[1] Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μ/μ 8/5/2020

Daily Monitor

cid:image001.jpg@01D5E586.C49A42C008-05-2020

Stocks ended slightly up on stock picking, but trading activity remained subdued for another session. News that Greece’s top appeals court rejected Hard Rock’s claims for irregularities in the Hellinikon casino tender gave a push on Lamda Development and GEK-Terna shares. General share index added 0.3% to close at 602 points.  Notable movers were Lamda +7.9%, GEk_terna +7.2%, Aegean +4.7%, Mytilineos +2.8%. In contrast, CCHBC dropped 2.3%, as the bottler said that April sales and volumes declined 37.2% and 27.3% respectively.%. In total 50 stocks registered gains, 41 suffered losses and 22 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €41.5m, down from Wednesday’s €44.8 million.

We expect an upbeat session supported from foreign markets sentiment.

Agenda: Eurogroup, Moody’s rating on Greece, PPC: AGM.

  • Macros

Greece: Moody’s to review Greece’s credit rating tonight. Moody’s current rating on Greece at B1 with stable outlook (three notches below investment grade).

Greece/Eurogroup: Eurogroup to take place today with main issue on the agenda the credit line for pandemic-hit governments. Eurozone finance ministers hope to agree on Friday on the final details of credit lines from the ESM bailout fund for governments in need of cheap cash to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, so that the money can be available from June.  There is already agreement that the ESM should offer credit lines, with almost no strings attached, of around 2% of the requesting country’s GDP at the very attractive borrowing costs enjoyed by the ESM. The ministers have to agree on the maturity of such loans and exact pricing, and formalize the conditions attached – that the money is to be spent directly or indirectly on dealing with the health crisis that has put most EU countries in lockdowns. They also have to agree how long the standby credit line will be open for requests. Some officials said it depended on the likely length of the pandemic, and could be two to three years, with an option to extend.

AthEx April Stats: During April, the participation of Greek Retail Investors increased for the fifth consecutive month. Greek Retail Investors had significant inflows during the past month, as well as for the duration of the current year, indicating that they maintain a positive outlook regarding future movements. Market capitalization at the end of April was increased by 9.3% compared to the previous month. This is a direct result of the increase in prices, which can also be observed in the month to month increase of the ATHEX Composite Index (12.5%). Additionally, during the past month foreign investors had outflows of €54.88 mil., while Greek investors had inflows of €54.92m.

Transactions Value in April 2020 reached €1,022.76m decreased by 43.9% since the previous month when transactions value reached €1,822.71m. Compared to the same month of the previous year when transactions value was €1,115.68 million there was a decrease of 8.3%. International investors in April 2020 accounted for 46.6% of the transactions’ value (in the previous month they realized 52.5%, while in April 2019 they had accounted for 51.3% of the transactions’ value). Foreign investors in Market cap drop to 67.4% vs 68.2% a month ago.

Greece/Unemployment: Greece’s unemployment growth rate stood dropped slightly to 16.1% in February from the downwardly revised reading of 16.2% in January, seasonally adjusted data from statistics office of ELSTAT showed. In February 2019, the respective rate was 18.4%. The number of people out of work declined to some 745.9K, while the number of inactive persons reached 3.72mn. The number of unemployed decreased 14.4% and 0.8% y-o-y and m-o-m, respectively. Job seekers aged 15-24 years old, and women remained vulnerable, with jobless rate averaging 35.6% and 19.9% respectively.

Greece/Private Sector Arrears: Individuals and businesses’ new debts to the state rose by some €1bn m-o-m in February, data from the Independent Authority for Public Revenues showed. In the first two months of the year, unpaid tax obligations were €1.57bn. The number of state debtors stood close to 4 million. Same data revealed that some 1.27 million state debtors in February were under threat of confiscations of salaries, pensions and bank account contents in general. Total debt to the state amounted to €104.06bn.

Corporate

Mytilineos (Q1:20 trading update): Mytilineos reported a strong set of Q1:20 interims with profits rising 49.7% q-o-q, to 36.4 million euros and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization firming 24% to 80.6 million euros. Still, compared to the year-ago figure, profits declined 26.8% and EBITDA dropped 12.4%. Q1:20 turnover amounted to €532.7m vs. €513.9n for the corresponding period of 2019, resulting in an increase of 3.7%. In contrast, revenues dropped 25% compared to the previous quarter. The group said it retains a cash balance of 700 million euros and a total liquidity of around 1.5 billion euros. Net debt stood at 530 million euros, leading to a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.76, on a last twelve months (LTM) basis. Increase in net debt by €110m q-o-q is attributed to higher working capital and CapEx related to RES. In more details:

  • Results in the metallurgy segment were affected by lower alumina (-24% y-o-y )and aluminum (-9% y-o-y) prices, however the decline in raw material prices including natural gas prices seems that mitigated margin erosion.
  • In Q1:20 Power & Gas Business Unit, recorded increased profitability courtesy of the lower gas prices despite lower system demand by 1.8% to 13.45TWh, especially in 2nd half of March. Although the System Marginal Price (SMP) decreased by 25.9% to an average of €50.4/MWh, MYTILINEOS’ consumption profile, scale and access to competitive and diversified gas supply led to an increase of its clean spark spread for its thermal power plants by 55% vs the same quarter of last year.
  • Renewable energy electricity production increased by 17.5% compared to the previous first quarter, having more than 200MW in operation. Overall, electricity production of thermal and renewable units of Mytilineos amounted to 1.228TWh, representing almost 12% of the total electricity generation in the interconnected system. Adding also the operation of the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant of the Metallurgy sector, the respective percentage of MYTILINEOS goes up to 15%.
  • On the retail supply side, “Protergia” brand increased its market share in March 2020 to 6.5% and is steadily strengthening its presence, with its customer base now approaching a quarter of a million households and businesses in electricity and natural gas.
  • The Renewable and Storage Development (RSD) Business Unit made a separate Business Unit in January 2020. The execution of the projects of RSD continued uninterrupted in countries like Spain, UK, Chile and Kazakhstan. Moreover, in the Q1:20, the RSD BU concluded its first solar development project sale, a group of operational solar power parks in Northern & Central Greece totaling 47MW for a total consideration of €45.8m. Said transaction is the first out of a total pipeline of 600MW in Solar projects to be developed, constructed and disposed within the next 18-24 months. The RSD’s current signed backlog of 3rd party EPC projects amounts to €155m, with another €160m in the final phases of contracting.

Overall a satisfactory start for the group considering the adverse trends in LME prices and EPC soft performance. On our estimates the Group could deliver FY:20 EBITDA in the tune of €270m which implies a rather cheap valuation of 5.5x EV/EBITDA. We see significant room for upside and we like the stock at current levels.

MYTILINEOS

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Sales

513,900

532,700

3.7%

EBITDA

92,000

80,600

-12.4%

EBITDA Mrg

17.9%

15.1%

-277 bps

Net Income

49,700

36,400

-26.8%

Net Mrg

9.7%

6.8%

-284 bps

Lamda Development: Greece’s top administrative court, the Council of State, has for a second time rejected an appeal by Hard Rock International against its exclusion from the tender for the Elliniko casino permit. The US company had cited irregularities in the procedure as well as problems with the rival bid by the consortium of Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment and its Greek partner GEK Terna, which is the sole bidder to have been short-listed. This ruling ends the legal battle over the casino license and allows the Hellenic Gaming Commission (EEEP) to continue the assessment of the only remaining offer.

Coca Cola Hellenic (Q1:20 Trading Update): Coca-Cola HBC reported a 3.1% y-o-y increase in its first quarter volume growth, as strong trading in January and February offset weaker results in March “as government lockdowns severely impacted the out-of-home channel.” First quarter FX-neutral revenue declined 1.2% of 0.5% adjusted for comparable y-o-y trading days and Bambi acquisition .The bottler said that in April, with all operating markets in lockdown apart from Belarus , FX-neutral revenue fell 37.2% and volumes -27.3%.

FX-neutral revenue per case declined by 4.1% driven by negative country mix from strong growth in Nigeria following prior-year pricing actions (-2.2pp impact), the discontinuation of Lavazza Coffee (-0.8pp impact) as well as a shift in channel and pack mix caused by significantly reduced volumes in the out-of-home channel, growth in discounters and supermarkets, and a shift into large format packs in March, the bottler said in its trading update.

Established markets volumes declined 5.5%, developing markets volumes were down by 1.8%, while emerging markets volumes increased by 8.1%, with continued growth in most markets and double-digit volume growth in Nigeria which entered lockdown after Q1 completion.  Looking ahead, CCHBC said that anticipated combined net impact of FX and raw materials for 2020 remain unchanged and benefits from lower commodity costs offset weaker FX. The company decided upon decisive actions to be taken to reduce costs and re-prioritize investments: 2020 discretionary expenditure is cut by over €100mn vs initial plan, cash capex cut by over €100mn or 20% of initial plan €500mn.

Aegean Air: Reportedly Aegean secured from the four systemic banks a € 120 million financing line. Same press states that it is not yet known whether the company has withdrawn part of the amount. Aegean CEO Eftychis Vasilakis had recently stated that he expects a comprehensive employment support program from the state, so that the company is able to support its employees more effectively.

Sarantis: AGM clears FY 2019 dividend distribution of gross €0.1604814 or €0.16701 adjusted for 2,731,600 total treasury stock. Ex dividend date is set on May 11 with payment concluded on May 18.

Fourlis: On May 6, the company bought 21,000 own shares at €3.3653/share for a total consideration of €70.671K. Total treasury stock now stands at 0.5095% of share capital (264,981 shares).

TRASTOR REIC: The company concluded the acquisition of an office premises in Athens northern suburbs 0f 3,716sqm for a total consideration €6.35mn.

BRIQ PROPERTIES: On May 6 the company bought 3,700 own shares for a total consideration of €6.23K (€1.684/share).

OTE: The company bought on May 6 56,368 own shares at €11.7367/share for a total consideration of €661.579K. Treasury stock now stands at 2,306,193 shares or 0.49% of share capital.

Terna Energy: On May 6, the company bought 23,598 own shares for a total consideration of €195.121K (€8.2685 avg price per share).

  • Other Results: 

HAIDEMENOS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

19,675

17,518

-11.0%

EBITDA

1,807

1,046

-42.1%

EBITDA Mrg

9.2%

6.0%

-321 bps

Net Income

-364

-1

99.9%

Net Mrg

-1.9%

0.0%

+185 bps

 

LAVIPHARM

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

34,058

37,200

9.2%

EBITDA

6,196

5,257

-15.2%

EBITDA Mrg

18.2%

14.1%

-406 bps

Net Income

1,249

5,300

324.3%

Net Mrg

3.7%

14.2%

+1,058 bps

  •  AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

12/05 Entersoft: EGM, stock split 5:1.

14/05 Titan: EGM

25/05 Elvalhalcor AGM, Dividend €0.03

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

27/05 Jumbo AGM, AUDIOVISUAL EGM change of corporate id

29/05 Intralot, AGM HELEX, AGM, Mytilineos AGM

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM

27/06 Jumbo AGM Dividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM

15/07 Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

27/07 Varvaresson AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM 

  • Results Announcements

13/05   Titan Q1:20. Hellenic Petroleum Q1:20, KRI- KRI FY:19, IPTO FY:19

14/05   HTO Q1:20, Titan Q1:20 Conference Call

19/05   Fourlis Q1:20 | 20/05 Conf Call

22/05   Motor Oil Q1:20, Thesalloniki Water FY:19

28/05   Lamda Development Q1:20

29/05   BYTE FY:19

06/06   Quest Q1:20

30/05    Athens Water FY:19

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19

Stay safe!

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of Research 

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