,60εκ.
ΜΟΗ 21,4800 -1,38 % 150.121 3,25εκ.
ΜΠΕΛΑ 17,9500 -2,97 % 153.445 2,77εκ.
ΕΕΕ 28,2400 0,86 % 65.245 1,84εκ.
ΛΑΜΔΑ 7,9700 0,89 % 199.714 1,58εκ.
ΜΥΤΙΛ 9,8100 -0,41 % 143.858 1,42εκ.
ΟΤΟΕΛ 7,2200 1,69 % 143.686 1,03εκ.

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΔΙΑΚΥΜΑΝΣΗ

ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΔΙΑΚ.
ΠΑΙΡ 0,3420 -5,00 % 2.433 27,22 %
ΑΑΑΚ 1,8000 0,00 % 82 20,00 %
ΦΟΡΘ 0,4620 11,06 % 4.940 16,83 %
ΠΡΔ 0,1400 -4,76 % 1.262 14,97 %
ΛΑΒΙ 0,2100 13,51 % 3.962 10,81 %
ΤΖΚΑ 3,9000 -2,01 % 161 10,55 %
ΑΚΡΙΤ 0,5000 0,00 % 140 10,40 %
ΜΙΝ 0,2800 0,00 % 1.550 10,00 %
ΦΙΕΡ 0,6550 5,65 % 34.606 8,87 %
ΔΡΟΜΕ 0,3820 0,79 % 10.958 8,71 %
ΠΕΡΦ 3,5200 -0,56 % 2.840 7,91 %
ΕΒΡΟΦ 0,9400 2,17 % 33.674 7,39%

______________________

(1) – To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (21/11)

In the Spotlight – Βeta Sec. 

Greece/Central Government Cash Balance: Greece’s central government cash balance recorded a surplus of €101mn in the January-October period compared to a deficit of €309mn in the respective period of 2018, data from the central bank showed. In September the cash balance was negative by €1.2bn. The primary position was positive by €5.56bn compared to €4.63bn in surplus in the respective period of 2018. Ordinary revenues were €40.5bn, slightly lower from the year-ago figure of €40.7bn while spending stood at €41.5bn versus €41.1bn in 2018. 

Greece/Economy: The European Commission said on Wednesday that Greece’s draft budgetary plan is found “to be compliant with the Stability and Growth Pact in 2020,” and “has adopted” the fourth enhanced surveillance report, thus opening the way for the transfer of SMP/ANFA income to Greek coffers. “This report could serve as a basis for the Eurogroup to decide on the release of the second set of policy-contingent debt measures worth €767mn,” EC said.

  • The report concludes that Greece has prepared a budget for 2020 that meets the agreed primary surplus target of 3.5% of GDP “in a growth-friendly manner, and that the government has overall taken the necessary actions to achieve its specific reform commitments for mid-2019, in the context of advancing a broader reform agenda. Further actions will be crucial to complete, and where necessary accelerate, reforms,” EC said.

The findings of this report will be discussed at the Eurogroup of 4 December 2019. The European institutions project the primary surplus to reach 3.8% of GDP in 2019, assuming that the payment of the Public Service Obligation to the Public Power Corporation of around €200mn will be covered from the contingency reserve. Moreover, the report said that the projection of 3.8% “does not take into account any possible additional one-off measures that might be adopted later in 2019 to use the available fiscal space.” 

Greece/Current Account Balance: 

Current account balance showed a larger surplus in September compared to the same month last year, thanks to higher tourism revenues, the Bank of Greece said on Wednesday. Central bank data showed the surplus at €0.887bn ($3.15 billion) compared to a surplus of €0.548bn in September last year. Tourism revenues rose 16% to €2.847bn from €2.454bn in the same month last year. Last year Greece’s current account showed a deficit of €5.3bn, up by €2.1bn y-o-y as the trade gap widened. 

Alpha Bank:

Chief executive Vassilis Psaltis told a press conference on Wednesday that the catalysts for preparing the securitization through the hiving off of Alpha’s bad-loan unit have been the maturation of a series of conditions, including the improvement of business sentiment and the strengthening of confidence, the rise in property prices and the creation of the state-guaranteed instrument (the Hercules plan) with the support of the Single Supervisory Mechanism.

The Alpha chief said the plan will lead to a significant reduction of the lender’s provisions, thereby strengthening the bank’s profits and creating the conditions for boosting capital. Psaltis said the success of the securitization depends on an assurance from the SSM that the state-guaranteed bonds to be issued will not have an impact on the bank’s capital. Alpha said c800 employees will be transferred to CEPAL (SPV operator) an approximate cost saving of €120m while another €50m in savings ie expected from network optimization (350 brunches from 450 currently). Regarding the Tier II bond management said that it will take place in 2020 and will be in the tune of €800m.

In other news Alpha Bank said that Blackrock’s voting rights in the bank stand above the 5% disclosure threshold, to 5.26%, excluding the stake held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund. The triggering transaction took place November 18. 

OTE: Treasury stock stands at 1.653% of share capital (7,931,595 shares). 

Titan: The company sold 5,220 treasury shares to 4 executives at €10/share ie €52.2K total value. Titan now controls 4,829,395 shares or 5.86% of share capital of TCI. 

IASO: BOD decided upon the distribution of past years profits of €2.44mn as an interim dividend implying a groos FY’19 interim dividend of €0.02/share. Dividend ex-date (cut-off date) is set on Monday November 25th while dividend payment will be concluded on Friday November 29th. 

Aegean Airlines (Results Q3/9M:19):

The carrier is scheduled to release its 9M:19 results on today after the end of the session. Aegean has already pre-announced 7% increase in passenger traffic for 9M19 driven primarily by international traffic (+11% y-o-y) that is expected to drive revenues up by 9.8% y-o-y to €1,030m. Unfavourable FX and higher fuel cost (+9%) in Q3:19 is expected to affect net profits that are seen lower at €79.1m (-2.2% y-o-y). As it is the first year of IFRS 16 implementation, which does not account for aircraft lease costs in the P&L, EBITDA is not directly comparable to last year. Note that the operating leases, under the new standard are accounted as rights of use assets (apart from ST operating leases), and accounted as increased depreciation and interest costs. On our net profit calculation, we applied tax rate of 28%. Aegean trades 12x its 2019 earnings and has a dividend yield of 6.5% thus we li. 

The following table summarise Q3/9M:19 estimates (note that EBITDA is not comparable due to IFRS 16 first year adoption) 

AEGEAN

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

9Μ

9Μ Est.

(%)

Q3

Q3 Est.

(%)

Sales

939,300

1,031,600

9.8% 

483,587 

512,202 

5.9% 

EBITDA

125,900

235,800

– 

140,642 

173,020 

– 

EBITDA Mrg

13.4% 

22.9% 

– 

29.1% 

33.8% 

– 

Net Income

80,900

79,100

-2.2% 

94,654 

92,120 

-2.7% 

Net Mrg

8.6% 

7.7% 

-95 bps 

19.6% 

18.0% 

-159 bps 

 

Eurobank (9M/Q3:19 results preview): 

Eurobank will announce Q3/9M:19 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. Eurobank is expected to post €62m net profits in Q3:19 as loan impairments gradually normalize to bank’s annual guidance. In more details:

§  Net Interest Income in Q3:19 is expected at €342 million, flat q-o-q, reflecting lower contribution from loans, due to spread pressure. In Q3:19, net fee and commission income is seen up at €93 million, up by 3.4% q-o-q or 17.6% y-o-y courtesy of increased credit card usage due to the tourist season.

§  Income from financial operations is expected flat at €24m. Total income is expected at €460 million (-6% q-o-q).

§  Further down we expect increased q-o-q OpEx in the tune of €230 million as a result of Grivalia merge and Bulgaria operations expand. Pre Provision income is forecasted at €230 million (-13% q-o-q)

§  NPL and NPE stock formation will remain negative, we pensil in 200m negative NPEs formation as the bank guided in Q2:19 call.

§  In Q3:19, impairment losses on loans and advances are forecasted at €150 million, vs. €183m in the previous quarter. CoR in Q3:19 stood at 1.3% over gross loan vs 1.66 in Q2:19.  All in Eurobank is expected to post net profits €62.4 million vs 6.2m in Q2:19 and €59m in Q3:18.

§  Focus in the conference call Cairo securitisation, announcements and comments regarding FPS and scheduling of the transaction will be in the spotlight. Eurobank trades at 0.6x its T/BV. 

The following table summarizes our estimates: 

Eurobank

Act.

Act.

Est.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

3Q18

2Q19

3Q19

QoQ

YoY

NII

352.0

342.1

342.0

0.0%

-2.8%

Fee income

79.1

89.9

93.0

3.4%

17.6%

Trading

40

26

25

-2.7%

-37.7%

Other Income

0

32

0

 

 

Total income

471.2

489.5

460.0

-6.0%

-2.4%

Operating costs

-216.7

-224

-230

-2.7%

-6.1%

Pre-provision-profits

254.5

265.5

230.0

-13.4%

-9.6%

Provisions

-176.3

-183

-150

18.0%

14.9%

Other results

3

-84

0

 

 

PBT

80.7

-1.5

80.0

5433.3%

-0.9%

Corporate taxes

22

-8

18

320.0%

-19.6%

Net profit

59

6.5

62.4

860.0%

6.1%

Discontinued operations

11

0

0

 

 

Net profit

45.1

6.5

62.4

860.0%

38.4%

  •  Conference call details (21/11 18:00 GR-Time)
  • §  GR        +30 213 009 6000/+30210 9460800
  • §  UK        +44 (0) 203 059 5872
  • §  US        +1 516 447 5632

NBG (9M/Q3:19 results preview): 

NBG will announce Q3/9M:19 results today after market hours followed by a conference call at 18:45 GR-time.

We expect a good quarter in terms of profitability as profits from bond trading assisted in pre-provision income. In more details:

§  Net Interest Income in Q3:19 is expected at €300 million, down by 2.9% q-o-q, on lower contribution from loans, due to spread pressure, and the negative effect from Bond portfolio. In Q3:19, net fee and commission income is seen up vs. Q2:19 to €62 million, up by 1.6% q-o-q reflecting an increased credit card usage due to the tourist season.

§  Income from financial operations is expected to soar at €100m in Q3:19, mostly attributed to gains realization from Bonds portfolio. Other income is expected at €8 million. Sum up for total income we expect NBG to post €470 million (+11,6% q-o-q).

§  Further down we expect flattish q-o-q OpEx in the tune of €205 million. Pre Provision income is forecasted at €265 million (+22.1% q-o-q).

§  NPL and NPE stock formation will remain negative while Greece is expected to post NPEs decrease of €1.1bn posting an NPE ratio of 34.6%.

§  In Q3:19, impairment losses on loans and advances expected at €99 million, vs. €101m in the previous quarter. CoR in Q3:19 stood at 1.1% over gross loans.  All in NBG is expected to post net profits €172million.

§  Focus in the conference call on NPEs reduction via Hercules plan and NBG Insurance sale (non-binding bids deadline extended to November 28). NBG trades at 0.48x its T/BV. 

The following table summarizes our estimates: 

NBG

Act.

Act.

Est.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

3Q18

2Q19

3Q19

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

NII

273.5

309

300

-2.9%

9.7%

Fee income

59.4

61

62

1.6%

4.4%

Trading Income

16.2

27

100

270.4%

517.3%

Insurance/Other Income

-8

24

8

-66.7%

200.0%

Total income

341.1

421.0

470.0

11.6%

37.8%

Operating costs

-244.8

-204

-205

-0.5%

16.3%

Pre-provision-profits

96.3

217.0

265.0

22.1%

175.2%

Provisions

-81

-101

-99

2.0%

-22.4%

Other results

1

11

0

 

 

PBT

16.4

126.8

166.0

30.9%

912.2%

Corporate taxes

9

5

9

80.0%

0.0%

Net profit (continued)

7

122

157

28.9%

2021.6%

Discontinued operations

17

82

25

-69.5%

47.1%

Net profit

24

204

182

-10.7%

645.9%

Minorities

-8

-12

-10

16.7%

-25.0%

Attributable net profit

16

192

172

-10.3%

948.8%

  •  Conference call details (21/11 18:45 GR-Time)
  • §  GR        +30 213 009 6000/+30210 9460800
  • §  UK        +44 (0) 203 059 5872
  • §  US        +1 516 447 5632

Fourlis (Q3/9M’19 results Conference Call Update):

On a consolidated level out of the 6.72% sales growth 2% was lfl. On the IKEA segemtn lfl was in the tune of 2% (out of the 3.56% quarterly top line growth) whereas on the Intersport division lfl came in at 85 (on total quarter sales growth of 12.93%). Greece contributed 4% of quarter top line growth with SEE adding a hefty 9%. Outlook for Q4’19 remains upbeat for the Intersport brand on improved consumer sentiment leading to better margin impulse consumption and upbeat confidence index adding momentum to sales. IKEA and Intersport e-sales combined reached 15% of consolidated sales in Q3 while new stores (namely 2TAF, 5 Intersport and IKEA 3 new Pick up points) added a 5% in total sales growth. In Greece Intersport e-sales accounted for 5% of total sales and on the IKEA brand e-sales were 11% of total. IKEA existing stores added 1% lfl growth while Intersport old stores lfl was 2%. The company invests in e-commerce digitalization through social media promotions and new CRM facility while new e-commerce platfroms for both IKEA and Intersport will be operational by the beginning of 2020.

In IKEA new e-commerce platform (Navision 8) throughout all markets is operational since June 2019. Extra one –off costs of €1mn regarding Fourlis Trades REIC to be booked in FY’19 of which €400K already in IKEA 9M’19 figures eroding EBITDA margin. Quarterly lagging EBITDA margin compared to gross margin is also due to the 2 new pick up points launched in late Q2’19 and the free transportation promotion that alleviated delivery costs in Q3 as opposed to Back to school promotion in Q3’18 that impacted gross margin rather than selling expenses. New IKEA concept smaller stores in Greece (namely Patras and Crete) due in 2021 while a new IKEA store of this concept will be launched in Q4’20 in Varna replacing the existing pick up point there. IKEA will also lauch thematic stores in town centers while in existing big IKEA stores other retail concepts will be included.

In INTERSPORT/TAG franchise Gross margin pressure to ease in crucial Q4 quarter as Q3’19 was impacted by extended sales and offers period on long lasting summer weather across operating countries.

For Q4’19 they opt for IKEA marginally positive performance on a rather flat domestic furniture market while in Intersport they gain MS despite persisting high temperatures for the period denting consumer spending. IKEA Cyprus and Bulgaria keep performing well. IFRS 16 positive impact in Q3’19 EBITDA was €15.2mn (benefit from rents) while negative impact on increased expenses due to leases and depreciation was €17.5mn thus impacting bottom line by €2.3mn. on a FY basis this negative impact will reach €3mn (€20mn positive EBITDA and €23mn negative impact below the EBITDA line ie €17.5mn in deprecia5tion and €5.5mn in lease expenses). Net Debt for FY’19 is seen at €105mn, €10mn deterioration compared to €95mn in FY’18 due to IKEA mother company ending credit facility leading to a FCF for the FY to €5-€7mn while from 2020 onwards FCF will return to the normal €10-€15mn range.

The company is in talks with a strategic partner to participate in the formatting REIC through a €160mn equity injection in cash. For 2020 outlook is positive for the domestic furniture market which is forecasted rising by 3% while for IKEA they project more than 3% growth. Overall a positive view for the Group, we will revert shortly with an update. 

Autohellas (9M/Q3:19 results): 

Group’s turnover reached € 418.9m, vs. € 361.4m. in the respective period of 2018, recording a 15.9%. In same period EBITDA reached €127.3m. an increase of 9.4%.  Earnings After Tax reached € 40.5m, from € 37.6m in the nine-month period of 2018, up 7.9%. Group Equity reached € 272.5m. as at 30/09/2019, against € 245.9m the respective period last year.

In 9M:19 there was an investment of € 143.9m in new vehicle purchases, with the Group’s total fleet having increased by 2,900 cars as of 30/9/2018, reaching 47,600 cars, of which 35,100 in Greece and the remaining 12,500 in the 7 countries where the Group operates.

Rental activity in Greece and its International Subsidiaries increased by 3.7%. Long-term leases continued to grow both in Greece and Internationally, while short-term leases slowed down, affected by the marginally positive arrivals in Greece and overseas markets. Used fleet sales activity, being a complimentary to the rental activity, increased by 13.2% compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, the trade activity of new cars, spare parts and services contributed a total of € 219.9m. to the Group’s turnover compared to € 172.5m. in the respective period last year, showing an increase of 27.6% contributing 53% of the Group’s Turnover. The growth rate of the Auto Trade segment significantly exceeded the market growth rate of 10%, broadening its market share in the Greek market in both wholesale and retail level.

Note that the acquisition of ELTREKKA SA by the Group, impacted its turnover by only € 8m. during the nine-month period, since the transaction completed on 31 May 2019. 

AUTOHELLAS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

(%)

Q3

Q3

(%)

Sales

361,421

418,915

15.9%

134,139

160,087

19.3%

EBITDA

116,324

127,293

9.4%

55,573

58,823

5.8%

EBITDA Mrg

32.2%

30.4%

-180 bps

41.4%

36.7%

-469 bps

Net Income

37,571

40,541

7.9%

24,322

24,368

0.2%

Net Mrg

10.4%

9.7%

-72 bps

18.1%

15.2%

-291 bps

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email