[3] Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (15-05-2020)

Με έντονη ανοδική τάση οι δείκτες των μετοχών του χρηματιστηρίου Αθηνών μετά τις προηγούμενες πτωτικές συνεδριάσεις, Τρίτη 3 Μαρτίου 2020. ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ/ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ/Παντελής Σαίτας
  • SPREADS
  • Μια χαρά κρατούν.
ΧΩΡΑ ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ % Spread vs BUND
ΕΛΛΑΔΑ 2,05 +2,59
ΠΟΡΤΟΓΑΛΙΑ 0,87 +1,40
ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ 0,81 +1,35
ΙΤΑΛΙΑ 1,84 +2,38

ΣΤΑΤΙΣΤΙΚΑ: Η σημερινή συνεδρίαση ήταν η τελευταία της χρηματιστηριακής εβδομάδας, που αποδείχθηκε δεύτερη συνεχόμενη πτωτική για τον ΓΔ, με εβδομαδιαίες απώλειες 1,79%. Στο ίδιο διάστημα, ο ΔΤΡ υποχώρησε κατά 11,84%. Από την αρχή του χρόνου, ο πρώτος υποχωρεί 35,28% και ο δεύτερος κατά 69,18%.

ΜΑΝΟΣ ΧΑΤΖΗΔΑΚΗΣ: Η διαγραφή των τριών συστημικών τραπεζών και της Τιτάν καθώς και τα αποτελέσματα των εταιριών απασχόλησαν το ενδιαφέρον της εγχώριας επενδυτικής κοινότητας ξεφεύγοντας λίγο από την ειδησεογραφία του κορωνοιού.

  • Η καλή πορεία που παρατηρείται στην Ελλάδα αναφορικά με την εξέλιξη των κρουσμάτων της Πανδημίας έχει λειτουργήσει ανασταλτικά στις εισαγόμενες πιέσεις και τον περιορισμό της μεταβλητότητας σε σημαντικό αριθμό δεικτοβαρών μετοχών. Εξαίρεση σε αυτή την σχετικά αισιόδοξη εικόνα αποτελεί ο τραπεζικό κλάδος ο οποίος για δεύτερη φορά μετά το 2018 θα βρεθεί χωρίς εκπρόσωπο στο δείκτη αναφοράς της Morgan Stanley.

Η εξέλιξη αυτή οδήγησε σε ακραία μεταβλητότητα -όπως ακριβώς είχε γίνει και το Νοέμβριο του 2018- καθώς το μέγεθος των εκροών σε σχέση με τα συναλλακτικά δεδομένα της Αγοράς δεν μπορεί να χαρακτηριστεί αμελητέο.

  • Παρόλα αυτά επειδή οι Αγορές τείνουν σε κάθε επανάληψη ενός «ειδικού» φαινομένου να προεξοφλούν πιο γρήγορα τις εξελίξεις φαίνεται να έχει υπάρξει σε δεύτερο χρόνο αναχαίτιση της προσφοράς, ίσως όχι στο βαθμό που να μπορεί να θεωρηθεί ότι έχει κλειδώσει η αναδιάρθρωση με προσυμφωνημένες συναλλαγές αλλά πάντως σε μια κλίμακα που να θεωρείται ελεγχόμενη για τις εμπλεκόμενες μετοχές.

Το συμπέρασμα αυτό προκύπτει κυρίως από την συνεδρίαση της Πέμπτης και όχι τόσο από την ανοδική αντίδραση της Παρασκευής. Υπολείπονται ακόμα 10 συνεδριάσεις για την ολοκλήρωση των αναδιαρθρώσεων οι οποίες θα συνεχίσουν να έχουν βαρύνουσα σημασία στην διαμόρφωση του κλίματος.

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[2] Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (15-05-2020)

ΣΥΝΕΧΙΖΕΤΑΙ η νωχελική τερματική εικόνα στο Χ.Α, με τις μικρές αυξομειώσεις σε γδ και τις ακραίες πανάθλιες παραστάσεις του terminator κλάδου και δείκτη του ελληνικού επενδυτικού λόμπι που οδηγήθηκε αυτοβούλως στην σφαγή για μία τουλάχιστον 10ετία.

  • Η ζημιά που προξένησε στην αγορά είναι ανυπολόγιστη και μη θεραπεύσιμη στον αιώνα τον άπαντα. Τα δεκάδες δισεκατομμύρια κεφαλαίων των ελλήνων επενδυτών εξαφανίστηκαν στην απέραντη χοάνη του και δεν πρόκειται να ξαναγυρίσουν.

Τώρα, αν μερικοί traders και μεσοπρόθεσμοι επενδυτές καταφέρουν να βγουν κερδισμένοι προσεχώς θα είναι απλά μία σταγόνα ικανοποίησης στον ωκεανό της απόλυτης καταστροφής. Μίας καταστροφής, που όμοια της δεν έχει υπάρξει στην παγκόσμια χρηματιστηριακή ιστορία και που ούτε πρόκειται να ξαναϋπάρξει.

Στα 53 εκατ. ευρώ η αξία των σημερινών συναλλαγών, εκ των οποίων τα 27,5 εκατ. (λίγο πάνω από το 50%) πραγματοποιήθηκε από μόλις 3 τίτλους (ΟΤΕ με 11 εκατ., ΕΥΡΩΒ 9,1 και ΕΤΕ 7,4 εκατ. ευρώ).

ΞΕΧΩΡΙΣΑΝ οι μετοχές των ΑΡΑΙΓ με άνοδο 5,73% (εδώ έχει πέσει το βάρος του ομίλου για ευκόλως εννοούμενους λόγους, ενώ στην άλλη, την ΟΤΟΕΛ δηλ., δεν δίνουν την παραμικρή σημασία γιατί ξέρουν τι ακριβώς κρατάνε στα χέρια τους…), ΚΟΥΕΣ στο +4% με 460 χιλ. τζίρο, και φυσικά πάνω από όλα η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ με τζίρους 1,4 εκατ.ευρώ, άνοδο 3,90% στα 6,1300 ευρώ…

ΑΡΝΗΤΙΚΟΙ ΠΡΩΤΑΓΩΝΙΣΤΕΣ οι ΡΕΒΟΙΛ, CNL, ΓEBKA, XAIΔE, ΚΕΚΡ, ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ, ΒΙΟΚΑ, ΝΑΥΠ κλπ…

  • Στο +0,87% ο ΓΔ στις 593,26 μον., με υψηλό του τις 601,10 όπου ενισχυόταν 2,21%
  • Στο +1,78% ο ΔΤΡ στις 272,81 μον., με υψηλό του τις 282,50 όπου ενισχυόταν 5,40%
  • Στο +1,22% ο Ftse25 στις 1420,23 μον., με υψηλό ατις 1436 όπου ενισχυόταν 2,34%

ΣΥΝΕΧΙΖΕΤΑΙ σε λίγο (θα αλλάξει η φωτό)

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[1] Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (15-05-2020)

Daily Monitor 15-05-2020

A moderate bounce is the scenario of the day while MSCI expected outflows will keep volatility in credit sector.

Agenda: May futures expiration; IPTO FY:19 Conference Call

Macros 

Greece/Economy: Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis said his government’s planning envisions a tourism season for the eastern Mediterranean country beginning on July 1, as coronavirus restrictions – both in Greece and the rest of Europe – are gradually being lifted. The biggest concern in Greece in the post-lockdown period is how and to what extent the all-important summer holiday season will be salvaged, as tourism and travel comprise an imperative portion of the economy. Speaking to some 500 executives and analysts via teleconference, Mitsotakis said the challenge for the tourism sector in Greece during the current, pandemic-battered year, is to acquire a bigger share of a much smaller “market pie”. He also promised that a privatization program will continue unabated, while pointing to a need for an acceleration of investment in a “green economy”. 

Corporate

OTE (Q1:20 Results review): HTO posted a satisfactory set of results posting a resilient top line in Greece and Romania. OTE reported net revenues of €941.1m, up 3.6% y-o-y.  Adjusted EBITDA After Lease (AL) reached €322.1m (+4.5% y-o-y), OTE reported adjusted net profit of €112.5m, up 78.9% y-o-y, on improved operating profitability and lower depreciation charges (recall Q4:19 impairments), finance costs and taxes.

  • In more details, revenue growth was driven by the 9.5% increase in Romania’s top-line to €237m, courtesy mainly of lower-margin ICT and wholesale In Greece, total revenues were up 1.4% y-o-y to €707m, thanks to fixed line operations. In terms of Q1:20 EBITDA, Greece was  up 2.0% y-o-y to €288.3m and an underlying margin of 40.8% (+0.3bps) and Romania increased by 31.5% y-o-y to €33.8m thanks to cost savings from VRS and other expenses.
  • CapEx excluding spectrum costs fell 5% y-o-y to €166m, with operating Cash flow up 41% y-o-y to €299m on improved working capital, leading to adj. FCF of €133m from €36m in Q1’19.
  • Net Debt incl. leases fell sequentially by €116m to €930m (- 19% y-o-y)  As of  end Q1:20 OTE held 1.13m own shares (0.23% of total), purchased under the share buy-back programme of 2020.
  • During the conference call the incumbent reiterated its full-year guidance for adj. CAPEX of €600mn, adj FCF of €610mn and reported FCF of €350mn. Moreover, it reiterated the shareholder return of €400mn which implies a dividend at €0.55 per share. Regarding the impact from the pandemic spread, OTE said that it will be more apparent in Q2’20 with complete lockdown in place affecting receivables and tourism downturn hurting €45mn roaming revenues. Q1’20 was left with only two weeks of lockdown so top line performance was not hurt. The Company intends to implement stringent cost-reduction measures across all areas, to maintain its profitability and cash flow generation in 2020.
  • Strong data usage in Q1’20 and increased broadband usage and penetration seen as a continuing trend for FY’20. Regarding future dividend policy it will continue in the same pattern with 65% of FCF returned to shareholders via dividends and 35% on share buybacks.
  • As it regards to Romania operations management did not rule out potential disposal providing that current undergoing restructuring bears further fruits leading to higher EBITDA margin and profits
  • On May 13, the company continued its share buyback program by acquiring 37.680 own shares at €11.4004/share for a total consideration of €429.567K. Total treasury stock amounts to 0.568% of share capital (2,669,953 shares).

Overall a good start for the year, a defensive stock that justifies a good dividend yield at current levels (4.5%) HTO trades 13.5x its 2020 expected earnings and 4.5x its EV/EBITDA.

The following table summarise results vs. consensus estimates:

ΟΤΕ

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

2020 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1

Est.

Sales

908.6

941.0

3.6% 

915.0

2.8% 

EBITDA

308.3

344.0

11.6% 

343.6

0.1% 

EBITDA Mrg

33.9%

36.6%

+263 bps

37.5%

-99 bps

Net Income

61.9

103.2

66.7%

94.60

9.1%

Net Mrg

6.8%

11.0%

+415 bps

10.3%

+63 bps

 

Titan Q1:20 results review): Titan held yesterday a conference call to discuss Q1:20 results. Key points are:

  • Management said that cost savings will be in the tune of €33m excluding savings related to fuel prices. Labor costs savings account for 33% of total amount.
  • In the US there is a differentiation of the demand from region to region with the New York recording the highest decline (30-40%) while Florida drop is c10%. In January Titan increased Prices in Florida region by  $2-3$ per ton on average.
  • In Greece TCI  expects a from tourism industry, yet management said that recovery in Greece is mostly related to the increase of the private building activity, and the start of various infrastructure projects like Hellinikon, Kastelli Airport, Athens Metro Line 4, Piraeus Port upgrade and road projects.
  • In the South East Europe April, Lockdown resulted in a significant drop in demand in the area to 30-40% while now there is a gradual recovery.  In 4M:20 there is no pressure on the pricing front.
  • In Q1:20, Egypt recorded a 5% increase in volumes derived mainly from increase in private building activity yet prices are at extemely low levels due to competition. In Turkey demand is mixed looking to various local regions as a result the picture in Istanbul is quite different vs. the one in Ankara’s suburbs

The following table summarise Q1:20 results:

ΤΙΤΑΝ

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Sales

362.7

384.8

6.1% 

EBITDA

44.3

40.6

-8.5% 

EBITDA Mrg

12.2%

10.5%

-168 bps

Net Income

-7.3

-16.3

-122.0%

Net Mrg

-2.0%

-4.2%

-221 bps

 

ADMIE (FY 2019 Results): A conference call will analysts and investors will take place today at 16:00 GR-Time. Net Income for 2019 stood at € 105.6m, higher by 28.4% vs. € 82.2m in FY2018, while adjusted Net Income increased to € 78.7m vs. € 69.7m last year. IPTO announced remaining gross dividend €0.029/share. 2020 interim dividend €0.089/share implying a current gross dividend distribution of €0.118/share (5.9% DY over yesterday’s close price €2/share). CAPEX at €249.3mn with net debt rising to €201mn (Net Debt/Recurring EBITDA 1.15x), total debt €627mn. The company said that secured loans with interest rate below 2.5% to finance Ariadne project (Peloponissos – Crete interconnection); signing with contractors will take place end May early June. 

ADMIE

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

247,400

249,800

1.0% 

EBITDA

180,900

224,100

23.9% 

EBITDA Mrg

73.1% 

89.7% 

+1,659 bps 

Net Income

82,200

105,600

28.5% 

Net Mrg

33.2% 

42.3% 

+905 bps 

 

Conference call details (15/05, 16:00 GR-Time)

  • GR           +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800
  • UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063
  • USA         +1 516 447 5632
  • Other      +44 (0) 203 0595872

PPC: Reportedly electricity bills payments for April declined by 9.0% for PPC vs. the 25%-30% decline recorded in the last weeks of March. Initial data show an even better performance (compared to the -9%) for May.

Eurobank: Italian doValue has reportedly reiterated its intention to conclude the debt purchase agreement with Eurobank within May.  During its first quarter conference call, doValue has reportedly also said that it expects non-performing exposures to increase between €10 and €15bn due to coronavirus pandemic. doValue has agreed to buy an 80% of Eurobank’s servicing firm Financial Planning Services and also a 20% portion of mezzanine securitization notes and the minimum required percentage of the junior notes of the €7.5bn multi-asset NPE securitization, named Cairo. Moreover, doValue said also that the terms of the deal are being renegotiated without providing, however, more details.

PRODEA REIC: Finishing construction and finally opening the port city of Piraeus’ lone high-rise tower has received a “green light” by the Court of Audit, an administrative high court that approved of the municipality’s concession contract with a property developer. Recall that a binding offer for the 99-year of a high-rise building in Piraeus’ business district was opened last October (2019), with a consortium consisting of Prodea Investments, Dimand and the EBRD submitting the bid. The estimated investment on the part of the consortium is roughly €50mn, with office space and possibly a hotel planned.

Aegean Air: Greece’s largest carrier Aegean Airlines said on Thursday it will gradually restart flights from Athens to some major European destinations by the end of May, ending a suspension prompted by the new coronavirus pandemic. Aegean suspended its international flights on March 26 as a result of flight restrictions related to the coronavirus crisis. The carrier said it will restart operations from its Athens hub to Munich, Zurich, Frankfurt and Geneva, initially with a reduced timetable. It will also add more flights to Brussels – the only international destination that had not been suspended during the lockdown period. Additionally, Aegean will increase flights in its domestic network from May 18-25, adding capacity to destinations including Iraklio and Hania in Crete, Thessaloniki, Alexandroupoli and the islands of Rhodes, Corfu, Lesvos, Chios and Samos. “Aegean is willing to gradually and with extreme cautiousness restore its network while fully respecting the tremendous national effort to control the Covid-19 outbreak within the country,” the carrier said. In preparation for the resumption of flights, Aegean said it has already stepped up precautionary measures, including the mandatory use of masks during flights and aircraft cleaning and disinfection procedures.

Lamda Development: A demolition order for about 450 buildings inside the mixed-use development of the former Athens airport at Elliniko was published in the government gazette on Wednesday, opening the way for work to begin at the site. The decision will affect 958 “volumes” inside the plot of the former airport which include 450 buildings, facilities, supporting infrastructure and other types of construction. The process started in April this year, with the Development Ministry legalizing the buildings that had been raised on the site, regardless of whether they had a permit, to avoid the lengthy process followed for illegal constructions. According to the ministry, no other approvals or legislation is required to start demolishing the buildings.

KRI KRI (FY:19 Conference Call)During the conference call yesterday for Q1’20 financial performance the management guided for same level gross margin for 2020 similar to the one recorded in FY’19 in the tune of 35% as a result of increased PL contribution in total sales, increased raw material prices and sales mix. Yet mitigation on the EBITDA will be alleviated due to reduced promotion and advertising expenses related to PL and cost cutting in personnel expenses and transportation costs.

  • Capex for 2020 is projected at €9mn including €5nmn capex for biomass energy production unit that might be transferred for 2021. Dividend payout will remain close to the 40% level. Cash flow generation remains strong with WC not being affected by the covid 19 pandemic as receivable collection progresses well and improves through the larger yogurt exports participation (better and sooner payment terms by foreign retailers).
  • Regarding operating trends yogurt demand remains strong both domestically and for exports as all main selling channels (SMs) remain open. KRI KRI plans to further enhance product mix with new yogurt launches in the baby and functional categories. BREXIT worries seem fading away while new countries such as Italy and Germany come into the picture gradually on the PL segment.
  • Ice cream will be impacted in H1’20 leading to a FY top line decline in the tune of 3%as impulse spontaneous consumption is dented by lower inbound tourism.
  • Tax exemptions from subsidies will be in place till 2022 in the tune of €2-€3.4mn annually allowing for reduced effective tax rates.
  • We will revert with an update on the company incorporating latest developments. Remains OVERWEIGHT with projected FY’20 PE 12.9 and EV/EBITDA 8.3x. TP at €5.4/share.

ΚΡΙ – ΚΡΙ

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Q4

Q4

(%)

Sales

94.2

112.9

19.8% 

16.2

20.0

23.6% 

EBITDA

17.3

21.1

22.1% 

2.2

3.6

65.0% 

EBITDA Mrg

18.4% 

18.7% 

+36 bps 

13.7% 

18.3% 

+459 bps 

Net Income

10.1

15.0

48.4% 

-0.4

2.6

684.8% 

Net Mrg

10.7% 

13.3% 

+256 bps 

-2.7% 

12.9% 

+1,562 bps 

 

Terna Energy: On May 13, the company bought 8,000 own shares for a total consideration of €66.580K (€8.3225 avg price per share).

Fourlis: On May 13, the company bought 3,300 own shares at €3.3148/share for a total consideration of €10.939K. Fourlis now possesses 295,172 own shares or 0.5676% of share capital.

BRIQ PROPERTIES: On May 13, the company bought 3,000 own shares at €1.680/share for a total consideration of €6.721K. 

NBG: The bank will announce Q1’20 financial results on May 28 after market close. 

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

25/05 Elvalhalcor AGM, Dividend €0.03

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

27/05 Jumbo AGM, AUDIOVISUAL EGM change of corporate id

29/05 Intralot, AGM HELEX, AGM,

02/06 Dromeas AGM

04/04: Attica Bank AGM, Mytilineos AGM

10/06: Loulis Mills AGM

16/06 Cretan Plastics AGM

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

24/06 Hellenic Petroleum AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM, Quest Holdings AGM

27/06 Jumbo AGM Dividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM Intralot AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM

15/07 Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

17/07 Motor oil AGM

27/07 Varvaressos AGM

30/07 Trastor AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM 

Results Announcements

19/05   Fourlis Q1:20 | 20/05 Conf Call

22/05   Thesalloniki Water FY:19, Cretan Plastics FY:19

26/05   Athens Exchange Q1:20

28/05   Lamda Development Q1:20 NBG Q1:20

29/05   BYTE FY:19, Eurobank Q1:20

09/06   Quest Q1:20

30/05    Athens Water FY:19

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19

Kind Regards, 

Manos Chatzidakis – Head of Research 

cid:image001.jpg@01D5E586.C49A42C0

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478955

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email:  [email protected]